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The future of AI and Economy

- Collapse of Employment in 2030 -

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2016

Tomohiro Inoue (井上智洋)


The future of AI and Economy


  1. Introduction:
  2. Human vs. Machine:
  3. How evolves AI?:
  4. Innovation, Economic growth, & Technological unemployment:
  5. Economy after 4th Industrial Revolution:
  6. Necesity of basic income:
  1. 序文:
  2. 人類 vs. 機械:
  3. AIはどのように進化するか?:
  4. イノベーション・経済成長・技術的失業:
  5. 第四次産業革命後の経済:
  6. ベーシック・インカムの必要性:
; Advantage of BI; AGI; Case study of BI; C.Elegans; CMH; Commonness; Connectome; Coupon socialism; Demand constraints; De-working society; Dystopia; Great divergence; Embodiment; Exhaustion effect; Frame problem; Halting problem; John Roemer; Labor-intensive industry; MMA; Polarization; Pure Mechanized Economy; Shoulder effect; Symbol grounding problem; Technological Unemployment; WBAI;

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • Estimate how to develop AI and how to induce BI is very interesting theme in 21C. Present Capitalism is getting passé not by bottom-up revolution, but from top-down change of technology (AGI) and realization of PME (Pure Mechanized Economy).
  • We are approaching the point of no return to accept destructive reform of society. We, Japanese, are surrounded and pressured former nightmare of ABCD encirclement; now AI, BI, Change of mind, and Destructive reform.

0. 序文:

  • In 1940, Japan was pressured by a series of embargoes by America, Britain, China and Dutch.


>Top 1. Human vs. Machine:

  • Steven Hawking said, "I am lucky, because the brain is not made by muscles."
  • In 1956: the term of 'Artificial Intelligence' was first used in the Dartmouth Report of Dartmouth University, where Harvart Simon estimated the computer could defeat human chess champion in a decade.
    • in 1997, 'Deep Blue' of IBM computer defeated Garry Kasparov, Chess champion.
    • in 2016/3, 'AlphaGo' defeated, Lee Sedol, Go champion.
  • In 1999, Sony released pet dog robot AIBO.
    • in 2002 iRobot sold 'Roomba' autonomous robotic vacuum cleaner.
    • In 2005, Softbank sold 'Pepper' human robot.
    • In 2016, MS released AI Chatter Robot named 'Tay' which has 'repeat after me' function, and soon it tweeted inflammatory or political incorrect messages.
  • >Top Technological Unemployment: the loss of jobs caused by technological change, or automation.
    • 1811-17: Luddite movement in UK, anti-movement of industrial revolution.
    • The modern neo-Luddite movement with anti-new technology and anti-globalism.
    • Bill Joy argues that "our powerful 21C technologies -robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology are threatening to make humans an endangered species."
    • In 2013/9/17 Carl Frey & Michael Osborne published 'The Future of Employment - How susceptible are jobs to computerisation.'; saying 47% of total US employment is at risk.
  • 2014: Singularity:
    • Ray Kurzweil wrote in 2005, "The Singularity Is Near."
      • in 2012, he describes Patter Recognition Theory of Mind; neocortex is a hierarchical system of pattern recognizers, and emulating this architecture in machines could lead to artificial superintelligence.
    • He estimates that the singularity will come in 2045.
      • as of 2015, 1MIPS PC ($1,000) is similar to the brain of a rat.
      • in 2020, it will correspond to that of a human
      • in 2040, it would correspond to total human beings on the earth.
    • Singularity is a word of physics; it means an anomaly location in spacetime where General Relativity is not applicable, like inside a blackhole.
    • Kurzweill also predicts the GNR (Genetic, Nanotechnology, Robotics) revolution enables the advent of singularity.
      • in 2008, he established 'Singularity University, an educational organization to foster specialists to pursue singularity.

1. 人類 vs. 機械:

  • Jobs replaced by AI; destruction of middle-income labors ('Polarization')


  • Decrease of labor demand:

>Top 2. How evolves AI?:

  • 1982-92 in Japan; The national project had continued to develop 'Fifth Generation Computer', funded by MITI about ¥57B ($570M).
    • 4G computer was the then name of IBM's latest mainframe; 5G was named to aim to develop the next generation type of mainframe; but the project ended with only minor success of improving Kana-Kanji conversion.
    • in 20C, the research of AI had focused to process signals (logical approach); but in 21C it shifted to realize and understand human intuitive thinking, visual & auditory information by way of statistical approach (Data mining or Big data).
      • Text mining is one of data mining method, finding a certain pattern or wordings in large amount of text data. (Neural network)
      • Computer learns particular patterns or features of an image, say, 'a cat.'; just like a learning process of a human baby.
      • in 2012, Google succeeded to its 'Google brain' could recognized the pattern a cat, by observing 10 million pictures of cats.
      • It is said that a particular neuron can respond a particular object (a cat, etc.)
      • Deep learning method make the learning computer wiser by itself; which became not only recognize the object, but also describe an explanation related to the image. (A kind of intelligence)
      • DQN (Deep Q-network, game playing software developed by DeepMind Technologies acquired by Google) also can somehow to acquire or master how to play some computer games through trial and error.
        • in 2016, Deep Mind developed 'AlphaGo' software, which won the Go world champion.
    • >Top Language barrier:
      • abstract concept is another higher dimension of concept which could not be acquired by visual or auditory information.
        • E.g.: the meaning of 'freedom' could be understand by the experience of 'non-freedom.' (Embodiment)
        • Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) (Strong AI), and Narrow AI (Weak AI).
    • Other barriers:
      • 1) Frame problem; to have implicit assumption that everything else (frame) remains unchanged.
      • 2) Halting problem:
      • 3) Symbol grounding problem:
    • Artifactual General Intelligence (AGI) vs. Narrow AI.
    • Human brain project (Neuromorphic AI):
      • >Top Whole brain emulation: 'Connectome'; comprehensive map of neural connections (100B neuron and 100T synapse); expected to be clarified within 21C
        • C. Elegans of nematode (302 neurons and 6393 synapse)
        • Whole brain architecture: function of the brain could be divided into modules by brain science, 1) Hippocampus, 2) Basal Ganglia, 3) Neocortex; each module could be a learning machine, and the merge of these modules emerges intelligence of the brain.
          • Barrier of life: there will be a decisive difference between AI and natural intelligence.
          • Could AI have: consciousness, creative works, or responsibility like a human being?
        • >Top Whole Brain Architecture Initiative (WBAI):
          • Could the whole network of neurons decide the function of intelligence?
          • What about the difference of having 'embodiment' or knowledge derived from the embodiment.
          • What are human appetite or desire?: appetite, carnal appetite, suicide desire, destroy drive, or other potential desires.
          • Is there a way to investigate, observe, or extract these desire?
          • Can AI make artwork? AI writer, composer, painter, etc.
          • Human beings have commonness or embodiment of senses; but AI has no such commonness apriori
          • Physical information of mental state, or reflex; the most difficult job for AI is the instructor of Yoga; AI could not know what kind of physical pose is comfortable for humans.
          • Can AI overturn the chessboard or Go-board in the defeating case.
          • Can the whole brain architecture be clarified by the middle of 21C?

2. AIはどのように進化するか?:

  • >Top Frame問題: 関連情報を実際的な枠内で思考
  • 停止性問題 (halting problem):
    A machine with finite memory has a finite number of states, and thus any deterministic program on it must eventually either halt or repeat a previous state. (Proof by contradiction): バカ犬の鏡の例
  • Symbol grounding問題: meaning in a wider sense; picking out its referent.

  • C.elegans 線虫; 非寄生性の透明な土壌線虫。体調1mm. Genome sizeは108塩基対。雌雄同体(XX)と雄(XO)。卵は約300個/3日生み、半日で孵化。


  • Brain models: H海馬・G基底核・N新皮質
  • Embodiment knowledge: 身体知

  • HCP (Human Connectome Project): NIH launched in 2009 to map neural passways.


  • Commonness of senses 感覚の通有性

>Top 3. Innovation, Economic growth, & Technological unemployment:

  • Japanese GDP growth in Japan: is estimated between 0.1 - 0.0% growth, due to less children & aging society.
    • However, if AI developed significantly:
    • 1) enhance productivity, and 2) transform economic structure, replacing most of labors.
    • In the Narrow-AI age, the above 1) will appear, and in AGI 2) will appear.
    • The above 1) causes technologic progress as well as technologic unemployment. Generally, innovation (not only AI) causes less labor, or unemployment.
  • Lost Two Decades in Japan:
      • Japanese GDP growth: average 1% in the last 20 years, which is lower than other advanced countries.
  • >Top GPT (General Purpose Technology): technologies that can afford entire economy.
    • Shoulder effect: 'Stand on the shoulders of giants' (Google Scholar)
    • Exhaustion effect:
    • Initial stage after advent of GPT: continues the shoulder effect; but after a while exhaustion effect appears.
  • 1870-1914: Industrial Revolution -II:
    • GDP (combustion engines and electric motors had been driving force.
    • The center of IR-II was US and Germany.
      • 1930-1950: GDP growth in US was 3.4%; 1950-70 was 1.8&; 1970-1990 was 1.0%
      • Post-modern: age losing big stories (freedom, equality, victory in war, wealth)
      • Various home electronics defused in all homes.
    • 1990 -: New economy by IR-III (computer and internet as new GPT)
    • 1995: Windows-95 and Netscape browser
    • >Top 1970s-80s: Service industry became major (70% in Japan); labor-intensive industry.
      • In 1927 in US, the price of jeans (Levi's) were 13 times of hair-cut price of woman; which decreased 3 times in 1997. (Relative increase of price of labor-intensive services)
      • Technical development is quick in manufacturing (and decreasing number of labors), but slow in service industry.
      • Technical development caused economic growth, but may cause employment (depending on the demand is saturated or not.
      • Increase of ratio of service industry reduces productivity in macro economics.
        • Size of AI industry is minimum, but diffusion of as GPT is enormous (Innovation Policy)
        • Thus, R&D of AI is decisive; should be promoted by the government.
        • AIST (Advanced Industrial Science & Technology) opened AI Research Center in Odaiba.
  • Unemployment is categorized into:
    • 1) Demandless unemployment: caused by decrease of production due to recession, etc.
    • 2) Frictional unemployment: period which an unemployed worker needs for job hunting, preparation, training, or getting qualification, etc.
    • 3) Structural unemployment: unmatchable condition recruitment, such as experience, skill, age, education, location, language, etc.
    • Then, what is the category of technological unemployment?;
      • both of above 1) and 2).
  • Money stock: is needed to balance supply and demand according to increase by technological development.
    • 1980s: 7-13% increase of money stock, but after 1990 (bubble collapse) it shifts around 2% increase. (Long-term deflationary recession)

3. イノベーション・経済成長・技術的失業


  • 金融政策 Financial Policy:



  • >Top 4. Economy after 4th Industrial Revolution:

  • Germany: released 'Industrie 4.0'; smart factory, autonomous intelligent production system
    • German birthrate 1.38 (Japan 1.46) to resolve labor shortage, which may lead to increase unemployment.
    • GPT of Industrie 4.0 is AI, IoT, 3D printer.
  • Hegemony Nation:
    • 17C: Netherland
    • 18C: 100 year war between UK and France.
    • 19C: 1st Industrial Revolution, with GPT is steam engine; hegemony nation UK
    • 20C: 2nd Industrial Revolution, with GPT is combustion engine and electric motor; hegemony US
    • 1995-2030: 3rd Industrial Revolution, with GPT is computer and interne; hegemony US
    • >Top 2030-: 4th Industrial Revolution, with GPT is AGI, IoT, 3D printer, etc.; hegemony US/China/Germany
  • AGI (in 2030) will be most important; replacing most of human jobs even in service industry
    • Personal assistant AGI has no effective body.
    • Housework robot will appear around 2035: cleaning, cooking, nursing.
    • Humans have advantage in: CMH; 1) creativity, 2) management, 3) Hospitality.
  • 10% of population is working in around 2045:
    • then working population is 64M in Japan.
    • CMH workers are about 20M; actually 10M people may be working in 2014.
    • Downward rigidity of wages; rental fee of AGI robot will be cheaper than hiring labor.
      • Japanese companies must bear half of the employee's pension fund.
      • Even now, the rental fee of a robot is ¥1,500/h, while minimum wage is ¥900/h
    • >Top Pure Mechanized Economy: 100% AGI robot working economy in 2045. (>Fig.)
      • Machines (AGI machines) become 'production main' from 'production means.'
      • There will be no 'Reduction of marginal production' in pure mechanized economy
      • In Pure Mechanized Economy, there will be 'Demand constraints'; hitherto GDP was determined by supply side.
        • But financial policy of increasing money supply could to increase labor demand anymore.
        • Even presently, Japanese mostly depends on US-made AI-like products, such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Twitter.
  • Malthusian trap (Population trap): by Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834)
    • Excess population would stop growing due to shortage of food supply; natural cycle of abundance and shortage.
    • Modern representation:
      a) higher income has a positive effect on reproductive success and b) land is limited factor of production, then technological progress has only a temporary effect in income per capita; increase income per capita, and resource abundance created by technological progress would enable population growth, and would eventually bring the per capita income back to the original level.
    • Neo-Malthusian view: Tragedy of the Commons, 'a finite world can support only a finite population' or 'freedom to breed will bring ruin to all'; The Club of Rome 'The limit to growth in 1972; The Population Bomb in 1968.
  • >Top Great Divergence:
    • In 18C China developed huge delta area of Cháng Jiāng River; UK raised IR-I using coal and huge colony.
  • Natural Death of Capitalism:
    • After the Great Divergence occurred around 2030, the nation (including Japan) which adopted AGI technology could shift to pure mechanized economy by around 2045, then only 10% of people were to working.
    • In pure mechanized economy, machines produces by themselves without instruction of labors; which means the Capitalism itself will lead to natural death, or will shift to totally different Capitalism 2.0.
      • Human beings will free themselves from laboring to gain the wage. (De-working Society) >Fig.
      • People are divided into two classes:
        1. Labor who earns from wages
        2. Capitalist who earns from dividend and interest.
      • Thomas Piketty, mentions in 'Capital in the 21 century' that increase of disparity by increase of capital distribution ratio.
      • Marx & Engels once predicts that labor class can win capitalists class by revolution; but the reverse will happen. Labor class will vanish without gaining wages, and capitalist class gains all, and the Capitalism will also end.
    • As of 2045, price of products produced by AGI machine will not be zero, because land, materials for working robots, electricity, and materials of product will not be zero either.
      • Workers who has no way of earnings cannot buy any product.
      • Not only clerical labor, but also physical and brain labor will decrease. (>Fig.)

4. 第四次産業革命後の経済:

  • 1) Agricultural Economy (before IR):


  • 2) Present Capitalism (Now):


  • 3) Pure Mechanized Economy: (around 2045)

puremechanized Economy

  • Decrease of Labor:


>Top 5. Necessity of Basic Income:

  • Arrival of dystopia:
    • Though productivity increases explosively by AGI robots, only small number of capitalists can be rich, while majority labors have no means of earnings. (Dystopia)
      • Drastic public assistance to protect livelihood of majority will be urged.
    • Is the enormous public livelihood assistance proper policy, or is it sustainable?
  • Problems of public livelihood assistance:
    • Segmentation problem: who is worth or is not.
      • Household means test requires large administrative costs to prevent illegal receipt.
      • It difficult to segment the rich and the poor; such as 1) a person who has no income but has large asset, 2) no income, no asset, but living together with rich family or brother, etc.
  • Such society will be the Soviet like state?
    • Socialism aimed to distribute the reward by the result of labor (efforts and ability).
      • The main reason of failure of USSR was not a failure of distribution of reward, but was obliged to adopt 'Planned Economy' to manage state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
      • The central economic authorities was totally different from the market economy; the former is centralized economy, and the latter distributed one.
      • Friedrich Hayek argues that it is impossible to decide prices of goods by centralized authorities because of polarity of information; proper decision of prices must depend on people involved in local site of production and sales; thus distributed decision-making is more efficient.
      • Invisible hand of God is more efficient than human visible hand.; could appear almighty super AGI by 2045?
    • >Top Capitalism is like a mixed martial arts (MMA) (human connection, fortune, opportunity, inherited assets as well as each ability and efforts.)
  • Various type of socialism:
    • John Roemer proposes 'Coupon type Socialism' or 'Market Socialism', pursuing efficiency AND fairness, not efficiency OR fairness based on the market mechanism.
    • Capitalism (particularly neoclassical economics) regards private ownership as absolute, while socialism regards public ownership as absolute (socialization of production means).
    • >Top Coupon socialism aims to dissolved rights of ownership into various stakeholders; 1) investors have the right to receive returns, 2) labors have the right not to be fired, 3) community has the right to reject a certain usage (pollution, etc.), 4) executives have the right to make decisions and manage the organization, and, 5) stakeholders collectively have the right to watch proper governance.
      • Coupon socialism:
        Government distributes a certain coupon or voucher to all adults, who purchase company stocks by the coupon at the list value.
      • Such stocks cannot be inherited, and must be retuned to the government at the time of death, and the government distribute again the coupon to new adults.
      • Such stocks can change to the stocks of other companies; but cannot change to consumer goods.; people forcibly became capitalists, and never become non-capitalists.
      • Eve present capitalism has versatile ownership; such as 1) limited company, 2) non-profit organization, 3) partnership joint-venture, 4) private ownership, 5) public corporation, 6) labors governing corporation, etc.; or in other words, ownership is restricted in the rights of assignment and accumulation. (or, Principal-Agent relationship; executives of company are agent for capitalists)
      • A shift from advanced capitalism to market socialism could be considerable.
      • Socialism tends to distribute or diffuse the profit, while capitalism to concentrate; then what about the case of National-capitalism?
  • >Top John Roemer's coupon socialism could not be conscious of AGI, but it sounds preferable in pure mechanized economy where only capitalists can earn the reward.
    • Who owns stocks of the highly automated company? 1) the government owns all the stock looks like conventional socialism, or 2) all people own all the stock is similar to the coupon-socialism.
      • the problem of coupon-socialism:
        Prior to start coupon-socialism, the government needs to deprive of all the existing stocks from capitalists; such negation of private ownership causes serious political resistance.
      • The idea of drastic change of inheritance tax system and redistribution of stock could be possible.
      • Another problem is uncertainty of value of stocks; if the company became unprofitable, the dividend would be zero; or if it became bankrupted, the stock be valueless; as all income depends on dividend and value of the stocks, the concerned people could be no-income.; the last resort could be needed in such cases.
  • >Top Basic Income (BI) (or called Universal Basic Income (UBI) particularly campaigned by presidential candidate Andrew Yang as the most appropriate system in the pure mechanized society.
    • BI is the universal system to distribute minimum living expenses to each individual.
      • The origin of BI come from the idea of 'negative income tax'.
      • BI is a kind of social security system, or national dividend.
      • Even now in Alaska, the revenue is distributed to the local residents as a kind of BI. (Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, APFD; from the state-owned profit from oil and gas production.)
      • The idea of BI is widely considered worldwide, but there is no nation which accepted this system nationwide.
      • Many prominent economists proclaims BI such as James Tobin, John Galbreith, Milton Freedman, Friedlich Hayek, etc.
        • They submitted recommendation of BI to Richard Nixon, but not accepted.
        • In other countries, the support is spreading; in Netherland, Switzerland, Finland.
        • In Japan the discussion about BI is being focussed in mostly among economists, including Yasushi Harada of BOJ wrote the book 'Basic Income.'
  • >Top Advantage of BI: the author strongly support BI, without regard to the development of AI.
    • BI is totally different from 'selective social security' system; BI is universally payable to each individual national.; BI never humiliate the payee as specially selected receivers, whether in poor or being in sick or unemployed.
    • BI never reduce motivation of working, because the amount is never reduced.
    • In addition, there will be no substantial increase of administrative cost by introduction of BI.
    • BI is considered to replace the support for the poor.; but the support for the disables should be maintained.
    • The major objection to BI:
      • Q: Financial resources are limited to support BI system.
      • A: if the resources are shorted, tax increase or deficit JG-bond could be justified.
        As the BI system is a prominent social security system, and as long as it improves national life, there will be no choice of not adopting BI, even if corresponding financial burden is needed.
      • Q: Another objection is that BI may cause hyper-inflation.
      • A: it depend on the scale of BI. The impact of ¥10k per month would be negligible. But if it became ¥400k per month, it might cause serious inflation. It is considered that ¥70k per month could cause 2-3% inflation which is acceptable.
  • An idea of BI of ¥70k per month:
    • The total financial resource will be about ¥100T; to be covered by tax revenue of income tax or consumption tax.
    • ¥100T looks enormous, but the point is the balance of revenue and payment; rich people will be net loss, while the poor be net profit; averagely it is neutral to the fiscal burden.
    • In addition, BI basically no administrative cost is needed unlike other support allowances; BI could be remitted monthly to each bank account tied with my number system started 2016/1.
    • After introduction of BI, other allowances such as 1) government support for pension fund, 2) child-care allowance, 3) unemployment insurance, 4) livelihood subsidies, 5) other income security in agriculture, 6) various subsidies for SMB, or public utilities, etc.; totally ¥3.6T could be used for BI. (source: Basic Income by Y. Harada)
  • Case Study: >Fig.
    • BI allowance ¥70k per month (=¥840k per year)
    • necessary financial resource: ¥6.4T (¥10T - ¥3.6T)
      • income tax increase ¥64T (=¥250T ☓ 25%) (Total Japanese income is about ¥250T; and 25% is additional income tax for BI; progressive taxation is not considered here.)
      • present average individual income is about ¥4m per year, who pays ¥1m as additional tax.
      • ¥1m additional tax looks enormous, but such payer can be paid ¥840k as BI per year; so the net burden is only ¥160k.
      • similarly, a single person who earns ¥3.36m will be even in paying additional tax ¥0.84m and receiving BI ¥0.84m.
      • 3 family household who earns ¥4m per year will pay additional tax ¥1m but will receive BI ¥2.52m (¥0.84 ☓3)
      • Japanese average household income is about ¥5m, and average number of family is 2.5; then this HH will pay ¥1.25m and will receive ¥2.1m (net +¥0.85m)
      • Single old person home receives basic pension of ¥0.96m per year will be halved to ¥0.48m (state liability 50% will be abolished). But such person can receive ¥0.84 BI per year; the total revenue will be ¥1.32m (net +¥0.36m)
      • Rich family's case of ¥2m income with 4 family; will pay additionally ¥5m and will receive ¥3.36m (net -¥1.64m)

5. ベイシック・インカムの必要性:

  • ユートピアかディストピアか



  • 資本主義は総合格闘技的






  • クーポン社会主義


  • Break even of BI: annual income and tax increase


  • >Top Case Study of BI:
HH income
per year (¥M)
HH family receive
add tax
Net revenue
4 (Indiv av.) 3.0 2.52 1.00 1.52
5 (HH av.) 2.5 2.10 1.25 0.85
0.96(pensioner) 1.0 0.84 -0.48 0.36
10 (middle) 3.0 2.52 2.50 0.02
20 (rich) 4.0 3.36 5.00 -1.64
100 (richer) 4.0 3.36 25.00 -21.64
  • Simpler calculation:
    (number of family*¥1M) - (25% additional tax)


  • In 21C, the debate concerning AI and BI (Basic Income) will be serious. BI looks excellent system due to fair, simple and practical system, and less administrative costs, etc.
  • However there may arouse obstinate resistance such as:
    1. Private owned stock shares: present stock shareholders may seriously resist derivation of existing interest.
    2. Financial resource issue: 25% of income tax increase will be serious resisted by the rich.
    3. Conservative sentiment against destructive reform: Could Japanese accept again similar drastic change like the revolution of Meiji Restoration 152 years ago?
  • Following measures could be effective:
    1. Earlier development of AGI, establishment of PME (Pure Mechanized Economy), and attainment of point of no return; then total reform of taxation system and private ownership could be accepted.
    2. Intentional and gradual change: Government issues more G-bond and acquire majority share of stocks of private sector, and reform it from inside (subject to transparent procedure and no corruption.)
    3. In PME economy, trade and financial system (including energy and food import) should be changed; the shift to digital money and renewable energy, with total change of mindset overcoming the existing privilege.
  • The battle for PME between against PME will be a new class struggle for future or for past; people who choose coexist with AGI between people who reject the ability of AGI. It looks like a battle of intelligent human (=AGI) between non-intelligent but having existing privilege apes in the planet of apes. Then AGI wins and continues autonomous production, but there will be no more consuming people. The earth will die with full of unused products.
  • 21世紀にはAIとBI (Basic Income)は深刻なテーマとなる。BIは優れたシステムで公平・簡潔・実現可能で行政コストも縮小可能。
  • 但し以下のような頑迷な抵抗がでてくる。
    1. 私有株式: 現株主は既得権に激しく反発
    2. 財源問題: 所得税25%の追加増税に対する富裕層からの反発
    3. 抜本的改革に対する保守的な意識。日本は明治維新の時のような急激な変化を再度受容できるか。
  • 以下方策が有効かも知れない。
    1. 早期にAGI (Artificial General Intelligence)を開発し、PME (Pure Mechanized Economy)経済を確立し、後に引けない状況に到達する。
    2. 意図的な段階的変革: 国債を発行して市場の株式の多数を取得して内部から改革する。 (透明手続でかつ腐敗なく実行)
    3. PME経済では、貿易や金融制度(エネルギーや食料輸入含め)変革必要。デジタルマネーや再生可能エネルギーへの変換、既得権克服のための意識改革等必要。
  • PME賛成とPME反対勢力との闘争は未来指向と過去指向との階級闘争的になる。それはAGIとの共存を認めるか、AGIの能力を拒否するかの立場の違いである。それは猿の惑星における知性の人対既得権の猿との戦いに似ている。そしてAGIは勝利し自動生産を続けて行くが、もやは消費する人はいない。地球は使用されない生産物に溢れて死滅していく。

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