| Bottom | Home | Article | Bookshelf | Keyword | Author | Oxymoron |

 

Village Capitalism in Japan

〜 Japanese economy is moved by feeling of relief 〜

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2013
#1712b

Kousuke Motani (藻谷浩介)

17y22u/18115r
Title

Village Capitalism in Japan

里山資本主義

Index
  1. Introduction
  2. The front runner of ecological life:
  3. The advanced country in 21C - Austria:
  4. Emancipation from global economy:
  5. Getting out of the isolated society:
  6. Toward the gentle 21st century:
  7. Solution to the less children society of Japan:
  8. <Re> Depopulating Japan:
  1. 序文:
  2. エコロジカルライフの最先端:
  3. 21世紀先進国、オーストリア:
  4. グローバル経済からの奴隷解放:
  5. 無縁社会の克服:
  6. しなやかな21世紀へ:
  7. 日本の少子化への解決策:
  8. <参考>少子化日本の現状:
Why
Continuation of the book 'The true character of Japanese deflation' by the author. 同著者による'デフレの正体'の続編的な提言
Key
; Abandoning of nuclear; Austrofoma; Biomass power generation; Birthrate; CLT; Cultivating chef; Depopulating society; Eco-stove; Forest road; Güssing model; Local currency; Longing future; New normal; Pellet boiler; Smart city; Tower yarder; Underpopulated area;
English
Reference

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • Origin of the idea:
    • Riemann shock in 2008; recognizing gentle decline of American style money capitalism.
  • Automobile industry as core of the real economy:
    • Sales of cars like SUV (Sports Utility Vehicle) by the fake mechanism of financial institutions.
  • European sovereign debt crisis in 2009-2010:
    • Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Italy, Spain, ...
  • Village Capitalism:
    • Autonomous regional & sustainable economy in 21C
    • Stagnant economy in Japan due to the wave of population.

0. 要旨:

  • 発想の原点:
    • リーマンショック (2008):
      アメリカ型マネー資本主義の衰退
  • 実体経済の中核である自動車産業
    • SUVなど金融商品のメカニズムで販売
  • 欧州経済危機 (2009-2010)
    • ギリシア, ポルトガル, キプロス、イタリー, スペインなど
  • 21C型里山資本主義:
    • 持続的経済: 晴耕雨読
    • 人口の波による停滞した日本経済

>Top 1. The front runner of ecological life:

  • HH Use of energy: (by METI, 2010)
    • Electricity 34.8%
    • Use of heat 65.2%
      • heating 26.8%
      • hot water supply 27.7%
      • kitchen 7.8%
      • air conditioning 2.9%
  • >Top Woody biomass power generation:
    • Saving of electricity: ¥100M/y
    • Sales of electricity: ¥50M/y (Sales cost ¥3/kW (after )
    • Biomass disposal cost: ¥240M/y .... ¥400M+
    • Construction cost: ... ¥1,000M
  • Present Japanese forest:
    • Forest industry:
      • Area: 10M ha (almost 50 years past)
      • Demand of timber: 117M cu-m/1973 →7.2M/2011
      • Lumbering industry: peak in 1970s→only 7000 companies/2009
    • Successful case:
      • Okayama Pref.:
        • Biomass supply base:
          • established in 2008 in Okayama Pref.
      • Maniwa Biomass Generation Co.: Koichiro Nakajima
        • was established in 2013/2:
        • 10kW, covering half HH of Maniwa City.
  • >Top How to make an Eco-stove:
    • Steel pail (20L); Rocket stove invented in US 1980s.
    • is very effect in such case as the Great Earthquake in East Japan
    • taking advantage of less populated region: including to use vacant houses.
  • CLT (Cross Laminated Timber):
    • Each layers are orientated perpendicular to adjacent layers and glued.
    • CLT is claimed to be as strong and fire-retardant as structural steel or concrete; are proposed for 40-storey CLT building in Stockholm and 100-storey tower in London.
    • 2000: up to 9-storey CLT building became available in Austrian law; more comfortable living environment will be available.
      • The shift of making building from reinforced concrete to CLT would be another industrial revolution; from cement, steel, coal & oil to natural sustainable wood resources; from national centered economy with less employment to regional distributed economy with more employment.
    • In Brisbane, Australia, 9-storey all timber office building is due to be completed in 2018.

1. エコロジカルライフの最先端:

  • 家庭部門エネルギー消費 (2010)
    • 電気: 35%
    • 熱利用: 65%
      • 暖房 27%, 給湯 27%, 台所8%,
        冷房 3%
  • エネルギーの自立
    • 岡山県真庭市の製材所
    • 銘建工業; 中島浩一郎社長
    • バイオマス集積基地 (2008-)
      • 真庭バイオマス発電株式会社:
        資本¥250M
    • 木質バイオマス発電事業; 2kWh,
      10kW, 2015稼働; 事業費41億円=23億借入
  • 日本の森林の現状:
  • エコストープの作り方:
    • ペール缶の活用
    • 東日本大震災の際に活用
  • CLT材 (直交集成板)
    • セメント・鉄鋼・石炭・石油資源から再生可能な森林資源への転換
    • 新たな産業革命
    • 雇用減の集中大規模経済から、雇用増の地域分散経済へ
    • 日本の現状は3F以上の木造建築には制約多い (木造公共施設は8.3%)
    • 2012: 日本CLT協会設立
  • 日本の過去貿易立国モデルの限界
    • 貿易黒字: ¥14T (2011)
      • 内、エネルギー輸入: ¥20T
      • 貿易収支: △¥2T
    • 生活必需品: 水・食料・燃料
    • 国土の70%が森林
    • Backup systemとしての里山資本主義
    • 高度成長期以降の地域振興の目玉
      • 高速道路
      • 工業団地
      • 観光振興
  • 中国5県の高齢化率: 25%
    中国山地12市の高齢化率34%; 人口は△35%(1980→2010)
    • 庄原市(神奈川県の半分): 40K
      • 真庭市(東京23区の1.3倍): 50K

>Top 2. Advanced country in 21C - Austria:

  • Summary of Austria:
    • Forest area: 3.9M ha; 47% of the national land
    • Unemployment ration: 4.2%
    • GDP (nominal) per head: $49,688 (world 11th; Japan 17th)
    • Domestic investment: €10.1B (3.2 times year on year)
    • Foreign investment: €21.9B (3.8 times year on year)
    • Austria suffered less impact even in Euro crisis in 2009/10:
  • >Top Forest economy: 'Austrofoma', an expo of machinery for forest industry
    • was mostly dependent on gas and oil a decade ago.
    • Observation teams come every 4 years to Austria ('Austrofoma'); a whole mountain is an exhibition area displaying advanced technology of forestry of about 100 companies.
      • >Top Construction of forest road & woodland path
      • 'Tower yarder' to carry felling trees by ropeway.
      • slab chipper for chipping timber
      • woody pellet factory and tank lorry to carry the pellet; 300K ton/y
        • raw materials (like sawdust) for pellet factory;
      • Forest industry; is cool, healthful, and high income.
    • >Top pellet boiler; combustion temperature is important; minimize residue of ash (less than 0.5%); combustion efficiency 92-93%, nearly double efficiency than oil boiler
      • hot water supply & floor heating by heated pipe
      • consuming about 5 tons a season (€1100)
      • technology of the pellet boiler; the ratio of hydrocarbon and oxygen, reducing carbon monoxide, and ash
        • Price: pellet boiler €10000 vs. oil boiler €6-7000
        • significant subsidies for pellet boiler
      • combustion efficiency 92-93%; higher than oil boiler: 1L oil (80 cents)=2kg woody pellet (40 cents)
    • Austria has steep mountainous area of the Alps, like Japan, but unlike Sweden or Norway.
    • Forest education: 'Forester' or forest meister national certification
      • function: management of forest resources; estimate volume of tree felling; estimate area of felling; sales advice of the product;
      • Ossiacher Forest Training Institute, Kärnten
    • Safety environment for forest labors:
      • Safety education; compulsory wearing of chain saw protective clothing
    • Use of sustainable energy:
    • Ratio of renewable energy: 28.5% →34% /2030
      • >Top Abandoning of nuclear energy; stipulated in the constitution
      • 'Güssing model'; populated only 4000, near Hungarian border
        • Local production for local consumption of sustainable energy.
      • Ecological power generation law in 2011.
      • Promotion of sustainable energy:
      • FIT (Feed-In-Tariff)
      • Annual subsidy; €21M →€50M (€40M after 2021)
  • Village Capitalism in 21C:
    • Aiming slow life; slow food; local production for local consumption
    • Review of regional climate and culture
    • barter trade not depending too much on money
  • Revitalization of forest industry like Austria could be possible in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Northern-Kanto, Koshinetsu, Shikoku, and Kyushu regions.

2. 21世紀先進国 - オーストリア:

  • オーストリア
    • 国土: 8.4M ha (北海道よりやや大)
      東アルプスが2/3
    • 降水量: 800-1000mm
    • 失業率: 4.2%
    • GDP(名目一人当たり): $49,688
    • 国内投資: €10.1B (前年比320%)
    • 海外投資: €21.9B (前年比380%)
    • ユーロ危機の影響は相対的に小
  • オーストリアの森林経済: Austrofoma
    • 森林面積:
      3.9M ha (国土の47%); 63%が針葉樹
      1975に現在の森林法改正
      2002に森林の質の向上制定
      Ecology & Economy両立
      森林関連雇用: 290K人
      林業3K (かっこいい/健康的/高収入)
    • 高い林道密度
      林業教育(Forester): 高収入資格制度
      タワーヤーダー(架線集材システム)
      安全教育: Chain saw防護服着用義務
    • 木材生産量: 26M cu.m
      (GDPの7.5%; 日本は0.3%)
      木材生産可能森林: 84%
    • ペレットボイラー:
    • 原発代替としてのBiomass発電:
      • 憲法に明記
      • エコ電力法, 2011        
    • ギュッシング・モデル (ハンガリーとの国境の町; 人口4000)
      • Cogeneration system; 自給率72%
      • 国全体のBiomass energy比率は10% (日本は0.3%)
      • 冷戦時代は、西側で最貧の町の一つ
      • 44%の森林は放置
      • 1989: に国境開放。EU化で出稼ぎ
      • 1990: 森林エネルギーを地域経済再生の切り札; Global経済と一線画す
      • 1996; 官民で地域暖房取り組み, 総延長35km
      • 2001: Cogenration発電, FIT適用; 同時に太陽光発電, 菜種油energy利用
      • 木材買取価格: €16/cu-m
      • 2005: €18M売上(€6M流出/1990)
      • 2012: 銀行融資完済
      • 企業誘致成功: 1100人の雇用
      • Güssing市税収: 公共インフラ整備可能; €0.34M/93→€1.5M/2009
  • 21Cの里山資本主義:
    • スローライフ; スローフード; 地産地消
    • 地域毎の風土や文化の見直し

>Top 3. Emancipation from global economy:

  • Depopulated region:
    Island of depopulation: Suoh Ohshima in Seto Inland Sea.
    • 600m mountain
    • average annual temperature: 15.5ºC
    • harvesting citrus fruits
    • highest aging ratio in Japan: 47.7%
      • but recently I turn & U turn people are increasing
    • New business in the island by youth:
      • 'Confiture' in the island; a coffee shop with sea view
        • buying material fruits at ¥100/kg (usually ¥10/kg)
        • price of jam: ¥700/155g jar; each has different flavor
      • apiary in the island; making from beekeeping to bottling
      • oil sardine can
      • 20% of youth wishes to challenge the primary industry; pursuing reality by all senses and human ties.
      • >Top 'new normal' consumption
  • Reality of the old normal:
    • 52% of merchandize disappears within 2 years; which was only 8% in 1990s.
    • Short-lived products: term of profitability is only 1.5 years; which was about 25 years in 1970s.
    • Job satisfaction: 39%; melancholy among youth.
    • Communication network among youth working in the island: 'Shima-kurasu' (living in an island)
    • >Top 'Longing future':
      • cyclic change from short-term profit to long-term profit.
      • change of meaning of 'share'; it meant market-share, but now it means share-economy.
      • The ratio of abandoned farmland in Japan: 386K ha/2005; though Japanese foods self-sufficiency is 39%, due to acreage reduction policy and aging farmers.
        • Self-sufficiency: rice 96%, wheat 11%, fat 13%, livestock 16%
        • Pasturing in grassland is possible.
        • 'Cultivating chef'; getting vegetables from own farmland.
    • Essence of village capitalism:
      • Economic activities diminish, but getting rich; richness of joy pride, and getting appreciation form local people.
      • Share of knowledge: how to make vegetables, to distinguish its quality, and to cook and to east vegetables.
      • taking advantage of underpopulated area.

3. グローバル経済からの奴隷解放:

  • 過疎地域
    • 過疎の島: 瀬戸内海の周防大島
      • 標高600mの山
      • 平均気温 15.5ºC
      • 柑橘類の栽培
<New normal>
  • A term in business and economics that refers to financial conditions following 2008-2012 global recession; to imply that something which was previously abnormal.
  • Since 2012, China's economy has shown a marked slowdown, with declining from double digit levels to around 7% 8n 2014; Xí Jìnpíng indicated a new normal (新常态 xīnchángtài)
  • 懐かしい未来:
  • 耕作するシェフ
  • 里山資本主義の本質
  • villagecapitalism

 

>Top 4. Getting out of the isolated society:

  • Effectiveness of local currency; circulation of services in a community.
  • Economy of aged people:
    • To increase supporting fund or decrease life quality.
    • Village capitalism would be another solution in aging society.
      • Present pension scheme was not planed for the aging society.
      • The integrated reform of tax and social security is a kind of minor adjustment;
      • A policy of taking advantage of under population, such as utilization of vacant houses, which could be treasure boxes.
    • Handicap in urban areas:
      • Insufficient nursery schools
      • lower or unstable income
      • poor housing
      • community without generation of grandchildren

4. 無縁社会の克服:

  • 地域通貨: 信用の地域内循環
  • 高齢化対策
    • 資金調達または生活の質低下
    • 里山資本主義は第3の方策
      • 顔の見える生産者
      • 豊富なアイディア
      • 想定外の怒濤の展開
      • 自己調達
      • 手間返し (できる課程を楽しむ)
      • 穏やかな時間の流れ
      • 結果として高いLoQ
      • Grass roots global competition
    • 都市部の問題点
      • 育児困難: 保育園不足
      • 非正規採用: 低・不安定収入
      • 住環境: 遠距離通勤
      • 核家族: 孫世代なしのコミュニティ

>Top 5. Toward the gentle 21st century:

  • Excess of resources:
    • To utilize such excess of resources: including pension dependent generations
    • Craving feelings:
      • community
      • nature
  • >Top Smart city: IT enhanced
    • Small scale distributed power generation
    • Energy saving technology: solar panel + EV (Li battery)
    • Smart grid
    • Small is beautiful; detailed fine, or impalpable
    • Diversity
  • Two wheels of the car:
    • Smart city in urban area + Village capitalism in local community
  • Root cause analysis:

5. しなやかな21世紀へ:

  • 都市部のスマートシティと地方の里山資本主義は車の両輪
  • 根本原因分析

>Top 6. Counterargument to declining Japan:

  • Low economic growth rate of Japan since 1990:
    • Lost decade or lost two decades after collapse of the bubble economy.
    • Japan has been almost zero growth amount the advanced countries
    • ◎But GDP per productive age is the highest.
    • ◎Relatively clear and safe society
    • ◎Highest level of average life
  • Deteriorating global competitiveness of Japan:
    • National economic competitiveness: from the 1st to 27th
    • ◎Why still keeping higher yen evaluation
    • ◎Stable export amount (due to non-price competitiveness): ¥42T/1985→¥61T/2012
  • Limit of money capitalism of Japan:
    • Non increase of domestic consumption since 15 years ago
    • Increase of working poor under deflation (non increase of wages)
    • □Less-impact of monetary easing policy of BOJ
    • □Over supply of real estate, car, electronics, cheap foods
    • □Decreasing of productive ages (15-65); will be half in 50 years
    • □France, Italy, Swiss model: exporting brand products such as wine, cheese, pasta, ham, olive oil, apparel & craft products
    • □Total of individual financial assets: about ¥1500T, leaving their heritage about ¥35M per head; about ¥35T by bequests of 1M
    • □Large companies have been too dependent on increase of productive ages until 1995.
    • □Possible rise of interest: present N-bond holders will suffer damage like pension fund, life insurance companies, financial institutions: 6% rate of N-bond requires all tax income for interest payment of N-bond.
    • □Inflation surely depreciate debt amount, but which raise interest rate too.
    • □Harm of short-term policies or momentary prosperity:
      • maintenance of social infrastructure
      • depending on nuclear power generation; decommissioning process and no exit of spent nuclear fuel
    • □Vague uneasiness of collapse of money capitalism:
      • There will be no backup system to secure water, food, and energy.
      • Village capitalism is sustainable depending on renewable supply o water, food and energy.
      • Village capitalism is a kind of social insurance.
    • □We must pay for the reality of long-neglected less children society:
      • decrease of children (<14) 1.6%/y
      • 40% decrease of children in last 35 years; getting half in 50 years
      • Urgent policy should stem the tide of further decrease of children after becoming half.
      • Okinawa, Kyushu (except Fukuoka), Shimane, Tokkori, Fukui, Yamagata prefecture are rather better situation in having children
      • Most of young women live in metropolitan areas, where they chose late-marriage and less children.
      • Large companies and metropolitan habitants do not believe bright future; consequently causing less children society.
  • Population decreasing society means a society which raises human value per head.
    • The future will be in the hands of younger generation in the end.
    • Village capitalism will be effective as a subsystem or a back up system of vulnerable Japan in depopulation.

6. 衰退する日本論への反論:

  • 1990依頼の経済低成長:
    • ◎生産人口当たりのGDP
    • ◎クリーンで安全な社会
    • ◎平均寿命の高さ
  • 日本の国際競争力:
    • ◎円高基調
    • ◎堅調な輸出力 (非価格競争力)
    • ◎金利配当: ¥14T/2012で貿易赤字¥6Tをカバー (2012)
    • 対資源国のみ貿易赤字
    • 米英独や新興国には貿易黒字
  • マネー資本主義: 日本の課題
    • 国内消費停滞 (15年前より)
    • ワーキングプアの増加
    • 金融緩和継続の効果疑問
    • 生産性人口減少 (50年間に半減)
    • 仏伊スイスの事例
    • 個人金融資産: 1500兆の行方
    • 大企業は、1995まで生産性年齢増加に過剰依存
    • 金利の上昇
    • 短期視野での政策
      • 社会インフラ維持
      • 原発維持; 廃炉・最終処分の目処なし
    • システム崩壊への不安
  • 未来は結局若者の手に:

>Top 7. <Re:> Depopulating Japan

  • Advent of marginal depopulating society; 896 communities could be extinct in Japan.
  • ♥Depopulation=late marriage × birthrate
    • Children born outside of marriage is quite exceptional in Japan; 22,402 babies, 2.29% in 2016;
      • Chile 71%, Mexico 65%, Bulgaria 59%, France 57%, Norway 55%, Sweden 55%, Netherland 49%, UK 48%, Czech 47%, New Zealand 47%, Spain 43%, Austria 42%, US 40%, Germany 35%, Australia 34%, Canada 33%, Rumania 31%, Italy 29%,Poland 24%, Swiss 21%, Greece 8%, Israel 6%, Turkey 3%, and Korea 1.9%
  • >Top Birthrate:
    • 1st baby boom: 2.7M (1947-49); birthrate 4.32
    • 2nd baby boom: 2.1M (1971-74); birthrate 2.14
    • babies born: 1.03M in 2013; birthrate 1.43
    • babies born: 0.98M in 2016: birthrate 1.44 (government target is 1.80)
      • marriage couple: 0.625M in 2016; male 31.1; female 29.4
    • Birthrate of regional difference (2015): Av. 1.45
      • Tokyo: 1.24
      • Osaka: 1.39
      • Okinawa: 1.96
    • No braking of decreasing trend of the birthrate:
  • ♠Population replacement level: sustainable birthrate: say 2.1
    • If Japan recovers this level by 2030; then the populate stabilized at 99M around 2090 (after 60 years); law of inertia, or chronic disease
  • Three stages of depopulation in Japan:
    • First stage: Aging population increases, and working & young population decrease.
    • Second stage: Aging population maintains, and working & young population decrease.
    • Third stage: Aging, working & young populations decrease.

7. 参考: 人口減少の日本:

  • ♥人口減少=晩婚化×出生率
    • 日本は非嫡出子比率は2.29%/2016
    • 仏57%, 英48%, 米40%, 独35%, 加33%

  • ♦出生率:

birthrate_japan

  • ♠日本における人口減少3段階

depopulation_Japan

  • Domestic sales of new car in Japan:
    • Down trend since 1996: from 7M to 4.3M
    • Not only cars, but also sales of department stores, books, water usage, etc. due to decrease of working ages
  • What happens when the most competitive car industry declines?
  • 国内新車販売台数:
  • carsalesdomestic
Comment
  • Village Capitalism is an effective counter proposal under the trend of present money chapitalism or globalization.
  • Countermeasures against less children is urgent and essential.
  • 里山資本主義は現在のマネー資本主義やグローバリゼーションに対する有効な提案
  • 少子化対策は緊急かつ本質的な課題

| Top | Home | Article | Bookshelf | Keyword | Author | Oxymoron |