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Turbulence in US Democracy

- from his 'serious chatting' -

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2023
#: 2308

Kan Itoh (伊藤貫) et.al.


Turbulence in US Democracy

  1. Introduction:
  2. Rethinking Freedom and Democracy:
  3. US Unipolar Hegemonism:
  4. Ukraine Issue:
  5. Yoshiaki Yano: Former Ground Defense Force; MG:
  6. Vladimir Putin's carrier:
  7. Six Paradigms of International Politics:
  8. Plato's Philosophy and Independence of a State:
  1. 序章
  2. 自由と民主主義再考:
  3. 米国一極覇権主義:
  4. ウクライナ問題:
  5. 矢野義昭: 元陸上自衛隊・陸将補 :
  6. プーチンの経歴:
  7. 国際政治学の6つのパラダイム:
  8. プラトン哲学と国家の独立:
; Cancel culture; Cognitive dissonance; Common goods; Conservative-1 Aggessive; Conservative-2 Defensive; Conservative-3 Hegemony; Coup d'état; Deep state; Democratic peace; It's your people...; Liberal-1 Interdependent; Liberal-2 Institutional; Liberal-3 Democracy; Rule of Law; A. Tocqueville; Unipolar hegemonism; ; ;

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • Background of the speaker:
    • Kan Itoh: In 1953 born in Tokyo. Graduated Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. Studied international politics at Cornell University. Later became an international political & economic analyst at a business consulting firm in Washington D.C., where he has lived for more than 30 years.
    • Yoshiaki Yano: In 1950 born in Osaka. Graduated Faculty of Engineering and Faculty of Literature. Joined the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force as a general officer cadet. Ranked Major General. Now is a a visiting professor at Takushoku University and Gifu Women's University. An advisor to the Japan Society of Security and Crisis Management.

0. 序章:

  • 発言者紹介:
    • 伊藤貫: 1953東京出身。東大経済学部卒。コーネル大学で国際政治学を学ぶ。その後ワシントンのビジネスコンサルティング会社で国際政治・経済アナリスト。ワシントンに30年以上在住。
    • 矢野義昭: 1950大阪出身。京都大学工学部&文学部卒。陸上自衛隊一般幹部候補生として入隊。陸将補。拓殖大学・岐阜女子大学客員教授。日本安全保障・危機管理学会顧問。

>Top 1. Rethinking Freedom and Democracy

  • It has been said only since 78 years (1945) that democracy is a universally good system.
    • Until then, there had been a lot of skeptical debate about the democratic system.
    • Typical examples are 1) Plato, 2) Alexis de Tocqueville, and 3) Daniel Ortega, Nicaraguan President. They argued that democracy would further deteriorate the people's ability to judge values.
    • The people's ability to judge values depends on their religion, philosophy, customs and traditions. Those are not formed by the opinion of the majority.
    • After 19C, as Jeremy Bentham said, the majority came to be as winning, such as the greatest happiness of the greatest number.
    • This idea leads to that the people will engage in politics whether it brings short-term gains and losses. If such politics continues for 60 or 70 years, the politics will sure to deteriorate.
    • Thus, both Plato and Aristotle argued that this tendency ultimately leads to demagoguery and even despotism or dictatorship.
  • Recent US political situation:
    • US seems to have reached this stage: in the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Hillary put into circulation a story of Putin's conspiracy together with FBI and MI6, which caused later so far as to impeach President Trump for it.
    • During the 2020 presidential election, a large amount of secret information about bribery crimes committed by Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden was discovered on a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden. The FBI and Blinker, Secretary of State controlled the coverage of it (not only mass media but also SNS) and covered it up. Furthermore, 51 heads of US security organizations including the past five CIA directors, FBI, NSA, and Pentagon, all of those condemned this as a Russian conspiracy.
    • Regarding to the questionable mail-in ballots cast at the last election, the process of authenticity (ID and signature check) is omitted due to no time. What more, rewards are paid based on the number of mail-in ballots brought in, which is called 'Ballot Harvesting.' Since the FBI didn't investigate these allegations, causing the result of 2020 presidential election to remain in doubt.
    • The forthcoming 2024 presidential election will sure to be extraordinary one as strange as the past two elections. Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican candidate, who is consistently getting around 45% support in Republican supporters.
    • In response, democrats have launched four dubious accusations against Trump; 1) Accounting fraud in the real estate business (almost 20 years ago), 2) Defeat of the civil rape trial in NY (20 years ago, which was not a criminal offense), 3) Indictment in the 2020 election interference trial in Georgia state, and 4) Suspicion of keeping confidential government documents at home during the president's era.
    • The author, Kan Itoh, himself supports Democratic Party (in particular Bernie Sanders, or Robert Kennedy Jr. this time). He considers that Trump is full of inconsistencies as a politician, probably grown up as an bad guy, while Hillary and Obama particularly seem more ruthless villains. Also it is true Trump himself dislikes to conduct war; he actually ordered that there should be no casualties when US launched 100 retaliatory missiles in Syria. He also insists that Japan should be more self-defensive, including nuclear defense if needed, making less commitment of US for Japan's security.
  • >Top Forecast of the coming 2024 Presidential Election:
    • If it became Biden vs, Trump, Trump would win, and if it became R. Kennedy Jr. vs. Trump, Kennedy might wing.
    • R. Kennedy Jr. had his uncle President JFK assassinated when he was 10 years old, then his father was also assassinated when 14 years old. He convinced that the CIA was behind all of these assassinations. At that time there was a military attack plan on Cuba (coded Operation Bay of Pigs, or Invasión de Bahía de Cochinos). JFK ordered the operation be halted, and the CIA's plan was thwarted. The three top CIA officials were replaced. Robert Kennedy immediately summoned the new CIA director to his home and asserted about the JFK assassination, uttering "It's your people who killed my brother!" Though Robert Kennedy, the Attorney General is the boss of the CIA, no investigation was done.
    • Regarding the current Ukraine war, R. Kennedy Jr. argues that it is an unnecessary war. Despite then Secretary of State James Baker (of papa Bush administration) assured that NATO would not expand eastward even an inch, President Bush Jr. changed course in 2008, promoting Ukraine's joining into NATO, and the presence of US troops there. The ambassador to Russian at that time, William Burns (who is current CIA director) warned the White House and State of Department that this change in policy would lead to war with Russia.
    • Then, in 2004, Victoria Nuland (then assistant secretary of State for European Affairs, now Deputy Secretary of State) carried out a coup d'état against Ukraine's democratically elected president Yanukovych (Maidan Revolution). After that, the Ukrainian military was reorganized as a subordinate organization of US military and was trained to attack Russia.
    • R. Kennedy Jr. (69) observed that this coup d'état resembling the very operation against Cuba (by Pentagon, CIA, and State Department, which JFK sought to stop. R. Kennedy Jr. argues that US would become even more corruptive unless he demonstrates a sense of duty to correct the corruption of US foreign and military policy.
    • Regarding the poll of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidates, US mass media polls are announcing Biden at about 60%, while R. Kennedy Jr. at about 20%. However the internal research organization of the Democratic Party (Democratic National Committee), the actual difference of the poll looks like about only 10% or less. Moreover, R. Kennedy Jr. seems to have an advantage in the northern white majority constituency. The presidential primaries in US usually starts from Iowa to New Hampshire, and then South Carolina; but Democratic Party leaders consider to cancel the first and second primaries due to the disadvantage to Biden).
    • Both Trump and R. Kennedy Jr. have announced that if they became the next US president, they would end the neocon-led war in Ukraine. Neocons began as a group of Jewish Trotskyists in 1930s, later infiltrating the liberal wing of the Democratic Party as well as parts of the Republican Party. Neocons performed the Iraq War.
    • >Top Both Trump and R. Kennedy Jr. insist that US government is actually controlled by Wall St. financiers and Neocons (=Deep State), not by the American people or mass media.
    • Cancel culture: This is an attitude of refusing the other party to discuss with from the beginning, or of refusing to acknowledge the other party's right to speak. Additionally, 60-70% of Americans do not trust the mass media, which will undermined the premise of democracy.
    • In US, though the rich class has succeeded as a capitalish, which is far from the Aristocracy in Europe, lacking cultural knowledge. Globalism in favor of American-stype democracy which US spread worlwide is said to lack understanding of cultures of other countries, which it the main reason why it does not go well.
      • US mass media are owned by top 0.1% or rich people, such that Washington Post is owned by Amazon's Jeffrey Bezos, NY Times by Arthur Sulzberger, Wall Street Journal by Keith Rupert Murdock.
      • US society is becoming increasingly divided; traditional WASPs becoming a minority and leaning towards rich people or identity politics supporters.

1. 自由と民主主義再考:

  • 民主政治が普遍的な良い制度であると言われだしたのは最近の78年間 (1945以降)のことである。
    • それまでは民主制度に懐疑的な議論は多々あった。
    • 代表的なのは、1)プラトン、2)トクビル、3)オルテガである。民主主義は、国民の価値判断能力がますます劣化するとした。
    • 国民の価値判断能力は、宗教・哲学・習慣・伝統に依る。それらは多数派の意見によって形成されてきたのではない。
    • 19C以降は、ベンサムの言うように最大多数の最大幸福のように多数派が勝ちであると見做すようになった。
    • そうなるとその場その場は、国民は目先の損得に迎合する政治をやるようになる。そのような政治を60年70年行うと、政治は劣化していく。
    • プラトンもアリストテレスも、この傾向は最終的にはデマゴーグとなり、さらには専制主義や独裁政治をやるようになる。
  • 最近の米国政治情勢:
    • 現在の米国は、もはやこの段階に来ている。2016年のヒラリー対トランプの大統領選挙でも、ヒラリー側がFBIとMI6を巻き込んだプーチン陰謀説を流布した。それはトランプの弾劾まで行った。
    • 2020年の大統領選挙では、バイデンの息子のハンター・バイデン所有のラップトップの中に、バイデン親子の賄賂犯罪の情報が多数発見された。それをFBIとブリンケン国務長官がそれの報道管制をして(メディアのみならずSNSも含め)隠蔽工作をした。過去5人のCIA長官を含む51人の米国のセキュリティ関連組織;FBI, NSA, Pentagonのトップが揃って、これをロシアの陰謀と断罪した。
    • さらに疑義のある数百万票の郵便投票が行われた。郵便投票は、開票の際にその真偽(IDや署名を)をチェックしていない。しかもBallot harvestingと言って、持ち込んだ郵便投票の数量によって報酬金が支払われる。FBIも司法省これらの疑義を調査していないので、2020の大統領選挙結果については疑義が残ったままである。
    • 2024年の大統領選挙については、過去2回の選挙同様大変な状況になりそう。共和党候補は、トランプの支持率が常に45%程度の支持を集めておりほぼ確定的。
    • 民主党は、トランプに対する4つの疑わしい告発を開始している。1)不動産業の経理の不正(20年前), 2) NYでの強姦民事裁判(20数年前), 3) Geogia州の選挙妨害裁判起訴, 4)大統領時代の極秘書類の自宅保存疑惑。
    • 伊藤貫氏は、むしろ民主党支持(Birnie Sandars、Robert Kennedy Jr.)。トランプは悪人ではないか、やることは支離滅裂な悪ガキ的。ヒラリー、オバマの方が冷酷な悪人。トランプは、戦争を忌避していることは事実。シリアでの米国の報復ミサイル100発打ち込む際も死傷者を出さないことを指示。日本に対しても核を含む自主防衛すべきと主張し、米国が巻き込まれることを嫌っている。
  • 2024年大統領選挙:
    • 2024の大統領選挙では、Biden対TrumpならTrump、Rober Kennedy Jr. 対TrumpならKenneyが勝ちそう。
    • R. Kennedy Jr.は10歳のときJFK大統領が、14歳の時父親が暗殺された経歴を持つ。いずれもCIAが背後にあることは明らか。状況証拠としては、当時のキューバの軍事攻撃の計画(Bay of Piggs作戦)があった。JFK はこの作戦の中止命令を出し、CIAの計画が頓挫。CIAトップ3人を更迭した。当時のRobert Kennedyは、JFK暗殺報道の直後新CIA長官を呼び出し言明した。"It's your people who killed my brother." 司法長官はCIAの上司であるにもかかわらず捜査は行われなかった。
    • 今回のウクライナ戦争に対しても、R. Kenney Jr.は必要ない戦争であると主張。James Baker国務長官はNATOの東方への拡大は1インチもしないと確約していたにもかかわらず、Bush Jr.大統領は2008にウクライナのNATO加盟と米軍進駐に方針転換した。当時の駐ロ大使はWilliam Burns (現CIA長官)はWhite House と国務省に対し、この方針転換はロシアとの戦争に発展すると警告した。
    • その後、実際に2004にVictoria Nuland (当時欧州担当国務次官補、現国務省次官) がウクライナで民主的な選挙で選ばれたヤヌコビッチ大統領に対するクーデターを実行した。(マイダン革命) その後、ウクライナ軍を米軍の下部組織として再編し、ロシアに対する攻撃能力を訓練した。
    • R. Kenndy Jr.(69)の観察では、これはJFKが止めようとした(Pentagon, CIA, 国務省による)対キューバ作戦そのものであるとした。R. Kennedy Jr. は、米国の外交政策と軍事政策の腐敗を正すことの使命感を発揮しなければ、米国はますます腐敗することを主張。
    • 2024民主党大統領候補の世論調査では、米国のマスコミ調査では、Biden 60%、R. Kennedy Jr. 20%位と発表している。しかし。民主党独自の調査機関 (Democratic National Committe)によれば実際の差は10数%しかないとの認識。しかも北部の白人多数の選挙区では、R. Kennedy Jr.の方が優勢とのこと。米国の大統領予備選はIowa→New Hamshire→South Carolinaの順だが、民主党はこの1/2の予備選を (Bidenが不利なので) 行わないことに決めた。
    • TrumpもR. Kennedy Jr.いずれも、次期大統領になれば、即座にネオコンが起こしたこのウクライナ戦争を終結させると表明している。ネオコンは、1930年代のユダヤ人のトロツキストグループから始まり、その後民主党リベラル派や共和党の一部に入り込み、イラク戦争を起こした。
    • TrumpもR. Kennedy Jr.も、米国の政府を支配しているのは、米国国民でもマスコミでもなく、Wall Street Financerとネオコンである(=Deep State)としている。
    • Cancel culture: 最初から相手とに話し合いを拒否する姿勢、あるいは相手の発言権を認めない態度。さらに米国では60-70%が、マスコミを信用していないとの調査がある。これは民主主義の前提が崩れている。
    • 米国は、金持ち階級は、資本主義としては成功したが、欧州のAristcracyと異なり文化的素養に欠ける。米国的民主主義を世界に広げるGlobalismは、相手国の文化に関する理解が欠落しており、うまく行かない原因であるとしている。
      • 米国のマスコミ、Washington PostのOwnerはAmazonの Jeff Bezos、NY TimesもArthur Sulzberger、Wall Street JournalはKeith Rupert Murdochなど、トップ0.1%の金持ちが所有しており、彼らの不利な情報は流さない。
      • 米国の社会は、従来のWASPが少数派となり、金持ちか、またはIdentity Politicsへ傾斜して分裂化が顕著になりつつある。

>Top 2. US Unipolar Hegemonism:

  • Unipolar Hegemonism:
    • US has promoted Unipolar hegemonism for the past 30 years (since dissolution of the Soviet Union), whose slogan is that to intervene militarily in the name of expanding freedom and democracy around the world.
    • Numerous Coup d'etat plans:
      Actually, US has caused various coup d'état and overthrown various democratically selected governments one after another: 1953 in Iran, 1954 in Guatemala, 1963 in South Vietnam, 1964 in Brazil, 1973 in Chile, 2013 in Egypt, 2014 in Ukraine, and recently 2022/3-4 in Pakistan; has overthrown Prime Minister Imran Ahmad and implemented its regime change. (Cf. INTERSCTPT News)
    • Are liberalism and democracy omnipotent? Isn't it rather a minority of the world that deserves this? The majority is not necessarily right.
    • About 2,400 years ago, Socrates and Plato in ancient Greece had discussed on this matter in Athens, which was then liberal and democratic city. During the discussion Socrates was killed and Plato was forced to live in exile for more than ten years.
    • There should be quality in the concept of freedom; in other words, there is shallow-minded freedom and deep-thinking freedom. If we allowed poor quality freedom, civilization and society would soon deteriorate. Low-quality hedonism and vulgar liberalism are not only completely different but out of the question. We should consider the quality of freedom how it is valuable to humans and civilization; which was the point Socrates and Plato argued long time ago.
    • In particular, all political or military actions cannot be justified solely by slogans of freedom and democracy.
  • Situation in Ukraine (as of 2023/8):
    • Comparison of basic statistics of Russia vs. Ukraine:
      • Economic power: Russia 20 vs. Ukraine 1
      • Mobilization of troops: R6 vs. U1
      • Supply of bullets: R4-6 vs. U1; Ukraine inventory is running out around 2023/10.
      • War causalities: R1 vs. U3-7 (R 70K-80K vs. U 400K-800K); Ukraine army is in the process of collapsing, which may cause military rebellion, etc. Ukraine continues insistent of offensive attacks without sufficient forces on the southern front.
      • US government assumed two strategies:
        • Plan-A: making unrest situation against Putin within Russia, weakening Russia or causing possible division or civil war.
        • Plan-B: debilitating war for 5-10 years or more to deteriorate economy of Russia.
      • Russia's next probable strategy:
        • Occupation of Odessa and naval blockade. Occupation of Kharkov means 36% domination by Russian; which effectively nullifies Plan-B, then Russia may agree to a ceasefire.
        • Russia promotes Euro-Asianism, shifting more Russian economy eastward, to Asia. (shown Vladivostok Forum 2023)
  • US proponents of Ukraine war:
    • The most active promoters are four people; President Joe Biden and Jacob J. Sullivan, National Security Advisor to President, as well as Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State (Hungarian Jews), and Victoria Nuland, Deputy Secretary of State. (Jewish immigrant with last name Nudelman)
    • Pentagon and CIA seem to enforce Russia just like Afganistanization during the Soviet intervention.
    • On the other hand, as a result, Sino-Russian alliance would be strengthened over the next few years, trying jointly to drive US out of East Asia.
    • According to the promotion of multipolar world, China and Russia may restore cooperative relations with US-Europe (including Japan) .

2. 米国一極覇権主義

  • 一極覇権主義 (Unipolar Hegemonism):
    • 米国は、過去30年、Unipolar hegemonismを推進。スローガンとしては、世界に自由と民主主義を拡大するためとして軍事介入してきた。
    • 数々のCoup d'etat計画:
    • 次々と民主的な政権をクーデターを起こし て次々と崩壊させた。1953年にはイラン、1954にはガテマラで、1963年には南ベトナムで、1964にはブラジルで、1973にはチリで、2013にエジプトで、2014ウクライナで、2022/3-4パキスタン、Imran Ahmad Khan首相の失脚を画策し、レジームチェンジを実施 (INTERSCTPT News)
    • 自由主義と民主主義は万能なのか。それがふさわしいのは、むしろ世界の少数派ではないのか。多数派が正しいとは限らない。
    • 2400年前にソクラテスとプラトンはアテネでこの議論をしていた。当時のアテネは自由主義と民主主義だった。ソクラテスは殺され、プラトンは十数年外国暮らしをせざるを得なかった。
    • FreedomにはQualityがある。即ち、Shallow minded freedom, Deep-thinking freedomとがある。質の悪い自由を認めてしまうと文明も社会も堕落していく。質の低い快楽主義的、下品な自由主義では全く異なる。この人間や文明にとって価値のある自由の質を考慮する必要がある(とソクラテスとプラトンは主張)
    • すべての政治、軍事行動は、自由と民主主義のスローガンだけでは正当化できない。
  • ウクライナ情勢 (2023/8):
    • ロシア対ウクライナの基本数値: 経済力 20:1、兵員動員力 6:1、弾丸 4-6:1 (23/10在庫なくなりつつある)。戦傷者 1: 3-7 (7-8万: 40-80万); ウ軍は崩壊状態。軍の反乱が起こる可能性。南部戦線でも無理が攻撃を継続。
      • Plan-A: ロシア国内で動乱発生し、ロシアの弱体化あるいは分裂・内乱状態
      • Plan-B: 5-10年 debilitating war (長期的にロシアを弱体化させる戦争)
    • ロシアの次の戦略:
      • ロシアは、現在22%占領状態では、残りのウクライナは継続的に敵対
      • オデッサ占領で海上封鎖。ハリコフ地域 36%占領してPlan-Bを有効に実現できない状態での停戦をしたい。
      • ロシア経済の中心をEuro-Asianism: アジアへ以降
  • 米国のウクライナ戦争継続派:
    • 特にWhite House (バイデンとサリバン)、国務省(ブリンケンとヌーランド)の4人が主導。
    • PentagonとCIAには、ソ連介入時のアフガニスタン化を意図しているように思われる。7000発の核弾頭を保有するロシアの弱体化を狙う。
    • 結果として、今後数年間は、実質的な中露同盟強化が進行する。中露共同で米国を東アジアから追い出す。長期的には、世界の多極化に伴い、欧米(日)とも協力関係を回復する可能性がでてくる。

>Top 3. Ukraine Issue:

  • The essence of the Ukraine War (2022/2/24-)
    • In 1990 at the end of the Cold War, President George Bush (Papa), Secretary of State Baker, and Security Adviser Scowcroft had proposed to President Gorbachev and Foreign Ministry Shavardnadze that is USSR (Russia) would recognize German unification and withdraw Soviet troops from East Germany, NATO would never expand eastward (one inch).
    • It is reported that it started with Russia's invasion in 2022/2/24. During the process of expanding NATO, Victoria Nuland (currently US Deputy Secretary of State) entered Kiev and staged a coup d'état, ousting democratically elected President Yanukovych.
    • Shortly after that, she reorganized the Ukrainian military as a subordinate organization of US military, providing large amount of US-made weapons and conducted US-style training of the Ukrainian military to the level of capability of attacking Russia. Those efforts continued for 6-7 years.
    • On 2014/9/5 Putin recognized that if Ukraine continued to increase its military strength like that, it would become a threat for Russia (particularly for Donbass region). Russia agreed with Ukraine with Germany and France to grant autonomy to Crimea and the Donbass region, where large ethnic Russian population live. (Minsk Protocol in 2014 and 15)
    • In fact, 15,000 ethnic Russians in Donbass region were killed by Ukrainian forces during this time.
      • But German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Orland revealed that they have arranged the Minsk Protocol to buy time and deceive Putin from the beginning.
      • The current war in Ukraine appears to have been caused by Russia being cornered by promising not to expand NATO even an inch eastward.
    • In 2022, Former Chancellor Angela Merkel said that when US announced that Ukraine would join NATO, she advised US not to do so because "that would be a virtual declaration of war." Furthermore, in the Minsk Agreements, Germany and France confessed that they had deliberately deceived Russia at the request of US; which appeared as regrettably having played a role in starting this war.
  • Ukraine is not a real historical country. Ukraine is a "country" which was politically established between 1918 and 1922. The people of Western Ukraine and that of East Ukraine are completely different in terms of history, culture, language, and religion for the past 600 years.
    • Western Ukrainians were ruled by Poland, Lithuania, and the Habsburg Empire (Austria) for a long time.
    • For the past 400-500 years, Eastern Ukraine has been controlled by the Habsburg Empire and Turkey, and since 260 years ago it has been ruled by the Russian Empire. The regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kheson were incorporated into Russia as a result of the Russo-Turkish War around 1760-1770, which were called Novorossia.
    • However after the Russian Revolution in 1917, Lenin incorporated Russians in the eastern Ukraine into Ukraine, because there were many peasants who opposed the Bolshevik revolution, which did not allow them to own land. Therefore Lenin sought to control eastern peasants with the combination of the Novorossian proletariat who support the Bolshevik.
    • Between 1922 and 1933, the Russian language began to be persecuted in Ukraine. People working in public institutions and factories were forced to speak only Ukrainian and were banned to speak Russian language and were dismissed. Even in the eastern Ukraine, the Russian speakers were discriminated and kept in poor conditions. From 1933 onwards, the use of Russian was prohibited in schools.
    • Then Hitler Germany suddenly invaded and occupied the wester Ukraine region (Galicia). Western Ukrainians welcomed and cooperated with the Nazis and started a war with Russia. (Stepan Andriyovych Bandera; announced the creation of Ukraine on 30 Jun 1941 in German-captured Lviv, pledging to work with Nazi Germany.)
    • However, the Russophobia of the Galicians (Lviv) began even before the Nazi occupation, and during WWI in 1914, tens of thousands of ethnic Russian residents, Russian Orthodox priests, and journalists were forced into concentration camps; thousands of people were massacred. (later in 1935-35 the excavation of the Concentration camp uncovered the bodies of more than 2,000 people massacred in 1914-17.
    • Stalin amplified the hatred between East and West in Ukraine by incorporating the Galicia region into Ukraine. (Thus the causes of the Ukraine war were created before Putin's involvement.)
  • Ukraine could not win.:
    • Since 2023, they have entered a War of Attrition, where the victory is determined by the number of soldiers and ammunition.
    • Comparison of economic & military power between Russia vs. Ukraine:
      • Economic power: R8 vs, U1; it became R16 vs. U1 by Russian attack to the production center in Ukraine. Currently R20 vs. U1
      • Population: R145M vs. U41.5M (28M in controlled area) R3 vs. U1, now R5 vs. U1; It is said that about 10M people already fled the country.
      • Casualties: R1 vs. U5-7 (by Pentagon confidential information)
      • Number of shots fired: R5-10 vs. U1; currently 90% from cannon shells.
      • Shortage of soldiers: Ukraine increase conscription age from 18-60 to 16-60; this is similar to the end of the German army in WWII.
  • Conflict between Globalist vs. Nationalist:
    • Idea of globalist: Nation states need to cede sovereignty in order to unite under international organizations such as MNEs, NGOs, WEF, WHO, WTO, and NATO.
    • Idea of Nationalist: Russia aims to make multipolar world, cutting off from Europe and US, and seeking its own path (moving production bases to Asia). Russia regards that the West has become morally decadent.

3. ウクライナ問題:

  • ウクライナ戦争の本質
    • 1990年冷戦終結時、ブッシュ父大統領・ベーカー国務長官とスコウクロフト安全保障補佐官が、ゴルバチョフ大統領とシュワルナゼ外務大臣に対し、ドイツの統一を認めてソ連軍を東ドイツから撤退させるならば、NATOの東方拡大は行いないと十数回約束した。その後、クリントン政権に東欧を、さらにブッシュ息子政権になって、あっさりこの約束を破棄し、歴史的に300年間ロシアの勢力圏であったウクライナとグルジアのNATO加盟を進めたことが遠因となっている。
    • ウクライナ戦争は、2022/2/24のロシアの侵攻から始まったと報道されているが、実際には米国のロシア対策がもたらしたものである。NATOを拡大し、Victoria Nuland (現国務省次官) がキエフに乗り込んで、クーデターを起こし、民主的に選出されたヤヌコビッチ大統領を追放した。
    • その直後から、ウクライナ軍を米軍の下部組織として再編し、米国製の武器を大量に与えて、米軍式の訓練を実施してウクライナ軍にロシアを攻撃する能力をもたせようとした。それが6-7年継続した。
    • 2014/9/5 プーチンは、このままではウクライナがロシアにとって危険な国になるとの認識で、ロシア系住民の多いクリミア半島とドンバス地域に自治権を与えるということをドイツ・フランスも参加してミンスク議定書を締結 (2015 ミンスク協定2を締結)
    • 実際には、この間、15,000人のロシア系住民がウクライナ軍に殺害された。
      • メルケル独首相とオーランド仏大統領は、あのミンスク協定は嘘だった。時間稼ぎが目的で、最初からプーチンを騙すためにやっていたことを暴露した。
      • 今回のウクライナ戦争は、NATOを1インチも東方拡大しないと約束してロシアを追い詰めたことが原因に見える。
    • 2022になってメルケル元首相は、米国がウクライナをNATOに加入させると言った時に、"That's virtual a declaration of war."なので、やめるべきとの進言をした、と語った。またミンスク協定では、米国の要請を受けて、独仏は、意図的にロシアを騙したと告白し、この戦争の開始に一役買ってしまったことを後悔している様子だった。
  • ウクライナは本当の国家ではない。
    • ウクライナは1918-22にかけて政治的に成立した"国" である。西ウクライナの住民と東ウクライナの住民とは、歴史・文化・言語・宗教も600年前から全く異なる民族と言える。
      • 西ウクライナ人は、ポーランド、リトアニア、ハプスブルグ帝国(オーストリア)に支配されていた時期が長い。
      • 東ウクライナ人は、過去4-500年は、ハプスブルグ帝国〜トルコの支配を経て260年間ロシア帝国に支配されてきた。ルハンシク、ドネツク、ザポリージャ、ヘルソンの地域は1760-1770年頃に露土戦争の結果、ロシアに編入されノヴォロシアと呼ばれた。
      • ところがレーニンが東ウクライナのロシア人をウクライナに編入してしまった。それは1917年のロシア革命後、この東ウクライナ地域が農民が多く、土地所有を認めないボリシェビキ革命に反対した。そこでレーニンは、ノヴォロシアのプロレタリアート <お> 対抗させることでウクライナの支配を確立しようとした。
      • 1922-33にかけて、ウクライナではロシア語の迫害を始めた。公共機関や工場で働く人間は、ウクライナ語のみとし、ロシア語の使用を禁止されたことで解雇された。東ウクライナでも、ロシア語住民は、貧しい境遇に置かれた。1933年以降は、学校でもロシア語の使用を禁止した。
      • その後ヒトラードイツが侵攻し、西ウクライナ(ガリツィア)地域を占領。西ウクライナ人はナチスに協力してロシアとの戦争を始めた。
      • 但し、ガリツィア人(リヴィウ) のロシア嫌いは、ナチスの占領以前から、例えば1914年WWIの際には、ロシア系住民やロシア正教神父や言論人をConcentration campに何万人も押し込んで、その内の数千人を虐殺した。(1935-36年にConcentration campを発掘したら、1914-17にかけて虐殺された2000人以上の死体がでてきた。)
      • スターリンは、このガリツィア地域をウクライナに編入したことで、ウクライナ国内の東西憎悪を増幅した。(プーチンの関与以前にウクライナ戦争の原因は作られていた。)
  • ウクライナは勝てない。:
    • 2023年からはWar of Attrition (消耗戦争)に突入している。そこでは兵隊と武器弾薬で勝利が決まる。
    • 経済力と軍事力の比較: ロシア対ウクライナでは
      • 経済は8:1。昨年の戦争後は16:1。現在は20:1
      • 人口: 3:1。現在は5:1。
      • 戦傷者: 1: 5-7 (Pentagonの機密情報)
      • 発砲数: 5-10:1 (現在90%は、大砲の弾による)
      • 兵員不足: 18-60歳の徴兵年齢を16-60歳にした。これはドイツ軍の末期と同様。
  • Globalist vs. Nationalistの衝突:
    • Globalistの考え: 国民国家は、MNE, NGO, WEF, WHO, WTO, NATOなどの国際機関の下で団結するために主権を譲渡する必要がある。
    • Nationalistの考え: ロシアは多極化の世界を目指し、欧米で断絶し独自の道(アジアへ生産拠点移動) を模索する。欧米は道徳的に退廃した。

>Top 4. Yoshiaki Yano: Former Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Major General

  • The mass media is not telling the truth.
    • I'm checking various information sources: judging from the satellite image analysis as well as information released by both side armies, the outcome of the war is getting obvious; it is certain that Russian would win.
    • The focus of the operation starting in the spring of 2023 was the battle for Robotine in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, which is the battle of the land area connecting mainland Russia and the Crimean Peninsula. The Ukrainian side concentrated its forces on the southern front. Anticipating Ukrainian continuous offensive for three month, the Russian side established 5-6,000 trenches and anti-tank positions over several layers.
    • The Ukrainian attack could fall into a trap so-called "being attracted and then attacked from three directions" A village of Robotine looks like a front trench which may be an inducing route to the trap.
    • Number of casualties since the star of the war: Ukrainian 400K soldiers dead, or 800K including wounded vs. Russian 70-80K. The ratio is almost 10 to 1. It is also reported that some entire platoons surrendering to Russia to save the lives of soldiers. As some 60K soldiers lost limbs or heavily injured, Ukrainian medical care is getting its limits. As such, the Ukrainian military is currently in the process of collapsing; and there might occur a coup d'état, disobedience of order.
  • Support of weapons from the West:
    • Ammunition: by Oct 2023, US Army would run out of stock. The US production capacity is around 19K monthly, while Ukrainian troops consumes 6K daily (only enough for about three days). That of other NATO countries combines is less than US, so all supplies of ammunition will be equivalent to 5-6 days of Ukrainian consumption. Russia, on the other hand, is firing 12,000K annually in 2022 and 20-30K shots daily in 2023. The ratio if almost R10 vs. U1.
    • To increase the production of shell will take several months. And complex weapons like HIMARS will take 2-3 years. They have sent 90-100 German Leopard tans, whose almost half were destroyed. 300 UK's Bradleys (armored fighting vehicles) were sent, whose about half were destroyed. NATO no longer has the emergency production capacity to compensate for such losses.
    • It is mentioned that the decline in US arms production capacity is due to the decline in domestic industrial production. Though US maintains to produced advanced weapons which can be sold abroad at higher values, while daily required tanks, artillery, ammunition, and missiles is declining. The biggest miscalculation was to underestimate the military capacity of Russia and forced them into this war. Now it was revealed that Russian's ammunition stockpile was twice as large, and its ammunition production capacity was three times as large, according to Western assumptions.
  • Present military operations:
    • So far Ukraine's operations are rigid and focused solely on the offensive. On the southern Zaporizhzhia front, 60K Ukrainian army are attacking, while 40K Russian army are defending based on the trenches and positions; offensive force needs to be at least three times larger, or hopefully five times larger. In this situation, it is an unreasonable offensive is carrying out by the Ukrainian army.
    • Currently, Ukrainian 37 brigades are deployed to the front; in reality the mobilization of the brigades is the very limit. The Ukrainian soldiers are made up of veteran over 40 years old, or child soldiers under draft age, and female soldiers; all of whom are poorly trained. Just the other day, there was a collision accident involving a fighter jet. Ukrainian army has six elite brigades, whose total strength is around 25-26K, and there is no reserve force other than these. Ukraine's total military strength is said around 1.1-1.2 million; 70-80% of these have already been exhausted, which indicates that the military approaches the process of collapsing. Eventually, it is forecast that the effective combat would be no longer capable by coming Oct. 2023.
    • On the other hand, the Russian army reserves 300K out of 750K are not directly participating. Furthermore, their strategy is to remain in their positions and respond fiercely with firepower attrition while reducing human casualties. From around Oct. 2023, there is a possibility that the Russian army may launch a major offensive, using 100K troops toward Kharkov, Odessa, or Western Ukraine, in addition additional troops moving south from Belarus, trying to separate Ukraine from the Poland-Romania border, cutting off the cooperation with NATO.
  • Outlook for the future war situation:
    • By the winter, it is likely that Ukraine would be defeated and some form of cease-fire negotiations would begin.
    • Poland plans to create a joint force with Ukraine to protect its western borders, but the real Polish objective is to occupy these territories. (mention by Polish President Doda)
    • At the recent NATO summit, the scenario of ceasefire negotiations may have discussed secretly. This discussion includes responsibility for the economic recovery of the defeated country. In addition, increasing momentum in EU is observed to reconsider the way of thing of the present globalism.
    • The current war situation resembles a WWI-style battle of firepower attrition. And the outcome could be similarly the collapse of the political system, the defection or assassination of the leaders, or a coup d'état or revolution. It is said Zelensky's support ratio is around 12.2%, and Ukrainian corruption is also a serious problem (like the case of Kosobo)
    • There is also the possibility of political collapse of US Biden administration supported by neocon groups. Even at this moment (Sept 23, 2023), majority of US public opinion appears against further arms assistance to Ukraine, which would give a significant impact on the 2024 presidential election.

4. 矢野義昭: 元陸上自衛隊・陸将補

  • メディアは真相を伝えていない。
    • 情報ソース: 衛星画像分析と両軍の発表情報の総合した結果、戦争の帰趨が見えてきた。ロシアが勝利するであろうことは確実。
    • 2023春以降の作戦の中心は、南部ザポリージャ州ロボチネ争奪戦。ロシア本土とクリミア半島を結ぶ陸地部分の攻防。南部正面にウクライナ側は戦力を集中。3ヶ月攻勢をかけたが、ロシア側も5-6000の陣地を構築。何層にも亘って対戦車陣地を構築した。
    • ウクライナ軍の攻撃は、"誘致導入"作戦に陥り3方向からの攻撃を受ける可能性がある。(ロボタインは前哨陣地である)
    • 開戦以来の死傷者数: ウクライナ対ロシア: 40万人、戦傷者を入れると80万人: 7-8万人で、ほぼ10対1。小隊・中隊毎ロシア軍への投降事例が出ている。6万人の手足損失者で医療も限界に来ている。このように、現在、ウクライナ軍は崩壊過程にあり、クーデター、命令不服従などが起こる可能性がある。
  • 武器支援の状況:
    • 弾薬: 23/10にはウ軍では在庫が枯渇。米国の生産能力は19000発/月で、ウ軍は6,000発/日消費(約3日分しかない)。他NATO諸国合わせても米国以下で、ウ軍所要量の5-6日分。一方ロシアは12,000,000発/(2022)を打っており、2-30,000発/日(2023)打っている。ロシア対ウクライナで、ほぼ10対1の比率である。
    • 砲弾増産には数ヶ月かかる。HIMARSのような複雑な兵器では2-3年かかる。Leopard 戦車90-100両送ったが約半数は撃破された。Bradley(装甲兵戦闘車)300両送付したがこれも約半数近く撃破された。これらの損耗部分を補う緊急増産力はNATO側にはもうない。
    • 米国の武器生産力が低下しているのは、国内の工業生産力の低下の影響を受けている。販売できる先端兵器の生産が行っているが、日常的な戦車・火砲・弾薬・ミサイルの生産・備蓄体制は低下している。その状況の中でロシアを見くびって今回の戦争に追い込んでしまったのが最大の誤算である。西側の想定では、ロシアの弾薬の備蓄は2倍、弾薬生産能力は3倍程度あることが後に判明した。
  • 現在の軍事作戦:
    • ウクライナの作戦指導は、硬直的で攻勢一本槍である。ザポリージャ正面でもウクライナ軍6万に対しロシア軍4万(1.5倍)であり、攻勢戦力は最低3倍から通常は5倍必要。その中でウクライナ軍は無理な攻勢をしているように見える。
    • 現在37個旅団を前正面で展開中だが、実質は旅団の動員もぎりぎりになっていて40歳以上の老兵または徴兵年齢以下の少年兵あるいは女性兵でいずれも訓練不足の兵員である。つい先日も戦闘機の接触事故を生じた。精鋭部隊は6旅団あるが、総兵力は25-26,000程度でこれ以外には予備戦力がなくなる。ウクライナ総兵力110-120万の内、70-80%はすでに損耗しており、軍が崩壊過程にあると見られる。結局、23/10頃には戦闘遂行能力がなくなると見られる。
    • 一方ロシア軍は75万の内30万は予備として直接参加しておらず、かつ陣地に籠もって人的損害を減らしながら火力消耗戦で応酬している戦法をとっている。23/10頃からは、ロシア側がハリコフ、オデッサ、西ウクライナまた北部のベラルーシにいる10万の部隊が南進し、ポーランド・ルーマニア国境との分断し、NATOとの連携遮断の図るなど大攻勢をかける可能性がある。
  • 今後の戦況展望:
    • この冬期には、ウクライナ側の敗北が明白となり、何らかの形の停戦交渉が開始される可能性がある。
    • ポーランドは、西側の国境を守るために、ウクライナとの合同部隊創設を計画しているが、本当の目的はこれらの領土の占領である。(ドウダ・ポーランド大統領)
    • 最近のNATO首脳会議でも、停戦交渉のシナリオが話された可能性が高い。敗戦国の経済復興の責任も含めて。特にEUもGlobalismの見直しの機運が高まっている。
    • 今の戦況は、火力消耗戦というWWI型の戦いの状況である。その結末も、政治的な体制崩壊、指導者の亡命・暗殺、あるいはクーデターや革命が起こり得る。 ゼレンスキーの支持率は12.2%と言われている。汚職も問題である。(Kosoboの事例)
    • また米国バイデン政権、ネオコンの政治的破綻があり得る。現時点(23/9)でも、米国世論の過半数がこれ以上のウクライナへの武器支援に反対との傾向が出ており、2024の大統領選挙に影響する。

>Top 5. Vladimir Putin's Carrier:

  • Putin was born on 1952/10/7 in Leningrad; youngest of three children of Vladimir Spiridonovich Putin (1911-1999) and Maria Ivanovna Putina (1911-1998). His grandfather was a personal cook to Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin.
    • 1960: started at School #193 at Baskov Lane, then S. Petersburg High School 281, then Leningrad State University.
    • 1983/7/28 married Lydmila Shkrebneva Putina.
    • 1985-90: served in Dresden, East Germany; worked for KGB's liaison officer.; after the collapse of USSR, he intended to get a doctorate in law at Leningrad University and become a professor there.
    • met Anatoly Sobchak, who soon became Mayor of Leningrad.
    • 1991 became head of the Committee for External Relations of the Mayor's Office.
    • 1994 was appointed as first deputy chairman of the Government of Saint Petersburg.
    • 1995 organized St-Petersburg branch of the 'Our Home-Russia' political party founded by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.
    • 1996: Sobchak lost his bid for re-election in St-Peterburg.
    • 1997: President Boris Yeltsin appointed Putin deputy chief of the Presidential Staff.
    • 1998: Yeltsin appointed Putin director of the Federal Security Service (FSB)
    • 1999: was appointed acting prime minister.
    • 1999/12/31 Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned and Putin became Acting President of the Russian Federation.
    • 2000/3/26 Putin won the first round of the election with 53% of the vote.
    • 2000-2004: won a power-struggle with the Russian oligarchs; gained 83% support after the Moscow theater hostage crisis occurred 2002/10.
    • 2004-2008: was elected to the presidency for a second term, receiving 71% of the vote.
    • 2005: Nation Priority Projects to improve Russia's health care, education, housing, and agriculture.
    • 2008-2012: Firs Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was elected his successor (power-switching operation on 2008/5/8)
    • 2012: Putin won Russian presidential election with 63.6% of the vote.
    • 2014/2: Annexed Crimea and Sevastopol after a referendum.
    • 2018: Putin won the 2018 Russian presidential election with 76% of the vote.
    • 2020/7/3: Putin signed the amendments into the Russian Constitution, allowing for two more six-year terms.
    • 2021/7: published an essay 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians', stating that Belarusians, Ukrainians and Russians should be in one All-Russian nation. (one people)
    • 2022/2/24: announced a 'special military operation in Ukraine, citing denazificaiton
    • 2022/9/30: signed decrees annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kerson into Russian Federation.
  • Way of thinking:
    • is Russian Orthodox; his farther was an atheist, but his mother attended church regularly and secretly baptized him as a baby.
    • can consider everything from three levels; Philosophical, Paradigm, and Policy levels (3P).
    • is very calm, prudent and rational as well as a pragmatist, neither raising his voice nor showing his emotions (contrary to the image of a macho martial artist).
    • respects; 1) Vladimir Solovyev (1853-1900), philosopher studying Plato and Kant); 2) Nicholas Berdyaev (1874- 1948), philosopher and researcher of Fyodor Dostoevsky (1821-1881); 3) Ivan Ilyin (1883-1954), philosopher and researcher of Georg Hegel; 4) Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (1918-2008).
    • Putin is not only a president, but an educator to improve moral and value judgment of Russians; and also respects Charles d'Gaulle (1890-1970) as a politician.
    • even now, is analyzing the theories of the French Revolution and then thinkers and philosophers; seriously debating which parts should be introduced and which parts should not; this trend is very sound.

>Top 6. Six Paradigms of International Politics:

  • Three stages of viewpoint:
    • 1) Philosophical thinking
    • 2) Paradigmatic thinking
    • 3) Policy level thinking
  • Meaning of life, or Mission of life:
    Without keeping these in mind, we won't be able to discuss things with consistency. Talking this category of values in Japanese seems rather difficult to express in proper terms. And no such discussion is done in even Japanese universities.
    • My professors of international politics at University of Tokyo are: 1) one left-wing conservative of Japanese constitution, 2) Pro-American conservatives (2 served as the brains of former prime ministers)
    • while studying international politics, foreign policy and economic policy at two US universities, I noticed a clear difference between those taught at Japanese and US universities.
    • It turned out that Japan's conservative professors of international politics are only arguing to justify postwar dependence on US (which had been the policies adopted by successive prime ministers such as Yoshida, Sato, and Nakasone.)
    • Japan is still having policy discussions without paradigmatic thinking. During 76 years after WWII, Japan has not thought about it by itself.
    • The phenomenon that liberals and conservatives become at odds with each other has occurred since the French Revolution. There are two type of conservatives: one, called reactionary conservative, always opposes the left. Another type of conservatives is called cultural (or classical, or orthodox) conservative.
  • Six paradigms of international politics:
    • Liberals:
      1. Interdependence school
      2. Institutional school
      3. Democratic peace theory
    • Conservatives:
      1. Offensive realism
      2. Defensive realism
      3. Hegemonic stability theory
  • >Top Characteristics of each faction:
    • Liberals believe that world peace can be maintained by emphasizing enlightenment, progressivism, rationalism, human rights, and humanism since mid 18C.
    • Conservatives consider what decisions to make reviewing the past 2,500 years trends, particularly thinking 16C humanism, 17C classicism, and Christian theology (original sin). Human beings are inherently prone to lying, self-righteousness, and self-deception. Regarding the last self-deception, the person who cannot recognize that he is doing something wrong. Most of humans, 70-80%, tend to become insensitive to something inconvenient or disadvantageous to themselves (Cognitive dissonance) If society and nation as a whole are like this, they will not realize their own mistakes. International politics has such a trouble-containing structure.
      • Cognitive dissonance: when two actions or ideas are not psychologically consistent with each other, people do all in their power to change them until they become consistent.
      • Confirmation bias: people display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes.
    • >Top Liberal faction-1 (interdependent):
      • At beginning 20C, trade and mutual investment between Europe and US became active, and mutual dependence increased. In 1910, British Norman Angel (Labor party politician, and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize) described the balance of power and war as outdated in his writing "Great Illusion." describing. He insisted that not only interdependent economics structure among countries (borderless economy) can deter wars. but arms competition is an anachronism. However, WWI actually broke out four years later. It is obvious that humanity could not learn from the past history lessons. Actually, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of the Cold war, the paradigm of interdependence once again revived popularity around the world.
      • During 1989-2008, the Great Financial Depression; this theory of interdependence became popular again and glorified globalism.
      • The post-war US policy toward China promoted policies based on this mutual dependence policy (so-called Engagement policy: if China becomes rich, it will become peace-loving and the risk of war will decrease.) US approved technology transfer, most-favored nation treatment, and joining to WTO.
    • >Top Liberal faction-2 (Institutional school):
      • believes that enhancing the international system based on international law can promote peace.
      • In the economic field, international systems function well. But it does not necessarily go well because it is a zero-sum game and every country eagers to share advantageous position.
      • For the past 70 years, hegemonic powers such as US, Russia, China and Israel have not been punished for pursuing military policies unilaterally, and other countries have been unable to stand up against the hegemonic states. It was typically declared by the Chief legal counsel Abraham Sofaer of US State Department. Although the United Nations charter was adopted in 1945, which stipulates that the unilateral use of military force is considered a violation of the international law. But actually hundreds of times of military actions were carried out around the world in disregard of the UN charter. The UN Security Council is unable to fulfill its peacekeeping function. In particular, US and Russia are keen to increase their client countries and have promoted regime changes through illegal use of forces such as coup d'état in various developing countries. Thus it became clear the extremely limited nature of the international law from the said statement of senior US State Department official.
    • >Top Liberal faction-3 (Democratic peace theory, or peace through democracy):
      • After the Cold War, Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations officially advocated adopting such Democratic peace theory, but actually they did not took actions following it.
      • The theory asserts that if the world became democratic nations, which are peace-loving nations and wars would disappear from the world. The US media does not believe the theory either, but they pay lip service to democracy aimed by the theory.
      • Regarding the original democracy, ancient Greece about 2,500 years ago, Athens was a democratic state, while Sparta was militaristic state. Athens was more belligerent, who more conducted unilateral military intervention. During the Peloponnesian War in 5C BC, may Greek city states sided with Sparta.
      • UK was also a democratic country from 17C to 19C, but in realty UK exerted itself to expand its colonies as an imperialist country.
      • >Top There is a room for debate whether it is desirable for the world all to become democratic countries. International political scientists such as Samuel Huntington, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz believe democracy could be functionable on the conditions of: 1) thorough rule of law, 2) competent bureaucratic administrative structure, 3) independent judicial system.
      • US, especially Clinton, W. Bush, and Obama administrations, have waged wars of intervention around the world. As a result, US cited various reasons such as anti-terrorist, possibility of the presence of mass destructive weapons, or oppression of religious or ethnic minorities, etc., insisting to expand democracy rather than US hegemony, and carried out coup d'etat or regime change into favorable government.
        • If the democratic leaders of other countries showed anti-US stance, US CIA and State Department would collapse the government is various illegal methods, such as 1) in 1953 overthrew the Jacobo Guzman government and restored Pahlavi dynasty by coup d'etat (PBScuccess operation), 2) in 1955 in South Vietnam, established US-backed Ngo Dinh Diem government, 3) in 1964 in Brazil, established pro-US Castelo Branco government by coup d'etat, 4) on 1973/9/11 in Chile Allende government was overthrown and Pinochet military regime was established by coup d'etat, 5) in 2011 in Libya, Qaddafi regime was attacked by US and NATO and was collapsed, 6) in 2013 in Egypt Mohammed Mursi government of Muslim Brotherhood was ousted by coup d'etat, 7) in 2014 in Ukraine, President Yanukovish was ousted by violent anti-government demonstration led by US (Maidan Revolution).
        • Albright, Secretary of State in Clinton administration said ("the price is worth it.") it was the role of US to use unilaterally military force, and insisted on the legitimacy of the policy even though 800K Iraqis died due to US economic and medical sanctions against Iraq.
      • >Top As the security of US is linked to the securities around the world, US will use military force anytime and anywhere to protect human rights around the world.
        • When W. Bush administration invaded Iraq in 2003 on the ground of weapons of mass destruction, later emphasized that US occupied Iraq for the greater objective securing democratic peace in the world.
        • In 2010 Obama administration also used military force for the common goods (which were defined by US government). In 2011 US intervened in Libya and ousted Qaddafi government on the grounds of suspicion of preparation of nuclear weapons development, consequently caused 800K casualties in civil war. Again, in 2014-2017, US intervened in Syrian civil war on the grounds of suspicion of using chemical weapon and etc., which caused world largest 6.6M refugees and 700K-800K casualties.
    • Structure of international politics:
      • features of the past 3000 years:
        The world government has never established. It has been essentially anarchy situation without real governing organizations; neither world government, nor world legislative assembly, nor world court system.
      • US, Russia, China, and also Israel are hegemonic powers. The first three countries are permanent members of US Security Council, having veto power. Although Israel is not a permanent member of the Security Council, but effectively it has exercised veto power through US: In 1948, when Israel occupied 78% of Palestinian land, and in 1967 Israel occupied the remaining 22%. (Arab-Israeli Wars: 1st in 1948, 2nd in 1956, 3rd (6 days) in 1967; 4th in 1973) US exercised its veto power at US Security Council; whose vetoes 65-70 were done by US, and more than half of them were veto in defense of Israel. For the past 555 years, it continues such a grotesque situation that Israel has exercised most the de facto veto power.
      • Although US government officially says it support "two-state solution", US always use its veto power in UN Security Council to reject all proposals to solve the Palestine problem.
    • The main actor is always the nation state.
      • Historically Balance of Power has been the principle. There has been no other way but to balance it. China has had versatile experiences in the theories of Balance of Power since the Spring and Autumn Warring State period (770-453BC), and it still keeps effective diplomatic power today. Balance of Power diplomacy has also been demonstrated among the city-state in Ancient Greece, Turkey, and Italy, and since the Middle Ages, 6 or 7 states in Western Europe have always .
      • Balance of Power cannot be achieved by political ideology alone. The reason for this is that there has been no common standards of value judgment among civilizations, or in terms of political ideology, economic structure, or religious doctrine.
      • Compliance with treaties not actually enforces in international politics when a certain country's security is threatened. It is natural that every country prioritizes it own survival.
      • Japanese conservatives also tend to discuss mixing up with above mentioned the liberal theories.
  • Conservatives:
    • >Top Conservative faction-1 (Aggressive realist):
      During the last 500 years, four or five major powers have engaged in power struggle and power competition among them, and have maintained each dominant position in the international politics.
      • This idea remained effective until mid 18C. This is because only king and nobles participated in the war. However, after the French Revolution, the entire nation was mobilized by universal conscription system. Through the revolutionary movement took place in Europe in 1848, the consciousness of the ordinary people of various countries have changed. Since then, the people have expressed their opinions in foreign affairs issues. At the same time the sentiment of nationalist have become commonplace. The war itself became more intense, and the number of casualty increased. If defeated the country may become bankrupt due to huge reparations. In this respect, it is obvious that in modern ages, the Defensive realist make more sense.
      • In 2022, the world's total military expenditure is USD2,240B, of which US is overwhelmingly No.1, spending USD877B (39.2%), which shares 12% of all US budget. Russia is USD86.3B became 5th to 3rd position from the previous year. US should be more than enough to spend less than half the budget to defend that country, including normal forces, nuclear forces and cyber forces.
        • As of 2022/9 there are more than 170K military troops across 178 countries, with the most in Japan (54K), Germany (36K), and South Korea (25K), having US military bases 120, 119, and 73 respectively. There are around 750 US military bases in at lease 80 countries.
        • US has military alliances with 67 countries, which means US has always risks to be involved in unnecessary military conflicts. Also US has overseas military bases in more than 180 countries
        • After the end of the Cold War, US has adopted Offensive Realism, or Hegemonic Policy, and has intervened in wars in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc, but as a result, US's position has not improved
    • >Top Conservative faction-2 (Defensive realist):
      • This idea does not intentionally provoke other countries or take aggressive action, rather focusing on maintenance the survival and current safety condition of its own country, which has been asserted typically by George Kennan who proposed Containment Policy against USSR, Samuel Huntington, the writer of Clash of Civilization, Lloyd Hartman Elliott, established Elliott School of International Affairs are Defensive conservationism, or Classical conservatism.
      • Water Lippmann (proposed the role of journalism in democracy, and the term 'stereo type.'), and Kennith Walts (proposed that the world would be more stable by the increase, ten or so, of nuclear-weapon states) agreed with G. Kennan during WWII, insisting US, UK, and Japan should agree not to be involved in land wars in Eurasia.
      • Otto von Bismarck, Charles-Maurice Talleyrand-Peigord, and Charles de Gaulle practiced Defensive realism and were successful. Bismarck created the best army in the world during the last years of the German Empire, but he insisted not to begin a winnable war. Winning a war is not a good thing, nor it could not contributed the nation's interest. If the nation won, it would be in a quagmire. Since he formed German Empire, (called Iron Chancellor) of German Confederation, he transformed his stance into clear defensive, and promoted balance of power diplomacy to maintain German position in a peaceful Europe.
      • After the Russo-Japanese war in 1905, Japan should have turned into Defensive realist and should not have tried to control China and Korea, considering the political, economic, and military costs.
    • >Top Conservative faction-3 (Hegemonic Stability theorist):
      • In this view, both US and China pursue the hegemonic stability policy; each viewing itself as the center of the world. They are promoting a theory that clarified hierarchy rather than equilibrium, and in that sense, both US and Chins are said to be ego-centric nations.
        • Joseph Neigh advocated the maintenance of hegemony (by influencing US culture, democracy, human rights, etc.) by combining hard power and soft power. He commented that China is also eager about US's soft power, so it would not go against US.
          Codoleezza Rice said she wanted Iraq to become like post-war Japan, as Japan is eager to be involved and controlled by US policy.
        • John Ikenberry and Richard Haass; criticizes that US focusing on wars against terrorism as the main objective of US diplomacy, which will weaken the function with allies and international organizations, and which will not serve US national interests.
          Richard Haass also emphasized that the importance of negotiation at the table rather than on the battlefield regarding Ukraine war.
        • T.V. Wolt, comments that after winning the Cold War, US aims to remake other countries as designed by US.
        • George Kenna, comments that the US policy has been to remake each country as per the US image.
        • Barry r. Posen: author of "Restraint.', comments that the Japanese do not assert themselves at all in their alliance with US. They even don't know how the US bases in Japan are used. Japanese people have nothing to say on this matter. The purpose of US military presence in Japan is actually to prevent Japan from its acquiring nuclear weapons. Japan should eventually become independent from its current dependence on US. Also as the nuclear proliferation in East Asia is inevitable, US should recognize Japan 's nuclear possession.
  • Conflict structure between US vs Russia+China:
    • As US has imposed server economic sanctions on Russia and has encouraged Russia and China to grow closer.
      • Even now, in terms of GDP (PPP), Russia plus China exceeds US by more than 50%. And in 2028 GDP (nominal) of Russia plus China will surpass that of US. Considering the military spending is about 3% of GDP, Russia plus China will surpass US in terms of military spending. If that happens, US will not be able to wage war against China. Or as an alternatively US needs to make China's economic growth below 2% until 2028.

6. 国際政治学の6つのパラダイム

  • 物の考え方(Viewpoint)の3段階:
    • 1) Phylosophical thinking (哲学レベル)
    • 2) Paradigmatic thinking (学派レベル)
    • 3) Policy level thinking (政策レベル)
  • Meaning of life, or Mission of life:
    • 東大での国際政治学の授業: 1) 護憲左派1人、2) 親米保守 (2人は総理大臣ブレーンを務めた)
    • 米国2大学での国際政治学、外交政策、経済政策を学ぶ過程で、日米大学で教えている国際政治学の質の違いに気づいた。
    • 日本の保守派の国際政治学者は、戦後の対米依存主義(吉田・佐藤・中曽根等の歴代総理の政策) を正当化するための議論に過ぎないことが判明。
    • 日本は未だにパラダイムレベルでの議論のない政策議論しかしていない。76年間、自身で考えてない。
    • 仏革命後、リベラルと保守派は、左右の対立になった。左翼に反論する反動保守。もう一つの保守は、Cultral (classical, orthodox) conservativeである。
  • 国際政治学の6つのパラダイム:
    • リベラル派:
      1. 相互依存派 (Interdependence school)
      2. 制度学派 (Institutional school)
      3. 民主的平和の理論 (Democratic peace theory)
    • 保守派:
      1. 攻撃的なパラダイム(Offensive realism)
      2. 防御的なパラダイム(Defensive realism)
      3. 覇権安定論 (Hegemonic stability theory)
  • 各派閥の特徴:
    • リベラル派は、18C中頃からの啓蒙主義、進歩主義、理性主義、人権主義、ヒューマニズムを重視していけば世界平和が維持されるという考え。
    • 保守派は、過去2500年の推移を見て、どう判断すべきかを考える。16C人文主義、17Cの古典主義、キリスト教神学 (Original sin)の人間感に基づいて考える。偽言、独善、自己欺瞞から逃れない。自己欺瞞 (Self deception) 自分が悪いことをしている認識がない。70-80%に人間は (Congnitive dissonance)、都合の悪いことの不感症である。社会・国家全体がそうであれば自分自身の誤りに気づけないのである。国際政治は困った構造を内包している。
    • リベラル派-1 (相互依存派):
      • 20C初頭に欧米間で貿易・相互投資に盛んになり、相互依存が高まった。英国のNorman Angel (労働党政治家、Nobel平和賞受賞) 1910に"Great Illusion"執筆し、Balance of Powerも戦争も時代遅れである。相互依存の経済構造 (Borderless economy)が戦争を抑止する。軍事競争もanachronismである。但し、その4年後にWWIが勃発。但し、人類は」過去の歴史教訓から学ばない。1989のBerlin壁崩壊後、冷戦が終結したので、再度、相互依存のParadigmが世界中で人気となった。
      • 1989-2008の世界金融大恐慌、またこの相互依存派の理論が流行し、Globalismを礼賛。
      • 戦後の米国の対中政策もこの相互依存派に基づいた政策を展開 (対中Engagement関与政策 -中国が豊かになればPeace-lovingとなり、戦争リスクが減る。技術供与、最恵国待遇、WTO加盟)。
    • リベラル派-2 (制度学派):
      • 国際法に基づく国際制度を充実させれば平和が促進される。
      • 経済では国際制度が機能する。軍事外交面では、本音ではZero-sum的なので必ずしもうまく行かない。各国とも、自国が有利に立ちたいと思っている。
      • 過去70年間、US, Russia, China, Islaelなどの覇権国は、一方的に軍事政策を推進しても処罰されないし、他の国は、覇権主義的な国に対しては対抗できない。その認識の典型として、1985-90国務省首席法律顧問Abraham Sofaerは、国際法は役に立たないと断言した。1945に国連憲章が採択され一方的な軍事力行使は国際法違反とされたが、実際には世界で何百回も国際無視の軍事行動が行われた。UN安保理事会は平和維持の機能を果たせていない。特に、米ロは、自分の属国を増やすことに熱心で、途上国における非合法的な実力行使(Coup d'état)によってRegime change政策を推進してきており、国際法を無視した行動を採ってきた。このように、国際法は極めて限界があることが、米国国務省高官の発言によっても明らかである。
    • リベラル派-3 (民主的平和の理論; 民主主義による平和の理論):
      • 冷戦後のClinton, Bush, Obama政権は、Democratic Peace Theory (Paradigm)を公式に採用を唱えたが、それを守った訳ではない。
      • 民主主義による平和は、世界中が民主国家 (Peace loving国家)になれば、世界から戦争はなくなるという理論。米国のマスコミも信じていないが、口先ではDemocracyを礼賛している。
      • 2500年前の古代ギリシアは、Athensが民主主義で、Spartaが軍国主義国家。Athensの方がよほど一方的軍事介入して好戦的だった。Spartaの方が弱いものいじめをする頻度がすくなかった。BC5Cのペロポネス戦争えは、ギリシアの多くの都市国家はSpartaの味方をした。
      • 英国も17-19Cは民主主義国家だったが、実際には帝国主義国家として植民地拡大に奔走した。
      • 世界中が、民主主義国家になるのが本当に望ましいことか議論の余地がある。国際政治学者Samuel Huntington, Geoge Kennan, Henry Kinssinger, Morgenthaw, Kenneth Waltzなどは、民主主義を実行できる要素は、法治主義(Rule of Law)が徹底している、competentが官僚制度による行政機構、独立した司法制度があることである。
      • 米国は、特にClinton, Bush, Obama各政権は、世界中に内政干渉と軍事干渉で、米国の言うこときかせるための口実として、米国の覇権ではなく、民主主義を広めるためとし、人権擁護、反テロリスト、反大量破壊兵器、少数宗教・民族圧迫などを理由として内政干渉した。20数カ国に内政干渉、Cout d'etatを実行した。
        • 他の国の民主主義リーダーが、反米的な場合は、CIA,や国務省は、1953年coup d'etatによるモサデク大統領追放し、パーレビ王朝を復活、1954 年Jacobo Guzman政権の転覆 (PBSuccess作戦)、1955年南ベトナムで、米国支援のゴジンジェム政権成立、1964年ブラジルでは coup d'etatで親米派のCastelo Branco政権設立、1973/9/11にcoup d'etatで、チリのアジェンデ政権崩壊させ、ピノチェト軍事政権を樹立、2011年には、リビアのカダフィ政権が米国・NATOの攻撃を受け政権崩壊、2013年エジプトのムスリム同胞団のMohammed Mursi政権を軍事coup d'etatで追放。2014には、ウクライナのYanukovish大統領を米国指導の反政府デモで追放 (Maidan革命)。
        • クリントン政権オルブライト国務長官、一方的に軍事力行使しなければならないのは米国の役割とし、Iraqに対する経済・医療品の制裁によってイラク人が80万人死亡しても政策の正当性を主張 ("the price is worth it")。
      • 米国の安全保障は、世界中の安全保障と連携している。米国は、世界中の人権擁護のために、いつでもどこでも軍事力を行使するとした。
        • Bush政権は、2003年に大量破壊兵器を理由に侵攻した時も、我々は世界のdemocratic peaceという大きな目標のためにイラクを占領したと表明。
        • 2010 Obama政権も Common goods(米国政府が定義した)のために軍事力を行使したと主張。2011には、米国はリビアに干渉し、核兵器開発準備をしたという理由で、カダフィを放逐し、内戦によって80万人の犠牲者を出した。また2014-17に亘って米国はシリアの内戦に、化学兵器使用の疑いなどを理由に干渉し、最大の660万の難民と70-80万人の犠牲者を出した。
    • 国際政治の構造
      • 過去3000年間の特徴:
      • 米国、ロシア、中国、Israelは覇権国。かつ前3カ国は国連常任理事国で拒否権を持つ。Israelは常任理事国ではないが、米国を通じて実質拒否権行使してきた。1948年パレスチナの土地78%を占拠し、1967年には残り22%も占拠しても米国は全て拒否権を行使した。(第1〜4次中東戦争) 米国は国連安保理事会での65-70%拒否権行使。内、半分以上はIsrael擁護のための拒否権行使。過去55年間は、最も拒否権を行使してきたのは実質的にIsraelというグロテスクな状況が続いている。
      • 米国政府は公式には、Two state solutionを支持するといいながら、国連安保理事会で拒否権を使ってパレスチナ問題の解決提案を潰してきた歴史がある。
    • 常に、行動主体は常にNation state優先主義。
      • 歴史的にはBalance of Powerが原則。Balanceする以外方法がなかったのである。中国では、春秋戦国時代以来、Balance of Powerの経験が豊富なことが今日でも外交上手に通じている。Balance of Power外交は、古代ギリシア, Turkey, Italy都市国家間でも経験してきたし、中世以降は、西欧では常に6-7つの国家がBalance of Powerの上に成立してきた。
      • 政治イデオロギーだけではBalance of Powerは成り立たない。その理由は、共通の価値判断基盤が各文明間、政治イデオロギー、経済の仕組み、宗教の教義の面も存在しなかったことによる。
      • 条約の遵守は、国際政治では、自国の安全が脅かされるような事態になれば、実際には実行されない。どの国も当然ながら自国のsurvivalが優先する。
      • 日本の保守派も前述のリベラル派の議論をごちゃまぜで使っている.
  • 保守派:
    • 保守派-1 (攻撃的なrealist):
      過去500年間は、4-5つの大国が国際政治で優位な立場を確保しつつ、Power stuggle, Power competition を実施してきた。
      • この考えは、18C中頃まで有効だった。王様と貴族のみ参戦していたからである。しかし仏革命の後は、国民皆兵によって全国民が動員されるようになった。1848年の欧州での革命運動を通じて、諸国民の意識が変わったのである。それ以降、国民が外交にも発言権を有するようになった。またそれ以降Nationalism に訴える動きが一般化した。戦争自体が熾烈化し、戦死者も増大し、敗戦すると巨大な賠償金によって国家も破綻ようになった。この点で、現代は、明らかにDefensiveなrealistの方が理がある。
      • 2022年は、世界の軍事費はUSD2,240B。内、米国は877B (39.2%) 圧倒的に世界1位。ロシアは86.3B で前年の5位から3位。米国は、通常戦力、核戦力、サイバー戦略で、半分以下で十二分であるはずである。
        • 2022/9現在、米軍は海外178カ国に170K人以上軍隊を派遣し、内日本54K、独36K、韓国25Kで、それぞれ120、119、73ヶ所の軍事基地を有している。米国の海外軍事基地は、少なくとも80カ国以上に750基地を有している。
        • 米国は、67カ国との軍事同盟を締結し、これは自分の国にとって不必要な軍事紛争に巻き込まれるリスクが常にある。
        • 米国は、冷戦終了後 Offensive realism、あるいはHegemonic policyを採って以降、米国は、イラク、イラン、アフガニスタンなどで戦争介入したが、その結果として米国の立場は良くなっていない。
    • 保守派-2 (防御的なrealist):
      • ソ連封じ込め戦略。George Kennan (ソ連封じ込めの提唱者)は 典型的なClassical conservatistである。またSamuel Huntinton (文明の衝突を著書), Lloyd H. Elliott (国際関係論のエリオット・スクール)もDefensive conservativatistである。
      • Water Lippmann (民主主義におけるジャーナリズムの役割、Stereo typeの用語提唱), Kenneith Waltz (核保有国が十数カ国になった方が世界は安定すると提唱)も、WWII中にG. Kennanと意見が合い、US/UK/Japanは、それぞれもEurasiaの陸上戦争に巻き込まれるべきではないとした。
      • ビスマルク、タレーラン、ド・ゴールはDefensive realistを実践し、成功した。ビスマルクは過去300年の独帝国は世界一の陸軍を創設したが、勝てる戦争をやってはいけない。戦争に勝ってもろくなことはないし国家の利益にならない。勝っても泥沼化してしまう。独を統一し、ドイツ帝国宰相になってからは防御的なdefensistへの鮮やかな転身をしてbalance of power外交によって独の安全を追求した。
      • 日本も1905年の日露戦争後は、政治・経済・軍事的コストが考慮すると、Defensive realistに変身し、中国や朝鮮を支配しようとすべきでなかった。
    • 保守派-3 (Hegemonic stability theorist):
      この考えでは、米国も中国もHegemonic stability policyを追求しており、それぞれ自国を世界の中心国とみなしている。EquibiliumではなくHiechalcyを明確にする理論を進めており、その意味では、米国も中国もEgo-centricな国である。
      • Joseph Neigh, Hard poweerとSoft powerを組み合わせた覇権の維持 (米国の文化、民主主義、人権外交など)を提唱した。中国も米国のSoft powerが大好きなので、米国に背くようなことはないと論評した。Condoleezza Riceは、Iraqを 戦後の日本のようにすればよい、日本は米国に属することを自ら求めているとした。
      • John IkenberryもRichrd Haass; 米国外交の主要目的を、War on terrorismに奔走することは、同盟関係や国際機関の機能を弱体化し、米国の国益に奉仕することにならない点を批判した。
      • Richard Haassは、ウクライナ戦争についても、戦場ではなくテーブルでの交渉の重要性を強調した。
      • T.V. Woltは、冷戦に勝利した後、他の国を米国の設計通りremakeしようとしているとした。
      • George Kennan: 米国の政策は、各国を米国のimageに合わせてremakeする政策だった。
      • Barry R. Posen: "Restraint"の著者。日本人は、米国との同盟関係では一切自己主張しない。在日の基地の使用状況すら知らない。日本人はこの件で発言がない状況。米軍の駐在は、実際には日本の核保有を阻止するためにあるのに。日本は現在のような対米依存から独立すべきであるし、東アジアにおける核の拡散は避けられない。日本の核保有を米国は認めるべきである。
  • 米国対ロシア・中国の対立構造:
    • 米国は、ロシアを徹底的に経済制裁をして、ロシアと中国の接近を促してしまった。
      • 現在でも、GDP (PPP)では、Russia+中国が米国を50%以上回っている。2028年にはGDP (nominal)でも米国を上回ると言われている。GDPの3%程度を軍事費とすると、軍事費レベルでも米国を上回ることになる。そうなると米国は中国に戦争を仕掛けられない。または、2028年までの中国の経済成長率を2%以下程度に下げさせるかのいずれかである。

>Top 7. Plato's Philosophy and Independence of a State:

  • In order to conduct debated in international politics, it is necessary to have discussions that involved clear value judgments based on a consistent history of philosophy, political science, and religious studies.
    • It has be toyed with the fact that Western value judgments have changed over the pas 2,500 years, and in particular in the past 250 years. This trend still continued even today.
  • Consider the history of thought over the past 2,500 years since Socrat4es (469-399BC), Plato (427-347BC), and Aristotle (384-322BC). It is needed to think at three levels: i.e.; 1) philosophical level, 2) paradigm lever, and 3) policy level thinkings.
    • In Japan the philosophical level thinking seems weak. This is probably because that since the Meiji Restoration (1867), almost abandoned the Buddhist thinking. The study of philosophy has been imported from Western countries, and only been superficially imitated what they are talking, which could not take real basement or root of the study in Japan. Also the translated terms of philosophy were too difficult to understand.
    • Philosophy and religion are particularly important to human beings, in order to recognize the 'meaning of life' and 'mission of life'; which are related to considering for what one live, or for what role or mission one live.
    • For the past 77 years after WWII in Japan, two major factions have been debating: liberal faction vs. conservative faction.
      • Liberals in Japan have simply advocated the values of pacifism and human rights without criticism, and their philosophical and religious value judgments were not clear.
      • While, conservatives in Japan have simply prioritized following US and following capitalism, which became to prioritize shareholders' profit, rather than long-term national interests, and which led to the impoverishment of the majority Japanese people causing to decline birthrate.
  • In the past 200 years, European civilization must have deteriorated. The origin of it was the Greek civilization in 4-5C BC, where philosophical and scientific thinking originated, and later Christian civilization arose which emphasized to follow the transcendental value, divinity, or nobility.
    • However, from the latter half of 18C, the premise that human-centric Enlightenment ideas were considered to be correct and became mainstream. Thus human attitude changed to one that emphasized human desires, human value judgments, and human rights.
    • Originally, humans were supposed to need self-restraint. Diderot, d'Alembert, and Rousseau were typical thinkers of this ages who emphasized the priority of practical gain in life.
    • In 19C, the idea of utilitarianism permeated to the national level. Western countries shifted to colonialism, imperialism, non-white racism and nationalism, emphasizing "the might is justice," whose ideology has caused to lead to WWI and WWII. These historical changes are based on the understanding of human nature as "Animus Dominandi."
    • Conservatism requires to clarify what do you want to conserve? The current mainstream in the West will answer that it is nationalism, i.e., the idea of conserving economic and military interests of the nation. And it the the left faction who criticizes this idea.
      • Another position of conservatism is to conserve the classic values, i.e., the attitude to study ancient civilization such as the Greek and Christian, Asian Buddhism and Confucian civilizations over the past 2,500 years. It can be said that about 70% of the awareness of such civilizations are still valid even in 21C, though the rest 30% seems superstitious.
      • In modern politics, advances in science and technology are the major reasons why people have become so conceited ;and arrogant. Though these advancements increased more convenience and productivity, at the same time people became to praise technological innovation rather than classical culture, and to regard changes or innovation as being much better than maintaining the status quo. As a result to technological innovations in military, weapon with hight lethality have been developed and even the risk of nuclear war has become a reality. On the other hand, it cannot be said the ability to make moral judgment to prevent these risks has progressed accordingly.
  • Socrates was Plato's teacher. Socrates had a good sense of humor and was physically strong. He was eccentric and superior at arguments, but at the same time he authored no texts. Instead Plato wrote about his ideas and words in more than 20 books in an unique form of dialogues where Socrates appears. The earlier dialogues reflect Socrates's ideas more clearly.
    • Plato (and Socrates who appears in the book) demonstrated a way of life that could be called moral and masculine, and talked about the essence of philosophy in simple terms, including the meaning of life and the mission of life.
    • In comparison, the postmodern philosophers in 18C hardly talked about the meaning and mission of life. They took a distance themselves from real life, viewing modern civilization from onlookers or by-standers' perspective. In other words, they lacked soundness as philosophers.
    • There are similarities between the philosophies of Plato and Immanuel Kant. Kant's philosophy argues that humans see the shadows reflected in the cave as seen by prisoners inside the cave, which is the reality. It is phenomenon (=the reality in front of us), which is reflected from the numenon (=the fundamental universal reality), which lies truth, goodness and beauty. Plato recognized the world of ideas and forms which have eternity and fundamental sublimity other than the reality in front of our eyes.
    • According to Plato, humans are driven by three desires: 1) Intellectual demands (philosopher type), 2) Demands that value honor, victory, and pride (military type), 3) Desires for money, food , sex, pleasure, and vanity (merchant or epicurean type).
      • Each of these corresponds to the following political systems, i.e., 1) Aristocracy, 2) Militarism , 3) Plutocracy, Oligarchy, 4) Democracy (people's desires are equal, which will be that numbers are strength, 4) Dictatorship, Despotism. The political systems of the above 2)-5) will eventually become corrupt. Particularly regarding 4(, in democratic governance, politicians tend to become populists appealing to popularity of people, which caused people having real leadership abilities do not want to become politicians.
    • Plato's (and Socrates') theory of the state:
      • emphasizes maintaining high standard of value and creating virtuous people and nations. In this case, it has nothing to do with a nation's economic size, population size, military power, or national greatness. Such states must protect their independence. This idea leads to that it would be better for everyone to fight and die than to be enslaved to another country.
      • This theory sounds contrary to the direction Japan has adopted the pas 77 years (prioritizing economics over self-reliance, autonomy, and independence.).

7. プラトン哲学と国家の独立:

  • 国際政治上の論争を行うには、一貫性のある哲学史や政治学や宗教学を踏まえた明瞭な価値判断に関わる議論が必要である。
    • 過去2500年、特に過去250年間で、欧米の価値判断が変わってたことにかな弄ばれてきた。この傾向は現在も続いている。
  • 過去2500年間のソクラテス(469-399 BC)、プラトン(427-347BC)、アリストテレス (384-322BC) 以来の思想史を考える。 それには3つのレベルでの思考が必要である。即ち、哲学レベル、パラダイムレベル、ポリシィレベルの3Pのレベルである。
    • 3つのレベルの思考: 哲学レベル、パラダイムレベル、ポリシィレベルの3Pのレベル。
    • 日本は、哲学・宗教レベルのものの考え方が弱い。明治になって廃仏毀釈を行い仏教的思考を捨てた。哲学もその都度、外国から輸入してきたが、表面的にものまねに終始し、日本に根付いたものではなかった。日本語の訳語もほとんど理解されなかった。
    • 人間にとって哲学・宗教は重要。 即ち生きている意味を、Mean of Lifeライフスタイルを通じて、Mission of Life、生きる意義、使命感、任務感の価値判断をしっかり認識することが重要。
    • 過去77年間、日本ではリベラル派と保守派の論争が続いてきた。
      • 日本のリベラル派の主張は、平和主義、人権主義の価値観を無批判に唱えるのみで、哲学・宗教的価値判断が明確でなかった。
      • また保守派の主張も、長期的国益よりも、対米追従、株主優先主義の資本主義も追従を優先させ、日本民族の貧困化を引き起こし、少子化に繋がった。
  • 過去200年間の欧州文明も劣化してきたと言わざるを得ない。欧州文明の源流は紀元前4-5Cのギシリアが哲学的・科学的思考の起源であり、その後キリスト教文明が起こり、即ち、Transcendental value、Divinity、またはNobility (崇高なもの) に従うことが強調された。
    • しかし、18C後半から、Human centricな啓蒙主義思想が正しいとみなす前提が主流となり、人間の欲望、人間の価値判断、人間の権利を前面に押し出す姿勢に変わってしまった。
    • 本来、人間はSelf-restraintが必要なはずで、ディドロ、ダランベール、ルソーらがこの時代の思想家の典型で、人生における実利優先を強調した。
    • さらに、実利主義の思想は、19Cには、国家レベルにまで浸透し、植民地主義、帝国主義、非白人に他する人種主義と国家主義へと拡大し、力は正義なり (Might is justice)の思想が貫徹し、ついにはWWI、WWIIへつながる。これらの変化は人間の本質を”Animus Dominandi" と捉えたことによる。
    • 保守主義には、何を保守するのか (What do you want to conserve? )を明確にしなければならない。現在の欧米の主流は、 Nationalism、即ち、国家の経済・軍事的利益をconserveするという考えが主流であり、これを批判するのが左派ということになる。
      • また別の保守主義として、Classical valueをconserveする立場がある。人類の過去2500年間にキリスト文明、アジア仏教と儒教文明圏を4つの人類文明の源流として学ぶという姿勢で、当時の問題意識は、21Cになっても70%は通用する見解であった言える。(30%は迷信的の部分も存在しているが。)
      • 現代政治において、人間が思い上がり傲慢になった原因としては、科学技術が進歩したことがある。それによって人々の利便性、生産性が向上したが、一方で、Classical cultureよりも、技術革新の変化を称賛するようになり、現状維持より変化革新を重んじるようになった。軍事技術においても技術革新の結果、殺傷能力の高い兵器が開発され、さらには核戦争のリスクも現実化している。その反面、それらのリスクを防ぐ道徳的判断力は進歩してきているとは言えない。
  • ソクラテスはプラトンの師である。ソクラテスはユーモアのセンスがあり、体力もあった。変人で議論に強いが、一方でものを書きたがらなかった。弟子のプラトンは、ソクラテスの対話集という形式で書き、20数冊も書いた。初期のものはソクラテスの考えをより鮮明に反映している。
    • ソクラテスとプラトンは、いわば道徳的で男性的とも言える生き方を示した。プラトンは、そこに登場するプラトンとの対話を通じて、人にとってのMean of Life とMission of LIfeを、平易な言葉で哲学の本質を語っている。
    • それに比べて、18Cに登場したポストモダンの哲学は、生きることの意味・任務のことはほとんど述べない。人生に対し、距離を取って、冷笑するような態度で、無気力になってOn looker、By standerの立場で現代文明を捉えている。いわば哲学としての健全性に欠けると言える。
    • プラトンとイマヌエル・カントの哲学には共通点がある。カント哲学では、人間には洞窟内の囚人の見る洞窟に写った影を見てそれが現実であると論じている。Phenomenon (目の前の現実) とそれを生じさせているのが、Numenon (根源的な普遍的な現実)という訳である。そこに真善美があるとする。プラトンは、目の前の現実以外に、永遠性をもつ根源的な崇高性をもつidea, formの世界を認めた。
    • プラトン曰く、人間は三つの欲求によって動かされている。1) Intellecturalな要求 (哲人タイプ)、2) 名誉・勝利・プライドを重んじる要求 (軍人タイプ)、 3) 金・食・性・快楽・虚栄心の欲望 (商人・快楽タイプ)である
      • これが政治体制となると、1)が哲人政治、2) 軍人政治、3) Oligarchy政治、4)民主政治 (全ての人の欲求は平等)は数は力なりの論理となる。5) 独裁・専制政治; 2)-5)の政治体制は結局は、堕落することになる。特に4)について言えば、民主政治では、政治家は民衆の好むこと Populistになるで政治家となる傾向があり、本当の指導能力を持つ人は政治家になりたがらない。
    • プラトン(ソクラテスも)の国家論:
      • 質の高い価値規範を維持すること、徳(vertue)のある人間・国家を造ることを重視。この場合、国家の経済規模、人口規模、軍事力と国家の偉大さと関係ない。そのような国家は自国の独立を守らなければならない。他の国に隷属する位なら全員戦った死ぬ方がましという考えである。
      • 過去77年の日本の行き方 (自立・自主・独立より経済至上主義)とは、全く逆に聞こえる。

>Top 8.


  • The end of WWII, the Cold War between East and West, the dissolution of USSR, the rise of China, global warming, the spread of the corona-virus, and now the war in Ukraine.... we are facing these world historical events as living witness.
  • Mr. Kan Itoh's "Serious Chatting" series have deep content, which analyzed various world issues and may be a modern-day "Tsurezuregusa - Essays in Idleness."
  • WWII終結、東西冷戦、ソ連解体、中国の台頭、地球温暖化、コロナウイルス蔓延、そしてウクライナ戦争...我々は現在も世界史上の出来事に生き証人として直面している。
  • 伊藤貫氏の"真剣な雑談"シリーズは内容が深い。世界の世相分析という意味では、現代の"つれづれ草"かも知れない。

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