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The Third Industrial Revolution

Pub: 2011
#: 1504b

Jeremy Rifkin


The Third Industrial Revolution


  1. Introduction:
  2. The real economics crisis that everyone missed:
  3. A new narrative:
  4. Turning theory to practice:
  5. Distributed capitalism:
  6. Beyond right and left:
  7. From globalization to continentalization:
  8. Retiring Adam Smith:
  9. A classroom makeover:
  10. Morphing from the industrial to the collborative era:
  1. 序文:
  2. 誰も気づかない真の経済危機:
  3. 新たな物語:
  4. 理論から実践へ:
  5. 分散資本主義:
  6. 左右対立を超えて:
  7. グローバリゼーションから大陸主義へ:
  8. アダムスミスの引退:
  9. クラスルームの改装:
  10. 産業時代から協働の時代へ:
Carbon era; Global peak oil production; Entropy bill; 20-20-20 by 2020; TIR Infrastructure; Silo effect; Nuclear meltdown; San Antonio; Pennsylvania Railroad; Distributed manufacturing; Pangaea; Biosphere; Rethinking GDP; TIR curriculum; Rethinking work;
  • 1945-born dear old writer challenges to desribe post-Carbon age.
  • Jeremy Rifkinの最新書

0. Intoroduction:

  • Indutrial civilization is at a crossroads: Oil that makes up the industrial way of life is sunsetting.
    • Unemployment is rising to dangerous levels
    • Government, business and consumers are awash in a debt.
    • 1/7 of world population are starving.
    • Climate change destabilizes ecosystems.
  • The Third Industrial Revolution (TIR) is the last of the great Industrial Revolutions.
    • collaborative peer
    • Internet technology
    • renewable energies; post-carbon era
    • not-for-profit civil society

0. 序文:

  • 第三次産業革命(TIR)

The real economic crisis everyone missed:

  • The Boston Oil Party on Dec. 16, 1973: 200 anniversary of the famed Boston Tea Party.
    • Gasoline prices had double in just a few weeks.
    • Oil shock: $3/barrel to $11.65
    • the right to cheap oil and auto mobility
    • 28 years old in 1973 (born 1945):
    • the New Left Movement pursuing social justice, equality and peace.
    • 'Make the oil companies pay', 'Down with big oil', Long live the American Revolution', and 'Impeach Exxon'.
  • July 2008: $147/barrel
  • >Top Carbon Era: Global economy dependent on oil:
    • Food in petrochemical fertilizers & pesticide
    • cement, plastic, pharmaceutical, synthetic fibers are made of fossil fuels.
    • 40% of human race live on $2/day
  • Economic meltdown:
  • Global peak oil production per capita:
    • US oil production peaked in 1970 and began its long decline.
    • World oil production peak; 2010-2020 or at most 2025-2035.
    • IEA reports; in 2006, 70M bpd (barrels per day)
    • $8T is needed for next 25 years 1) to pump up difficult-to-capture from existing field, 2) open up less promising fields already discovered, and 3) to search for new fields.
  • 1979: the height of the Second Industrial Revolution.
    • 1956 US: Interstate Highway Act
    • 1968 Japan: Tomei Highway
    • New innovation corridors; Silicon Valley, Route 128 in Boston, and Interstate 495 in Washington
  • Oil imports in rich 34 OECD counties; $200B to $790B in 2010.
    • Oil imports in 2010: EU $70B, US$72B, Japan$172
  • Output per head in 1970 - 2009:
    • China from 3% to 19%, then will approach 70% by 2030; Chinese economy would be 3 times the size of US, and larger than US+EU.
    • India 3 to 7% of US.
    • Japan; 70% in 1970s and 90% by 1990.
    • Ben Bernake speech: emerging countries' output 41% higher than 2005; China 70% and India 55% higher.
  • This trend throttles up again oil price to $150/bbl
    • political unrest in ME
    • end of authoritarian governments and centralized energy regime.
  • Collapse of Wall Street: declaration of the Second Industrial Revolution
    • Credit bubble and financial crisis
    • by mid 1990s; bankruptcies were at record high.
    • by 2002, bankruptcies had soared to 1.5M
    • 2007: real estate bubble burst
    • Sep. 2008: Lehman Brothers wen under; then AIG.
    • bailing out Wall Street financial institution to the tune of $700B; simply 'too big to fail'
    • real unemployment ration; reaching 10% by end of 2009; 16.6% counting aged workers and giving up to look for working; since the Great Depression in 1930s.
    • accumulated household debt; $14T
    • 'negative savings'
    • gross liabilities of US financial sector: 21% of GDP in 1980 to 116% by 2007
  • >Top Entropy bill for the industrial age:
    • spent energy - entropy bill - blocks the sun's radiant heat from escaping the planet.
    • COP15 2009 Copenhagen: (COP=Conference Of the Parties); 192 nations
    • 1.5 - 3.5ºC shift could lead to a mass extinction of plats and animal life in less than 100 years.
      • we may be already in the early stages of a mass extinction event.
      • 1ºC increase leads to 7% increase in the mositure-holding capacity of the atmosphere; with more intense precipitation, but a reduction in duration or frequency, causing more floods and longer period of draught.
      • Arctic; 75% less summer ice cover by 2050.
    • 350 ppm level
    • We has experienced five times of mass extinction in 450M years; it took about 10M years to recover.
    • 25% of the plant's land surface if forested; a sudden loss of trees would wreak havoc on animal life.
    • permafrost coat melts; dramatic rise in temperature; releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in a few short decades.
    • Conclusion: vcxzCO2 will need to be reduced from current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm or less.
  • Nuclear power:
    • Most of the world stopped building nuclear power plants in 1980s after 1979 accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania and 1986 meltdown at Chernobyl in Russia.
    • Partial meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power plats in 2011 touched off a political earthquake around the world, putting on hold all plans to build new nuclear power plants, with long-term prospects of a resurrection of this 20C technology.
    • Nuclear power was never a clean energy source; Radioactive materials and waste have always posed a serious threat to human health, fellow creatures, and the environment.
  • The Tea Party:
    • 'Drill, bay, drill' slogan: Drilling for more oil won't get us out of the crisis because oil is the crisis.
    • The reality is that oil-based Second Industrial Revolution is aging and will never ebound to tis former glory.

1. 定義と目的:

Public debt % against GDP
  2013 2014
Japan 227 232
Italy 146 147
France 113 116
UK 107 110
US 104 106
Canada 97 97
Germany 86 83
  • カーボン時代
  • 一人当たり石油生産のピーク:
    • 米国:1970
    • 世界:2010-2035
    • IEA予測:2006


  • 1979: 第二次産業革命のピーク


  • OECDによる石油輸入
  • 一人当たり生産性


  • 再度、石油高騰予測


  • エントロピービル


  • EPR=Energy Payback Ratio: エネルギー投資効率
  • Well-to-Wheel分析
    =Energy Chain Cycle分析=環境効率分析
  • Well-to-Tank + Tank-to-Wheel
  • Co2 Trend: around 400 ppm(2015) by CGER
  • CO2 emission (2013)
    1.408B ton (+10.8% 1990 ratio)
  • Kyoto Protocol (COP3)





2.  A new narrative:

  • The economy is always a confidence game; backed up public trust; compelling story of a new economic vision for the world
    • Obaba's green economy: the federal government has committed:
      • $11.6B for energy efficiency; $6.5B for renewable energy generation; $4.4B for grid modernization; $2 for battery technology for electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles.
    • Infrastructure is akin to a living system: Communication technology is nervous system; energy the blood circulating system.
    • 19C: First Industrial Revolution: 1) steam engine, 2) rail & factory economy, 3) printing machine and public schools
    • 20C: Second Industrial Revolution: 1) oil-powered internal combustion engine, and cars, 2) highway, 3) telephone, radio, and TV
    • 21C: Third Industrial Revolution:
      • 1) shifting to renewable energy,
      • 2) micro-power plants on site
      • 3) deploying hydrogen and other storage technologies
      • 4) using Internet to transform the power grid
      • 5) electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles that can buy and sell electricity on a smart grid
  • Economics of green energy:
    • EU: 1/3 of its electricity from green sources by 2020
    • Cost of PV electricity declines 8% a year, halving the cost every eight years.
      • Solar and wind installations are doubling every two years; following the same trajectory as PC and Internet over the next two decades.
    • Government subsidies and favoritism artificially prop up the aging energy sector, giving it an unfair advantage over the new green energy industries.
    • Scientific American; if only 2.5% in SW of US were converted to electricity, it would equal to the nation's total electricity consumption in 2006.
    • Geothermal energy; increased by 20% 2005-2010.
    • Biomass; fuel cops, forestry waste, and municipal garbage; World bioenergy potential is large enough to meet the global energy demand in 2050.
  • Feed-in-tariff:
    • Solar/Wind/Hydro/Geothermal/Biomass/Ocean wave & tide (SwHgBo)
    • sell to the grid at a premium price above market value.
    • generate mor jobs; 260K jobs in Germany in 2003
    • fossil fuels and uranium are elite energies and only found in certain regions, while renewable energies are everywhere.
  • >Top 20-20-20 by 2020 Formula:
    • EU is readying 20-20-20 agenda: calling fro 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, based on 1990 emission levels; 20% increase in energy efficiency by the same year; and 20% increase in the deployment of renewable energies by 2020.
    • TIR Infrastructure: comprehensive approach to usher in TIR; including 1) Construction Technology Platform, 2) SmartGrids Platform, 3) various renewable energy platforms, 4) hydrogen and fuel cell technology platform, 5) European Road and Rail Transport Platforms, 6) Sustainable Chemistry Platform, 7) and so on.
  • The Silo Effect:
    • EU and government everywhere were toying with green pilot projects and becoming bogged down in siloed initiative, seemingly unable to move beyond them.
      • what was missing was a compelling narrative that could tell the story of a new economic revolution.
  • German leadership:
    • Angela Merkel; had been the environmental minister in Kohl's government, and was physicist.
    • She said, "Germany is a federation of regions. TIR fits German politics, because of its distributed and collaborative nature."
    • Green Party was not part of the governing coalition, it had played a prophetic role in German politics for more than two decades.
    • Merkel's presidency of European Council propelling EU to the forefront of a new, sustainable economic and environmental agenda.

2. 新たな物語:

  • オバマのGreen economy



  • Green energy経済


  • FIT


  • 20-20-20 by 2020政策目標


  • サイロ効果


  • ドイツのリーダーシップ
  • A. メルケル首相
  • FIT


3. Turning theory to practice:

  • Sep. 2008:
    • It was a very hot summer - 12th hottest on record. Climatologists warned that the plant was entering a new phase.
    • In July, the price of oil had hit a peak of $147/bbl
    • US banking community; hemorrhaging from bad loans in the subprime mortgage market.
  • Human species:
    • consume 31% of the net primary production on Earth; we only make 0.5% of the total biomass of the planet.
  • Ancient Rome:
    • population more than 1M.
    • London became the first 1M modern city in 1820.
    • By 1900 11 million cities; by 1950 75 million cities; 191 million cities in 1976; currently more than 483 million cities, and 364K babies are born every day on Earth.
    • Ancient Rome increasingly relying on agricultural land across the Mediterranean to subsidize the luxurious life styles of the rich; agriculture made up over 90% revenue.
    • By 3C, soil depletion in North Africa and across the Mediterranean let to mas depopulation and abandonment of agricultural lands.
    • One-powerful Roman armies, then ill-clad and poorly armed, spending more time scavenging for food than protecting the empire.
    • The city of Rome dwindled to less than 100K people living atop the rubble.
    • Try to imagine 1000 Romes forty years from now; it boggles the mind and it is unsustainable.
    • We need to consider how best to lower our population and develop sustainable urban environments that use energy and resources more efficiently, pollute less.
  • >Top A nuclear meltdown or debacle: (supplemented by Wikipedia, 2015)
    • Sep. 2007: NRG Energy of San Antonia applied NRC to build two new Toshiba ABWRs (Advanced Boiling Water Rector, 2.7GW) at the South Texas Nuclear Project site. (first full application since 1979 TMI accident). The total cost estimated $13B with financing.
    • Oct. 2009, Toshiba informed that the cost would be $4B more. As a result, NRG Energy to reduce CPS Energy (City Public Service)'s stake in the new units from 50% to 7.625%.
    • Oct. 2010, TEPCO had participated; approximately 18% ownership, or 0.5GW of generation capacity, subject to loan guarantee from USDoE.
    • Apr. 2011, NRG Energy announced they had decided to abandon the permitting process on the two new units. NRG attributed the cancellation to the ongoing expenses and slow permitting process. (TEPCO's Fukushima nuclear accident were also key factors) NRG has written off its investment of $331M in the project.
    • Job creation: a new generation of nuclear power plants could create 70K new jobs. (G. Bush). But it requires only 800 full-time workers.
    • Energy growth projection: Utilities have long counted on load growth and annual sales growth between 1-2%. This has remained constant fro 45 of the last 58 years. Consumers begin using less energy and producing more of their own power. there will be a noticeable decline in demand.
  • >Top San Antonio city and utilities are getting back in the saddle: toward TIR economy
    • Energy efficiency program; already save 142MW reduction in electricity in the past 2 years, and a target of 771MW reduction by 2020.
    • Renewable energy: 1500MW by 2020.
    • Smart grid; 40K smart meters across the metropolitan region in 2 years.
    • Power charging station; agreed with GM
  • Utrecht, Netherlands:
    • Utrecht needs to expand its metropolitan are and build out new suburban communities to meet its demographic needs over the next 20 years.
    • How to expand into new development while ensuring that older sector of the city are not left behind.
    • TIF (Tax Increment Financing): revenue generated from property taxes in the newly developed areas to finance urban renewal projects in the older sectors of the city; Robin Hood scheme - stealing from the rich and giving to the poor.
    • Energy financing; would ultimately benefit both the rich and the poor.
    • Comprehensive energy audits of all building in Utrecht; public building, then residential and commercial buildings.
    • Collaborative effort, replacing 'Not in my backyard':
      All of the red buildings can be conjoined, or all of the yellow building in a neighborhood can be combined; ESCOs (Energy Service Cos) can pol a cluster of buildings together and offer reduced price for retrofitting.
    • TIR changes more than our energy regime; distributed firms coming together in collaborative business relationships embedded in networks than function more like ecosystems than markets.


  • 2008/9
  • 人類


  • 古代ローマ帝国




  • San Antonioの原子力計画
  • 東芝ABWR2基提案






  • オランダUtrecht
  • TIFへの挑戦

4. Distributed Capitalism:

  • Railroad: prototype of the centralized business enterprises.
    • 1891: Pennsylvania Railroad employed 110K workers, while US military 39.4K men in arms;
    • 1893: total expenditure of the Pennsylvania Railroad were $95.5M, nearly 25% of US government; Revenue of PR were $135.1M, while the government $385.8M; PR was only one of seven railroad groups that controlled 2/3 of the rail traffic in US.
    • big, centralized, top-down bureaucratic organization: equipped with the communication tool; modern book-keeping, bills of lading, invoices, checks, and schedules.
    • owned ancillary businesses: coal mining; Pennsylvania Steel Works Co.; telegraph (railroads relied on single tracks on which ran two-way traffic);
    • Frederick Taylor became the first management expert; efficiency principles (sine qua non); written instruction specifying not only what to be done but how and until what time it is to be done.
    • Education system; students learned never to challenge the teacher's authority. They were given daily work assignments. Their tests were standardized and their performance was measured by the speed and efficiency.
  • 1868 John D. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil Co. of Pennsylvania; controlled 90% of the refining operation in US.
    • 1911 founded Standard Oil to reorganize into smaller companies;
    • oil supply chain into a single integrated business; oil fields, pipelines, and refineries, transport and marketing of the products.
    • by 1929; dozens of car companies had narrowed to the big three; GM, Ford and Chrysler.
    • Telephone; AT&T seized the field of operation, becoming a virtual monopoly.
  • Distributed network:
    • Linux community; supported by global companies like Google, IBM, USP, Conoco, etc.
    • Wikipedia: 30 times the size of Britannica; 8th most visited site.
    • Social media networks: Facebook; Myspac
  • >Top Distributed manufacturing:
    • 3D Printing: additive manufacturing vs. subtractive manufacturing (which involved cutting down and paring off materials and attaching them together.); reduce logistics cost, with possibility of huge energy savings.
      • 3D Printing market: Within Technologies, Digital Forming, Shape Ways, Rapid Quality Manufacturing, and Stratasys
    • SME to challenge and potentially out-compete the giant manufacturing companies.
    • marketing costs were high and favored giant firms who could afford to devote funds to marketing.
    • human-to-human relationship; personalization of relationships between seller and buyer; anonymous workforces can't compete with the kind of intimate one-to-one relationship between artisan and patron (empathic consciousness)
    • Etsy: online small craft producers
    • Microfinance operation; Grameen Bank, ASA, EKI; more than 65B in loans to 100M borrowers in poorest regions; has trained thousands of women as technicians, providing them with employment, assuring vocation expertise.
    • Car sharing business: Zipcar founded in 2000, growing 30%/year
  • Role of global companies:
    • from primary producers and distributors to aggregator; to coordinate and manage the multiple networks that move commerce and trade across the value chain.
    • TOMS shoes; both profit-making and nonprofit component; for every pair of shes sold, his nonprofit subsidiary Friends of TOMS, distributes a pair of shoes free to a child in need somewhere in the world. (One-to-One Movement)
  • A new narrative; TIR visionaries:
    • We live by stories, which are always about the relationship and interactions between characters.
    • Just as individual words don't tell a tale, individual technologies, product lines, and services don't make a new economic narrative.
    • I's when we discover how they all relate to each other and create a new economic conversation that heads star to turn.
    • TIR is not only changing the way we do business, but also they way we think about politics. The struggle of SIR and TIR.

4. 分散資本主義:

  • 米国の鉄道


  • 米国の石油産業



  • 分散ネットワークの事例


  • 分散生産


  • 3Dプリンタ





  • TIRに向けての新たな物語→革命

5. Beyond right and left:

  • Ideology is disappearing. Younger generations are less about right vs. left and more about centralized and authoritarian vs. distributed and collaborative.
  • Economics of nuclear plants:
    • In the world there are only 442 nuclear reactors, generating about 6% of total energy.
    • To have even a minimal impact on climate change, nuclear power would have to take up 20% of the world energy generation.
    • That would mean replacing every aging nuclear power plant and building additional 1000 plants.
    • To accomplish this, it needs to construct 3 new plants every 30 days for the next 40 years - a total of about 1500 plants at a cost of $12T. ($8B/plant)
    • Is this plan politically practical and commercially feasible?
    • Calculation: construction cost = $8B/plant (Cf. Cost of Olkluoto plant 1.6GW $15B)
  • Obama's green energy policy:
    • even more deeply committed to 1) bring back nuclear power, 2) offshore oil drilling, 3) clean up coal emission; reflecting the top-down organizational thinking.
  • Powerful 600 lobbyists in Washington:
    • 3/4 represent oil and gas companies; revolving door, with energy executives and government officials changing hats and desks.
    • federal energy subsidies (2002-2008); $72B for fossil fuel, $29B fro renewable energy.
    • NY Times/CBS poll; 14% of Tea Party supporters believe the global warming is an environmental problem, compared to 50% of the general public.
    • 'Dirty rich': in 1982 38% of the wealthiest in Forbes 400 came out of the oil industry, only 12% out of technology and finance.; in 2006 changed into 12% and 36% respectively. (the old energy lobby)

5. 左右対立を超えて:

  • Investment cost over time by site ($/kW) 2013 price:
    source: World Nuclear News


  • Demolition period of a nuclear plant: 100 - 1000 years. (UK's case: 0.235GW Gas Cooled Reactor: started 1991, it will take 90 years at least. German Greifswald case: stopped in 1990. demolition has started from 1995.

6. From globalization to continetalization:

  • Return to Pangaea:
    • Pangaea; 200M years ago, in the Mesozoic era, the continents were connected in one extended landmass.
    • Continental market: EU, ASEAN, African Union, UNASUR (Union of South American nations), and NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)
    • Bering Strait tunnel (102km); cost would be $10-12B; easier to construct deep-ocean tunnel.
    • Suez canal 163km; began in 1859 and completed just 10 years later.
    • Panama canal; began 1880s; US restarted in 1904 and completed just 10 years later.
  • EU, the first continental union:
    • In 1951: European Coal and Steel Community Pact
    • In 1957: EEC; Treaty of Rome signed by France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxemburg.
    • In 1957: Euratom,
    • 2013/7: 28 member countries; population 500M, area 4.38M sq.km; GDP $16.4T
  • ASEAN:
    • In 1967: ASEAN5: Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia
    • By 1999: ASEAN10: Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia
    • 2007: Cebu Philippines East Asian Summit; Declaration on East Asian Energy Security; 'Ten nations, one community'
  • AU (African Union):
    • In 2002, 54 African nations launched the African Union (AU), aiming political and socioeconomic integration of the continent.
    • In 2008, EU an AU entered into Africa-Europe Energy Partnership (AEEP) to promote renewable energy, and creating master plan for Africa.
    • 7/10 in Sub-Saharan Africa have no access to electricity, while others irregular access.
    • Africa could leap from into TIR without the pain of transitionally out of SIR.
    • Small solar panel; small biogas; small hydroelectric dams; but still missing is a smart, distributed power grid.
  • UNASUR (South American Union):
    • In 1969, Andean Community of Nations; made up of Bolivia Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, ad Peru.
    • In 1991, Mercosur (Mercado Común del Sur) founded comprising Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, were designed to create a common free-trade area.
    • In 2008, Union of South American Nations (UNASUR, Unión de Naciones Suramericanas) which absorbs Mercosur and Andean Community, and includes Guyana, Suriname, and Venezuela covers 17.7M sq.km and 388M population, and GDP $4T.
    • Hugo Chavez of Venezuela read J. Rifkin's 'The Hydrogen Economy'
  • ME preparing a post-oil era:
    • ME saying, "My grandfather rode a camel, my farther drove a car, I travel on a jet, and my grandchild will ride a camel."
    • Abu Dhabi investing a new city called Masdar, a post-carbon city.
    • 'Don't delay until the oil spigot runs dry because then it will be too late.'
  • NAFTA (North American Union); North American Free Trade Agreement:
    • Canadians suspect that NAFTA is a front for 21C, high-tech American colonialism designed to grab hold of Canada's rich resources and remake its citizenry in the US image.
    • Canada also sports a highly educated workforce and relatively low production costs.
    • American employers sa e on health-care costs by locating production facilities in Canada or by outsourcing to Canadian firms because workers in Canada are covered by national health-care insurance.
    • Continantalization flattens national sovereignty and not only create new economic opportunity, but even breed new cultural and political identities.
  • >Top From Geopolitics to Biosphere politics:
    • Continental ear will slowly transform international relations from geopolitics to biosphere politics.
    • think of the biosphere as operating like a living organism whose various chemical flows and biological systems are continuously interacting with one another in a myriad of subtle feedback loops that allow life to flourish on this tiny oasis in the universe.

6. グローバリゼーションから大陸主義へ;

  • パンゲアへの会期


  • EU








  • AU




7. Retiring Adam Smith:

  • Retiring Adam Smith:
    • Just as the laws of gravity govern the universe, an invisible hand rules over the affairs of the marketplace.
    • Newton's laws of matter in motion don't really help us understand much about how economic activity operates; because they don't take into consideration the passage of time and irreversibility of events.
  • Entropy: >'Entropy' by J. Rifkin, 1980
    • In 1868, Rudolph Clausius, German scientist coined the term entropy.
    • The first thermodynamics state that the total energy content of he universe is constant (conservation law), and the total entropy is continuously increasing.
    • Thermodynamic systems can be divided into three types:
      • Open system; exchanges both energy and matter
      • Closed system; exchanges energy but not matter.
      • Isolated system; exchanges neither matter nor energy.
      • The Earth, in relation to the solar system, is a relatively closed system, but except for an occasional meteorite and cosmic dust, it receives very little matter from the surrounding universe.
      • Fossil fuel is a finite resources that is quickly depleting and will likely never reappear on Earth; fossil fuel were formed over million s of years from the anaerobic decomposition of dead organisms.
  • Price of oil:
    • for most of 20C, the price of oil was so low that little attention was given to thermodynamic efficiency in the production and distribution of goods and services.
    • This has now changed. Peak oil per capita and global peak oil production have been reached, forcing a dramatic rise in the price of energy.
    • The accumulated entropic emission of industrial-based CO2 has altered the temperature of the planet with dramatic effects on agriculture and infrastructure.
    • From here on, productivity is going to have to be measured in a way that takes into account both thermodynamic efficiencies as well as entropic consequences.
  • Externalities; or Entropy bill
    • Economists often retort that they do take the entropy bill into consideration by factoring in what they call 'negative externalities,' or deleterious effects the market activity has on third parties not directly involved in the exchange process.
    • The problem is that the full cost over time to third parties, society as a whole, the environment, and future generations is never taken into account.
  • Food Chain:
    • G. Tyler Miller: Food chain; pointing out in devouring prey about 80-90% of the energy is simply wasted and lost as heat to the envrionment. Only 10-20% of the energy of the prey is absorbed by the predator.
      • 300 trout are required to support one man for a year.
      • The trout must consume 90,000 frogs, which must consume 27M grasshoppers, which live of of 1,000 tons of grass.
  • New indices:
    • Quality-of-life economic index models; well-being of society, including such as infant mortality, longevity of life, availability of health coverage, level of education attainment, average weekly earnings, eradication of poverty, income inequality, affordability of housing, cleanliness of environment, biodiversity, decrease in crime, amount of leisure time, and so on.
  • >Top Rethinking GDP:
    • From thermodynamic point of view: GDP as a measure of the welth that a coutry generates each year; temporary energy value embedded in the goods or serviced produced at the expense of the diminution of the available energy reserves and an acuumulation of entropic waste.
    • Human industriousness could creat a utopian paradise?; it might result in a degraded environment and a dark future for unborn generations would have been unfathomable.
    • If we are to survive and proper as a species, we will need to rethink our concepts of space and time; shift from productivity to generativity, and from efficiency to sustainability
    • 24/7 electricity illumination, round-the-clock Internet communication, jet travel, shift work had dislodged us from our primordial biological clocks.
    • TIR brings us back into the sunlight. By relying on the energy flows that cross the Earth's biosphere, we reconnect to the rhythms and periodicity of the planet.
    • we need to revise out ideas about productivity, understanding the notion of debt and how best to balance our production and consumption budgets with nature's own, reexaming our notion about property relations, reevaluation finance capital vs. social capital.
  • Entropic debt:
    • For most of 20C, the oil price was so low that litten attention was given to thermodynamic efficiency in production and distribution of goods and services. There was littel concern about entropic flow. This has now changed.
    • Peak oil per capita anad global peak oil production have been reached, forcing a dramatic rise in the price of energy.
    • At the same time, the acuumulated entropic emission into the atmosphere has altered the temperature of the planet. The entropic debt from past economic activity is moutning at a rate that far exceeds the biosphere's abilituy to absorb it.
    • 'Negative exgternalities'; deleterious effects that market activity has on third parties not directly invlvd in the exhange process.
  • Unlimited supplyof green energy:
    • we might be more inclined to convert the Earth's limited low-entropy matter into goods at an ever-accelerating rate, increasing the entropic flow and accumulating more matter chaos.
    • the most important lesson is how to budge our consumption patterns to conform with nature's recycling schedules.
  • Energy efficiency:
    • The current electricity generation and transmission sustm only operates at an efficiency of 32%; unchanged since 1960.
    • US wastes in energy in the production of electricity is more thatn Japan uses to power its enetire economy.
  • 14C Schemata:
    • as late as 14C Europe, lords and serfs belonged to the land, rather than the land belonging to the people. In the Christian schemata, God ruled over the whole of this creation and merely entrusten it to his emissaries on Earth. (The Great Chain of Being)
    • the concept of selling and buying land didn't take hold until the passage of the great Enclosure Acts in Tudor and Elizabethan England, making the very end o fthe feudal economy.
  • Share economy:
    • in a world where access begins to eclipse ownership and propety remains in the hand of the supplier, in the form of leases, rentals, time-shares, retainers and other temporal arrangements, the notion of sustainability becomes intimately attached to the bottom line.
    • the property of tha automaker from cradle to grave; making a vehcle that is durable, with low maintenance costs, and made of recyclable material, with low-carbon footprint.

7. アダム・スミスの引退:

  • エントロピー


  • 石油価格動向


  • エントロピー税

8. A classroom makeover:

  • TIR curriculum:
    • Curriculum will need to focus on advanced information, nano- and biotechnologies, earth sciences, ecology, and systems theory as well vocational skills, including manufacturing renewable energy, transforming building into mini power plants, installing hydrogen and other storage technologies, laying our intelligent utility network, etc.
      • Mythological consciousness: All forager-hunter societies were oral cultures.
      • Theological consciousness: Hydraulic agricultural civilization were organized around writing.
      • Ideological consciousness.: Print technology became communication medium to organize the myriad activities of the coal and steam-powered FIR.
      • Psychological consciousness: in 20C, electronic communication became command-and-control mechanism to manage SIR base of oil economy and automobile.
      • Biosphere consciousness; Creating infrastructure for TIR
  • Homo empathicus; Empathy
    • Empathy has evolved over history:
      • in forager-hunter societies, empathy rarely went beyond tribal blood ties.
      • in the hydraulic agricultural age, empathy extended past blood based on religious identification; fellow Christians, Muslims, and so on.
      • in modern nation-stage, like-minded national identities; Americans with Americans, Germans with Germans, ..
      • in TIR, empathy stretches beyond national boundaries to biosphere boundaries.
  • Biophilia:
    • Each is a unique being. Every creature has its own unrepeatable life journey, each day of which is full of opportunities and risks.

8. クラスルームの改装:


9. Morphing from the industrial to the collaborative era:

  • TIR is the last stage of the great industrial saga; it represents an interregnum between two periods of economic history,
  • In 1995-2002, more than 31M manufacturing jobs disappeared in he 20 largest economies, while productivity rose by 4.3% and global industrial production increased by 30%. The reality is that manufacturers can produce more goods with fewer workers.
    • Even China eliminated 15M factory jobs during the same period, or 15% of its entire workforce.
    • US steel industry: between 1982 and 2002;, US steel production grew from 75M tons to 102M, while the number of steel workers declined from 289K to 74K; as intelligent technology replaces mass human labor on the factory floor.
    • Even in the poorest countries, the cheapest workers are not as cheap or as efficient as the intelligent technology replacing them.
    • Secretaries, file clerks, bookkeepers, telephone operators, and bank tellers become virtually extinct.
    • Intelligent technology is taking over a multitude of jobs once performed by human begins; operating light rail, automated weapon systems, buying and selling on stock exchange.
    • new generation of robots will soon be coming; equipped with emotional and cognitive skills, able to respond to human queries.
  • >Top Rethinking work:
    • when the factories began to automate production, millions of blue-collar workers skilled up, and became part of the white-collar workforce in service industries health care, social work, entertainment, and travel and tourism.
    • rethinking work this time around is more akin to the great upheaval that ensued when millions of serfs were released from feudal systems and forced to become free agents and wager earners in a market economy.
    • There are four areas where people engage in work; the market, the government, the informal economy, and the civil society.
    • Civil society is where human beings creates social capital; religious and cultural organizations, education, research, health care, social services, sports, environmental groups, recreational activity.
  • The next 40 years:
    • The millennial generation and their children will need to be educated to work and live in both a industrial and collaborative economy.

9. 産業時代から協働の時代へ:

  • TIRは最後の産業革命
  • 1995-2002:生産性向上したが雇用は減少
  • 米国鉄鋼業は典型


  • 仕事の再考


  • 工場の自動化進展で雇用減が進展


  • 市場、政府、情報、社会関連の雇用進展」
  • 特に社会関連:健康、ソーシャルワーク、エンターテインメント、旅行、観光分野


  • 今後40年間の雇用




0: Intro 1: Crisis 2: Narrative 3: Practice 4: Distributed 5: Beyond 6: Continent 7: Smith 8: Makeover 9: Collabo

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