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hotflatcrowded

"Hot, Flat, and Crowded"

Category: ECO
Published: 2009
#1107b

Thomas L. Friedman

up 11817

Title

Hot, Flat, & Crowded
Why the world needs a green revolution -
and how we can renew our global future

ホット、フラット、クラウデッド
なぜグリーン革命が必要なのか、
どうすれば世界の未来を再生できるか

Index
Tag

Global financial crisis; cradle to cradle; Energy Internet; petropolitics; Code Green; Green China;

Why?
  • The author is "The Lexus and Olive Tree" (1999), "Longitudes and Attitudes" (2002) , and the most famous "The World Is Flat" (2005).
  • The new book describes contemporary theme: hot (global warming), flat (rise of high-comsuming middle classes), crowded (a billion people every 13 years)
  • This is particularly worth reading both for IT people and envrionmnetal and energy people.
  • 著者は、2005年に"The World Is Flat" を書いて一世を風靡した。
  • 今回はhot-地球温暖化, flat-中産階級増大, crowded-13年毎に10億人増加を記述
  • 本書は特に、IT関連と環境エネルギー関連に役立つ。
Key phrase
Remarks
>Top

0. Preface:

  • This book was originally published in 2008/9. But the author has substantially rewritten after Global financial crisis on 2008/9/1.
  • "Enough is enough" after the Great Recession.
  • In America at least, too much of economic growth was borrowed from our children's piggy banks and from Mother Nature's reserves, not invented.

0. 序:

  • 本書は2008/9に刊行されたが、2008/9/1のリーマンショックの大不況後、一部書き直した。
  • 大不況後は、"Enough is enough"
  • 米国の経済成長の依存は子供の預金や天然資源でおり、発明にではない。
>Top

1. When the market and mother nature hit the wall:

  • The Great Recession in September 2008: Subprime mortgages
    • Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
    • Citibank, Iceland's banks, ice banks of Antarctica all melted down.
    • borrowed from children's piggy banks and from Mother Nature's reserves.
    • collapse of Lehman Brothers: US-Gov $700B emergency fund
    • too big to fail
  • Grasshopper Generation:
    • gorged on the savings and natural world - leaving our children huge financial and ecological deficits.
  • IBG (I'll be gone)/YBG (You'll be gone):
    • culture of irresponsibility
    • when the bill comes due; and privatizing gains and the socializing of losses.
  • A group of mortgages:
    • AAA at the top
    • BBB/CCC at the bottom of the sink
    • Usually, those tranches of mortgage-backed securities never got wet. But today many of those AAA trances are also under water.

1. いつ市場と自然環境とは壁に突き当たったのか:

  • 2008/9大不況: サブプライムローン
    • シティーバンク、アイスランド銀行、南極氷山の融解
    • 次世代への借金、自然の資源収奪
    • リーマンショック: $700B投入
  • イナゴ世代:
    • 預金や資源の食いつぶし
  • IBG/YBG:
    • 無責任文化
    • 利益は我がもの、損失は皆のもの
  • 抵当権付き債券:
    • 評価AAAがトップ
    • 評価BBB/CCCは下層
    • 通常は、抵当権付きは安全だが、異常時にはAAAも水没
  • Credit bubbles:
    • % of disposable income:
      • 90% in the late 1990s
      • 133% in 2007
    • More money flowed into a less regulated financial system, and the banks took greater risks with it.
    • Fewer people understood and were less transparent.
    • Derivative: credit-default swaps
      • Seller receives money in exchange for an agreement to purchase or sell at some specified future date.
  • CDO Market:
    • from $157B/2004 to $520B/2006
  • Iceland:
    • 300K people
    • 2003: $ a few billion of 3 biggest banks had assets
    • 2007: $140B
    • 2008/10: $100B banking loss = $330K per capita loss
    • Icesave.com: high rate of interest
    • Ponzi scheme
  • 与信バブル:
    • 与信率
      • 90%/1990年代後半
      • 133%/2007
  • CDO市場:
    • $157B/2004
    • $520B/2006
  • アイスランド: 人口30万
    • 2003: 3大銀行の総資産:
      $数B/2003→$140B/2007
    • 2008/10: $100B損失
    • ネズミ講
  • From 11/9 to 9/11:
    • 1989.11.9: Berlin Wall fell
    • 2001.9.11: Event on September 11
    • 11/9 - 9/11:
      • a period of triumph for American ingenuity
      • a period of crisis for American spirit
      • quixotic campaigns to bring democracy to Afghanistan and Iraq.
    • Greatest Generation: put on their gravestone:
      • "they gave their today for our tomorrow. "
    • D. Reagan era:
      • America could go from a technology-based, export-oriented powerhouse to a service-led, consumption-based economy.
    • G. W. Bush era:
      • US national savings rate plummeted to near zero.
      • consumer debt climbed from $8T to $14T.
      • It marked the first tie US has cut taxes during a war an act of utter fiscal recklessness.
  • 11/9から9/11:
    • 1998.11.9: ベルリンの壁崩壊
    • 2001.9.11: 9/11事件
    • 11/9 - 9/11:
      • アメリカは創意の勝利で、同時にアメリカ精神の危機
      • ドンキホーテ的戦争
    • 偉大な世代の墓標:
      • "我々の明日のために彼らの今日を捧げた"
    • D. レーガン時代:
      • 技術・輸出重視からサービス・消費重視の経済へ
    • G.W.ブッシュ時代:
      • 預金金利は実質ゼロへ
      • 消費者ローンは$8兆から$14兆へ
      • 戦時の減税は初
  • After 9/11:
    • build a higher fence around a decaying infrastructure.
  • Education:
    • American dream by leveraging hard work and education. 2006 applied learning and problem-solving skills of 15-year0lds in 30 countries: US ranked 25th in math and 24th in science.
    • education failure is the largest contributing factor to the decline of the US's global competitiveness.
  • GM:
    • Why GM didn't make more fuel-efficient cars?
    • GM CEO, "GM build what the market wants"
    • Toyota doesn't talk about "the market"but about many markets.
  • 9/11以降:
    • 崩壊しつつあるインフラの周囲に高い塀を築く
  • 教育:
    • アメリカンドリームは勤勉と教育の賜物
    • 15歳テスト結果(2006) は30ヶ国中、米国は数学25位、理科24位
  • GM:
    • 省エネ車を作らない理由: "GMは市場の求める車を作る"
    • 一方トヨタは、各国の市場ニーズに対応
  • Sustainability is today's freedom crusade:
    • value of sustainability is not just a greener world: it is safer world, more just world, more politically stable world.
    • a world of scarcity always favors authoritarianism.
    • sustainable development, or sustainability provides a framework for humans to live and prosper in harmony with nature.
    • sustainability is about the disposition, the mind-set, and behaviors which shape and sustain relationships with community environment, and with nature.
    • two kind of business relationships: situational and sustainable; exploit short-term opportunities, or create long-term success.
  • America's problem:
    • bad habits, lazy thinking, and financial recklessness since the end of the Cold War.
  • World's problem:
    • getting hot, flat, and crowded; depleting natural resources, extinction of plants and animals, strengthening petrodictatorship, and accelerating climate change.
  • Code Green:
    • making America the world's leader in innovating clear power and energy-efficiency systems and inspiring an ethic of sustainability in relation to both the Market and Mother Nature.
  • 持続可能性は現代の聖戦:
    • 単なるグリーン志向ではなく、安全、正義、政治的安定の世界
    • 希少の世界は権威主義を生む
    • 持続可能な開発、自然との調和
    • コミュニティや自然との関係重視
    • ビジネスとは、短期の機会追求か長期の成功モデル構築か
  • 米国の課題:
    • 冷戦終結後の怠慢
  • 世界の課題:
    • ますますhot, flat, and crowded化の進展
  • グリーン規範:
    • 市場と自然と調和での世界リーダ
>Top

2. Where are we:

  • Energy-Climate Era:
    • clean-tech, low-carbon, net-zero energy economy
    • global-warming and soaring global population growth
      • global warming, global flattening, global crowding
  • UN Population Division report (2007):
    • 6.7B/2007 to 9.2B/2050
    • increase 2.5B in 43 yrs, which is the total size of 1950.
    • 1800: London was more than 1M city
    • 1960: 111 cities more than 1M city
    • 1995: 280 cities more than 1M city (now over 300)
  • Energy and natural resources:
    • around 2000: crowding and flattening of the world converged: global demand for energy, natural resources, and food.
    • 2004: first demand-led energy shock:
    • electricity haves vs. electricity have-nots:

2. 我々は今どこにいるのか:

  • エネルギーと気候変動の時代:
  • 国連人口報告:
    • 67億/2007
      →92億/2050
    • 43年間に25億人増加
  • エネルギーと天然資源:
    • 2000年を境に、エネルギー、天然資源、食料問題が融合
    • 2004: 需要が引き起こしたエネルギーショック
    • 電力のある者、電力のない者
  • What about hot?:
    • difference between ice age and interglacial period: 5-6ºC
    • 0.8ºC rises; the planet earth has a fever.
    • WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 10 hottest years since 1860 all occurred 1995-2005.
    • Hot met crowded: so many more people were suddenly able to improve their standards of living so much faster.
    • a big difference between 2ºC rise and 5ºC rise; manageable and unmanageable.
  • Energy poverty:
  • Biodiversity loss:
    • 2006: Baiji; Yangtze River dolphin was extinct.
    • the tree of life: when a genus goes extinct, we are cutting an entire branch off the tree.
    • 2000: the Energy-Climate Era.
  • Hotについて:
    • 氷河期と間氷期との温度差は5-6ºC
    • 0.8ºCの温度上昇は、地球のフィーバー
    • 1860年以来、最高気温の年は、1995-2005の間に集中
    • Hotとcrowdedの相乗効果
    • 0.8ºCの上昇は地球の熱病
    • WMOによると、1860年以降の最も暑い10年は1995-2005に集中
    • 2ºCと5ºCの温度上昇の差は決定的
  • エネルギー貧困:
  • 生物多様性の喪失:
  • US Carbon Copies:
    • Americum: is any group of 350M people with per capita income $15K+ and growing penchant for consumerism.
    • For many years: there were only 2 Americums in the world: North America and Europe
    • Today: China, India, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan;
    • nurturing China, india, Russia, Central Europe, South America, Middle East
    • France or Europe: 35-hour workweek, while China and India 35-hour workday.
    • No one wants to commit individual suicide, we are all committing collective suicide.
    • There will be too many (old-style) Americans.
  • Iron covers:
    • Chinese demand drove up the price of scrap metal to record levels.
    • More than 150 covers disappeared per month in Chicago.
    • today's rising economic powers: there are few virgin commons left to fuel their takeoff into capitalism.
  • Cradle to cradle concept:
    • everything is in a closed cycle.
  • Energy consumption:
    • 2K-3K kilocalories/d: needed to keep a human alive.
    • US: 230K kilocalories/d:
    • China and India consume 9-30 times less energy per person.
    • worldwide energy consumption has doubled between 1971-2004, and is expected to grow another 50% by 2030.
    • world oil demand: 86M/2007 to 116M/2030 bbl/d.
    • if China and India consumed as much oil as US, the world oil consumption would be more than 200M bbl/d
  • 米国のコピー国:
    • Americum: 人口350M、一人当たり$15+、消費性向
    • 従来はAmericumは2つ
    • 現在は、この他、中国、インド、シンガポール、マレーシア、ベトナム、タイ、インドネシア、台湾、豪州、ニュージーランド、香港、韓国、日本、ロシア、中欧、南ア、中東
  • マンホールの蓋:
    • 屑鉄として盗難
  • ゆりかごからゆりかごまで:
  • エネルギー消費:
    • 生存のカロリー:2-3Kキロカロリー
    • 米国人は230Kキロカロリーを消費
    • 世界の石油消費:86M bbl/d 2007
    • もし中印が、米国並の消費をすると、世界の消費は200M bbl/d以上となる。
  • Oil and Islam:
    • 1.5B Muslims in the world
    • 2/3 of ME population is under 25
    • 1/4 are unemployed
    • center of gravity of Islam:
      • Mediterranean urban (Cairo-Istanbul-Casablanca-Damascus) Islam
      • Salafi Saudi puritanical desert Islam
    • Saudi invested in culture and arts.
      • 5star hotel's Saudi owner banned alcohol in 2008; a hotel in Egypt without alcohol is like a beach without a sea.
      • in purely ideological terms there is very little difference between Saudi Arabia (a key US ally) and those of al-Qaeda (a key US enemy) It their means that differ.
      • Madrassa system:targeted the impoverished students the public system failed; providing million of Pakistan's parents with their only opportunity to educate their children.
      • it will push Islam of Mediterranean to toward the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.
    • Saudi Arabia's oil revenue:
      • 90-95% of total Saudi export
      • 70-80% of state revenues
  • 石油とイスラム:
    • 世界のイスラム教徒1.5B
    • 2/3は25歳以下
    • 1/4は失業者
    • イスラムの中心:
      • 地中海イスラム
      • 砂漠イスラム
    • サウジは文化芸術に投資
    • 5星ホテルを禁酒に
    • サウジとアルカイダの関係
    • イスラムのマドラッサ学校
  • oil_islamOil and freedom:
    • First Law of Petropolitics:
      The higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more that free speech, free press, free and fair elections, freedom of assembly, government transparency, judicial independence, rule of law, and the formation of independent political parties and NGO's are eroded.
    • The higher the price goes, the less petrolist leaders care about what the world thinks or says about them.
  • 石油と自由: <左図>
    • 石油政治の法則
    • 石油価格の上昇は、自由な言論や自由な選挙、政府の透明性、法の独立、NGOの活動などを阻害
  • Resource curse:
    • Dutch disease:
      The process of deindustrialization that can come out as a result of a natural resource windfall.
    1. the currency rises:
      • The strong currency in effect raises the price of the nation's goods, making manufactured exports very noncompetitive and imports very cheap
      • the domestic manufacturing sector gets wiped out and you have deindustrialization.
      • Resource curse:
        the way a dependence on natural resources can skew a country's political, investment, and education priorities.
      • The motto of the petrolist authoritarian sate is "No taxation, so no representation, either. (American Revolution was "No taxation without representation")
    2. Spending effect:
      • Oil wealth leads to greater patronage spending, which in turn dampens pressures for democratization.
    3. Repression effect:
      • to spend excessively on police, internal security, and intelligence forces that can be used to choke democratic movements.
    4. Antimodernization effect:
      • Massive oil wealth tends to diminish pressures for occupational specialization, urbanization and higher levels of education.
  • 資源の呪い
    • オランダ病:
      非工業化は、天然資源である風車のせいで進行
    1. 通貨高騰:
      輸出競争力減退、輸入依存増大
    2. 支出効果:
      縁故による大判振る舞い
    3. 抑圧効果:
      治安組織の過剰化
    4. 反近代化効果:
      高等教育減退
  • Innovation economy:
    • We have gone from agricultural economy (having more land) to industrial economy (using more materials) to information economy (gathering more information quickly) and now to innovation economy (creating more productivity, comfort, housing, mobility, power, and entertainment with fewer inputs). We have to extract wealth and energy from minds, not from mines, from wellsprings of innovation, not wells of oil.
  • Adaptation:
    • A strategy for adaptation: humans have already put enough additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Climate change is already baked in.
    • EPA (Environmental Protection Agency): the ability of ecosystems to adapt to climate change is severely limited by the effect of urbanization, barriers to migration paths, and fragmentation of ecosystems....
    • Bottom line:
      1. Conservation
      2. Clean electron
      3. Energy efficiency
      4. Adaptation
      5. Family planning: fewer mouths, fewer homes
  • イノベーション経済:
    • 農業経済:大規模な耕作地
    • 工業経済:大量原料
    • 情報経済:大量迅速な情報
    • イノベーション経済は、少ないインプットで高い生産性、快適さ、居住、移動性、電力、娯楽を追求
  • 我々の適応:
    • 人類はすでに環境に過大な負荷を与えている
    • EPA (環境保護庁)
    • 最低ライン:
      1. 節約
      2. クリーンエネルギー
      3. エネルギー効率
      4. 適応
      5. 家族計画
>Top

3. How we move forward :

  • World energy usage:
    • 2000: world's total energy usage was 13T watts (13TW)
    • the figure is expected to double by 2050 to around 26T watts.
    • if we want to avoid doubling of CO2, we must cut global CO2 emission by 2050 by close to 80%, relative to current levels - starting today.
    • An average nuclear plant produces about 1B watts (1GW).
    • So if we tried to get all power between now and 2050 (13GW) just from nuclear power, we would have to build 13,000 new nuclear reactors, or roughly one new reactor every day for the next 36 years - starting today.
    • It will ruin our economy and is a project which we can't afford to do.

3. 我々の向かうべき道:

  • 世界のエネルギー消費:
    • 2000年の世界エネルギー消費:13Tワット (13TW)
    • これは2050年には倍増 (26TW)の見込み
    • CO2排出を抑えるには、2050年までに80%削減必要-本日から
    • 原発の平均出力は1GW
    • もし2050年までの需要増加をすべて原発で行うとしたら、新規の原発を13,000基建設が必要。これは今後36年間に亘って毎日新規の原発を建設しなければならない
    • これは経済の破壊であり、全く不可能

Smart Grid: the Energy Internet

  • The smart grid made large-scale renewable energy practical.
  • In old days, it was very hard for any utility to depend on wind or solar for more than 20% of its power supply, because it had to be backed up with extra natural gas power plants for those days when the sun didn't shine or the wind didn't blow.
  • But now that we've moved to the Energy Internet - utilities an run your refrigerator or adjust your thermostat. It can match the supply with the demand. Therefore, it can use more of these renewable power sources at much lower cost.
  • When clouds block out the sun or the wind dies down, the utility's smart grid lowers demand by raising prices or by adjusting your home temperature settings. And when the sun shines or the wind howls, the utility runs yours dryer at the lowest price.
  • There is now a direct correlation between how smart your grid is, how much energy efficiency it can generate, and how much renewable power it can use.
  • スマートグリッド:
    =エネルギー・インターネット
    • これにより再生可能エネルギーが現実的に
    • 以前は、電力会社は太陽光や風力発電に20%依存依存するのは困難だった。ガスタービン火力の予備が必要なので。
    • 今やエネルギー・インターネットが可能になった。電力会社側で需要をコントロールできる。
    • 太陽光や風力発電の状況次第で、電力料金をこまめに変更することで需要を抑制できる。
    • スマートグリッドは、^エネルギー効率と再生可能エネルギーの活用に直接関連する。
  • Clean Energy System:
    • Smart grid is vitally necessary to drive energy efficiency, to reduce demand, and to reduce emissions, but it alone is not sufficient.
    • We also need abundant, clean, reliable, and cheap electrons to feed into the smart grid and create a complete Clean Energy System - for the power plant, to transmission line, to your car.
    • We don't need a Manhattan Project (a secret government-led initiative) for clean energy; we need a market for clean energy.
    • We need 10,000 innovators to produce all sorts of breakthroughs and energy efficiency.
    • We need huge demand - crazy, wild, off-the-charts demand for existing clean power technologies. Only the market can commercialize the best of them and improve the existing ones at the scope, speed, and scale we need.
    • Markets are like gardens: You have to intelligently design and fertilize them - with the right taxes, regulations, incentives, and disincentives - so they yield the good, healthy crops necessary to thrive.
    • US government slapping 54 cents/gallon tariff on sugarcane ethanol imported from Brazil, while imposing only 1.25 cent/gallon on crude oil from Saudi Arabia.
    • We certainly don't have an intelligently designed national strategy for energy innovation and commercialization.
  • クリーンエネルギーシステム:
    • スマートグリッドはエネルギー効率、需要抑制、排出抑制には必要だが、それだけでは十分ではない。
    • クリーンエネルギー開発にマッハッタン計画は不要。
    • 1万人の発明家が必要。
    • 豊富、クリーン、高信頼、安価な太陽光発電によるクリーンエネルギーシステムの構築が必要。発電所から送電網、車に至るまでのシステムである。
    • 輸入税制についても、ブラジルかのサトウキビからのエタノールへは54 cent/gallonだが、サウジからの原油にはわずか1.25のみ。
    • エネルギー革新と商用化について米国は国家戦略がない。
  • The Prince, Machiavelli goes like this (1532):
    • It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in introducing a new order of things.
    • Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who many do well under the new.
    • This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents - who have the laws on their side - and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.
  • マキアベリ、君主論 (1532):
    • 新しいことを、管理して、実行し、まして成功させることほど難しいことない。
    • 革新者には、旧条件で成功した敵がいるし、また新条件でほどほどに防衛する者もいる。
    • 冷淡さの一部は敵の脅威から来る。敵には法律がついているし、また一部は、新しいことは長い実績がでるまでは容易には信じないという人間の不信からも来ている。
  • R&D:
    • 2007: total investment in R&D by US electric utilities: 0.15% of total revenues.
    • In most competitive industries R&D is 8-10%.
    • When was the last big breakthrough in energy in US:
      Answer is 1957 - with opening of the world's first commercial nuclear reactor, located in Shippinport, Pennsylvania.
    • Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GE: he has seen 8-9 generation of innovation in medical technology in GE's health care business (X-ray equipment, MRI, CAT scans, etc) But in power, only one generation of real innovation is all that he has seen.
    • Regulated electricity and gas utilities operate in a monopoly environment, oil companies has a tacit monopoly. Key players in energy market had little incentive to innovate.
  • R&D:
    • 2007: 米国電力のR&Dは収入の0.15%
    • 他の競争産業のR&Dは8-10%
    • 直近のエネルギーの革新は1957の初の商用原発
    • Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GE曰く、GEの医療部門では8-9回のイノベーションを経験したが、 エネルギー部門では1回のみ
    • 規制された独占企業の電力、ガス業界、実質独占の石油業界ではイノベーションの誘因はない
  • Nuclear energy:
    • US built over 100 nuclear power plants before 1979.
    • TMI (Three Mile Island, 1979) brought a halt to all nuclear plant building in US.
    • threat of a nuclear leak with today's new technology, is much less serious than the threat from climate change.
      • (Re: this was written before the Fukushima disaster in 2011/3. The opinion should be different now!)
    • But to build a new nuclear plant costs $7B, and would take 8 years from conception to completion. Most CEO's have about 8 years in office. For many utilities in prior decades, the construction of nuclear plants became "you bet your business" proposition.
    • Therefore, because of the risks of lawsuits and delays, it is probably going to take at a minimum government loan guarantees to relaunch US's nuclear industry.
    • NIMBY = "not in my backyard".
    • BANANA = "build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything." We need more nuclear power, but no one wants the waste stored near them. Wind turbines, high-voltage transmission line, liquefied natural gas terminal, coal, tidal wave power- so don't go putting them near me.
  • 原子力エネルギー:
    • 米国の原発100基:1979年以前
    • 1979TMI以降原発建設すべて中止
    • 原発漏れの脅威は、気候変動の脅威よりずっと少ない(?)
    • 新規原発建設費$7B、8年間。多くのCEO任期は8年故、新規着工の意志決定できず
    • 米国原発産業の復活には、米国政府の融資保証など必要
    • NIMBY=家の近くに作るな
    • BANANA=近くには絶対に作るな
    • 核廃棄物に限らず、風力タービン、高圧送電線、液化天然ガス基地、石炭、潮力発電など近隣への建設に反対
>Top

4. China:    

  • Can Red CHina Become Green China?
    • for some 30 years, China has grown around 10%/yr based on low-cost labor and little regard for waist and pollution.
    • China cannot afford to do what the West did; Grow now, clean up later.
  • As goes China, so goes planet earth:
    • If China continued the unprecedented pace an scale of its development in this way, which would lead to an environmental disaster.
    • China is 1/5 of humanity, now the biggest carbon emitter, the second-large important of oil, is already the largest import of Ni, Cu, Al, Fe ore, coal, and steel. Timber is as well.
  • Deng Xiaping:
    • "Black cat, white cat, all that matters is that it catches mice." - all that matters is that China grows. Now, if that cat isn't green, neither it nor the mice, nor any of the rest of us, after going to make it.

4. 中国について:

  • グリーン・チャイナになれるか:
    • 30年間、中国は低賃金と環境軽視で10%成長してきた。
    • 中国は西欧のまず成長、環境対策は後のやり方の踏襲は不可能
  • 中国は地球全体に影響:
    • もし中国がこれを続ければ環境危機は避けられない。
    • 中国の人口は世界の1/5。最大のCO2排出国で、第二の石油輸入国、Ni, Cu, Al, Fe、石炭資源およびスチール、そして木材の最大輸入国
  • 邓小平:
    • "黒猫も白猫もネズミを捕るのは良い猫だ" これは中国の成長最優先を言っている。今やこの猫やネズミや他の誰でも緑色でなければやっていけない。
  • Green GDPism:
    • China's leaders tried to engineer Green GDPism the same way they did the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward from the top down. But it didn't work. Now they are trying a more top-down-plus-bottom-up approach.
    • It appears switching from dirty capitalism to relatively clean capitalism without having to slow down the bus too much.
  • China's State Environmental Protection Agency:
    • Chinese population is constantly growing: 1.3B to 1.5B in 2020. Cities are growing but desert areas are expanding at the same time; habitable and usable land has been halved over the past 50 years. Acid rain is falling on 1/3 of territory, half of the water in 7 largest rivers is useless, while 1/4 citizens does not have access to clean drinking water. 1/3 of urban population is breathing polluted air. Less than 20% of the trash in cities is treated in an environmentally sustainable manner.
    • 5 of 10 most polluted cities worldwide are in China. They are losing 8-15% GDP, which does not include health cost.
  • Green GDP主義:
    • トップダウン方式でGreen GDP主義をやろうとしてもうまくいっていない。ボトムアップを組み合わせるてはいるが。
    • 汚い資本主義からややきれいな資本主義に切り替えるとき
  • 国家環境保護局:
    • 人口は現在の13億から2020年には15億人に。都市人口増加、砂漠拡大。国土の1/3で酸性雨。7つの河の半分は使用不可、住民の1/4はきれないな飲料水なし、都市の1/3の空気は汚染。適切に処理されているゴミ処理は20%以下。
    • 世界の公害都市10の内5都市は中国。その結果GDPの8-15%が損失。これには医療費は含まれない。
  • Energy use:
    • 1980-2000: China's GDP quadrupled, but its total energy usage only double.
    • 2001-2005: Growth in energy usage outpaced growth of its GDP - in 2005 it wa 40% faster.
    • China is the biggest producer and consumer of coal, using coal-fired power to meet 80% of its energy needs; it adds 1GW coal-fired power every two weeks.
    • 2007/6 State Council had ordered: airconditioning no lower than 26ºC in public buildings. But local officers are not afraid to ignore such edicts.
    • Chinese saying, "The sky is high and the emperor is far away."
  • エネルギー利用:
    • 1980-2000: 中国のGDPは4倍、但し、エネルギー消費は2倍
    • 2001-2005: エネルギー消費急増。2005年にはGDPの伸びより40%多い。
    • 中国は石炭の最大の供給&消費国で、エネルギーの80%は石炭依存。各週で1GWの石炭火力発電所を建設
    • 2007/6には国務院は公共建物の冷房温度設定を26ºC以上とするよう布告。但し、地方には徹底していない。
    • 中国の格言:"天は高く皇帝は遠い"
  • Political system is on 5 layers:
    • National, province, municipal, county, and township.
    • Annual performance evaluations are pegged to GDP growth. Informally, local officials personally benefit financially from holding positions in key firms. (vanilla corruption)
  • To do effectively:
    • judicial independence
    • freer press
    • transparent laws and regulations
    • citizen activists
    • growth based on sustainable energy productivity
  • 中国の行政区:
    • 国家、省、県、郡、町
    • 風力は現在の7%→16% (2020).
    • 電力差別料金制:
      効率の良い工場には料金割引
    • 非効率な小規模発言の閉鎖、計50GW (総電力の8%相当)
  • 2006/1/1:
    • China instituted a national renewable energy mandate (of the sort US Congress rejected in 2007)
    • particularly wind, hydro, and biomass to 16% by 2020. (Today 7%). Also adopted word-class mileage standards for its cars.
    • Differential pricing system:
      Power companies now charge higher electricity prices to the least efficient industrial concerns and lower prices to the more efficient one. So the most efficient steel mill wins in two ways, by having lower energy use and lower energy prices.
    • shutting down its most inefficient small power plants, totaling 50 GW (or 8% of China's total generating capacity) by 2010.
    • They should be more efficient quickly; considering Chinese energy consumption is growing 15% a year, while US 1-2%.
  • 2006/1/1:
    • 中国:国家再生エネルギー命令
    • 特に、風力、水力、バイオマス (現在7%→16%/2020)
    • 個別価格政策
    • 非効率小規模発電プラントの閉鎖
    • エネルギーの効率化推進 (エネルギー成長率は、米国1-2%に対し、中国は年15%)
  • Green movement:
    • historically have stared as grassroots movements in democratic societies. They start from the bottom up.
    • Sustainability issues are extraordinary sociopolitical changes in China today.
    • Net-zero building:
      with passive lighting, solar exterior, or wind turbines that can generate their own energy during the day and take from the grid only at night so that they are net-zero energy consumers.
  • Clean-tech industry in China:
    • an acute economic interest in promoting green laws & regulations so that it can sell more of its products around China, build its strength and cut its cost using China's big market, and then leverage all that to grow globally.
      • Dalian: a cutting-edge clean-tech heat pump technology recovers thermal energy from seawater.
      • Suntech Power Holdings: silicon photovoltaic solar cells, converting sunlight into electricity
      • Wind energy industry: grew 100% during 2005-2007. Wind development target of 5GW by the end of 2007.
      • 40M electric scooters and bicycles in China.
    • China is just beginning to move from copying to creating: the last time was in full creative mode they invented paper, compass, and gunpowder.
  • Leadership:
    • Leadership is not about "after you." It's about "follow me." Becoming the greenest, most energy-efficient: just like a competition to see who could put a mon on the moon first. Only instead, it is a race to preserve humankind on earth. In this race, either we will all win or we will all lose.
    • Ditlev Engel, CEO of Vestas 2008/8; Denmark's and the world's biggest wind turbine company: In the last 18 months we've had 35 new competitors coming out of China, but not one out of US.
  • グリーン運動:
    • 歴史的にはボトムアップで進展
    • "Sustainability"は社会政治的に画期的な変化
    • ネットゼロエネルギーのビル:太陽光、風力活用
  • 中国のクリーン技術産業:
    • 中国の競争力として鋭意推進。法整備→国内市場→輸出産業指向
      • 大連:海水利用のヒットポンプ
      • 太陽光発電セル
      • 風力:2GW/2007目標
      • 電気スクーター、自転車(40M台)
    • 中国はコピー産業から創造産業へ:紙・羅針盤・火薬以来の本格的発明へ
  • リーダシップ:
    • グリーン競争は、かつての人類の月面着陸競争のような競争。それは人類が地上に生存し得るかという競争。但し、勝者と敗者を決めるのではなく、すべてが勝者かすべてが敗者となる。
    • デンマークの世界最大の風力タービン会社Vesta社長曰く(2008/8):過去18ヶ月の間に中国の競合会社18社、米国はゼロ
>Top

5. America:

  • A biologist E.O. WIlson:
    • Bees, ants, and termites, though not very smart individually, display high intelligence collectively. People seem just the opposite.
  • We are all Pilgrims again:
    • We are all sailing on the Mayflower anew. We have not been to this shore before. If we fail to recognize that, we will, indeed, become just one more endangered species. But if we rise to this challenge and truly become the Re-Generation - redefining green and rediscovering, reviving, and regeneration America - we, and the world, will not only survive but thrive in an age that is hot flat, and crowded.

5. 米国について:

  • ある生物学者:
    • 蜂や蟻やシロアリは、個々にはスマートではないが、全体となると高い知性を示す。人間はまるで逆である。
  • 我々は再び移住者:
    • 今、新たなメイフラワー号の出帆の時。今度の陸地はまだ未知である。もし到達できなければ人類は種としての危機に陥る。そこへは是が非でも到達してグリーンの再生を図らねばならない。それはアメリカだけの問題ではなく、世界にとってこのホット、フラット、クラウデッドの時代の生き残り策だからである。
Comment
  • This book gives us a warning of urgent global matters as a complex problem including environment, population problem and economics, particularly referring the contrast of US vs. China-India situation.
  • 本書は、地球環境と人口問題と経済問題を含む複合課題について、特に米国と中印を対比的に取り上げて、現代の課題を警告している。

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