Has the West Lost It?

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2018
#1910b

Kishore Mahbubani

19730u

Has the West Lost It?

西欧はそれを失ったのか？

0. A New Order of Things:
1. The Gift of Western Wisdom:
2. Suicidal Western Wars:
3. The blindness of Western Elites:
4. WThe Global Explosion of Travel:
5. Why Hsn't the West Notices?:
6. Western Hubris:
7. Strategic errors: Islam, Russia and Meddling in Weddling in World Affairs:
8. A New Strategy: Minimalist, Multilateral and Machiavellian:
9. The West on Autopilot: Europe and America Do Not Face the Same Challenges:
10. A More Dangerous World:
11. A Better World - for Americans and Europeans:
12. So - Has the West Lost It?:

0. 物事の新たな秩序:
1. 西欧の知恵からの贈り物:
2. 西欧の戦争は自殺行為:
3. 西欧のエリート層は盲目である:
4. 旅行者の世界規模での爆増:
5. なぜ西欧は気づかなかったのか?:
6. 西欧の傲慢:
7. 戦略ミス: イスラム、ロシア、その他の干渉:
8. 新たな戦略: ミニマリスト、他国対応、マキアベリスト:
9. 西欧の惰性: 欧米は同様の挑戦を直視しない:
10. さらに危険な世界:
11. 欧米にとってより良い世界:
12. では西欧はそれを失ったのか:

Résumé

Remarks

>Top 0. A New Order of Things:

• In the early 21C, history has turned a corder, perhaps the most significant corner humanity has ever turned.
  • AD1 - 1820: the two largest economies were China and India.
  • 1820 - Now: Europe take off, followed by America.
• It is important to understand the nature of our times.
  • Machiavelli: "he will be successful who directs his actions according to the spirit of the times."
  • a cycle of Western domination of the world is coming to a natural end.
• US CEO:
• On average in 1965 earned 20 times of worker's, but by 2013, it was 296 times.
• World now:
• In 2015, G7 contributed 21.5%, and E7 36.3%.
• the West has failed to produce a coherent and competitive global strategy to deal with the new situation.
• in 1950 75% of the world were in extreme poverty, but in 1981 still 44%; but in 2016, it has fallen below 10%.
• in 1800, 120M was literate, but now 6.3B

0. 物事の新たな秩序

• How China and India hae regained their natural share in GDP:

>Top 1. The Gift of Western Wisdom:

• the biggest gift the West gave the Rest was the power of reasoning.
  • Science and technology showed the power of empirical proof and constant verification.
  • solution of insoluble problems Asian had experienced, including floods, famines, pandemics and poverty.
  • individuals began to understand how reasoning could improve their personal sense of well-being.
  • Japan and Four Tiger were the first to absorb these idea.
• A person's destiny was determined at birth.
  • India carried it to the extreme with its cast system.
• The rulers of most Asia societies accepted that there were accountable to their people.
  • Deng Xioping focused all his energies on improving the living conditions of Chinese people.+
    Four Modernizations policy; agriculture, industry, defence and technology.
    
• Today African and Latin Americans are learning from Asian success stories.
• the second revolution is psychological;* the Rest can take control of their live and rationally produce better outcomes.
• In the last 30 years, we have carried more people over the the threshold of university education than we have in the previous 3,000 years.
• >Top Good governance will transform and uplift their societies.
• In China, India, and Indonesia, more than 90% of young people named technology as the factor that made them most hopeful for the future.
• Trust in government in all BRIICS was higher than OECD average (40%)
• The two suicidal world wars in 20C.; causing rejuvenation of non-Western societies.
  • the real intellectual liberation came more slowly towards the end of 20C.
  • Francis Fukuyama; 'The End of History?'.
• 2001, China's entry into WTO:
  • new workers from China and Eastern Europe led to declining real wages and a smaller share of labour in national output.
  • major reason why Drum and Brexit happed 15 yeras later.
    • working-class populations could feel directly what their elites couldn't.
  • The world of 2050 will bear little resemblance to the world of 1950, or even 2000.
    • in 1995/2015/2050 GDP share in ppp terms: G7 45.3%→31.5%→20%;
      while E7 22.6%→36.3%→50%
• the growth of middle classes:
• Hope begets happiness; more than half the world's population will enjoy middle-class riving standards by then.
• In 2009/2020/2030, the number 1.8B→3.2B→4.9B
• Happier humanity: for the majority of us, the past three decades (1990-2020) have been the best in human history.

1. 西欧の知恵からの贈り物:

• アジア：運命は生まれながらにして決まる
• >Top ３カ国首脳:
  • 中国: Xi Jinping
  • インド: Narendara Modi
  • インドネシア: Joko Widodo
• BRIICS: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, S-africa
• The World in 2050: GDP to 2050
• 

>Top 2. Suicidal Western Wars:

• Trust in government in all BRIICS countries was higher than OECD avearge (40%):
• Modern scienc and echnology were harnessed to create powerful weapons.
  • By the end of 19C, Western power had exploded into every part of the planet.
• Two suidal world wars:
• rejuvenation of non-Western societies using Western best practices.
• the real intellectual liberation that came more slowly.
• Moments of triumphalism: are inherently dangerous.
  • Franci Fukuyama's essay, "The End of History?"
• End of the Cold War:
• coincided with more fundamenta turn of human history; China and India - the two sleeping giants of Asia were waking up.
• In 1980s; Deng Xiaoping's Four Modernizations, reforming agriculture, industry, national defence and science & technology.
• In 1989/6, The Tiananmen Square events;
  • A more nervous Chinese leader would have shuttered China again. Deng didn't.
  • As a result, Chinese economic growth continued steadily in 1990s.
• >Top In 2001/12/11; China joined WTO
• A billion workers into the global trading syem wuld obviously result in massive creative destruction.
• One major reason why Trump and Brexit happened 15 years lator; their leaders had done nothing to explain to them what was happening.

2. 西欧の戦争は自殺行為:

• 2001/12/11: 中国のWTO加盟

>Top 3. The Blindness of Western Elites:

• The world of 2050 will bear little resemblance to the world of 1950 or even 2000.
  • In 1976, GDP of G7 was 45.3%, while of E7 was 22.6%
  • By 2015, GDP of G7 was 31.5%, while of E7 was 36.3%
  • By 2050, GDP of G7 will be 20%, while of E' will be 50% in ppp terms.
  • This monumental shift of power away from the West will be unconformable for Western minds.
• The growth of middle classes:
  • In 2009, 1.8B; by 2020 the number will hit 3.2B, and by 2030 which will hit 4.9B.
  • More than half the world population will enjoy middle class living standards by then.
• 1990-2020 have been the best in human history.
• We pay attention to events, not trends.
• Malaysia is one of the most successful countries in the developing world.
  • Its middle class grew by 6.5M from 1990 to 2008.
• how the appetite and capacity for functional governance has spread globally.

3. 西欧エリート層は盲目である:

>Top 4. The Global Explosion of Travel:

• By the rule of 72, if a country grows at 5%, a country's per capita income double every 14 years.
  • Thus, China, India, and Indonesia the standard of living will quadruple in the next 30 years.
• People vote with their feet:
  • They are voting with their feet to travel overseas.
  • In 1950, the world saw 25.3M international tourist
  • by 2015, the number had hit 1.16M; by 2030 it could hit 1.8B.
  • China: in 1980, zero Chinese tourists going overseas, but only officials.
    • By 2015 there were 100M Chinese tourists.
    • Chinese civilization is beginning to experience the most glorious period every in its history.
• Smart phones:
  • In 1990, almost zero mobile phones in India.
  • By 2015/12, there were almost a billion subscriptions.
  • By 2021 India will reach 810M smartphones subscription.
  • Many of life's little inconveniences disappear with the smartphone.
• the Information revolution:
  • education and information has become almost universalized.
  • Historians will look back that it was the most promising ear in human history.

4. 旅行者の世界規模での爆増:

>Top 5. Why Hasn't the West Notices?

• Hones self-reflection is never easy.
  • Fukuyama's essay 'The End of History?' did a lot of brain damage to the West.
• In 1950s-60s:
• US GDP grew at an average of 4.28%.
• Both US and EU intellectuals believed that having won the Cold War, the West could afford to relax and enjoy its good fortune.
• in 1990s, 'The Cold War had ended. There are only two superpowers left: UF and Europe.

5. なぜ西欧は気づかなかったのか?:

>Top 6. Western Hubris:

• In 1996/3, ASEM (Asia-Europe) Summit was held in Bangkok.
• In 1997, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea suffered in the Asian Financial Crisis; Europe once again lost interest in Asia.
• In 1990s and 2000s, coincided with a period of maximus insularity and self-congratulation.
• In 2014, India surpassed Japan the third largest GDP in PPP terms.
• In 2000, US GDP in nominal terms was 9 times that of China.
  • by 2010, US GD was just 2.5 times in nominal terms.
  • in 2014, China emerged as the world's largest GDP in PPP terms.

6. 西欧の傲慢:

>Top 7. Strategic Errors: Islam, Russia and Meddling in World Affairs:

• Blinded by hubris, the West made a series of strategic errors: intervening in Islamic countries, underestimating Islam as a religion and failing to address the root of the problem when it comes to terrorism.
• The West's 1st strategic error:
  In 2003/3, US invaded Iraq in revenge against the attack by Osama bin Laden.
  • By destroying Sadam and the Taliban, US gave Iranian power a major boost.
  • What made it worse was that it reinforced that conviction among 1.5B Muslims that the loss of Muslim lives did not matter to the West.
    • In 2015, Muslims made up 24.1% of the global population, which will be 30% in 2060.
• The West assumes that modernization will lead to less religiosity and more secularism.
  • In the Islamic world, the reverse is happening: economic development and education leading to greater religiosity.
• the West's 2nd strategic error:
  • the West expanded NATO into previous Warsaw Pact countries.
  • the humiliation of Russia led to an inevitable blowback.
  • 1783-1954; Crimea had been part of Russia; Putin felt that he simply had no choice but to take back Crimea.
• the West's 3rd strategic error:
• Color revolutions:
  • In 2000, Yugoslavia (Bulldozer)
  • In 2003, Georgia (Rose)
  • In 2005, Ukraine (Orange)
  • In 2005, Iraq (Purple)
  • In 2005, Kyrgyzstan (Tulip)
  • In 2010, Tunisia (Jasmine)
  • In 2011, Egypt (Lotus)
• the West rushed to support them; the export of democracy was an inherent good.
• The West must recognize that all of humanity is one; 7B people live in 193 separate cabins on the same boat.
• Donald Trump has pulled US backwards in the battle against climate change, China and India, have moved forward instead of blaming the Wet for creating the climate crisis.

7. 戦略的失敗; イスラム、ロシア、干渉等

>Top 8. A New Strategy: Minimalist, Multilateral and Machiavellian:

• New grand strategy can be describe as the 3M strategy; Minimalist, Multilateral and Machiavellian.
  • Minimalist: why less will be tetter, the Wet needs to achieve a new consensus on its role in world history.
    • Now, as Western power recedes, it is natural for the Rest to ask for new terms of engagement.
    • Islamic world feel that the West has become rigger-happy since the en of the Cold War.
      • Most of the countries recently bombed by the West have been Muslim countries; Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.
      • During the Col War, CIA instigated the creation of Al-Qaeda to fight the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
    • Post-Cold War, US should withdraw from its military engagements in Middle East.
    • ASEAN kept progressing as the West kept retreating from the region.
      • ASEAN did the same successfully in Myanmar; Myanmar switched course peacefully without Western military intervention.
    • EU; there is zero prospect of war between any two EU member states.
      • The West needs to understand the Rest better.
  • Multilateral leg:
    • Western minds accept the fact that the world has shrunk inexorably.
      • 2008-09: financial crisis
      • 2014-16: Ebola outbreak
      • 2015: Climate Change Summit in Paris
      • 2017: Terrorist attacks in leading capitals
    • >Top function of UNGA (General Assembly); to understand 88% of the world population thinks.
      • there's no point in cursing the mirror, we had better start by reforming ourselves.
      • US has tried to marginalize and ignore USGS.
      • First (1991) and second (2003) Iraq war; the son Bush went against the consensus of UN.
        • Should start mea culpa movement in US.
    • Multilateral institution and processes matter.
  • Machiavellian approach:
    • the West needs to learn more from Machiavelli and deploy more strategic cunning to protect its long-term interests. (Know thy self, by Sun Tzu)

8. 新戦略とは: ミニマリスト、多国間、マキアベリスト:

>Top 9. The West on Autopilot: Europe and America Do Not Face the Same Challenges:

• at the end of the Cold War, the West (12% of world population) could afford to impose demands on China (20%) and Islamic world (20%) and Africa (15%) and humiliated Russia.
  • Mao Zedong, a good student of Sun Tzu, succeeded in battle after battle against the Kuomingtang and invading Japan with primary enemy and setting aside the struggle against the second enemy.
    • American and European interests have diverged: for US, it is China; and for Europe it is the Islamic world.
    • It is n Europe's strategic interest to import the East Asian economic success stories into North Africa. Hence, Europe should work with China to build up North Africa.
  • Demographic explosion: there will be 4.5B people in Africa.
  • How will an ageing population of 450M Europeans deal with this demographic explosion?
• Europeans have not been cunning enough in protecting their own strategic interests in the Middle East and Russia.
• US vs. North Korea:
  • Korean peninsula would be a neutral country (like Austria)
  • All US troops and bases wold leave a reunified Korea.
  • Vietnam fiercely independent of China after American troops left, the same would happen to Korea.
• China will win in economic competition, because it has much larger population; 1.37B as opposed to 321M.
  • Yet US has attracted the best and brightest 7B people on Earth by may great universities and companies.
  • H1B visa is part of US's strategic answer to China's population advantage.

9. 西欧は惰性で動いている: 欧･米は同様の挑戦を直視しない。

>Top 10. A More Dangerous World:

• My call to the West to be cunning:
  • I am doing so because a naïve and ideological West is dangerous.
  • "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for the alternatives."
  • Democracies have demonstrated long-term resilience.
• the West is wrong in believing that democracy is a necessary condition for economic success.
• If it were, China could not and should not have succeeded. But it has.
• Turkey, Erdoǧan, one man; how much of Turkish anger was a result to being insulted by Europe for decades?
• Turkey applied for EU in 1987 and never got in.; Austria, Cyprus, Malta, Sweden, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Czech republic, Slovenia and Croatia applied later and did.
• It wold have been wiser to keep Turks out and admit Turkey into the EU (with restrictions on free movement of labor)
• It was a folly for EU to launch the Common agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1962; which enriched a few European farmers.
• World GDP in 1950, US-Europe (UK, France, Germany) share was 43%, while by 2050 it will have shrunk to 24%.
• Population in 1950, US-Europe share was 22%, and Africa 9%, while by 2050 Europe 7% and Africa 39%.
• >Top UNSC
• In 2045, on the 100th anniversary of UNSC if UK and France remain permanent members and India is out, the UNSC would have lost all its credibility.
  • Singapore is a small, predominantly Chinese state surrounded by two large Muslim state; Muslim states.
  • Middle East region with less Western meddling will ultimately be a predominantly peaceful region.
• The best way to strengthen the credibility of the UNSC is for UK (67M) to give up its seat to India (135M), for France (65M) to share its seat with the EU (512M).
  • This is a plain common sense for long-term Eurpean interests.
• Some strategic common sense would encourage America to be more prudent than expansionary in its military spending.

10. さらに危険な世界:

• 国連安全保障委員会の権威回復

   

>Top 11. A Better World - for Americans and Europeans:

• Now it is in their strategic interest to be prudent and noninterventionist.
  • the West was the first civilization to brake out of the clutches of superstition and ignorance that dominated the feudal eras of human history.
  • Millennials in emerging markets generally expect to be both financially (62%) and emotionally (62%) better off than their parents.
    • matured markets; only 36% of millennials predict they will be financially better off than their parents and 31% say they'll be happier.
    • Emerging and developing nations are more optimistic that the next generation will have a higher standard of living.
    • When the global middle-class population explodes from 1,8B in 2009 to 4.9B in 2030.
• The Western elites need to regain their intellectual confidence and explain again to the masses how it works.
  • One glaring statistic: 63% of Americans don't have enough savings to cover $500 emergency.
• Trump was not wrong when he advocate the goal of 'America First'.
  • If he cuts off America from global trace flows, he will deliver an 'America last'.

11. 欧米にとってより良い世界:

>Top 12. So - Has the West Lost It?

• The era of Western domination is coming to an end.
  • It is not inevitable that China will lead the world, even thought it is inevitable that Chill will have the worlds's largest economy.
  • It is inevitable that the world will face a troubled future if the West can't shake its interventionist impulses, refused to recognize its new position, or decides to become isolationist and protectionist.
• This is why this book is intended ultimately, as a gift to the West.
  • It reminds the West how much it has done to elevate the human condition higher than ever before.
• A simple dose of Machiavelli is what we need to save the West and the Rest. Otherwise, the West really has lost it.

12. では西欧はそれを失ったのか?

Comment

• The author's insistence is severe and practical, though his expressions are polite and carefully considered; which sounds really Machiavellian.

• 著者の主張は、その表現は丁寧で熟慮されたものだが、厳しくかつ現実的である。正にマキアベリ的か。