Village Capitalism in Japan

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2013
#1712b

Kousuke Motani (藻谷浩介)

Village Capitalism in Japan

里山資本主義

0. Introduction
1. The front runner of ecological life:
2. The advanced country in 21C - Austria:
3. Emancipation from global economy:
4. Getting out of the isolated society:
5. Toward the gentle 21st century:
6. Solution to the less children society of Japan:
7. <Re> Depopulating Japan:

0. 序文:
1. エコロジカルライフの最先端:
2. 21世紀先進国、オーストリア:
3. グローバル経済からの奴隷解放:
4. 無縁社会の克服:
5. しなやかな21世紀へ:
6. 日本の少子化への解決策:
7. <参考>少子化日本の現状:

English

Reference

>Top 0. Introduction:

• Origin of the idea:
  • Riemann shock in 2008; recognizing gentle decline of American style money capitalism.
• Automobile industry as core of the real economy:
• Sales of cars like SUV (Sports Utility Vehicle) by the fake mechanism of financial institutions.
• European sovereign debt crisis in 2009-2010:
  • Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Italy, Spain, ...
• Village Capitalism:
• Autonomous regional & sustainable economy in 21C
• Stagnant economy in Japan due to the wave of population.

0. 要旨:

• 発想の原点:
  • リーマンショック (2008):
    アメリカ型マネー資本主義の衰退
• 実体経済の中核である自動車産業
  • SUVなど金融商品のメカニズムで販売
• 欧州経済危機 (2009-2010)
• ギリシア, ポルトガル, キプロス、イタリー, スペインなど
• 21C型里山資本主義:
  • 持続的経済: 晴耕雨読
  • 人口の波による停滞した日本経済

>Top 1. The front runner of ecological life:

• HH Use of energy: (by METI, 2010)
  • Electricity 34.8%
  • Use of heat 65.2%
    • heating 26.8%
    • hot water supply 27.7%
    • kitchen 7.8%
    • air conditioning 2.9%
• >Top Woody biomass power generation:
  • Saving of electricity: ¥100M/y
  • Sales of electricity: ¥50M/y (Sales cost ¥3/kW (after )
  • Biomass disposal cost: ¥240M/y .... ¥400M+
  • Construction cost: ... ¥1,000M
• Present Japanese forest:
  • Forest industry:
    • Area: 10M ha (almost 50 years past)
    • Demand of timber: 117M cu-m/1973 →7.2M/2011
    • Lumbering industry: peak in 1970s→only 7000 companies/2009
  • Successful case:
    • Okayama Pref.:
      • Biomass supply base:
        • established in 2008 in Okayama Pref.
    • Maniwa Biomass Generation Co.: Koichiro Nakajima
      • was established in 2013/2:
      • 10kW, covering half HH of Maniwa City.
• >Top How to make an Eco-stove:
  • Steel pail (20L); Rocket stove invented in US 1980s.
• is very effect in such case as the Great Earthquake in East Japan
• taking advantage of less populated region: including to use vacant houses.
• CLT (Cross Laminated Timber):
  • Each layers are orientated perpendicular to adjacent layers and glued.
  • CLT is claimed to be as strong and fire-retardant as structural steel or concrete; are proposed for 40-storey CLT building in Stockholm and 100-storey tower in London.
  • 2000: up to 9-storey CLT building became available in Austrian law; more comfortable living environment will be available.
    • The shift of making building from reinforced concrete to CLT would be another industrial revolution; from cement, steel, coal & oil to natural sustainable wood resources; from national centered economy with less employment to regional distributed economy with more employment.
  • In Brisbane, Australia, 9-storey all timber office building is due to be completed in 2018.

1. エコロジカルライフの最先端:

• 家庭部門エネルギー消費 (2010)
  • 電気: 35%
  • 熱利用: 65%
    • 暖房 27%, 給湯 27%, 台所8%,
      冷房 3%
• エネルギーの自立
  • 岡山県真庭市の製材所
  • 銘建工業; 中島浩一郎社長
  • バイオマス集積基地 (2008-)
    • 真庭バイオマス発電株式会社:
      資本¥250M
  • 木質バイオマス発電事業; 2kWh,
    10kW, 2015稼働; 事業費41億円=23億借入
• 日本の森林の現状:
• エコストープの作り方:
• ペール缶の活用
• 東日本大震災の際に活用
• CLT材 (直交集成板)
  • セメント･鉄鋼･石炭･石油資源から再生可能な森林資源への転換
  • 新たな産業革命
  • 雇用減の集中大規模経済から、雇用増の地域分散経済へ
  • 日本の現状は3F以上の木造建築には制約多い (木造公共施設は8.3%)
  • 2012: 日本CLT協会設立
• 日本の過去貿易立国モデルの限界
  • 貿易黒字: ¥14T (2011)
    • 内、エネルギー輸入: ¥20T
    • 貿易収支: △¥2T
  • 生活必需品: 水･食料･燃料
  • 国土の70%が森林
  • Backup systemとしての里山資本主義
  • 高度成長期以降の地域振興の目玉
    • 高速道路
    • 工業団地
    • 観光振興
• 中国５県の高齢化率: 25%
  中国山地12市の高齢化率34%; 人口は△35%(1980→2010)
  • 庄原市(神奈川県の半分): 40K
    • 真庭市(東京23区の1.3倍): 50K

>Top 2. Advanced country in 21C - Austria:

• Summary of Austria:
  • Forest area: 3.9M ha; 47% of the national land
  • Unemployment ration: 4.2%
  • GDP (nominal) per head: $49,688 (world 11th; Japan 17th)
  • Domestic investment: €10.1B (3.2 times year on year)
  • Foreign investment: €21.9B (3.8 times year on year)
  • Austria suffered less impact even in Euro crisis in 2009/10:
• >Top Forest economy: 'Austrofoma', an expo of machinery for forest industry
  • was mostly dependent on gas and oil a decade ago.
  • Observation teams come every 4 years to Austria ('Austrofoma'); a whole mountain is an exhibition area displaying advanced technology of forestry of about 100 companies.
    • >Top Construction of forest road & woodland path
    • 'Tower yarder' to carry felling trees by ropeway.
    • slab chipper for chipping timber
    • woody pellet factory and tank lorry to carry the pellet; 300K ton/y
      • raw materials (like sawdust) for pellet factory;
    • Forest industry; is cool, healthful, and high income.
  • >Top pellet boiler; combustion temperature is important; minimize residue of ash (less than 0.5%); combustion efficiency 92-93%, nearly double efficiency than oil boiler
    • hot water supply & floor heating by heated pipe
    • consuming about 5 tons a season (€1100)
    • technology of the pellet boiler; the ratio of hydrocarbon and oxygen, reducing carbon monoxide, and ash
      • Price: pellet boiler €10000 vs. oil boiler €6-7000
      • significant subsidies for pellet boiler
    • combustion efficiency 92-93%; higher than oil boiler: 1L oil (80 cents)=2kg woody pellet (40 cents)
  • Austria has steep mountainous area of the Alps, like Japan, but unlike Sweden or Norway.
  • Forest education: 'Forester' or forest meister national certification
    • function: management of forest resources; estimate volume of tree felling; estimate area of felling; sales advice of the product;
    • Ossiacher Forest Training Institute, Kärnten
  • Safety environment for forest labors:
    • Safety education; compulsory wearing of chain saw protective clothing
  • Use of sustainable energy:
  • Ratio of renewable energy: 28.5% →34% /2030
    • >Top Abandoning of nuclear energy; stipulated in the constitution
    • 'Güssing model'; populated only 4000, near Hungarian border
      • Local production for local consumption of sustainable energy.
    • Ecological power generation law in 2011.
    • Promotion of sustainable energy:
    • FIT (Feed-In-Tariff)
    • Annual subsidy; €21M →€50M (€40M after 2021)
• Village Capitalism in 21C:
• Aiming slow life; slow food; local production for local consumption
• Review of regional climate and culture
• barter trade not depending too much on money
• Revitalization of forest industry like Austria could be possible in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Northern-Kanto, Koshinetsu, Shikoku, and Kyushu regions.

2. 21世紀先進国 - オーストリア:

• オーストリア
  • 国土: 8.4M ha (北海道よりやや大)
    東アルプスが2/3
  • 降水量: 800-1000mm
  • 失業率: 4.2%
  • GDP(名目一人当たり): $49,688
  • 国内投資: €10.1B (前年比320%)
  • 海外投資: €21.9B (前年比380%)
  • ユーロ危機の影響は相対的に小
• オーストリアの森林経済: Austrofoma
• 森林面積:
  3.9M ha (国土の47%); 63%が針葉樹
  1975に現在の森林法改正
  2002に森林の質の向上制定
  Ecology & Economy両立
  森林関連雇用: 290K人
  林業3K (かっこいい/健康的/高収入)
• 高い林道密度
  林業教育(Forester): 高収入資格制度
  タワーヤーダー(架線集材システム)
  安全教育: Chain saw防護服着用義務
  
• 木材生産量: 26M cu.m
  (GDPの7.5%; 日本は0.3%)
  木材生産可能森林: 84%
• ペレットボイラー:
• 原発代替としてのBiomass発電:
  • 憲法に明記
  • エコ電力法, 2011　　　　　　　　
• ギュッシング･モデル (ハンガリーとの国境の町; 人口4000)
  • Cogeneration system; 自給率72%
  • 国全体のBiomass energy比率は10% (日本は0.3%)
  • 冷戦時代は、西側で最貧の町の一つ
  • 44%の森林は放置
  • 1989: に国境開放。EU化で出稼ぎ
  • 1990: 森林エネルギーを地域経済再生の切り札; Global経済と一線画す
  • 1996; 官民で地域暖房取り組み, 総延長35km
  • 2001: Cogenration発電, FIT適用; 同時に太陽光発電, 菜種油energy利用
    
  • 木材買取価格: €16/cu-m
  • 2005: €18M売上(€6M流出/1990)
  • 2012: 銀行融資完済
  • 企業誘致成功: 1100人の雇用
  • Güssing市税収: 公共インフラ整備可能; €0.34M/93→€1.5M/2009
• 21Cの里山資本主義:
  • スローライフ; スローフード; 地産地消
  • 地域毎の風土や文化の見直し

>Top 3. Emancipation from global economy:

• Depopulated region:
  Island of depopulation: Suoh Ohshima in Seto Inland Sea.
  • 600m mountain
  • average annual temperature: 15.5ºC
  • harvesting citrus fruits
  • highest aging ratio in Japan: 47.7%
    • but recently I turn & U turn people are increasing
  • New business in the island by youth:
    • 'Confiture' in the island; a coffee shop with sea view
      • buying material fruits at ¥100/kg (usually ¥10/kg)
      • price of jam: ¥700/155g jar; each has different flavor
    • apiary in the island; making from beekeeping to bottling
    • oil sardine can
    • 20% of youth wishes to challenge the primary industry; pursuing reality by all senses and human ties.
    • >Top 'new normal' consumption
• Reality of the old normal:
• 52% of merchandize disappears within 2 years; which was only 8% in 1990s.
• Short-lived products: term of profitability is only 1.5 years; which was about 25 years in 1970s.
• Job satisfaction: 39%; melancholy among youth.
• Communication network among youth working in the island: 'Shima-kurasu' (living in an island)
• >Top 'Longing future':
  • cyclic change from short-term profit to long-term profit.
  • change of meaning of 'share'; it meant market-share, but now it means share-economy.
  • The ratio of abandoned farmland in Japan: 386K ha/2005; though Japanese foods self-sufficiency is 39%, due to acreage reduction policy and aging farmers.
    • Self-sufficiency: rice 96%, wheat 11%, fat 13%, livestock 16%
    • Pasturing in grassland is possible.
    • 'Cultivating chef'; getting vegetables from own farmland.
• Essence of village capitalism:
  • Economic activities diminish, but getting rich; richness of joy pride, and getting appreciation form local people.
  • Share of knowledge: how to make vegetables, to distinguish its quality, and to cook and to east vegetables.
  • taking advantage of underpopulated area.

3. グローバル経済からの奴隷解放:

• 過疎地域
  • 過疎の島: 瀬戸内海の周防大島
    • 標高600mの山
    • 平均気温 15.5ºC
    • 柑橘類の栽培

• 懐かしい未来:
• 耕作するシェフ
• 里山資本主義の本質
• 

>Top 4. Getting out of the isolated society:

• Effectiveness of local currency; circulation of services in a community.
• Economy of aged people:
  • To increase supporting fund or decrease life quality.
  • Village capitalism would be another solution in aging society.
    • Present pension scheme was not planed for the aging society.
    • The integrated reform of tax and social security is a kind of minor adjustment;
    • A policy of taking advantage of under population, such as utilization of vacant houses, which could be treasure boxes.
  • Handicap in urban areas:
    • Insufficient nursery schools
    • lower or unstable income
    • poor housing
    • community without generation of grandchildren

4. 無縁社会の克服:

• 地域通貨: 信用の地域内循環
• 高齢化対策
  • 資金調達または生活の質低下
  • 里山資本主義は第3の方策
    • 顔の見える生産者
    • 豊富なアイディア
    • 想定外の怒濤の展開
    • 自己調達
    • 手間返し (できる課程を楽しむ)
    • 穏やかな時間の流れ
    • 結果として高いLoQ
    • Grass roots global competition
  • 都市部の問題点
    • 育児困難: 保育園不足
    • 非正規採用: 低･不安定収入
    • 住環境: 遠距離通勤
    • 核家族: 孫世代なしのコミュニティ

>Top 5. Toward the gentle 21st century:

• Excess of resources:
  • To utilize such excess of resources: including pension dependent generations
  • Craving feelings:
    • community
    • nature
• >Top Smart city: IT enhanced
  • Small scale distributed power generation
  • Energy saving technology: solar panel + EV (Li battery)
  • Smart grid
  • Small is beautiful; detailed fine, or impalpable
  • Diversity
• Two wheels of the car:
  • Smart city in urban area + Village capitalism in local community
• Root cause analysis:

5. しなやかな21世紀へ:

• 都市部のスマートシティと地方の里山資本主義は車の両輪
• 根本原因分析

>Top 6. Counterargument to declining Japan:

• Low economic growth rate of Japan since 1990:
  • Lost decade or lost two decades after collapse of the bubble economy.
  • Japan has been almost zero growth amount the advanced countries
  • ◎But GDP per productive age is the highest.
  • ◎Relatively clear and safe society
  • ◎Highest level of average life
• Deteriorating global competitiveness of Japan:
  • National economic competitiveness: from the 1st to 27th
• ◎Why still keeping higher yen evaluation
• ◎Stable export amount (due to non-price competitiveness): ¥42T/1985→¥61T/2012
• Limit of money capitalism of Japan:
  • Non increase of domestic consumption since 15 years ago
  • Increase of working poor under deflation (non increase of wages)
• □Less-impact of monetary easing policy of BOJ
• □Over supply of real estate, car, electronics, cheap foods
• □Decreasing of productive ages (15-65); will be half in 50 years
• □France, Italy, Swiss model: exporting brand products such as wine, cheese, pasta, ham, olive oil, apparel & craft products
• □Total of individual financial assets: about ¥1500T, leaving their heritage about ¥35M per head; about ¥35T by bequests of 1M
• □Large companies have been too dependent on increase of productive ages until 1995.
• □Possible rise of interest: present N-bond holders will suffer damage like pension fund, life insurance companies, financial institutions: 6% rate of N-bond requires all tax income for interest payment of N-bond.
• □Inflation surely depreciate debt amount, but which raise interest rate too.
• □Harm of short-term policies or momentary prosperity:
  • maintenance of social infrastructure
  • depending on nuclear power generation; decommissioning process and no exit of spent nuclear fuel
• □Vague uneasiness of collapse of money capitalism:
  • There will be no backup system to secure water, food, and energy.
  • Village capitalism is sustainable depending on renewable supply o water, food and energy.
  • Village capitalism is a kind of social insurance.
• □We must pay for the reality of long-neglected less children society:
  • decrease of children (<14) 1.6%/y
  • 40% decrease of children in last 35 years; getting half in 50 years
  • Urgent policy should stem the tide of further decrease of children after becoming half.
  • Okinawa, Kyushu (except Fukuoka), Shimane, Tokkori, Fukui, Yamagata prefecture are rather better situation in having children
  • Most of young women live in metropolitan areas, where they chose late-marriage and less children.
  • Large companies and metropolitan habitants do not believe bright future; consequently causing less children society.
• Population decreasing society means a society which raises human value per head.
  • The future will be in the hands of younger generation in the end.
  • Village capitalism will be effective as a subsystem or a back up system of vulnerable Japan in depopulation.

6. 衰退する日本論への反論:

• 1990依頼の経済低成長:
  • ◎生産人口当たりのGDP
  • ◎クリーンで安全な社会
  • ◎平均寿命の高さ
• 日本の国際競争力:
  • ◎円高基調
  • ◎堅調な輸出力 (非価格競争力)
  • ◎金利配当: ¥14T/2012で貿易赤字¥6Tをカバー (2012)
  • 対資源国のみ貿易赤字
  • 米英独や新興国には貿易黒字
• マネー資本主義: 日本の課題
  • 国内消費停滞 (15年前より)
  • ワーキングプアの増加
  • 金融緩和継続の効果疑問
  • 生産性人口減少 (50年間に半減)
  • 仏伊スイスの事例
  • 個人金融資産: 1500兆の行方
  • 大企業は、1995まで生産性年齢増加に過剰依存
  • 金利の上昇
  • 短期視野での政策
    • 社会インフラ維持
    • 原発維持; 廃炉･最終処分の目処なし
  • システム崩壊への不安
• 未来は結局若者の手に:

>Top 7. <Re:> Depopulating Japan

• Advent of marginal depopulating society; 896 communities could be extinct in Japan.
• ♥Depopulation=late marriage × birthrate
  • Children born outside of marriage is quite exceptional in Japan; 22,402 babies, 2.29% in 2016;
    • Chile 71%, Mexico 65%, Bulgaria 59%, France 57%, Norway 55%, Sweden 55%, Netherland 49%, UK 48%, Czech 47%, New Zealand 47%, Spain 43%, Austria 42%, US 40%, Germany 35%, Australia 34%, Canada 33%, Rumania 31%, Italy 29%,Poland 24%, Swiss 21%, Greece 8%, Israel 6%, Turkey 3%, and Korea 1.9%
• >Top ♦Birthrate:
  • 1st baby boom: 2.7M (1947-49); birthrate 4.32
  • 2nd baby boom: 2.1M (1971-74); birthrate 2.14
  • babies born: 1.03M in 2013; birthrate 1.43
  • babies born: 0.98M in 2016: birthrate 1.44 (government target is 1.80)
    • marriage couple: 0.625M in 2016; male 31.1; female 29.4
  • Birthrate of regional difference (2015): Av. 1.45
• Tokyo: 1.24
• Osaka: 1.39
• Okinawa: 1.96
• No braking of decreasing trend of the birthrate:
• ♠Population replacement level: sustainable birthrate: say 2.1
  • If Japan recovers this level by 2030; then the populate stabilized at 99M around 2090 (after 60 years); law of inertia, or chronic disease
• Three stages of depopulation in Japan:
• First stage: Aging population increases, and working & young population decrease.
• Second stage: Aging population maintains, and working & young population decrease.
• Third stage: Aging, working & young populations decrease.
  

7. 参考: 人口減少の日本:

• ♥人口減少=晩婚化×出生率
  • 日本は非嫡出子比率は2.29%/2016
  • 仏57%, 英48%, 米40%, 独35%, 加33%
    
    
• ♦出生率:

• ♠日本における人口減少３段階

• Domestic sales of new car in Japan:
  • Down trend since 1996: from 7M to 4.3M
  • Not only cars, but also sales of department stores, books, water usage, etc. due to decrease of working ages
• What happens when the most competitive car industry declines?

• 国内新車販売台数:
• 

Comment

• Village Capitalism is an effective counter proposal under the trend of present money chapitalism or globalization.
• Countermeasures against less children is urgent and essential.

• 里山資本主義は現在のマネー資本主義やグローバリゼーションに対する有効な提案
• 少子化対策は緊急かつ本質的な課題