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Do Gray Rhinos pose a greater threat
than Black Swans?

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2017

Michele Wucker (Nathan Jaye)


Do great rhinos pose a greater threat than black swans?


  1. Introduction:
  2. Gray rhinos vs. Black swan:
  3. The Lost Quarter Century:
  4. Gray rhino vs Elephant in the room:
  5. Four types of gray rhinos:
  6. The worst thing to face a charging rhino:
  7. Gray rhinos as a framework:
  8. Reference:
  1. 序文:
  2. 灰色のサイと黒い白鳥:
  3. 灰色のサイの脅威:
  4. 灰色のサイと部屋の中の象:
  5. 4種類の灰色のサイ:
  6. 突進してくるサイへの最悪の対応:
  7. フレームワークとしての灰色のサイ:
  8. 参考:
  • In 2013/1 at Davos World Economic Forum, Michele Wucker raised a metaphor of 'gray rhinos' representing probable but usually neglected potential risks, compared with 'black swans' having lower possibility but a big impacts.
  • In 2019/2 She made a presentation on this theme at TED. (https://www.thegrayrhino.com/ted-talk-why-we-ignore-obvious-problems-and-how-to-act-on-them/#prettyPhoto)

; ; Black swan; Charging rhino; Due diligence; Gray rhino; ; Meta rhino; Multiple rhinos; New coke; Recurring rhino; ; Unidentified rhino; Worst thing to do;


>Top 0. Introduction:

  • Gray rhinos are popping up everywhere — in a front-page story in The New York Times or in an announcement in an official Chinese government publication that sent Chinese stocks tumbling.
  • The apt metaphor of the “gray rhino,” referring to a highly likely yet ignored threat, was coined by Michele Wucker, speaker and author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.
  • In an interview with CFA Institute Magazine, Wucker discusses charging, recurring, and meta rhinos (and how to handle them); their relation to black swans and elephants in the room; and why we often don’t see the danger right in front of us.


  • How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers. We Ignoreby Michele Wucker Reader Discussion Guide Why Read THE GRAY RHINO? Why do we ignore obvious problems when the costs and consequences of failing to act are obvious?
  • The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the digital technologies that upended the media business, and the rising vulnerability to cyber-attacks were all foreseeable. These are the “gray rhinos” of this book. Unlike the improbable and unpredictable “black swans” that captured the imagination of the business and policy worlds, a gray rhino is a highly probable threat that, like its relative the elephant in the room, has not gotten the attention it deserves.
  • Gray rhinos are predicted well in advance and often avoidable if we act in time. So why do leaders and decision makers keep missing clear opportunities to head off preventable crises? Why are we not better at dealing with what’s right in front of us? And how we do better confronting the gray rhinos facing us today? Author Michele Wucker draws on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, recent work in cognitive science and decision making, and in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world to explain how to recognize and strategically counter high-impact dangers.
  • The questions she raises are provocative, and all the more powerful for being deceptively simple. This guide provides questions to facilitate conversation in your book club, reading group, classroom, organization, or family –or as a tool for you to think about the Gray Rhinos in your life, work, and the world.
  • More information at www.wucker.com. You may share this document and the information in it under a Creative Commons license for non-commercial share -alike use with attribution.

0. 序文:

  • 灰色のサイはどこにでも登場して来ている。NY Timesの一面にも、また中国政府の株価暴落の発表にも。
  • 灰色のサイとは、実際にあり得るものと認識はしているものの無視していることの隠喩としてMichel Wuckerが「どのようにそれを認識し、我々が無視しがちなリスクに対処するか」を述べたことによる。
  • Wuckerは、CFA Institute誌とのインタビューで、こちらに突進してくる型のサイ、再発する型のサイ、変容したメタ型サイに (それらへの対策も含め) 分析している。それらを黒い白鳥や部屋の中の象と比較し、我々がいかに目前のリスクに対応できていなかを論述している。


  • これは明白な危機をどう認識し行動するかの著書である。対応をよるコストと結果は明らかになっているのに、なぜ我々はそのことを無視するのか?
  • 2008年に住宅バブル崩壊、ハリケーンカタリーナなど自然災害、デジタル技術によるメディアビジネスの転換、サイバー攻撃への脆弱性などは予見可能だった。これらはその本でいう'灰色のサイ'問題である。これは政治やビジネスいわれる想定外の事態としての'黒い白鳥'の例とは異なり、灰色のサイの話は想定内の危機のことであまり注目されていない。また'部屋の中の象'の話も同様である。
  • 灰色のサイの話は、予め予測されており、タイムリーに対応すれば防げる問題である。なぜリーダー達は、防げる可能性のある危機に対抗する機会を失い続けるのか? 我々はなぜ直面する課題にうまく対応できないのか? 今日灰色のサイが我々に突進して来ることにどう対応すべきなのか? 著者は政策立案や危機管理、認知科学や意思決定、世界の各リーダーとの取材を通じて、大きな危機に対し、如何に戦略的にそれを認識して対応するか解説している。
  • 彼女の提起したこの例え話は挑発的な表現ではあり、これによって議論が簡潔でパワフルになる。これは読書会やクラスや組織内での議論あるいは個人生活においても灰色のサイを思考の道具として考えることによって、会話が容易になることを意味する。
  • この情報は、Creative Commonsにより共用できる。

>Top 1. Gray rhinos vs. Black swans:

  • How are gray rhinos related to black swans?
  • In 2007, black swans were all people could talk about. It provided a very convenient explanation for the financial crisis. I think this black swan image captivated people partly because animals are very good at crystallizing our emotions. That’s why Aesop’s Fables are so powerful.
    When I was coming up with the rhino image, I was in my office and talking to a friend. I said, “It’s big. It’s scary. It’s dangerous. It’s got a horn.” The rhino popped into my head and my friend joked, “Oh, you could call it a black rhino.” I went to Wikipedia and discovered there are black rhinos and white rhinos, but the black ones aren’t actually black. The white ones aren’t actually white. They’re all gray, but until now nobody talked about the most obvious thing, which is that all rhinos are gray. That’s how the full metaphor popped into my head.
  • Do gray rhinos evolve into black swans?
    Behind every supposed black swan is a “crash” of gray rhinos (“crash” is the zoologically correct term for more than one rhino). You had several potential dangers in 2007 and 2008, and many people sounded the alarm. The black swan emerged when all these obvious dangers interacted, creating a problem much bigger than any one of them. That’s very hard to predict. It’s very hard to tell where it’s going to go — and how big it’s going to be. With gray rhinos, it’s generally a case not of if but when. If they all blow up at the same time, that’s when you end up with what happened in 2008 — a black swan.
  • >Top What exactly is a gray rhino?
    A gray rhino is the two-ton, horny thing that is coming right at you. You’ve a choice to do something about it or not. It’s a metaphor for the fact that so many of the things that go wrong in business, in policy, and in our personal lives are actually avoidable. We don’t pay enough attention to the big obvious problems that are in front of us. By regularly doing a gray rhino reality check, you can be way ahead of your competitors and your peers.
  • What’s a gray rhino reality check?
    It starts with a very simple question: What is my gray rhino? What’s the big thing in front of me that’s going to trample me unless I do something?
    Of course, that leads to a number of other questions: How good a job am I doing in dealing with it? Have I properly accounted for the cost of not dealing with it? How much power do I have to change it?
    If I have the power to do something, then what’s my goal? Is it just getting out of the way? Is it to turn the challenge into an opportunity? If I don’t have the power to do something, then who does have the power? What can I do to get them to change the situation?

1. 灰色のサイと黒い白鳥:

  • 灰色のサイは黒い白鳥とどのように関係しているか?
  • 2007年に、黒い白鳥は話題になった。それは金融危機を非常にうまく説明できたからだ。この黒い白鳥のイメージが人々に受け入れられたのは、動物によって捉え方が明確に表現されたからである。'それは巨大で脅威かつ危険で、攻撃の角もある’と表現すれば、すっきり理解できる。それは黒サイのことか言われたが、Wikipediaで調べたら、黒サイと白サイがいることがわかったが、黒や白といっても結局はすべてのサイは灰色ということで隠喩にした。
  • 灰色のサイは黒い白鳥に進化するのか?
  • では灰色のサイはどういう意味か?
  • 灰色のサイで何をチェックするのか?
    まず単純な質問から始める。何が私にとっての灰色のサイなのか? 何の課題が目前にあって、それに対処しないと踏み潰されてしまうのか? もちろんその他多くの疑問があり得る。それをすることが仕事にどう役立つのか? それをしないことによるコストを正しく把握したのか? それを変えるためにはどんな力が必要か、など。もし、何かをする力があるとすれば、私の目標は何か? それは現状から逃げるだけではなのか? それは別のチャンスに変えることになるか? もし何かする力がなければ、誰がそれをできるのか? 状況を変えるためにできる人の力を活用できるか?

>Top 2. The Lost Quarter Century:

  • Is admitting you have a gray rhino a problem?
    Speaking the gray rhino out loud is a huge step in dealing with it. Also, it lets you know that you’re not alone.
    There’s no shame in having a gray rhino. It’s okay to acknowledge that we’re not dealing with something. Once you accept that it’s normal to not recognize something, it opens you up to dealing with it. Just asking yourself regularly, “What’s my gray rhino?” gives you more power to deal with the situation.
    I often talk about the gray rhino being a friend, not just a foe. When I came up with the image, I was picturing something big and scary and dangerous. Once I started researching the book, I went to South Africa and learned about the rhino poaching crisis. Humans are a bigger threat to rhinos than rhinos are to us, which made me feel guilty for portraying the rhino the way I do. So when I speak in public, I often urge people to think of the rhino as your friend. If you can see the gray rhino in front of you, you’re way ahead of everyone who can’t see what’s right in front of them.
  • Once we see the rhino, what should we do?
    One of the most important strategies is evaluating your decision-making process. Are you putting off key financial planning decisions? Are you not making some of the career decisions you need to make? It’s helpful to have a system set up ahead of time, where you have a number of people who can help you do a better job of spotting gray rhinos and doing something about them.
    I recommend people form a personal board of directors. Do you have someone you can turn to, who can help you think through a situation, whether a colleague or a trusted confidant? Do you have that best friend or colleague who always says the things that you don’t want to hear — but really need to? Do you have a team who can come at a problem from different directions?
  • What prevents us from engaging threats?
    Lots of things get in the way. Some of them are psychological. They’re the little tricks our brains play on us. There are biases that make us look at things more optimistically than we might otherwise. There’s the instinct to deny things, which biologically serves as a way to protect us from things that are scary. There are decision-making biases that make it harder for us to do the right thing.
    There are also times when we think we don’t have the power to do something. The less power we feel, the less likely we are to do something. It’s sometimes called learned helplessness. Of course, for businesses or policymakers, there’s a whole other set of perverse incentives and resource constraints and other obstacles that can get in the way as well.
    The challenge is figuring out why it is that you’re not doing what you could be doing to deal with an obvious problem, then devising strategies to overcome those obstacles.

2. 灰色のサイという脅威:

  • 灰色のサイがいることを認識するか?
  • サイが現れたらどう対処すべきか?
    一番重要な戦略は意思決定のプロセスを評価することである。重要な資金計画を先延ばしにしていないか? 必要とするキャリアの決定をしていないか? 先行してシステムを構築するのはいいことで、灰色のサイに対する有効な手立てなどで、大勢の援助が得られる。
    私は、その人達を人事役員に推薦する。あなたには状況を考えるのを支援してくれるような同僚や信頼できる相手がいるだろうか? あなたが聞きたくないようなことを言ってくれる友人や同僚はいるだろうか、それは本当に必要なことなのだ。あなたに、別の方向から問題に対応してくれるチームがあるだろうか?
  • 脅威に取り組む上で何が障害になるのか?

>Top 3. Gray rhino vs. Elephant in the room:

  • How are gray rhinos related to the elephant in the room?
    The elephant in the room is, by definition, something that nobody talks about and nobody does anything about. The elephant in the room says to you, “Saying and doing nothing is normal.” The gray rhino says, “No, it’s not normal. You do have a choice. It’s not inevitable that I’m going to trample you.” Gray rhinos are things people are talking about, but not doing anything about.
    The truth is sometimes it takes training to see what’s in front of you. My first night on safari I was out with a German family who had been on safari for a couple weeks already. One of them said, “Look at those 20 elephants over there.” I looked. It was down the hill and up another hill. I didn’t see a single elephant.
    That had me really worried until I realized that until you train your eyes, it’s hard to see even large multiple-ton animals, and that’s okay to say. As you become more experienced at looking, it becomes easier to see what’s in front of you.
  • What was the story with China?
    The China situation is absolutely fascinating to me. Recently The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, came out with a warning that we need to deal with black swans and gray rhinos. The country interpreted the gray rhino reference as a message that the government was about to crack down on speculations and financial risks. Small-cap stocks immediately fell by nearly 5%. It was powerful to see the way this simple concept sent the message that the government was very serious about dealing with something that is obvious and that needs to be dealt with. That was a clear example of how powerful the gray rhino concept is in China.
    The government is also using gray rhinos as a signal to prepare people for what may happen so it’s not so much of a surprise. It is easier to make hard decisions if people can understand, “Look, if we don’t deal with this now, something much bigger and scarier down the road is going to come along.”
  • Someone obviously read your book.
    I know a number of high government and policy officials in places like Singapore, the Philippines, and Luxembourg have been looking at it. A number of leaders have embraced the concept. It’s interesting to see the contrast between the United States and China, where they’re very focused on dealing with their gray rhinos. In the United States, it seems like we’re talking about everything except what we need to be talking about.

3. 灰色のサイと部屋の中の象:

  • trample' 踏みにじる
  • 「灰色のサイ」と「部屋の中の象」とはどのような関係か?
    部屋の中の象の定義は、誰もそのことを言わないし、何も行動しないことである。部屋の中の象はあなたに言う、「 何も言わず何もしないのが正常なのだ」と。灰色のサイは言う「いやそれは正常ではない」と。あなたには選択肢がある。私があなたを踏みつけようとしているのは避けれないから。灰色のサイについては、人々は話をするが、何もしないのである。
  • 中国に関する話題ではどうか:
  • ある人達は明らかにこの本を読んでいる。:

>Top 4. Four types of gray rhinos:

  • You describe four types of rhinos: charging, recurring, meta, and unidentified. What are the differences?
    A charging rhino is something you need to deal with right away. So the first question is, how quickly is the rhino coming? How much damage is it going to do?
  • >Top A recurring rhino is something that you’ve seen in the past. You’ve got some kind of roadmap for how to deal with it.
    Examples of recurring rhinos are financial crises and boom and bust cycles that periodically repeat. For example, look at how we deal with the flu virus. Every year there’s a flu virus. We spend months and months trying to pinpoint and predict what virus is most likely to be the problem. Then we form a plan to deal with it. Recurring rhinos can be easier to deal with, even though they’re not all the same.
  • >Top Meta-rhinos are the most dangerous. It’s really more about existing structural factors that affect your ability to deal with a rhino. One of the biggest meta-rhinos is corporate governance. Look at the decision-making structure of companies. Although they’re getting better, in many cases it’s often people who went to the same schools, who’ve known each other forever, who come from the same socioeconomic background, and who turned out mostly to be men. There’s lots and lots of research that shows that diverse decision-making groups make better decisions. They assess risks better. They respond to risks better. They also respond to opportunities better. One of the biggest meta-rhinos is that our corporate decision-making structures are not as resilient and able to recognize and properly assess and respond to risks as they need to be.
  • >Top What about unidentified rhinos?
    Unidentified rhinos are tough ones where you’re not completely sure what the problem is. In my book, I write about artificial intelligence and what that means in terms of threats. In many ways, these threats are still unclear. Some people say, “Oh, robots are never going to be able to do so many things.” Other people say, “Well, yes robots are going to take jobs, but they’re going to create so many more jobs.” I think the only certain thing about artificial intelligence and other technological changes is that there are going to be huge disruptions to the job markets. The nature of those changes won’t be completely clear for some time.
  • Rhinos aren’t strictly market-related. What about organizational and personal rhinos?
    One of the most interesting things is the way in which personal and organizational gray rhinos interact. Look at the turmoil that Uber has gone through. For quite some time, there has been a lot of criticism of the CEO’s behavior. In this case, these were personal habits that spilled [out and] caused a lot of damage to the company before the board finally stepped in and said, “We’ve got to do something about it.”
    That’s not an isolated case.
    >Top I was talking with a friend who is CEO of a private equity firm. He told me that he’d been sitting down with his team recently, reviewing some of the investments that did not meet their expectations. He said, “Every single one of the investments that went wrong had evidence right in the due diligence that there were problems.” It wasn’t problems with the technology. It wasn’t problems with the market. It wasn’t problems with the business plan. It was personal issues with the CEO, such as driving under the influence or domestic violence. Personal problems ended up blowing up the company’s management and future. There’s a much closer relationship between personal and organizational gray rhinos than most of us probably admit.

4. 灰色のサイは4種類いる:

  • due diligence: M&Aなどで当然なされるべき注意義務
  • 灰色のサイは4種類いる。突進型、繰り返し型、メタ型、正体不明型である。
  • 繰り返し型サイとは、過去に見たことのあるサイである。それへの対応も何がしか知っている場合がある。この繰り返し型サイの例としては、金融危機や好況の循環が定期的に繰り返すような場合である。例えば、インフルエンザへの対応も、毎年繰り返される。何ヶ月もその売りするを特定してどのような問題を起こすのか予測する。それからそれへの対応を決める。繰り返し型サイは、いつも同じとは限らないが、対応方法は比較的容易である。
  • メタ型サイは一番危険である。そのサイがどんな構造に関わる問題があり、どんな対応ができるのか難しいのである。その最大の例はコーポレート・ガバナンスである。会社の意思決定の仕組みを考えてみよう。その課題は改善されつつあると言っても、多くの場合、多くの関係者は同じ教育を受け、昔から相互に馴染みがあり、同じ社会経済的な背景を持ち、ほとんどの場合男性ということになる。多様な背景を持つ人達による意思決定の方がより良い結果を出すとの多くの研究結果があり、その方がリスクが少ないのである。また機会に対する対応も良くなる。このメタ型サイの最大の特徴は、会社の意思決定プロセスが、危機に対して復元力がない(レジリエントでない)ことで、リスクに対しての認識や適切は評価、対応ができないということである。
  • 正体不明型サイとは:
  • サイは、市場動向に関連はしていない。では組織や個人的なサイはどうなのか?
    興味深いことには、個人的あるいは組織的な灰色のサイがいて相互作用することです。Uberを巡る混乱を思い出して下さい。しばらくの間はCEOの行動に多くの批判が集中しました。これは、会社が「何とか対応しなければならない」と踏み出す前に、個人的な習慣が漏れ出し結果として会社に多大の損害をもたらしたケースで、個別的な事例ではない。個人企業のCEOでもある友人と話したことがある。彼が言うには、最近彼のチーム員と席を共にして、ある投資案件検討したが、それは彼らの期待に沿うような案件ではなかった。彼曰く「どのような案件でもうまく行かなかったという案件には、問題があったという当然させれるべき注意義務(due diligence)としての証拠があった」。それは技術上の問題でも、市場の問題でも、ビジネスプラン上の問題でもなかった。それはCEOに関する個人的な問題、例えはある影響はDVなどの下での運転行為とかである。個人的な問題は会社管理や会社の将来を吹き飛ばしてしまうことがある。個人と組織に関わる灰色のサイの問題は我々の認識以上に密接に関連している。

>Top 5. The worst thing to face a charging rhino:

  • What’s the worst thing to do when facing a charging gray rhino?
    The worst thing is to do nothing. A lot of people are afraid of doing the wrong thing. I think that’s a big reason why gray rhinos don’t get dealt with. People are afraid they’re going to make a wrong decision about how to fix something, or they’re going to get blamed for doing the wrong thing instead of at least trying to do something. In many cases, you may make the wrong decision about what to do. But that may actually change the playing field. It can shake things up so that you’re more likely to get to a better place.
    >Top A good example is New Coke. New Coke is always told as a story of a marketing disaster. In fact, Coke looked at declining market share. They looked at evidence of changing taste. They did focus groups. They came up with what they thought was a good plan. The immediate aftermath was bad, because everybody hated New Coke. But bringing out Coca-Cola Classic and the way that they responded to the crisis actually increased their market share above what it was when New Coke was introduced.
  • So you can turn a trampling into trampolines?
    This is an important point. A lot of times, we might be complacent unless there is a crisis. Generally, when that happens people say, “That’s what I needed to push me onward.” One of the big mistakes we make is not letting things get trampled when they need to be, whether it’s a corporate decision or leaving a job or a relationship that you don’t like.
    Kodak is one of my favorite corporate examples. They invented the digital camera. But they put it on a back burner, because they thought it would cannibalize too much of their existing business. That turned out to be a bad decision. They weren’t willing to leave behind something that was obsolete.
    Kodak thought the gray rhino was the threat to their existing business. The real threat was the failure to embrace an opportunity. Companies and individuals need to ask “What’s the bigger threat?” Is it that a product line or process is obsolete, or is it that I’m too slow to embrace a bigger opportunity?
  • >Top What do we do about multiple rhinos?
    That’s something I’m often asked in China, where I’ve visited twice this year. China has been dealing with the need to grow the economy, the need to bring people out of poverty and to keep people in jobs to maintain social stability. At the same time, they have financial imbalances they have to deal with. They have huge environmental issues. How do you choose among all of these issues?
    One way is to ask yourself if there’s a solution that will handle multiple rhinos at once. In China, for example, the growth of renewable energy and sustainable, green jobs can actually help to create more jobs, keep people employed, and also deal with the environmental problem. That’s one solution. Can you deal with more than one rhino at once?
    Another solution is prioritizing gray rhinos. Which one is coming at you fastest? Which one is going to have the biggest impact? An important question for me is, how closely related is one gray rhino to another? If you solve one rhino, will you create unintended negative consequences? Or will you solve a lot of other problems at the same time?
    Climate change is a great example of this. If you don’t deal with climate change, you’ve got to deal with pollution. You’ve got to deal with increasingly violent storms. You’ve got to deal with food instability. You’ve got to deal with forced migration. You’ve got to deal with water shortages.
    To me, dealing with climate change helps you to address a whole bunch of other problems. That’s really the way that people should be thinking. How does this gray rhino fit into a system? As I said before, the most dangerous gray rhinos are the ones that move in crashes. When a whole bunch of them are coming at once, then you really better watch out.

5. 突進してくるサイへの最悪の対応:

  • back burner: 後回し
  • 灰色のサイが突進して来る場合の最悪の対応とは:
    その好事例はNew Cokeである。New Cokeは、市場惨事の話によく登場する。実際にCokeは市場シェアを下落していた。彼らはそれを味の変化の証拠と見ていた。彼らは対策チームを編成し、改善案を考え出した。その結果は失敗で、人々はNew Cokeに失望した。その結果、元の味をCoca-Cola Clssicとして販売した所、レベルに回復した。
  • サイに踏みつけられたが(trampling)、それをトランポリンのように跳ね返せるか?
  • 多数のサイが襲ってきたらどうするか?
  • 一頭以上のサイの攻撃に対処することは可能か?
    別の解決は、灰色のサイに優先度をつけることである。どのサイが一番速くあなたの所に到達するのか? どのサイが最も大きなインパクトがを生じさせるのか? 重要な疑問は、私にとって一頭のサイと別のサイとはどのように密接に関連しているかである。一頭のサイを解決できたとしても、それは意図しない負の結果をもたらすことにならないか? あるいは他の多くの課題を同時に解決できるようになるのか、などである。
    気候変動はこのような大きな事例である。気候変動に取り組まなければ、公害に見舞われる。ますます凶暴化した台風に対応しなければならなくなる。また水資源枯渇に対応しなければならなくなる。私にとっても、気候変動への対応はそのほかの多くの課題に対応することに役立つと考える。それはもっと真剣に考えなければならない課題である。この灰色のサイはどうシステムと関連するのか? 前述したように最も危険な灰色のサイは突進してくるサイである。たくさんのサイが同時に突進してくるような場合は、よくよくそれを観察する必要がある。

>Top 6. Gray rhinos as a framework:

  • What about dealing with gray rhinos that are easiest to solve?
    Yes. Another question to ask is whether there are low-hanging fruit. How easy is it to solve this one? If I can solve this rhino with a relatively small amount of effort, can I do that and chalk up a victory?
    Or is it like Syria, where nobody can agree on what to do. Those are the really, really tough cases. I would encourage people to focus their energy on issues where they do have a good chance of solving them, where there’s a reasonable amount of agreement on how to solve the problem, and where solving this one problem will also help to solve others.
  • What’s also interesting is looking at the different stakeholders dealing with a gray rhino. In the financial crisis, you had people who took out the subprime loans. You had the crooked lenders. You had the policymakers. You had the people whose businesses depended on the people whose homes are now in default. Every one of them is going to define the gray rhino in a different way. Every one of them is going to be in a different stage of denial of diagnosing the real problem. Multiple strategies are needed if you have different stakeholders who are at different places in the process.
  • So gray rhinos give us a framework for addressing issues?
    It’s a framework. If people are looking for a silver bullet or a clearly outlined plan for how to solve their gray rhino, they’re not going to get it. What I present is a way to frame the right questions, a way to focus on what’s in front of you, and a way to frame the problem. Because every gray rhino is different. It’s impossible to come up with one magic pill that solves everything.
    By asking the right questions and doing a regular check-in with yourself, your management team, and your key advisers, you’re going to be so far ahead of everyone else.
  • Many of the biggest problems that we see on the corporate level, on the policy level, and on a personal level are things that were preventable but were ignored. Look at Wells Fargo. Look at the Volkswagen emission scandal. Look at the Takata airbag scandal.There were people in those companies who knew there was a problem. It was extremely obvious, but they didn’t do anything to fix it. Then it blew up into a huge disaster that was much costlier to the company than dealing with the problem in the first place. Once you start looking for gray rhinos, they are out there all over the place. Companies have been destroyed because they didn’t take the obvious actions. If you’re looking for the obvious, if you’re doing that reality check, you are already way ahead of the pack.

6. フレームワークとしての灰色のサイ:

  • 容易に解決できる灰色のサイとどう対処するか?
    もう一つの質問は、低い位置にある果物にどう対応するかということである。その解決は簡単だろうか? このようなサイを比較的楽に解決できたとすれば、それはして一つの勝利と記録できるだろうか?
  • またさらに興味深いことには、灰色のサイへの対応がステークホルダによって異なるということである。金融危機では、人簿とはサブプライムローンを購入していた。貸し手の意図も歪んでいたし、それとは別の政策決定者がいた。持家が破産したような人々に依存してビジネスをしている人々がいた。それぞれの人々は灰色のサイを異なる方法で定義していた。誰もが、現実の問題の診断を否定するという別々の段階になっていた。異なるステークホルダがいて各々が異なるプロセスにある場合には、多様な戦略が必要になる。
  • 灰色のサイは問題に対処する上でのフレームワークとなるか?
  • 企業レベル、政策レベル、あるいは個人的レベルであれ多くの問題は予防可能であるにも関わらず無視されてきたという点である。Wells Fargoの例、Volkswagenの排出ガス問題の例、あるいはタカタのエアバック問題の例を見てみよう。彼らは社内において問題の所在はわかっていた。それは全く明らかではあったが、彼らはその問題を解決しようとはしなかった。そうして巨大の災害を引き起こし、最初に対応していた問題よりもより遥かに費用のかかるような結果を招いてしまった。灰色のサイを探し始めたら、それらは至る所にいる。会社は、明確な行動を取らなかったが故に、会社は毀損してしまった。もしあなたが明確に問題を追求し、現実のチェックを行っていれば、あなたはすでに群を抜いていることになる。

>Top 7. Reference:

  • This article originally ran in the September 2017 issue of CFA Institute Magazine.
    If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor.
  • All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.Image credit: ©Getty Images/ Jenhung Huang
  • Tags: , , ,
  • Nathan Jaye is a keynote speaker, financial journalist, and founder of Immortal, a fashion company in San Francisco. Jaye's insights and writing on human intelligence, technology, and meaning have been shared on Business Insider, the American Monetary Association, American Mensa, New York Hedge Fund Roundtable, and 100 People You Should Know.

7. 本論文参考:


  • The metaphor of animals has the impact in persuation:
    • "It doen't matter if a cat is black or white so long as it catches mice." (Dèng Xiǎopíng)
    • Bull market vs. Bear market
    • Vulture fund
    • Cash cow
    • Sea turtle (=海龟hǎiguī (归guī, return)
    • Chicken or the Egg syndrome
    • The Ant and the Grasshopper (Aesop's Farbles)
    • Three monkeys; see no evil, hears no evil, and speaks no evil (Turning a blind eye)
    • dog days
    • birds and bees
  • 動物への比喩は説得にインパクトがある。
    • 黒猫白猫論
    • 海亀族
    • 上げ相場、下げ相場
    • ハゲタカファンド
    • 金のなる木
    • ニワトリか卵か
    • アリとキリギリス
    • 見ざる、聞かざる、言わざる
    • 最も暑い日々 (the Dog Star)
    • 子供に教える性の知識

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