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Proliferation of EV may cause industrial distruptions

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2009

Kanzo Kobayashi (小林寛三)


Proliferation of EV may cause industrial disruptions


  1. Introduction:
  2. Big difference of power generation cost:
  3. Present and future of EV proliferation:
  4. Battery development for EV:
  5. Procurement of rare metals:
  6. Innovations related EV proliferation:
  7. Glossary:
  1. 序文:
  2. 発電コストの大きな隔たり:
  3. EV普及の現在と未来:
  4. EV用電池の開発:
  5. レアメタルの確保:
  6. EV普及に伴うイノベーション:
  7. 関連用語:
; BEV list; Chademo; C-rate; Drastic decreasing cost; EV Outlook; EV sales in 2038; intercalation; LCOE; LIB; NEV; PAS; Positive electrode; Smart summon; Solar power cost; Tesla; A. Yoshino; ZEV;

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • The summary of this thesis was reported as a lecture for NSSOL on 2019/10/4.
  • As the contents include wide range of topics, which are changing rapidly, it is worthwhile to summarize here updating some data as well as reviewing what is the essentials.
  • This theme may by my life-long works, because I have kept interest to watch these themes since joining at metal, energy and ICT divisions in Itochu Corp. since 1970, as well as encountered the change of driving environment by using EV from 2019.


  • 2019/10/4 NSSOLでの講演内容のレビュー。
  • 多岐に亘るテーマであり、再度本質を吟味したい。
  • 伊藤忠時代のエネルギーやIT部門の経験とEV乗りの現在とをつなぐテーマでもある。

>Top 1. Big difference of power generation cost:

  • Electricity in Japan is no-importing goods, which is mainly generated, transmitted, and distributed by domestic monopolized nine utility companies.
    • In 2011, serious disaster occurred in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plants of TEPCO.
    • In 2019, a bribery-like scandals are disclosed in connection with restart construction works of Takahama nuclear plants of KEPCO.
  • The latest electric power generation cost in Japan published by METI (2015) shows that of nuclear power plant is still ¥10.1, while ¥21.9 of wind power and ¥24.3-29.4 of solar power.
    • >Top On the other hand, LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) of IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency, established in 2009) estimates the cost of solar and wind will drastically decrease; i.e., solar PV at $0.048/kWh, and onshore wind at $0.045/kWh in 2020.
    • Why such a big difference occurs in the calculation of power generations between Japan and world?
      • Because, the calculation of power generation is reflected from domestic unique non-competitive factors, including cost of capital, various procedure for application (3.7 times)
    • Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA), 2018 states that
      "In most parts of the world today, renewables have become the lowest-cost source of new power generation. As costs continue to fall for solar and wind technologies, this will be true in a growing number of countries."
      • Global weighted-average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) all have been within the range of fossil fuel power generation costs.
      • Utility-scale solar PV projects commissioned in 2018 had LCOE of $0.085/kWh, around 13% lower than 2017, which has fallen by 77% between 2010 and 2018.
      • In 2018, China and US mostly expanded onshore wind power with 18.5GW and 6.8GW respectively.
      • New capacity of Solar PV added in 2018 were China (44GW), India (9GW), US (8GW), Japan (6GW), Australia and Germany (4GW).
  • >Top Formula of LCOE (Av. lifetime levelised cost of electricity generation)
  • LCOE=$\frac{\sum_{t=1}^{n}\frac{I_t+M_t+F_t}{(1+r)^t}}
    where: (all costs in 2018 US Dollar)
    $I_t$= investment expenditures in the year $t$
    $M_t$= operation & maintenance expenditure in the year $t$
    $F_t$= fuel expenditure in the year $t$
    $E_t$= electricity generated in the year $t$
    $r$= discount rate
    $n$ = economic life of the system

1. 発電コストの大きな隔たり:

  • IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018.


  • Power Generation Cost in Japan, METI 2015

  • Growth of power generation capacity in 2010-2016 and 2017-2040:

  • Growth of power generation by countries:

  • Cost per MWh and Renewable Tipping Point: by Carbon Tractor

>Top 2. Present and Future of EV Proliferation:

  • A century ago, human transportation had changed from horse to automobile.
  • Now 'Once a century revolution' is about to occur: from ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) to BEV (Battery EV).
    • >Top IEA publishes 'Global EV Outlook 2019' as the global energy issue.
    • EV proliferated less than 1% in 2015, which will be more than 50% in 2038.
    • The EV market is forecast; about $21.2B in 2016, will increase $918.5B in 2030 (43 times). (>Fig.)
    • Not only hardware of EV, but also software will also expand; such as autonomous cruising , connected with infrastructure, circulation of battery, and share economy.
      • The age of full automatic operation is approaching (2019). Tesla distributed version-10 software called 'Smart Summon', which can be called by a got-off driver in a parking lot.
    • EV related industries are attractive for ESG (Environment, Social, & Governance) investment
  • Car (Sedan) Sales in US:
    • Sales of TESLA (Model-3) is constant in US market (Nov. 2017 to May 2018), while other major brand like Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Toyota Lexus were overtaken. (>Fig.)
    • Global sales (>Fig.) totaled 2,018K in 2018, up 72% from 2017, with a market share of 2.1%. BEV: PHV ratio rose 69:31 in 2018, and 74 26 in 2019 H1.
    • EVcarsales
    • In newly sold cars in 2018, Norway 49.1% are EV+PHV (mostly EV), Iceland 19%, Sweden 8.2%, China 4.2%, UK (also EU) 2.5%, US 2.1% and Japan only 1.0%.
    • Market shares for new cars in Oslo, 2019/3/1: ZEV 77% (even PHV became out of date there); ZEV was sold only 8% in Oslo in 6 years ago.
  • Government incentives:
    • >Top China: NEV (New Energy Vehicle) policy; aiming 20% will be EV in 2025.
      • New NEV policy; subsidies will be zero in 2020, and support for NEV will converted to non-subsidized policies up to 2025.
      • The adjustment of 2019 subsidy policy not only encouraging high-tech power batteries but emphasized safety of the product. (energy density and safety are a pair of contradictions.)
      • Also the government will further support the whole industry chain (including battery recycling)
      • CATL and BYD accounted more than 60% of LIB shipments in 2018, with Japanese and Korean makers led by Panasonic, LG and Samsung SDI entering the Chinese market in 2019.
    • >Top US: ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) Regulation:
      • CARB (California Air Resources Board) adopted in 2012 has set CA on a path toward ZEV commercialization; requiring auto makers to produce a certain ratio of ZEVs (BEV, FCV, and PHV) based on the car sales in CA.
      • 4.5% in 2018 to 22% by 2025. Manufacturers are to produce vehicles, and each vehicle receives credits based on its electric driving range. Credits can be banked, traded and sold to other manufacturers.
  • >Top Tesla Inc.(TSLA NASDAQ)
    • Outline: established: 2003 at Palo Alto, CA; Elon Musk, CEO
    • EV sales: in 2008, 'Roadstar' was published, achieved 394km on single charge; accelerate form 0 to 60 miles (96km) in 4 second.
    • >Top Semiautonomous driving became available in 2014 on the Model-S.; now released V10 software called 'Smart Summon', which can be called without driver by the smartphone in the parking lot, etc.
    • Since 2012, Tesla built 'superchargers' in US and EU.
    • In 2015 Tesla released Model-X with max battery range of 475km; then in 2017 released more inexpensive Model-3 at $35K.
    • Statistics: Revenue; $11.8B→$21.5B/2018 (180%); Profit $△2.0B→$△0.98B
    • Giga Factory: NV in US to produce 20GWh, and Shanghai
    • Powerwall for solar PV panel, and storage system (Powerwall2 for home use and Powerpack for industry & utility storage system)

2. EV普及の現在と未来:

  • EV Sales Forecast (Daiwa Securities Co., Ltd.)

  • US Car (Sedan) Sales:


  • EV Sales by car makers in 2018:

  • Tesla社は、赤字決算でも、Gigafactoryなど先行投資実施中。中国からは100%外資を特別認可。
  • またEVに関する知的所有権を無償公開し、早期にEV市場を形成することに注力。
  • EVのみならず従来の屋根材に同様の形状の太陽光パネル(Powerwall) および蓄電システム(ホーム用Powerwall2および産業用Powerpack)などクリーンエネルギービジネスを展開中。

>Top 3. Battery development for EV:

  • EV is not new. Most cars in late 1800s and early 1900s ran on battery. At the turn of the century, there were three choices: 1) electric, steam and internal combustion (ICE) engine. Then most EV ran on Pb Acid batteries, and Edison felt that NiFe was superior.
    • The wealthy chose EV for its quiet and comfortable ride over the vibration, smell and maintenance-prone. EV did not require gear-changing and manually engine-cranking.
    • Then only good roads were in town, EV was used for local commuting.
    • In 1912 With the invention of starer engine, the market chose ICE and EV fell out of favor in 1920s.
  • Primary batteries are designed to be used until exhausted of energy; chemical reactions are not reversible.
  • History of Rechargeable battery development:
    • Improvements made since 1991 by Sony; but the capacity of Li+ during the last 20 years was only 8% per year unlike the Moore's law.
    • Secondary battery = rechargeable battery, which reverses chemical reactions in discharge process.
    • The oldest form was heavy Pb-Acid battery, containing liquid electrolyte, needs to ventilate H2 gas produced during overcharging.
    • Then, VRLA (valve regulated Pb-Acid battery) became popular in the automotive industry, which use immobilized sulfuric acid electrolyte.
    • Then, dry cell type rechargeable battery was developed, which are used in mobile phones and laptop computer; like NiCd, NiZn, NiMH (nickel metal hydride), and finally Li-ion cells.
      • Dry cell uses a paste electrolyte, which can be uses in any orientation without spilling.
      • common dry cell is Zn-Carbon battery, with having 1.5V. Ammonium chloride (or zinc chloride in some design) is used as electrolyte, and manganese dioxide as a depolarizer.
  • >Top Lithium-ion battery (LIB) is commonly used for portable electronics, EV, and aerospace.
    • History: >Fig.
      Importance advances started in 1970s by John Goodenough (Texas Univ.), M. Stanley Whittingham (NY Univ.), and Japanese Akira Yoshino (Asahi Kasei) (these three were awarded concurrently Nobel prize (Chemistry) in 2019/12/10)
      • Li is highly reactive, and reacts vigorously with water to form $LiOH$ and $H_2$ gas. Thus non-aqueous electrolyte is used, and a sealed container rigidly excludes moisture.
      • In 1970s: Stanly Whittingham used $TiS_2$ (titinium disulfide) as negative electrode and Li metal as positive elecgrode. When exposed to air, titinium disulfide reacts to form $H_2S$. Also, Li metal reacts with water, releasing $H_2$.
      • In 1979: John b. Goodenough and Koichi Mizushima used $LiCoO_2$ as positive electrode as a donor of $Li^{+}$
      • In early 1980s, the negative electrode was use in PAS (PolyAcenic Semiconductive material) discovered by Tokio Yamabe, using the discovery of conductive polymers by Hideki Shirakawa (2000 Nobel Prize).
      • In 1981: Sanyo Electric applied for a patent that graphite intercalation compound should be negative electrode.
      • In 1985: A. Yoshino used carbonaceous material into which $L^{+}$ could be inserted as one electrode, and $LiCoO_2$ as the other (intercalation). (This dramatically improved safety, enabled industrial-scale production.
      • Actually, Sanyo Electric (2009 merged by Panasonic) applied the patent 4 years earlier than Asahi Kasei. Why Sanyo was not awarded Nobel Prize? The point is supplier of $Li^{+}$: Sanyo's case is negative electrode, while Asahi Kasei Yoshino's case is postive elctrode.
    • During discharge, $Li^{+}$ moves from negative electrode through electrolyte to the positive electrode (anode) usually of graphite while $e^{-}$ flow through the external circuit in the same direction/
      • During charging, the reverse occurs with $L^{+}$ and $e^{-}$; move back into the negative electrode.
    • Structure of LIB:
      • Four components are decisively important: 1) positive electrode, 2) negative electrode, 3) electrolyte, and 4) separator
      • LIB uses lithium cobalt oxide as positive electrode (=cathode), commonly graphite as negative electrode (=anode); and electrolyte as conductor of Li+ is ethylene carbonate or diethyl carbonate.
        • The positive electrode is generally one of three materials; such as 1) layered lithium colbalt oxide (LCO), 2) a polyanion as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), or 3) spinel as lithium manganese oxide (LMO).
        • Depending on materials choices, the voltage, energy density, life, and safety can be changeable.
      • Non-aqueous electrode use hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), etc, considering voltage, energy density, life and safety of LIB.
      • During discharge, Li+ moves from negative electrode (usually graphite, C6) to the positive electrode through the electrolyte while e- flow through the external circuit in the same direction.
      • During discharging, the reverse occurs.
      • Positive electrode: $CoO_2+Li^{+}+e^{-} \rightleftharpoons LiCoO_2$
      • Negative electrode: $LiC_6 \rightleftharpoons C_6+Li^{+}+e^{-}$
      • The full reaction (left to right in discharging, right to left in charging):
        $LiC_6+CoO_2 \rightleftharpoons C_6+LiCoO_2$
      • $Co^{4+}→Co^{+3}$ reduces in discharge, the reverse oxidizing in charge.
    • >Top C-rate: defined as the current through the battery divided by the theoretical current draw under which the battery would deliver its normal capacity in one hour [unit $h^{-1}$].
      • standards of rechargeable batteries rate over 4-hour, 8-hour, or longer discharge time.
    • Use of LIB:
      • Japanese average home consumption is about 300kWh, or 10kWh/d; while Nissan Leaf contains 40 -62kWh (3-4 days electricity to home is available by V2H)
      • Cost of LIB is now around $230/kWh (in the case of Leaf); which will decline about $80/kWh.
      • The cost ratio in EV declines steadily (>Fig.), nearly half in 2016, and will be a quarter in 2025.
      • BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) forecasts the price of EV will be competitive with CEV in 2022.; which was in 2026 by 2017 forecast, and in 2024 by 2016; because of rapid decline of LIB cost.
    • Improvement of LIB:
      • 1) Life span: guarantees for 8 years or 160,000km (Leaf); hot climates accelerate capacity loss.
      • 2) Safety: similar fears occurred 150 years ago when steam boilers exploded and gasoline tanks burst. Battery Management System (BMS) assures.
      • 3) Cost: major drawback for a small car; BMS and warranty adds the cost.
      • 4) Performance: batteries are sensitive to hat and cold. Heat reduces the life, and cold lowers the performance. LIB should not be charged below 0ºC or at least -10ºC reducing charge current (0.1C).
      • 5) Specific energy: a battery generates only 1% of ICE; Gasoline yields 12kWh/1kg gasoline, while 150Wh/1kg battery. However, EV is 90% efficient while modern ICE 25%. Charging too fast at low temperature could cause dendrite growth.
      • 6) Specific power: EV has better torque and excellent acceleration than ICE.
      • Elon Musk's 10 requirements for battery breakthrough: 1) high specific energy for long runtimes, 2) high specific power for load currents, 3) affordable cost, 4) long life, 5) high safety, 6) wide operating range, 7) no toxicity, 8) fast charging, 9) low self-discharge and 10) long shelf life.
      • Cathode material are two categories: LiCoO2 vs. LiMn2O4
        • LiCoO2: high cost of Co and low thermal stability
        • LiMn2O4: low cost of Mn and longer-lasting battery.
        • LiFePO4: lost cost and excellent safety and high cycle durability, but low electrical conductivity.

3. EV用電池の開発:

  • Historical Innovation:
Year Inventor -electrode +electrode Voltage
1970s Whittengham Li metal TiS2 2V
1979 Goodenough Li metal LiCoO2 4V
1985 Yoshino LiC6 LiCoO2 4V
  • Structure of LIB: (Source: M. Fujita's Labo)



LIB cost


  • 電池部材メーカ:
住友金属鉱山 (Jp) Sepa-rator 旭化成 (Jp)
日亜化学工業 (Jp) 上海Energy (Cn)
Umicore SA(Belgium) 東レ (Jp)
厦門Tangusten (Cn) SK Innovation (Kr)
杉杉集団(Cn) 星源材質科技 (Cn)
三菱Chemical (Jp) Electro-lyte 三菱Chemical(Jp)
日立化成(Jp) 宇部興産(Jp)

BTR (Cn)

杉杉集団(Cn) 深圳新宙邦科技(Cn)
江西紫宸科技(Cn) 国泰華栄(Cn)
  • LIB Production (World)
  • Historically, Japan had been the major producer of LIB until 2015.
  • Then Korea caught up Japan, now China is the major producer of LIB.
LIB2000 LIB2015 LIB2017

>Top LIB for EV/PHV:

Automobile (BEV/PHEV) Battery EPA
Battery capa.
BMW i3 LMO/NMC 345 42  
Mitsubishi iMiEV-M LTO 66 10.5  
Mitsubishi iMiEV-X LTO 99 16  
Nissan Leaf e 30kWh BEV 171 30  
Nissan Leaf e 40kWh BEV 241 40  
Nissan Leaf e+ 62kWh BEV 364 62 NMC622?
Tesla Model-S 75 BEV 398 75  
Tesla Model-S P100D BEV 504 100  
Tesla Model-X 75D BEV 381 75  
Tesla Model-X 100D BEV 162 100  
Honda Fit EV BEV 131 20  
Honda Accord PHV (PHEV) PHEV 20 6.7  
Toyota Prius PHV (PHEV) PHEV 40 4.4-8.8  
  • Features of LIB: (Source: Battery Univ.)

features of LIB

>Top Cathode


Maker in use Voltage
Spec. Energy
Charge (C)
(1hr charge)
Cycle life
Ther. (º)
Safety EV use
Sony first commercial 1991 3.6 150-200 0.7-1 1 500-1000 150 Low laptop


LG Chem; NEC; Samsung; Hitachi; Nissan AESC 2002 3.7 100-150 0.7-3 1-10 300-700 250 High former Leaf


Nissan; LG Chem; Samsung, Hitchi, Nissan AESC 2008 3.6-3.7 150-220 0.7-1 1-2 1000-2000 210 High most of EV;
Silicon Panasonic; Saft; Samsung 1999 3.6 200-300 0.7 1 5000   Middle Tesla
(18650 cell ☓ 7000)
Univ Texas; A123; BYD 1996 3.2 90-110 1   2000   Very high Segway, PHV
Toshiba; Altairnano   2.4 79-80 1-5 10 3000-7000   Very high iMiEV

>Top 4. Procurement of rare metals:

  • The market trend of rare metals tends to go ahead of the global economic trend.
    • Major trend of 15 years has occurred as a rule of thumb.
    • 1945-50 was the post-war reconstruction period, then 1950-65 new systems were installed, 1965-80 economic growth, 1980-95 peak out, 1995-2010 zero growth, ...
    • Typical bear market also shows global trend; crash in 1929, 1973, and 2001.
    • Higher mountains make steeper valleys.
  • METI of Japan (actually JOGMEC, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp.) listed 47 atoms as rare metals, to which Shigeo Nakamura, rare metals specialit, added 10 more rare metals.
    • Rare metals are defined by 1) scarcity of ore reserves of the metals, or 2) difficulty of extracting of them.
    • Most of the countries stockpiled such rare metals due to security reasons.
    • 95% of the metal transactions are occupied by Fe, and the remained almost 5% are Cu, Pb, Zn in the order of million tons.
    • Japan is the biggest consumer of such rare metals.
  • The transaction volume of such rare metals are very small, in several tons order.
    • The ore reserved of such rare metals are unevenly distributed, and supplied by very limited sources, such as China, some African counties, and Latin countries.
  • Features of rare metals:
    • Superconductivity
    • Ferromagnetic
    • Semiconductivity
    • High temperature heat resistance
    • Photoelectric conversion
    • Heat conduction
    • Catalytic propeties
    • Radiation function
    • Corrosion resistance
    • Optical properties
  • The rare metals are used as the materials in high-tech products, such as:
    • In (indium) in conductive fils of LCD
    • Li and Co in electrode and electrolyte
    • Ga (gallium) in LED
    • Nd (neodymium) and Dy (dysprosium) as permanent magnet of high-performance motor
  • EV uses full of rare metals:
    • high voltage 400V of EV, and 150-200V of HV, vs. 14V or 42V of ICE
  • Rare metal market:
    • In Japan, ¥1.2T/2003, ¥2.0T/2005, ¥3.3T/2007
    • In 2008; composed of 1) noble metals ¥962B, 2) rare metal chemical products ¥812B, 3) ferroalloy ¥559B, 4) catalyst ¥558B, 5) rare metal ore ¥557B, 6) Ni metal ¥156B, 7) rare earth ¥58B.
    • Rare metals market is easily affected by speculations due to its small size.
    • Japan shares 65% of worldwide exports of electronic materials, depending on its fine processing technology and environmental technology.
    • China is basically importing country of natural resources; but exceptionally retains large reserves of several rare metals, such as W, Mo, Sb, and rare earths.
      • Since 2000, China shifted to domestic-oriented economy, changing its export policy of rare metals.
      • In 2006/1, consignment processing of rare metals is banned; in addition export taxes of rare metals were induced.
        • As of 2007/1: export tax 5% for W, 15% fro Mo, Cr, In as well as export quota for 40 items is induced.
        • As of 2007/6: export tax 15% for rare metals, 10% for rare earth metals.
        • As of 2008/1: 10% for W, and 25% for rare earth metals.4-5 times in several years.
      • Such change of Chinese policy affected the market of rare metal, soaring
        • President Xíjìnpíng graduated faculty of chemistry of Qīnghuá University, knows well the value of rare metals.
        • Former president Hú Jǐntāo was graduate of hydraulic engineering of Qīnghuá University.
        • Former premier Wēn Jiābǎo graduated China University of Geoscience.
        • These leaders have visited Africa almost every year.
      • Eg. China installed new railway across Tibetan plateau of 4,000km altitude, intending to promote resources development.
    • Ore reserves in Africa, Cuba, North Korea, etc as well as Tibet, Uighur, and Central Asia.
      • In North Korea, during Japanese imperial period, there were six Mg factories, and 5 out of 6 located in North Korea.
        • There was also large W, Mo deposits there, which were used for military use.
        • And there are abundant resources of rare earth metals, which will be very useful metals for present high-tech industries.
    • In Central Asia, there are promising rare metal mines as well as abundant oil reserves.
      • Kazakhstan has encouraging Cr and Ti mines, where non-ferrous majors are in fierce competition.
      • Kyrgyzstan has Sb and rare earth.
      • Uzbekistan has Cu and U mines other than Au.
      • Tajikistan has Mo and Sb.
    • In Latin America, there are many gigantic non-ferrous mines.
      • Chile has Cu ore reserves which shares 38%, produces 37% worldwide in 2007. Mo is produced 22% of the world as by-product of Cu.
      • Brazil has abundant Nb, Tl, Ni, and Sn, but has less of Cu, Zn, and Cr.
      • Peru 1st Ag, 3rd Cu, Zn and Mo reserves, 4th Pb, 5th Au metals.
    • In Mongolia, there are large Cu, Zn, Pb, rare earth, Mo, W deposits.
    • Re is produced as a by-product of Mo mines; world production in only about 50 tons in 2007.
  • Japan needs to import rare metals which are indispensable in making:
    • W for cemented carbide
    • Rare earth metals for rechargeable batteries.
    • In for transparent electrode of flat screen TV
    • Pt and V for exhaust gas catalyst.
    • Nd, B, Dy for magnetic materials
  • Mining in Japan:
    • Once Japan had been a typical mining country; all conglomerates (Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Furukawa, Hitachi, etc.) have gained their enormous wealth through mining operations.
      • In 2007 Toyoha Mine of Pb, Zn, In operated by Nippon Mining was closed.
      • Hishikari Gold Mine became the last mine operated by Sumitomo Metal Mining.

4. レアメタルの確保:


  • The gray color is the list of 47 rare metals by METI, and the pale blue shows the another 10 rare metals added by the author.
Metal Use & Application
Ti, M.G. aviation, desalination, plant, power generation, nuclear, steel, Al addition
Rare earth optics, lens, magnetism, fluorescent, catalyst, electronics, superconductor
To, NB ceramic condenser, optics, electronics, catalyst, alloy, calcination plate
Ni, Co stainless, alloy, plating, battery, magnet, catalyst, heat-resistance
Sr, Ba magnetic, ferrite, x-ray shielding, bulb glass, ceramic condenser
Sb flame retardant battery, wear resistant alloy, glass clarifying
Ge, Ga PET resin catalyst, opt electronics, infrared light, compound semiconductior, fluorescence
Zr, Hf nuclear, refractory, electronic material, fine ceramics, sensor
Li, Be rechargeable battery, special glass, oxide single crystal, aviation, spring material
  • Metal Market Players:

>Top 5. Innovation related EV proliferation:

  • METI warns in their white paper that there is a cliff of DX (Digital Transformation) for Japanese economy.
  • EV proliferation may cause various consecutive disruptions in Japanese industries; which I described five walls to attain creative disruption of Japanese economy.
    • 1) first, Japanese major auto makers, particularly Toyota and Honda, should release competitive EV. (Nissan seems to challenge actively in EV marketing, but is required more expanding.)
    • The research of full solid battery is worthwhile, which is still R&D stage. No single EV runs on such new battery at the moment. Presently, battery industry should concentrate more improvement of LIB as the competitive production.
    • Expansion of EV related industry may cause destructive rearrangement of industries; Japan should not escape from these destructions.
    • 2) Improved battery production will be the key to produce better EV, and more cooperation with China and Korea are indispensable, because Japanese industries still retain better production know-how and quality control, including environmental technology.
    • 3) To expand battery production, more rare metals are needed. Collaboration between C-J-K will be preferable to minimize the risk factor of resources procurement in developing countries.
    • >Top 4) More construction of charging facilities are needed. Japan and China agreed to cooperate in the next generation of Chademo, covering more charging spots in China and Japan.
    • 5) Proliferation of EV means that of batteries. Rational battery recycle may contribute more renewable power generation, such as H2V and V2H using home solar PV generation, which will be useful particularly natural disasters. Change of grid and distribution networks are also needed to realize more resilient society.
  • Impact of the destructions:
    • Decrease of crude oil (2017 data): herein 1kL=0.85MT=6.289bbl
      • Japan imports 185M-kL (=1.16B-bbl a year), which came from 87% from ME (depending Saudi Arabia 39% and UAE 25%)
      • Gasoline is used 29% within this volume of crude oil.
      • For import of crude oil, Japan retains 658 tankers and 3,200 tanks containing 12.6M-kL for stockpile.
      • Also, retains refinery capacity of 560K-kL (=3.52M-bbl)
      • retains 31,000 gasoline stations (which was decrease from 60,000 in 1994)
    • Decrease of size of auto industry:
      Production of EV is said to require less parts (around one third or half number of parts), while PEV is said to require 30% more parts. Presently auto industries retain 5.34M employment, which will decrease around 3M employment according to the shift to EV.
    • Decrease of auto export:
      Japan now produces 9.23M cars (2018), in which exports 4.57M cars worldwide. As EV production grows, importing countries may produce their domestic EV gradually. This

5. EV普及に伴うイノベーション:

  • 5つの壁:

>Top 6. Glossary:

  1. Disrupt: <L. disruptus (dis- 離れて+rumpere 破る)
  2. EV (Electric Vehicle) or BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle):
    BEV use electric motor and motor controller instead of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines).
    • HEV is not considered pure EV. PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid EV), whose battery can be recharged by external electric power, as well as on-board engine and generator.
    • Charging the batter from the grid can cost less than using the on-board engine.
  3. LIB:
    • LIB (Lithium-Ion battery) have higher power and energy density compared to older battery types like Pb-acid batteries. LIB has energy density of 0.9-2.63MJ/L, while Pb-acid has 0.36 MJ/L. But gasoline engine has an energy density of 34.2 MJ/L.
    • In 1970s, LIB was proposed by M. Stanley Whittingham, using lithium metal and titanium disulfide as each electrode (but this could not be commercial, due to cost, safety and toxicity)
    • In 1977c, Hideki Shirakawa, Nobel laureate 2000, discovered that polyacetylene semi-conductive material, PAS, (this is an organic matter, not metal), which could be used later as negative electrode.
    • In 1979, John B. Goodenough and Koichi Mizushima demonstrated a rechargeable lithium cell with 4V range using LiCoO2 as positive electrode and lithium metal as negative electrode. LiCoO2 acts as a donor of L+, which means negative electrode material could be used other than Li metal. Later, similar value of ternary compound Li-transition metal oxides such as the spinel LiMn2O4, Li2MnO3, LiMnO2, LiFeO2, LiFe5O8, and LiFe5O4 (and later LiCu-oxide and LiNi-oxide cathode materials in 1985)
    • In 1985, Akira Yoshino used carbonaceous material into which L+ could be inserted as one electrode, an LiCoO2 as the other, improving dramatic safety, enabled industrial-scale LIB production.
    • In 1991, Sony and Asahi Kasei release the first commercial LIB.
    • as of 2016, global LIB production capacity was 28 GWh, with 16.4 GWh in China.
    • In 2014, Tesla Model-S EV using 85 kWh (7104 cells of 18650 cylindrical LIB of 6.5cm long)
    • In 2015, cost estimates $300-500/kWh, which will be 70% reduced by 2030.
    • In 2019/10, Nobel Prize in Chemistry was given to John Goodenough, Stanley Whittingham (both are awarded for their cathodes) and Akira Yoshino (awarded for the first working prototype).

6. 関連用語:

  1. Disrupt:
  2. リチウムイオン電池:
    • 日本の貢献
    • LIBの工業化・低廉化
    • ノーベル化学賞2019受賞の意義
  • Various changes are happening even around my personal environment: 1) EV (Nissan Leaf came home), 2) concentration of reading related EV and battery, 3) more human connections around myself, 4) Challenge of new area of interests, etc.
  • Consequently EV brings us not only new way of transportation, but also expand of interest, knowledge, and even rejuvenation and positive conversation.
  • 個人的な環境についても様々な変化が起こりつつある。1) 日産リーフがやって来てから、2) EVや電池関連の集中読書、3) 多くの人間関係増加、4) 新たな興味分野への挑戦等。
  • 結論として、EVは新たな輸送手段だけでなく、興味や知識、そして若返りと前向きの会話をもたらしている。

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