Nation, Corporation, and Currency

Inappropriate Future of Globalism 

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2020
#2114a

Mitsuru Iwamura (岩村　充)

21703u

Nation, Corporation, and Currency

国家、会社、および通貨

0. Preface:
1. Those are all prepared in 19C:
2. Globalism causing the divided world:
3. Nations which falls into the sea of competition:
4. Enterprises permeating people's hearts:
5. xxxx:

0. 序文:
1. それらは19Cに出揃った:
2. グローバリズムと分岐した世界:
3. 競争の海に落ちる国家:
4. 人々の心の中に入り込む企業:
5. xxxx:

• The author's stance seems to understand the essence of modern society through detailed analysis of function of the three key areas (nation, corporation and currency), backed by knowledge and awareness during long experience.

Résumé

Remarks

>Top 0. Preface:

• To study the issues of nation, corporation, and currency equally can clarify the negative impacts of globalization.
•  This book covers  continued themes, after the publication of "Evolution of Currency" in 2010, and "The Day when the Central Bank finishes" in 2016.
•  
•  

0. 序文:

•  国家、企業、通貨を巡る問題を等距離に扱うことで、グローバリズムの負の側面 (格差拡大やポピュリズム)が明らかにできる。
•  本書は、2010発行の"貨幣進化論"と2016の"中央銀行の終わる日"に続くテーマを取り扱っている。

>Top 1. Those are all prepared by 19C:

• Basic Three-piece set prepared in 19C:
  • Nation state, Corporation, and the Central Bank.
  • established by the first 19C in western Europe.
  • Japan is the earliest establishment of this three-piece set. (only 30-40 years after the western Europe
• Prologue to the modern age:
  • Age of discovery:
  • 1492: Christopher Columbus; reached the Caribbean Sea.
  • 1497: Vasco da Gama: reached India via Cape of Good Hope
  • made Westerb Europe and Asia into a single market (passing through the Islamic world)
• >Top Historical GDP: (>Fig.):
  • a
• Huge economic zone of Ming dynasty and Mughal empire;
• >Top 1405-33: Zhèng Hé's (1371-1434) Grand Fleet: 7 times voyages.
  • if Western European ships were encountered, there would be no oriental trade.
    • Zhèng Hé's Bǎo Chúan; displacement 10 ,000 tons (no keel)
    • Columbus's La Pinta vessel; displacement 80 tons
    • Japan's GDP in 1500 almost equals UK+Spain+Portugal.
• per capita GDP is almost same between Wester Europe and Asia.
  • In Italian middle ages, there were no tyrannical monarchs.
    • , which was a cause of existence of City-State.
  • British and French kingships were also limited,
    • , which enabled growth of GDP per capita.
  • Netherlands; woolen industry in the autonomous city was developed since 1000.
• Birth of civil property and ownership.
  • as the birth of resistance to arbitrary tax collection rights.
  • self-defense against the royal family of landowners.|
    →16C: primary enclosure movement
    • Netherlands is the factory and UK is the hinterland.
    • In 17C, UK became prosperous by industry and trading.|
      Navigation Act →Anglo-Dutch war.
    • Netherlands was no longer a military power for Japan.
• >Top Formation of Nation-State:
  • 16C was the century of prosperity in Western Europe, while 17C was a mini Ice Age.
  • In Europe: 30-year War, Religious War, and plague pandemic caused declining population.
  • Decline of Germany, while rise of France
  • Migration to US; settles as Puritan self-employed farmers
  • Second Anglo-Dutch War (1665-67); renamed to NY.
  • 18C Japan: pollution stagnated, but literacy rate improved.
  • Long 18C Europe: →Pax Britannica
    • Anglo-French Hundred Years War (1685-1815)
    • UK-French was almost draw; Austria Succession war, Spain Succession War.
    • Seven Years' War (1754-63): UK+Proissen vs. France+Spain+Russian+Sweden;
    • North America: UK overwhelmed the war; French and Indian War
    • Southern India: Carnatic Wars; UK's Madras (now Chennai) vs. French Pondicherry
  • the idea of Nation-State:
    • Thomas Hobbs, 1588-1679: 'Social Contract"; Leviathan
    • John Rocke, 1632-1704: 'Two Treatises of Government'; launched liberalism, separating the realms of Church and State.
• three greatest men: Bacon, Locke and Newton
• limitation of royal power; parliamentary democracy
• Adam Smith, 1723-90; liberal economics.
• Divine right of kings vs. tradition since Magna Carta
• Enlightened absolutists; appeared around UK and France.
  • Austria; Maria Teresia 1740-80
  • Prussia; Friedrich II 1740-86
  • Russian; Екатерина (Catherine) II 1762-96
• After the French Revolution, the enlightened absolutists planned counter revolution.
• >Top Rise of Corporations:
  • 17C Venice merchants: trade in Easter Mediterranean Sea.
    • risk diversification of trade vessel by groups
    • profit and loss settlement of each trade vessel
  • General partnership: unlimited liability partnership
    • difficult to assign freely
  • Limited corporation:
  • limited responsibility within the investment.
  • 1602 Netherlands; East India Company; long distance voyage company
    • by large dedicated sailing vessel; around the Cape of Good Hope to India
    • stock exchange established; starting stock trade
  • 1600 UK; East India Company; →1657 became limited responsibility organization.
• 18C the Industrial Revolution:
  • developed light industries such as Jenny spinning machine; hydraulic spinning machine
  • big capitals are not needed to invest light industries.
• 19C Economic development:
• mindset from 'uneasy wariness' to 'bold challenge'
• some failures can be covered by the growth trend.
• developed big industries such as railway transportation and steel manufacturing.
• large capital, and function of banks; promoted by the principle of limited responsibility.
• since 1930, the boom of railway construction mostly in US and Europe.
• Stock corporations law established;
  • from particular license system to normative system (granted juridical personality without permission from the authority if it meets certain requirements set forth in the law.)
  • 1856 UK Corporation Law; adopted normative system
  • 1903 US Delaware state corporation; there was moral antipathy to the limited companies due to influence of Protestantism.
    • 1930s: shareholder's double liability was abolished.
• Japan in Meiji era:
  • 1866 Yukichi Fukuzawa's "Wester Circumstances"
    • then best selling book of 200k copies
    • introduced theory of merchant companies, including stock companies and bill payments.
    • In Japan, there was no binding of Christian moral law.
  • 1872 National Bank law;
    • established private banks under license from the government.
    • payment of capital in the form of government bonds distributed in lieu of feudal stipends.
  • Railway companies:
  • 1881 Japan Railway Co. established, then, Sanyo Railway Co., and Kyushu Railway Co. were established.
  • No. 15 National Bank was established, supporting railway construction
  • 1899; Normative system in establishing companies.
  • 1906; Railway companies were nationalized after Japanese-Russo War (1904-05).
• >Top Central Bank:
  • 1716: France, established Royal Bank
    • issued banknotes convertible to gold.
    • BS is:
      (Asset) Purchaser's loan of the G-bond | (Debt) Royal banknotes
    • but in 1720, the convertible note became inconvertible.
  • 1803 France; sold French Louisiana to US at ＄15M (equivalent 24t of Au)
  • 1694 UK, England Bank
    • originally loan to the UK government £1.2M (equivalent 8.4t of Au);
      in return for the loan, England Bank issued transferable certificate (3% pa);
      which eventually evolved into an indefinite, interest-free banknote.
  • 1697 England bank issued banknote as the limited corporation.
  • 1821 returned to gold convertible banknote
  • 1844 Robert Peel Act of 1844 (Bank Law); monopolized issuance of the banknotes.
  • 1869-94 William Gladstone, PM of UK, issued G-bond for Napoleon war (2.6 times GDP)→could decrease this debt to 1/4 by beginning of 20C.
• Meiji-Japan:
  • 1871 New money act after the Meiji Resolution:
    
    • 1 Ryo =4 Bu =16 Shu denominated into 1 yen (aiming gold standard equivalent 1.5g of Au)
  • 1878: Gold and Silver combined standard system
  • 1877: South-West War (Satsuma rebellion)→1881 political change by Matsukata finance.
  • 1885: issued convertible banknote (Silver standard plus exchange management)
  • 1897: New Currency Act, after the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95); returned Gold standard (1 yen=0.75g Au).

1. それらは19Cに出揃った:

• 現代の政治･経済の基本的な形: ３点セット
  • 国民国家、株式会社、中央銀行
  • 19C前半の西欧で確立
  • 西欧以外では、日本が最速で成立 (30-40年遅れ)
• 近代へのプロローグ:
• 大航海時代
• 1492: Cristopher Columbus: カリブ海域に到達
• 1497: Basco da Gama: 喜望峰経由インドへ到達
• 西欧とアジアを単一の経済圏に
  (イスラム圏を通過せずに)
• 近代までのGDPの変遷:
• 明王朝とムガル帝国の巨大経済圏

• 1405-33: 鄭和の大艦隊
  • もし西欧の海鮮が遭遇していたら東洋貿易はなかった。
  • 鄭和の宝船, 排水量10,000t
  • コロンブス La Pinta号: 排水量 80 ton
  • 日本のGDP/1500=英+スペイン+ポルトガル合計
  • 
• 一人あたりのGDPは、アジアと西欧でほぼ同じ
  • 中世のイタリア: 専制的領主なし
    →都市国家の反映の源
  • 英仏の王権も限定的
    →一人当たりGDPの成長可能
  • 蘭の自治都市: 毛織物産業 (1000-)
• 市民的財産権・所有権の誕生:
  • まだ恣意的徴税権への対抗力の誕生
  • 地主的貴族の王家に対する自衛権
    →16C: 第一次囲い込み運動
    • 蘭が工場で、英国が後背地
    • 17Cには、英国が産業と交易で興隆
      →航海条例→英蘭戦争
  • 日本にとっての蘭は、軍事強国でなくなったことは幸い
• 国民国家の形成:
• 16Cは、西欧繁栄の世紀; 17Cは小氷河期
• 欧州: 30年戦争･宗教戦争･ペスト大流行･人口減少
• 独の衰退、仏の強大化
• 米への移動 (自営農民としての入植者; 清教徒)
• 第二次英蘭戦争 (1665-67); NYへ改名
• 中国: 明王朝→清へ交代
• 18C日本; 人口停滞、識字率向上
• 18C欧州; 英仏引き分け; Austria継承戦争; Spain継承戦争
• 18C北米; 英の圧勝; French & Indian戦争
• 18Cインド; 英の勝利 Carnatic戦争
• 国民国家の思想:
• Thomas Hobbs 1588-1679; 社会契約説
• John Rock 1632-1704; 王権の制限･議会制民主主義
• Adam Smith 1723-90; 自由主義経済学
  
• 仏の王権神授説 vs. Magna Cartaの伝統
• 啓蒙専制君主: 欧州周辺に登場 (英仏以外)
  • Austria; Maria Teresia 1740-80
  • Prussia; Friedrich II 1740-86
  • Russian; Екатерина II 1762-96
• 仏革命後は、啓蒙専制君主も反革命を画策
• 株式会社の勃興:
• 17C ベニスの商人; 東地中海貿易
  • Groupによる貿易船のリスク分散
  • 貿易船毎の損得精算方式
• 合名会社; 無限責任のPartnership
  • 自由譲渡が困難
• 有限会社: 責任を出資金の範囲に限定
• 1602 蘭, 東インド会社; 遠距離航海会社
  • 大型の専用帆船; 喜望峰回りのインド洋海域
  • 証券取引所設立; 株式売買開始
• 1600 英, 東インド会社→1657 有限責任組織
• 18C, 産業革命
  • Jenny紡績機、水力紡績機; 軽工業中心
  • 大資本はまだ不必要
• 19C, 経済成長
  • "不安な警戒心"→"大胆な挑戦心"
  • 多少の失敗は、成長が癒やしてくれる
  • 鉄道業や鉄鋼業勃興
  • 巨大資本必要; 銀行の役割; 有限会社原理
  • 1930以降; 欧米での鉄道ブーム
• 株式会社法
• 免許主義→準則主義へ
• 1856 英国会社法制; 準則主義へ移行
• 1903 米国Delaware州会社法制定 (米国Protenstantの精神風土の影響による有限会社への道徳的反感)
  • 株主倍額責任 (1930年代に廃止)
• 明治日本:
• 1866 福沢諭吉 "西洋事情"; 20万部発行
  • 株式会社や手形制度の紹介; 商人会社論
  • 日本には、キリスト教的道徳律の縛りなし
• 1872 国立銀行条例 (国の免許による民間銀行設立)
• 金禄公債による資本金払込 (禄の代わりの公債)
• 鉄道会社設立
  • 1881; 日本鉄道設立; その後山陽鉄道、九州鉄道
  • 第15国立銀行設立; 鉄道建設支援
  • 1899; 株式会社設立の準則主義化
  • 1906 日露戦争後に、鉄道会社の国有化
• 中央銀行:
  • 1716 仏, 王立銀行設立;
    • 金兌換券発行
    • (債権) 国債購入者貸付金 | (負債) 王立銀行券
      • 金兌換の不換紙幣化 (1720)
  • 1803 仏領Lousianaを米国に売却 15Mドル(Au 24t)
  • 1694 英国 Engliland銀行
    • 政府への貸付 £1.2M (Au 8.4t)
    • 貸付の見返り; 譲渡可能捺印手形 3%pa
      →無期限･無利子の銀行券へ進化
    • 1697 株式会社組織での銀行券発行
    • 1821 金兌換再開
    • 1844 Robert Peel銀行条例; 銀行券の独占発行権
    • William Gradstone首相;
      Napoleon戦争の戦費の公債発行; GDPの2.6倍
      →20C初には1/4にまで減少
• 明治日本:
  • 1871 新貨条例:
    • 1両=4分=16朱→1円=Au 1.5g (金本位制志向)
  • 1878: 金銀貨併用制
  • 1877: 西南戦争→1881 明治14年政変 松方財政
  • 1885: 兌換銀行券発行 (銀本位制+為替管理)
  • 1897: 新貨条例, 日清戦争後; 1円=Au 0.75g 金本位制

>Top 2. Globalism causing the divided world:

• Widening disparity between the developed and the developing countries:
  • 19C European population is almost same as 30%; but GDP grew 30% to 80% (1950)
  • comparative dominance theory; causing international division of labor.
• Importance of the monetary system:
• which is the platform for capital investment and value-added reinvestment.
• 1978 China: opened since Reform & Opening-up policy
• 1870 France: The Third Republic
• 1865 US: end of the Civil War (1861-65)
• War dead 650k (2% of population; 5% of the South population)
• Cf: WWII Japan; War dead 3M (3.5%)
• 1865-93: Western pioneer era after the Civil War.
  • 1848: Californian gold rush
  • 1868: Spanish-American War
• >Top GDP per capita; Major countries (>Fig.)
  • 1500-1820
  • 1820-1870
  • 1870-1913
  • 1820-: Economic development in West Europe by the industrial revolution and after Napoleon war.
  • 1914/7-1918/11: WWI
    • War death; 10M
    • Withdrawals from the war; Russia →birth of USSR
    • Germany; Weimar Republic
    • Women's suffrage (Japan from 1945-)
    • 1924 recovered gold standard including Germany
      • 1923 Rentenmark; issued to stop hyperinflation, backed by the land used for agriculture and business.
      • Japan stuck to the gold standard (1 Yen= Au 0.75g)
        • until 1922; Siberian Intervention War
        • 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake
        • 1927 Showa financial crisis
    • 1939-2008: GDP per capita (>Fig.)
    • 1929/10/24 NY Stock Market Crash; Black Thursday
    • 1929/11/21 Japan; liberalization of gold export (return gold standard); Junnosuke Inoue finance minister of Giichi Tanaka Cabinet.
    • 1931 banned gold export by Korekiyo Takahashi finance minister of Wakatsuki Cabinet.
      • toward militarism, from opposition to Mitsui zaibatsu group
      • continuous progress from suspension of gold standard, fiscal expansion, and forming block economy.
    • causes of WWI and WWII:
      • conflict of interest over Germany
      • during truce between the wars, the block economy progressed.
• >Top Bretton Woods Regime:
  • 1945-71 established international monetary order, including the function of IMF and IBRD; with obligation to adopt external exchange rates tying to gold.
    • in 1944 prepared during WWII and agreed at Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire, US among 44 allied nations.
  • 1947 GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), signed at Geneva.
  • 1995 WTO was established as the successor to GATT; these have succeeded in reducing tariffs.
    • the average tariffs were about 22% in 1947, but were 5% after the Uruguay Round in 1999.
  • US: formal gold standard, ＄35=Au 1oz(=31.1g)
  • 1952: Japan participated in Bretton Woods system; ＄1=¥360
  • Under the fixed exchange system, trade is promoted to be liberalized but capital is not.
    • Countries with trade deficit tighten monetary policy and curb imports to maintain the fixed exchange rate.
  • Remarks; Soviet Union showed smooth recovery after the war, while Argentina showed stagnation.
• >Top Floating Exchange Rate System:
  • 1971 Richard Nixon stopped convertible exchange of US dollars.
  • Floating exchange system eliminated the need for capital management.
• 1980s: Social liberalism or Neoliberalism:
  • 1986 Friedrich A. von Hayek; "The Constitution of liberty"
  • Started the 'Race to the Bottom'; socio-economic change to deregulate government function, to reduce taxes for corporation and for the rich, and to reduce labor cost to maintain global competitiveness
  • →Washington Consensus (standard reforms toward market-based approach)
• Progress in digitalization:
  • No more increasing cost.
  • Knowledge tends to belong to the company which provided the environment to create knowledge.
  • Intellectual Property rights are being focused in companies.
  • Labor alienation is getting obvious;
    • or rather time alienation during knowledge society.
• Other development:
  • EU's common market.
  • China's steady economic growth
  • Policy Mix: combines fiscal and monetary policies for economic and price measures.
• Interest rate of money (i), and interest rate of goods (n):
  • n-rate: =natural rate of interest: comparison of exchange priced of current and future wealth.
  • Thomas Pikety; 'Capital in 21C'
    • why expand disparity; verified historical trend: inappropriate fact
    • r (return on capital) > g (real growth rate ≒natural interest rate)
    • in first 20C; tax adjusted as after tax of return on capital; due to WWI and WWII
      • until modern times, there occurred rebellion or smashing; now by progressive taxation
      • Wealth Tax
    • Intervention by Central Bank: r > g >i (real interest rate=policy interest rate - CPI); in case of easing period
      • market mechanism should aim to be r=g=i
      • if CB aims CPI=2%,by maintaining i=0 or minus, which eventually expands disparity.
  • Trend since end of 20C:
    • lowering of n-rate:
    • since 1990; in Japan particularly after the collapse of bubble economy.
      • Trend of i <n: promotes investors' activities
      • Trend of i >n: curb investment
  • >Top Liquidity Trap:
    • Interest rate has fallen to close to zero, liquidity preference may become absolute; everyone prefers holding cash rather than holding a debt which yields so low of interest rate.
    • Monetary easing of different dimension: increasing money supply by G-bond will not raise prices.
    • Global decline of 'n' means:
      • decline of productive population
      • global environmental constraints
      • stagnation of production technology
      • widening of disparity between rich and poor
  • Balance Sheet of Government and Central Bank: (>Table.)
  • Government BS:
    

    Gov. debt redemption funds (S) Central Bank equity (K)

    Market-held G-bonds (B) Central Bank-held G-bonds (C)

  • Central Bank BS:
    

    Central Bank-held G-bonds (C) Credit to the market (L) Gold reserves, stocks, etc.(Z)

    Base money (M) Central Bank Equity (K)

  • Integrated Government BS:
    

    Gov. debt redemption funds (S) Credit to the market (L) Gold reserves, stocks, etc.(Z)

    Base money (M) Market-held G-bonds (B)

    
    
    • FTPL (Theory of Price Level): by above BS
      (FTPL argues fluctuation of CPI is a phenomenon by fiscal policy, and fluctuation of money supply by financial policy will not affect CPI; by US Christopher A. Sims)
      • $P=\frac{M+B-L}{S+Z}$
      • or $P=\frac{M+B}{S}\;$ neglecting small items
      • while $B=\frac{b_1}{(1+l_1)}+\frac{b_2}{(1+l_1)(1+l_2)}+...$
      • and $S=\frac{s_1}{(1+r_1)}+\frac{s_2}{(1+r_1)(1+r_2)}+...$ ( by DCF)
        • where, $i_n$ are nominal interest rate of each period; and $b_n$ are debt repayment of each period.
    • Thus financial policy operates the present value of market-held G-bond (B)
    • Fisher's Equation:
      (1+nominal interest rate=(1+natural interest rate)×(1+CPI expectation)
    • Enormous monetary easing means to make bigger base money (M), which causes lowering the ratio of above (B); eventually impact by financial policy becomes less effective.
• About MMT (Modern Monetary Theory):
  • heterodox macroeconomic theory
  • Stephany Kelton:
    If inflation occurs, it it enough to control the finances by raising taxes;
    →This means that any policy can do as long as inflation does not occur.
    →Even it is okay for the nation to make monopolized gambling industry.
  • Monopoly of currency issuance by Central Bank is losing its persuasion.
  • Facebook's 'Libra'; totally surrendered
  • Central Bank could exist under the growing economy of 19C.
    • The road to serfdom, 1944, Friedrich A.von Hayek
    • The denationalization of money, 1976, Friedrich A.von Hayek
  • Liquidity Trap: after the interest rate has fallen to a certain level, almost everyone prefers holding cash rather than holding a debt which yields so low an interest rate; it will be impossible to accelerate or decelerate the economy.
  • It is the original liberalism which was acquired by blood and tears; while neoliberalis is established by pursuding profit.

2. グローバリズムと分岐した世界:

• 先進国と途上国の格差拡大
  • 19C 欧州人口 30%で横ばい; GDP 30%→80% (1950)
  • 比較優位論; 国際分業
• 通貨制度の重要性
• 資本受け入れと付加価値再投資の装置
• 中国: 1978以降の改革開放政策
• 1870 仏第三共和政
• 1865 南北戦争集結
• 戦死者 65万人 2% (南部は5%)
  • 第二次大戦の日本の戦死者 3.5%
  • 米国は、南北戦争後に西部開拓時代
  • 1868 米西戦争
• 主要国一人当たりGDP成長率:
• 
• 1820-: 西欧の経済成長: 産業革命とNapoleon戦争後
• 第一次世界大戦
• 戦死者 10M人
• ロシアの離脱→ソ連の誕生
• 独: ワイマール共和国
• 女性参政権 (日本は1945から)
• 1924: 独を含め金本位制復活
  • レンテンマルク; 土地を通貨の裏付けとする
• 日本は、開戦前の貨幣法平価(1円=Au 0.75g)への執着
  • 1922 までのシベリア出兵
  • 1923 関東大震災
  • 1927 昭和金融恐慌
• 1939 - 2008 GDP per capita (US＄ 1990):
• 
  • 1929/10/24 NY株式大暴落; 暗黒の木曜日
  • 1929/11/21 日本金解禁; 田中義一内閣井上準之助
    • 1931 若槻内閣高橋是清 金解禁終了
    • 三井財閥への反発から軍国主義へ
    • 金本位制停止･財政拡大･ブロック経済化同時進行
  • 第一次･第二次世界大戦の原因;
    • 独を巡る利害対立
  • 休戦期は、ブロック経済化
• Bretton Woods体制:
• 1947-47 IMF & World Bank中心の国際通貨体制
• 1948 GATT 1948
• 米国による形式的金本位性 ＄35=Au 1oz (31.1g)
• 1952 日本参加 ＄1=¥360
• 固定為替下: 貿易自由化･資本不自由化
  • 貿易収支赤字国は、金融引き締め、輸入抑制する
• 留意点: 戦後ソ連の順調な回復、アルゼンチンの停滞
• 変動相場制:
• 1971 Richard Nixon ドル金兌換交換停止
• 変動相場制により資本管理不要に
• 新自由主義; 底辺への競争 (Race to the bottom)
  • F. Hayek; '自由の条件'
• デジタル化の進展:
  • 費用逓増 (incresing cost)ではなくなった。
• 知は、知の創出活動を提供した企業のもの
• 企業は、知的財産権の法整備に注力
• 労働疎外→知識創造時間疎外
• その後の変化: EU統一市場、中国の発展
• Policy Mix: 財政政策と金融政策の独自化
  • 景気維持に財政を、物価安定に金融政策を利用可
• カネの利子率(i)とモノの利子率(n):
  • モノの利子率=自然利子率: 現在と将来の富の交換価格
  • Piketyの r (資本収益率) > g (実質成長率≒自然利子率)
  • 
  • 20C最後以降の傾向:
    • 自然利子率(n)が低下傾向が固定化
  • 1990-: 特に、日本ではバブル崩壊以降
    • i <n: 投資家活動活発化
    • i >n: 投資抑制効果
  • 流動性の罠: 金融政策の限界
    • 異次元緩和策: 国債を買って貨幣供給を増やすだけでは、物価の上昇は起きない
  • 世界的な n の低下:
    • 生産性人口の減少
    • 地球環境的制約
    • 生産技術進歩の停滞
    • 貧富格差拡大
• 政府･中央銀行のBS:
  • 政府のBS: S=Primary Surplus

  • 政府債務償還財源(S) 中央銀行自己資本(K)

    市中保有国債(B) 中央銀行保有国債(C)

  • 中央銀行のBS:

  • 中央銀行保有国債(C) 対市中与信(L) 金準備･株式等(Z)

    ベースマネー(M) 中央銀行自己資本(K)

  • 統合政府のBS:

  • 統合政府債務償還財源(S) 中央銀行対市中与信(L) 金準備等(Z)

    ベースマネー(M) 市中保有国債(B)

• 副作用: 異次元緩和によって、ベースマネー(M)比率増大して市中保有国債(B)の比率が低下; →結果として金融政策による効果がますます薄くなる。
  • 異次元緩和によって本来銀行制度が引き受けるべきリスクの一部を中央銀行が引き受けたとも言える。
  • 将来のインフレーションリスクの「安全化」とも言える。
• MMTに対して:
  • Stephany Kelton; インフレになれば増税で財政をコントロールすれば足りる→インフレが起こらなければ何をやっても良いのか→賭博産業の独占でも良いのか
    • (10pin麻雀まではOK)→悪い政策の自己拡大
    • 決済システム難民が増える可能性 。
• 通貨発行独占の説得力喪失
• Facebook 'Libra'; Facebookの全面降伏の幼さ
• 19Cの成長経済下だったから中央銀行が存在できた。
  • The Road to serfdom (隷属への道), 1944; Hayekは、裁量的金融政策の長期的無効論者
  • The denatonalization of money, 1976, (貨幣発行自由化論Friedrich A.v. Hayek
• 流動性の罠: 利子率がゼロになると中央銀行モデルが毀損する; 景気の加速･減速ができなくなる。
• MMTとLibra:
  • 提唱者達の未熟 <痛い所を疲れた権威者の拒絶反応
  • FTPLも痛い所を突いている; 2000年頃は冷遇で済んだ
• 元来の自由主義は血と涙で獲得するもの、新自由主義は儲かるから求めるものに変わった。

>Top 3. Nations which falls into the sea of competition:

• What Globalism has brought:
  • 'Race to the bottom'; the fate of Icarus
  • Competition chain cutting corporate tax:
    • 2000: Germany 50%, Japan-US-France-Canada 40%, Netherlands 35%, UK 30%, Swiss 25%\
    • 2019: France 32%, Japan-Germany 30%, Canada 27%, US 26%, Netherlands 25%, Swiss 21%, UK 19%
    • OECE considers the minimum rate: as low as 15%!
• Tax Haven:
  • Tax system considering measure against tax haven, such as deemed income taxation.
  • Invisible Consumption tax, which is virtually a labor tax.
    • Consumption tax = Corporate tax + Labor tax
    • Reduction of Corporate tax, which taxes on the capital income, means to recover by raising value-added tax which also taxes on wage payments portion.
  • Flattening Personal Income Tax:
  • 'Laffere Curve': when the tax rate is 0% or 100%, the tax revenue will be zero.
    • Escape of the rich
    • Neoliberalism: Thatcher & Reagan; lowered the Personal Income tax to prevent the escape of the rich.
    • Corporate Tax: actual tax rates are complicated because of various exemptions such as capital investment.
    • Consumption tax: difficult to save this tax which imposed external figures such as sales or purchases amounts.
    • "Atlas Shrugged, 1957" by Russian-American writer Ayn Rand
      • 'Objectism': moral purpose of one's life is pursuit of one's own happiness; thus the only social system consistent with this morality is that fully respects individual rights (ie. laissez-faire capitalism)
        • Objectivist ethics are consistent with anarcho-capitalism instead of minarchism.
      • Who supports the government?; middle layer support the middle layer.
      • Highly educated white middle class aware the burden of supporting the country.
      • US: Libertarian Party's supporters about 3%
        • Norlan Chart: Liberal vs. Libertarian
    • Pros & Cons of privatization of railway business: how to secure transportation capacity in case of emergency like a war.
      • Postal services: same rate within the national territory.
    • Nation vs. Globalism:
      • from how to monitor companies to how to attract global companies.

3. 競争の海に落ちる国家:

• Globalismのもたらしたもの:
  • 底辺への競争: イカロスの運命
  • 法人税引き下げ競争の連鎖
    • 2000: 独50%,日米仏加 40%, 蘭35%, 英 30%, Swiss25%
    • 2019: 仏32% 日独30%, 加27%, 米26%, 蘭25%, Swiss21%, 英19%
• Tax Haven:
  • Tax Haven対策税制; みなし所得課税など
• 消費税という見えにくい労働課税:
  • 消費税=法人税＋賃金税
  • 資本収益への課税である法人税の引き下げの分を、賃金支払にも課税する付加価値税の引き上げによって取り戻した形
• フラット化する個人所得税:
  • ラッファー曲線:
    • 所得税0%または100%いずれも税収は0になる。
  • 富者たちの逃亡
  • 新自由主義: Thatcher & Reagan: 所得税最高税率引き下げ
    • 富者の逃亡を防ぐ
  • 法人税: 設備投資減税など複雑
  • 消費税: 売上/仕入など外形数字に課税するので、節税しにくい。
• "肩をすくめるアトラス" Atlas Shrugged:
  • Objectism:
  • 政府は誰が支えるのか。中間層が中間層を支える。
  • 教育程度の高い白人中間層: 国を支える重荷を荷重に負わされている意識
  • Libertarian党の支持拡大 3%
  • Norlan Chart: Liberal vs. Libertarian
• 民営化の功罪
  • 鉄道事業: 有事の際の輸送力確保
  • 郵便事業: 国家の領域内は、同一料金
• 国家とGlobarism:
  • 企業監視からGlobal企業誘い込みへ

>Top 4. Enterprises which permiate into people 's hearts:

• GAFA; Google (search engine); Amazon (online shopping); Facebook (SNS), Apple (fashionable computer & smart phone), or FAANG including Netflix
  • Digital goods; enourmous sales supported by no-increase costs
  • Rarity of time (by Gary Becker, 1965)
  • Lack of interest (by Simon); business scramble for customers' interest
• Pseudo-national enterprises:
• Amazon and Apple are based on the real world.
• Chinese BAT: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tensent, or BATH including Huawei.
  • What is privacy?
• Price of Information:
  • Information brought by traveling entertainers.
  • Diffusion of printing technology; printed news paper
• Temptation of a gentle Big Brother;
  • pleasant & comfortable truth that is close to your interests
  • relationship between various information make up meaning of the word; same with deep learning method.
• KYC (Know Your Customer):
  • Profile information rather than information itself
  • Cluster attribute can be specified.
  • Difficut to impersonation (identit thief)
• Privacy right:
• Self-information control right
• >Top Personal credit rating:
  • Sesami Credit (China); includes Identity, Contract, Credit, Network, Behavior information.
  • advanced in face recoginiton technology
  • cashless payments
  • 'the Filer vbubble' by Echo amplification;
  • 'Information Cocoon'
    • How many minds produce knowledge
• Expanding disparity:
  • financing on Brockchain (Etherium)
  • ICO (Initial Coin Offering)
  • STO (Secuirity Token Offering)
• Era of organizational change;
• particularly, change of joint-stock company

4. 人々の心に入り込む企業:

• GAFA; Google (検索エンジン), Amaon (ネット通販), Facebook (SNS), Apple (コンピュータ･ファッション)
  • デジタル財; 費用逓増なし
  • 時間の希少性 (Gary Becker. 1965)
  • 関心の欠乏 (Simon): 企業による関心の奪い合い
• 国家にようになる企業:
  • GAFA; AmazonとAppleはリアル世界に基盤
• BAT
  • Privacyとは何か
• 情報の価格:
• 旅芸人からの情報
• 印刷技術の普及; 瓦版
• 優しいBig Brotherの誘惑
  • 関心に寄り添った心地よい真実
  • 情報同士の関連性が言葉の意味を作る
    • Deep Learningも同じ
• KYC (Know Your Customer)
  • 情報よりProfile情報
  • Cluster属性を特定可能
  • なりすましが困難
• Privacy権
  • 自己情報Control権
• 個人信用格付
• Sesami Credit: 身分･契約･信用･人脈･行動情報
• 顔認証技術の進歩とCashless決済
• Echo増幅による"The Filter Bubble",
• "情報の繭" (信息茧房)
• 拡大する所得格差:
• Blockchain (Etherium)上の資金調達
• ICO (Intial Coin Offering)
• STO (Security Token Offering)
• 株式会社という企業組織変化の時代

>Top 5. xxxx:

• E

5. xxxx:

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