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Financial World War

- WWIII has already begun -

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2015
#: 1810b

Sakai Tanaka (田中宇)


Financial World War


  1. Introduction:
  2. US pseudo economic boom:
  3. Symptom of US dollar collapse:
  4. Change of the hegemony:
  5. Pax Britanica:
  6. Mulitipolarized political history:
  7. Leverage-based financial revolution:
  8. Mechanism of financial hegemony:
  9. World War for hegemony:
  10. China-Russia alliance:
  11. Hegemonical strategy of BRICS:
  12. Japanese docile subservience to US:
  13. New phase of the financial world war:
  14. Postscript:
  1. 序:
  2. 米国虚像の好景気:
  3. ドル崩壊の兆候:
  4. 覇権の変動:
  5. パックス・ブリタニカ:
  6. 多極化の政治史 (1914〜):
  7. レバレッジ型金融革命:
  8. 金融覇権の仕組み:
  9. 覇権を巡る世界大戦:
  10. 中国と手を組むロシア:
  11. BRICSの覇権戦略:
  12. 対米従属に固執する日本:
  13. 金融世界大戦の新局面:
  14. あとがき:

; 2014/10; America first; AIIB; Ashkenazi; Atlantic Charter; Bail-in/Bail-out; Basel-Ⅲ; Brexit; CDS; CFR; Chatham House; CICA; CME; Cov-light; Conspiracy theory; CUP; Dagong; Dodd-Frank Act; EAEU; Fiat money; Financial Globalization; Financial weapon; FSB; G20; Globex; Gold ETF; Gold carry trade; GPIF; Great moderation; HFT; League of Nations; London Gold Fix; Macro prudence; Market Fundamentalism; MBS; Military-Industrial complex; MMF; Money glut; Monroe declaration; Moody's Corp.; Nation state NDB; New Cold War; Nixon doctrine; Non-dollar settlement; OBOR; Gas pipeline; Pax Romana; PPT; Pyramid scheme; QE; SCO; Sephardi; Shadow banking; SIV; Tax Haven; Tobin tax; Too big too fail; Tripartite Pact; Triple Entente; TTIP; Twin deficit; VIX;


>Top 0. Introduction:

  • Most of the world financial events occurs to prevent another financial crisis after 2008 Lehmann Shock.
  • The major measures are US QE policy, leading similar QE policies of EU and Japan.
  • The financial debt market is getting more important, with its essence of high risk and high return.

0. 要旨:

  • QE: quantitative easing 資金の量的緩和
  • リーマンショック再発防止
  • QE対策

>Top 1. US pseudo economic boom:

  • 2014/10: US FRB terminated to buy its QE (Quantitative Easing) policy:
    • BOJ strengthened to continue Japanese QE policy.
    • FRB accumulated QE as much as $4.3T (around $1.0T before 2018)
      • If the present QE (=QE3) was terminated, FRB can continute it (around $2.6T) by its principle and interest of the QE3.
    • US S&P500 companies purchase their own shares (30%), while invest in core business (40%); the former was only 15% as of 2002.
    • Collapse of US G-bond (as the source of US power) would be more serious than that of the stock market.
      • Chinese GDP (ppp) overtook US in 2014; Japanese GDP (ppp) became 4th after India.
      • >Top Money glut situation; US economy continues to depend QE to fill the gap of the budget deficit.
  • Alan Greenspan (1926-; Chair of FRB 1987-2006): chaired FRB after the Plaza Accord (1985) just before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (2008) (called a maestro of US economy.)
    • 2014/10/29: he proclaimed that QE3 was a failure at CFR (Council on Foreign Relations), which expanded disparity of wealth but not increase of demand; the asset of FRB might collapse by hyper inflation due to the raise of interest; commenting that gold is getting measurably stronger.
      • Many financial experts have insisted that QE sustained US economic boom including high level of stock prices.
      • The interest rate of US government bond is considered as canary in the coal mine; typically '10-year G-bond'.
    • the Plaza Accord is a global agreement supporting system US dollar weakened by US hegemony, particularly by Japan and Germany.
    • >Top Credit bond financial system is called a 'shadow banking system'.; the scale became $75T as of 2013 (120% of world GDP)
      • A. Greenspan recognized the timing of collapse of US financial hegemony is approaching.
      • saying, "gold is a premier currency. Not fiat currency, including US$, can match it."
    • Billionaire increased 1646 after the Lehman collapse.; the total assets of top 85 billionaire is almost equal to the half of bottom of the pyramid.
      • mostly increased their assets by stock option as well as stock buy-back.
  • Henry Kissinger (1923-); a maestro of US policy;
    • he arranged Nixon's visit to China in 1972, blazing end of the cold war and multipolar world.
  • >Top Cov-light (covenant-light) loan agreement: typically subprime mortgages since 2007.
    • 40% of private loans ($7.6B) are cov-light in 2012.
    • FRB purchased lots of CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) to rescue AIG. (Maiden Lane); strengthening various restrictions to avoid credit crunch.
    • FRB supports buying of MBS (Mortgage-backed securities); a kind of ABS (Asset -backed securities), as means of QE3.
    • MBS:
      • Banks need not to liquidate subprime loans; because FRB buys MBSs.
      • MBS transactions are done among FRB, JP Morgan, Goldman Sacks, BOA, City Bank, with insufficient demand of private sectors.
      • Bond market is implicit; there will be no sharp decline of the market, but freeze, collapse and extinct of the the bond market.
      • 90% of MBS is guaranteed by US-gov.
      • MBS's are securitized housing loans by US debtors.
      • The Blackstone Group L.P. (founded in 1985): actively purchased 26,000 houses in nine states of US.
      • Colony Capital (now Colony Northstar, founded in 1990); purchased 10,000 houses.
        • 48% of auction properties are bought by such investors.
        • US-gov. and FRB welcome to maintain such bond market.
        • Rental houses need to be diligently repaired to acquire housing borrowers.
  • >Top US G-bond the world largest pyramid scheme:
    • US G-bond; Japanese G-bond; Asian emerging market.
      • Chinese gov. seems to make short-term money market, international tender, and bank management leave as it is.
      • Synthetic CDO is difficult to sell in the market.
      • Credit rating agencies (S&P, etc.) raised rating of US G-bond from negative to stable (AAA): Jp G-bond (A negative)
        • The market showed declining, even US G-bond got AAA rating from AA+.

1. 米国虚像の好景気:

  • Quantitative Easing: 量的緩和
  • shadow banking system: 影の銀行システム
  • stock-buy back: 自社株買い
  • fiat money: 幽霊通過
  • LBO (Leveraged buyout)
  • Cov-light (covenant-light); 担保の弱い債権契約
  • credit crunch: 信用収縮
  • Ponzi scheme, or Pyramid scheme: ネズミ講
  • グリーンスパン:
    • FRB議長19年間
    • 金融分野のマエストロ
    • 債券市場(影の銀行)

  • キッシンジャー:
    • 米国政策・国際政治のマエストロ
    • 米中国交回復






  • Cov-light担保
    • 不明瞭な債券市場
    • MRBの暴落→民事裁判→米国政府非常事態




  • 巨大なネズミ講型











>Top 2. Symptom of US Dollar Collapse:

  • Symptoms of US$ collapse:
    • FRB had decreased QE3 since beginning of 2014, while expanding bubble situation (support buying US G-bond as a back-policy of QE).
    • Janet Yellen (chair 2014-18); bubble preventing is not a function of FRB; seems to prolong the bubble burst.
    • FRB supports Belgium to buy US$ G-bond in the backroom deal.
      • EU lowered its interest rate until minus level.
      • Russia and China are getting nervous the next burst of bubble economy.
      • No serious economic news are disclosed, probably due to more strict information control.
    • >Top High risk bonds are strongly sold, because companies in danger of going bankrupt can be easily financed.
      • The annual sales of CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligation) attained $97B, but now approaching $100B as of 2014/5.
      • VIX Index (Volatility Index); CBOE calculates volatility of option transactions of S&P500 since 1993.
        • VIX shows usually 10-20; but in the cases of world financial crisis (2008/10) 89.5, Greek default risk 46.9 (2011/10).
        • VIX index shows risk feeling paralysis of the market. (Great Moderation)
      • US financial institutions illegally operate transactions inducing 1) expensive bond, 2) cheaper gold, and 3) expensive US$. (silver coins continues to be sold out.)
    • >Top HFT (High frequency trading); trading by computers in mil seconds.; prevailing in stock, bond and exchange market.

  • Deterioration of US real economy:
    • 83% of new university graduates could not be employed.
    • Only financial industry is exceptional.
    • US average income showed down 7% in 7 years.
    • US consumption decreases due to expansion of disparity and downfall of middle class income; 70% of US economy depend on consumption; causing more window-dressing of the economy.
      • Disparity of income expands; 1% expensive houses are sold 21% more year over year, while 99% average houses down 7.6%.
      • Tiffany or Luis Vuitton sell 10% more, while Wall Mart or Sears 5-7% less.
      • Pay Cable TV subscribers are decreasing.
      • Electricity consumption had shown slight increase during 1990s until around 2006; but now shows downtrend.; electricity consumption could be long-term economic index. (Chinese economy tends to be measured by the electricity consumption.)
      • Slump of commercial malls continues.
      • >Top Trend of non-dollar settlement continues; oil transaction of Russia and China consider the payment in RMB or Singapore Dollar.
        • Payment for Iranian oil transaction; pursues either partner country currency or gold metal.
      • US shale oil & gas industry: Permian Basin in Texas is most promising.
        • ME Low price of crude oil vs. US oil shale production cost
        • Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Russia are trying to continue lower crude oil.
          • around $80/bbl level competition continues.
          • short-term (by OPEC+Russia) or prolonged competition (by US).
        • Shale bond is being big concern of US financial industry; possibly adopting QE4 policy.
      • >Top Mechanism of CDS (Credit Default Swap)
      • ECB: support buying of private bond and G-bond from 2014.; ECB buys 20% and 12% of the remained 80% bought by each central bank in EU.
        • US €84B; BOJ €50.B; ECB €12B, /mo level.
        • Lip service strategy of possibility of QE4, raise of interest, or unemployment rate.

2. ドル崩壊の兆候:

  • support buying: 買い支え
  • FRB:
    • QE3の失敗?
    • Yellen議長
    • 米国国債買い支え
    • VIX指標動向
    • 高頻度取引 (HFT)
  • Pyramid scheme:
  • pyramidscheme

  • 米国実体経済の劣化:
    • 雇用状況
    • 財政赤字
    • 消費低迷: 経済格差拡大
    • 非ドル決済拡大


  • 米国オイルシェール:
    Permian basin (Midland, Tx)のみ


  • CDSのメカニズム:
    • 債券破綻保険
    • 隠れ多極主義
    • 各政府による債券買い支え

>Top 3. Change of the hegemony:

  • Life span of world currency or supernational hard currency (pseud-currency?):
    continues about 40 years
    • 17C-18C: use of silver Spanish dollar
    • 19-WWI (20C): Gold standard
    • 19C-1944: UK pound sterling:
    • 1944/7-1971/8 (27): Bretton Wood Agreement (fixed exchange rate) until Nixon shock (floating exchange rate); US$35=1oz=31.1g
    • 2008-09: Lehmann shock (08) and G20 summit (09/4)
  • Logic of Capital (Capitalism) vs. Logic of Imperial (US-UK Imperialism)
    • Wars provoked by imperialism:
      • 1941-1945: WWII curbing Germany & Japan.
      • 1950-1953: Korean war:
      • 1946-1953 & 1961-1975: Vietnam war:
      • 1948-1973: Arab-Israel conflicts
      • 1973 & 1979: Oil shock
      • 1979: Iran Islamic revolution
      • 1980- 1988: Iran-Iraq war
      • 1990-1991: Gulf war
      • 2001- : War on terrorism
      • 2003-2010: Iraq war
    • >Top UK hegemony - US Military-Industrial Complex:
      • Technology propagation form UK to worldwide:
      • Logic of Imperiasm: to utilize or exploit other countires.
      • Logic of Capital: to maximize its capital earnings
      • Internal conflict between major imperialists vs. major capitalists
        • Imperialist: advocate of nation first policy
        • Capitalis: global-oriented investor
      • Jewish global network; maintained since in Spain (16C), Netherland (17C), UK (18C)
        • Typical global or unbelonging capitalist: European Rothschild (Jewish) vs. Rockefeller
        • H. Kissinger, a large policy clerk of Rockefeller, giving frequent advices for China.

3. 覇権の変動:

  • Military-Industrial Complex: 軍産複合体
  • 基軸通貨の寿命は約40年
  • 覇権国の推移


  • 資本の論理 vs. 帝国の論理
  • 多極主義 vs. 米英中心主義
    • 第一次世界大戦以降の




  • 英国の覇権→米国軍産複合体
  • ユダヤ人の国際ネットワーク
  • Rothschild vs. Rockefeller

>Top 4. Pax Britanica:

  • Hegemony: <G. hēgemōn, leader
    • geopolitical and cultural predominance of one country over others.
    • material asymmetry, enough military power, access to resources, capital and markets, competitive advantages in production, generation ideology, functionally differentiated from other states, expected to provide security or financial stability.
    • >Top History of hegemony:
      • 27BC-180: Pax Romana (from Augustus until 5 good emperors)
    • Hegemony vs. Dominance: the boundary is ambiguous or transitional.
      • Puppet government, or voluntary subordination.
  • Multipolarization:
    • is derived from logic of the capital; to make multi polar system, not only US-UK, but also China, Russia, and India.
    • Europe and Japan have already economically matured, and have no room for growth.
    • Multipolarization places selfishness above patriotism.
  • >Top The First World Hegemony: Pax Britanica:
    • 1815 (After Napoleonic War; Waterloo) - 1914 WWI
    • 1780s - : Industrial Revolution
      • 1769: James Watt invented 'steam engine'.
      • 1771: Richard Arkwright invented 'water frame'.
      • Political & cultural affect in Europe;
        • Spain, France, Netherlands, Russian had already hegemony in Europe.
        • Netherlands (1851, independent from Spain) retained port of call at: Java, Taiwan, Nagasaki, New Amsterdam.
        • Netherlands & UK: established East India Co.; UK East Indica Co.'s dividend was average 18% in 200 years.
        • Trade with East Asia: in 1600s 3/4 trade with Asia was land route via Arabia; but in 1700
      • Invaded militarily and colonized China (1840) and Africa (1880-1910)
    • 1588: UK defeated Spanish Invincible Armada.
      • 1651: US enacted Navigation Act; downfall of Middle East began; UK shifted protectionism.
      • Netherlands fought war with UK and was defeated, losing interest in US.
    • UK's basic strategy; how to keep balance of power; maintaining:
      • Interest of UK marine trade
      • Hegemony in Europe, and control of suzerainty in other areas.
      • UK adopted balance of power strategy as a turning point of the French Revolution.
        • institutional monarchy vs. violent revolution & dictator Napoleon
        • expansion of the nation-state with full of patriotism in Europe
        • Napoleon France conquered Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Poland.
        • Anti-France Alliance of UK, Prussia, Austria, and Russia.
        • 1815 Congress of Vienna; Metternich presided but actually UK induced the congress and got a fisherman's interest (a profit from confused situation).
          • Switzerland became a permanent neutral country.
          • Germany and Italy became as nation-states.
          • Bourbon dynasty was revived in France (Louis XVⅢ) as a de facto puppet government of UK.; play a good rival of UK.
          • The balance of power in European continent became a benefit for UK.
      • >Top French Revolution: eventually promoted to make more nation-states, which are stronger in war establishing taxpaying system based of each patriotism; and finally produce more consumers.
        • Education and mass communication are getting important to educate or brainwash their nations as loyal and co-fantasic taxpayers and soldiers.
        • Industrial revolution occurred concurrently such revolution. Most of the jobs changed from agriculture to manufacture, with political reforms and emancipation of serfs.
        • Also, transportational revolution shortened market and resources.
    • >Top Jewish global network; particularly Sephardi Jews; some of which functioned as Court Jews, as traders, financiers, and accountants.
      • Ashkenazi Jews lived in Germany and East Europe mostly worked as serfs.
      • Jews are sometimes persecuted as an descendants of the betrayer of Christ; but having rather sympathetic relations with Protestant.
        • Netherlands is an alliance nation of Protestant and Jews.
        • Rothschild in UK function as key positions in UK, having global network in Europe, contributing strengthening Pax Britanica; pursuing more business and more finance than doing wars.
        • >Top Typical Secret Intelligence Service (SIS): MI6 of UK, CIA of US, Mossad of Israel. ; KGB of USSR (there was German Town in Moscow until 18C, mostly involved in European trade, also there are many Jewish in St. Petersburg)
        • The SIS's activity is not only political conspiracy, but financial one. (Conspiracy theory)
        • In 18C, 60% of lawyers and physicists in Vienna were Jewish.
        • Germany (since Prussia) depends its finance and knowledge industry on Jewish.
        • Also there are many Jewish revolutionists and theorists.
        • Social reforms in Russian, Germany and Italy occurred to catch up the advanced nation-states.
  • Center movement from London to New York:
    • 1776 Independence of US was a kind of experiment of international politics.; whether to remain as a market of UK, or become an industrial nation.
      • The new center was Boston, then shifted to NY (formerly New Amsterdam, where Jewish hub of activities.
      • Affinity continued between Protestant in Boston and Jewish in NY; both emphasized reading of the Bible.
      • >Top 1822 Monroe declaration (doctrine); the New World is no longer subject to colonization by Europe. (to avoid European hegemony in South hemisphere, not only from Spain and France, but also from UK)
      • 1811-25: supported Independence war by Simón Bolívar of Colombia and José de San Martín of Argentine; received Monroe's words with sincerest gratitude, though US wielded little power at the time, stood alone against the Holy Alliance (1815 by Russia, and Prussia, Austria)
      • Portugal was not occupied by Napoleon; Brazil was not divided.
      • Jewish expelled from Spain financially supported Columbus or other expeditions and many Jewish emigrated to Central and South America, promoting trade and economics with elite of Spanish Creole.
      • Pursue of hegemony and Jewish global network is closely related; including Israel or Neoconservatives.

4. パックス・ブリタニカ

  • Port of call: 寄港地
  • interest of a fisherman:
  • co-fantasy: 共同幻想
  • emancipation of serfs:
  • Sphardi Jews:
    スペイン系ユダヤ (中東系)
  • Ashkenazi:
    ドイツ系ユダヤ (白系)
  • Court Jew: 宮廷ユダヤ
  • 覇権の定義
  • 覇権 (武力無) vs. 支配 (武力有)
  • 米(世界覇権国)と
  • 諜報活動(更にインテリによる文筆活動?)






  • 英国の覇権体制:
  • 均衡戦略




  • ユダヤ人ネットワーク (弁護士会計士・Consultant・医師・学者)



  • フランス革命
  • 対ナポレオン
  • 国民国家設立
  • 米国独立
  • ユダヤ式諜報活動
  • Sephardi/Ahkenazi: Cf: Sunni/Shiah









  • 中心移動: Lodon→NY
  • ボストンの新教徒と
    • モンロー宣言
    • 中南米の独立;
      Simón Bolívar





>Top 5. Multipolarized political history:

  • 1919 League of Nations: the first International organization established as a result of Paris Peace Conference after WWI; promoted by Woodrow Wilson (issued Fourteen Points).
    • US tried to dismantle UK hegemony and transfer it into the League, but UK took over its operation.
    • Then Wilson induced US to decide not to join the League.
  • In WWII, UK needs to depend on US military power, and urged US to enter the war.; also agreed to make United Nations after the war, accepting to make it with governing multipolar Security Council.
    • But just after WWII, UK emphasized the iron curtain consolidating cold war situation.
  • Industrialization:
    • In the world, there are the countries making better goods by manufacturing skills than UK who first originated the industrial revolution; such as Germany, Japan, and US.
    • It is natural for the logic of capital to expand the market covering such emerging countries after UK.
    • >Top But UK empire provoked WWI to confine Germany (by the Triple Entente of UK, France, and Russia) as well as to make Russia leave from the front line of WWI.
    • Some Jewish capitalists (Jacob Henry Schiff, work at Rothchild bank) in NY financially supported the Russian Revolution.; A Jewish revolutionist Lev Trotsky once lived in NY.
    • In 1924, US also supported the first United Front between Chinese Communist Party and Nationalist Party to proceed anti-Japanese War.
    • Sūn Wén, founder of CNP (Guómíngdǎng) received support from Chinese-American and US Churches.
  • >Top WWII:
    • In 1933 the insurrection of German government by Nazi deepened confrontation between US-UK-France vs. German-Italy-Japan; this year US decided diplomatic recognition with USSR.
      • In 1938: Germany annexed Austria, and in 1939 German-Soviet non-aggression treaty.
      • In 1940: Germany invaded Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, France and became about to occupy the whole Europe.
      • 1940/9; German, Italy, and Japan signed the Tripartite Pact (Berlin Pact).
    • 1941/6/22:
      • Barbarossa operation: Germany blitzed against USSR.
    • >Top 1941/8/9-12: Atlantic Charter:
      • became joint Declaration on 1942/1/1 by 4 (US/UK/USSR/China)+22 countries+19 communication of adherence.; (though US was not officially enter the war until 4 months later.)
        • no territorial changes, self-determination, restoration of self-government, reduction of trade restricts, global cooperation, freedom from fear and want, freedom of the seas, abandonment of use of force, as well as disarmament of aggressor nations.
        • engaged in a common struggle, and being convinced complete victory over Hitlerism.
        • employ full resources, military or economic against the Tripartite Pact and its adherents.
        • not to make separate armistice or peace with the enemies.
      • US and UK agreed the basic regime after WWII, became the basic of modern UN, and confirmed the top conference held at Tehran (1943/11) and Yalta (1945/2).
      • 1946/1: Declaration of United Nations: US, UK, USSR, China and other allied nations.
      • the essence of this declaration was succeeded to UN.
    • 1946/3: Start of the Cold War:
      • Winston Churchill gave the iron curtain speech on Mar.5 1946.; "From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe."
      • Strategy of the Cold War was proceeded by the common interest of UK and US (Military Industrial complex).
      • 1963/11/22 Assassination of John F. Kennedy; there is a persistent conspiracy theory about this assassination done by the Military Industrial complex.
    • >Top CFR (Council on Foreign Relations):
      • 1921; Nonpartisan think tank organization promoted by Rochfeller.
      • 1920; Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), non-profit organisain in London
    • 1960s-70s: UK economic collapse.
      • Israel (succeeding UK) formed Military Industrial Israeli complex, affected US media, and unseated Nixon by Watergate scandal.
      • In 1980s, Reagan played hidden multipolarist to end the cold war with Gorbachev, concurrently proposed UK to earn by financial deregulation.
      • In 1993, US persuaded Israel to promote peace of the Middle East with Ysir Arafat of PLO.
    • >Top Financial Globalization:
      • Global free market was the dearest wish of NY capitalists since 19C.
      • Globalization occurs when capitalists take the hegemony.; conversely the empires hold hegemony by separating friend or foe.
  • >Top Richard Nixon (1969-73): 37th US president.
    • 1969/7: Nixon doctrine, requiring military independence. (assist but not undertake all the defence; mostly by military technical support, intelligence, nuclear umbrella, etc.
      • 1971 Return of Okinawa to Japan.
      • 1973/79 Oil shock and surge of oil price: Oil major accepted this change.
    • 1971/8: Suspension of US$ into gold (Nixon shock)
      • due to credit anxiety of US$; twin deficit (budget and current account)
      • from Bretton Woods Agreement (1944-71), Smithonian Agreement ±2% (1971-73), then floating exchange system, and recently Plaza Agreement (1985)
        • John Connary; "The dollar is our currency, but your problem."
        • Reagan (1981-89); birth of EU after the Cold War.
        • Historically UK-France had confined German.
        • the birth of EU means permanent reconciliation of Germany and France.
        • EU may cause split UK and Scotland. (Brexit in 2016 referendum)
        • Brexit may cause real collapse of Brisith hegemony.
    • 1972/2: Visit to China and promotion of SALT
    • 1973/1: Paris Peace Accord to end the Vietnam war.; 1975/4 North Vietnam unified the whole Vietnam.
      • 1985 ”A strong start in a difficult decade”, Melvin Laird, saying that multipolar system (US/USSR/China/Japan/Europe) is more stable than bipolar system (US/USSR)under the deteriorated military & economy of US.
      • such multipolar system is preferable for capitalist to expand the market worldwide for long-long-term.
    • 1997: PNAC (Project for the New American Century): US non-profit conservative think tank; in shaping the foreign policy of Bush administration.
      • US sent ground forces into Iraq, being bogged down in the field, causing many terrorists' attacks.
    • >Top 1993/11/1 Maastricht Treaty: 1993/1/1 EU formally established. 2002 €; 28 states; 500M population; 4.38M sq.km
      Birth of EU: the alliance of Germany and France invalidate UK's long strategy to confine Germany; conversely UK itself may cause internal breakdown of Scotland and English.
      • UK's choice; to be absorbed within EU where Germany governs, or be isolated outside EU.
      • US's choice; to revive US-UK hegemony, or to adopt isolationism within American continent ("America first!"); the latter case will establish G2 hegemony, particularly in the Pacific.
      • Japan's choice; to aim G3 (US/China/Japan) hegemony in the pacific, or to accept laissez-faire policy being mezzanine power country.
      • Media propaganda to confine emerging countries; by human rights, democracy, and environmental issues (plus intellectual property issue)
      • Jewish (multipolarist) enemy is Jewish (imperialist).

5. 多極化の政治史:

  • League of Nations: 国際連盟
  • Tripple Entente: 三国協商
  • diplomatic recognition: 国家承認
  • 1919 国際連盟
    • 米国W. Wilson大統領提唱、実際は英国は主導
    • 米国は批准せず
  • 第二次大戦:
    • 英国にとって米国参戦が必須。
    • 大西洋憲章・国連
    • 但し、英国は冷戦を画策
  • 工業化
    • 工業化適応国; 独日米
    • 英国内の帝国派vs.資本派の対立
    • 米国ユダヤ系資本はロシア革命を支援
    • 中国での第一次国共合作も支援
  • 第二次大戦
    • 日独伊三国同盟調印年に米国はソ連を国家承認
    • ナチス独による欧州席捲

  • World 1945:



  • US Presidents of Republican:
    1. 1953-61: Dwight Eisenhower:
    2. 1969-74: Richard Nixon
    3. 1974-77: Gerald Ford
    4. 1981-89: Ronald Regan
    5. 1988-93: George Bush
    6. 2001-09: George W. Bush
    7. 2017- : Donald Trump


  • 1946/3 冷戦の開始
    • Churchill鉄のカーテン演説
    • 冷戦は米英の共通利益
    • Kennedy暗殺


  • 英国経済不況:
    • イスラエルによるイスラエル軍産複合体
    • Reagan主導の冷戦集結
    • 中東和平交渉


  • 金融Globalization


  • Nixonドクトリン
    • 沖縄返還
    • 石油ショック
  • 双子の赤字
    • 金交換停止
    • 変動相場制
    • 米中国交回復
    • ベトナム戦争終了


Nominal 2018 ppp 2017 per capita 2016
1.US 20.4 19.4 57
* [EU] 19.7 20.9 36
2.China 14.1 23.2 15
3.Japan 5.2 5.4 41
4.Germany 4.2 4.2 48
5.UK 2.9 2.9 42
6.France 2.6 2.8 42
7.India 2.8 9.5 7
8.Italy 2.2 2.3 37
9.Brazil 2.1 3.2 15
10.Canada 1.8 1.8 47
11.Russia 1.7 4.0 26
  • 1992 EU設立
  • その後の動向
    • 英国のEU離脱
    • 米国 America first政策

>Top 6. Leverage-based financial revolution:

  • Change of banks' business model:
    • 2008/6; Stephen Green, chairman of HSBC said, "The business model using high leverage was collapsed. This is not a collapse of bubble economy, but that of a business model. Banks need to return to the basic management style, establishing more reliable relations with client, effect to operation, and participation into rapidly growing market."
    • Since1980s financial globalization enabled high-leveraged business model, operating in high-growth emerging markets, furthermore since around 2002 credit derivative securitized US hosing loans (like CDS) is rapidly expanded risky operations.
    • Since collapse of US housing loans market in 2007, even risk assessment itself became unreliable, eventually collapsing many derivative products.
    • Financial liberation has enormously expanded profit of financial industry from 10% in early 1980s to 40% in 2007.
      • In Japan, when the bubble economy was collapsed in 1990, Japanese banks were prohibited to pursue risky operations; causing reorganizing banks during the lost decade period.
      • UK economy which collapsed in 1970s and 1980s, but revived since middle 1980s by the financial revolution (liberation), and London revived as the global financial center causing 14-year continuous economic growth.
      • Financial revolution enabled successful business model investing in China or Russia; which became an incentive for UK to allow the end of Cold War.
      • During various strategic mistakes by Bush administration eventuated the political and economical rise of BRICS.
      • Immoderate printing of US$ creates easy expansion of 'excellent bonds' of not only US G-bond, but bonds of other advanced countries G-bond and blue chip corporations; establishing hierarchical order of rate assessment system.
  • >Top Financial weapon:
    • Financial weapon was developed since 1990s, which is neither visible in execution nor be blamed as a war crime, and could be done by fewer people without informing their citizens.
    • This weapon is possibly used in the cases in Asian currency crisis in 1997-98, or Greek G-bond crisis in 2010.
    • As intelligence activity is important prior the war, it the same case of financial war.
      • Such intelligence operation is done in Wall Street or City of London rather than Langley in Virginia, or Pentagon.
    • >Top Excess issuance of US$:
      • Fiat money:
        2 times of Gold volume (1969); now about 5 times were issued. (end of 1970)
      • 1971-75: US Government tried to devaluate US$ to return the Gold Standard; but in 1976 floating exchange rate system was finally adopted. (Kingston system)
      • Since 1985 financial liberalization, shadow banks (hedge fund or investment banks handling bonds with high leverage ratio) have sustained $ value.
      • No support or unsubstantiated money becomes rather strength of US$.; which is supported by bond financial system (or shadow banking system).
        • Enormous amount of the offshore dollar account which was made as the off balance of the financial institutions became support of US$.
        • US-UK economy had not experienced minus growth more than decade since 1990s.
        • But expansion trend of US economy has stopped since the subprime crisis in 2006, due to the collapse of overall credibility of the bond market.
        • >Top 2018/3: Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) (Financial Regulation Act), which aims to turn banks into regulated utilities.
          • Such a minor regulation will not make ineffective of the financial weapon.

6. レバレッジ型金融革命:

  • fiat moneyt: 不換紙幣
  • 2008 HSBC会長の講演



  • FSB (Financial Stablity Board): (www.financialstabilityboard. org)
  • established 2009/4; formerly FSF (Forum) established in Switzerland.; issues 'Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017'.
    • FSB defines shadow banking (or market-based finance) as 'creadit intermediation involving entities and activities outside of the regular banking system.'
    • MUNFI (Monitoring Univese of Non-bank Financial Intermediation) is a measureof non-bank inermediation, comprising insurance corporation, pension funds, other financial intermediaries (OFIs) and financial auxiliaries.

  • 金融兵器=債券金融システム
    • 不換貨幣=幽霊通貨
      • 金融緩和 =QE
      • 金融格付け
    • 国際金融市場拡大
      • $75T
      • 信用不安
      • 巨大ネズミ講
    • 金融安定理事会
      • 裏の銀行システム監視
      • 世界金融資産の半分
    • 先進国経済の持続的発展

>Top 7. Mechanism of US financial hegemony:

  • Mechanism:
    • >Top FSB (Financial Stability Board) published the scale of shadow banking: $61T (2008) increased to $67T (2012/11) and $75.2T (2014/10), which correspond to nearly half of the world financial assets.
    • US-UK economy had grown by the expansion of shadow banking, though their manufacturing had been in slack.
    • Non-regulated transactions; bond financial system such as MBS (mortgage backed security), Derivatives, MMF (Money Management Fund) , CDS (Credit Default Swap)
    • >Top Excess dollar by QE has bought US G-bond, which increase shadow system, but will not cause inflation.
      • This mechanism is not controlled by the government, but by Wall Street.
      • Dodd-Frank Act. aims to minimize to affect to the real economy.
      • Governing mechanism; to maximize the common interest, but pursue each optimization. (Market Fundamentalism)
      • US Gov. has no strategy but continue QE and lose US$ supremacy.; World pursues soft landing of the collapse.
      • Multipolar governance by G20.
        • No more key currency than US$
        • € can't be world key currency; ¥ once challenged, but now impossible.
        • RMB might be possible.; Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand tend to peg with RMB.; only Japan, Vietnam, and Mongol respect US$.
        • China and Germany agreed trade settlement by Euro & RMB.
        • 2016 AIIB (capital $100B) invested by 70 countries (excluding US and Japan); investment for OBOR (One Belt, One Road Initiative)
    • Counter movement by EU and China:
      • Research and warning by FSB; restricting speculations to prevent another Euro crisis (the attack by short sales, derivatives, CDS, etc.)
      • Shadow transactions; 1/3 is in US, 2/3 in EU, etc.
    • >Top Basel-III (Third Basel Accord):
      • 2013/4: Global regulatory framework on bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risks; in response to the financial crisis in 2007-08. (Macro prudence)
      • Switzerland considered Basel II was insufficient in 2007 crisis; USB suffered enormous impairment loss.
        • Risk-based Capital ratio: $\frac{\text{GET1}}{\text{RWAs}}\le 4.5$%
          • require banks Tier-1 capital 7% (4.5% of CET1+ 2.5% AT1)
          • 7% CET1 capital ratio from 2019 onwards
          • CET=Common Equity Tier-1: common share+retained earnings
          • RWA=Risk Weighted Asset: multiplied by relevant risk weight; more capital to cover riskier exposures.
          • AT1=Additional Tier-1: capital instrument with no fixed maturity
          • Tier-2: subordinated debt and general loan-loss reserves
        • Leverage ratio: $\frac{\text{Tier-1 Capital}}{\text{Total exposure}}\le 3$%
          • 2013 US Federal Reserve: announced leverage ratio 6% for 8 SIFI (Systemically important financial institution banks; too big to fail)
        • Liquidity requirements:
          LCR=$\frac{\text{High quality liquid assets}}{\text{Total net liquidity outflows over 30days}}\le 100$%
          • LCR=Liquidity Coverage Ratio
      • Profitability:
        • Conventional bank business: ROE average 15%, risk continues until repayment; business scale $10T in US, and $30T worldwide.
        • Leveraged financial business: ROE average 50-100%; risk can be sold in securitization. (Anglo-Saxon type finance); business scale $10.5T
          • Housing loan: no loss of principal until insolvency 25% (AAA) and less than 5% (B)
          • After 2007 crisis, even AAA housing loans could to sold.
          • Creditor could not segment default loan, and execute security right.
          • QE→down of fund raising cost→down of risk premium→more AAA bond→virtuous cycle of finance
          • Once financial crisis happens →Evaluation rating will be meaningless→even CDS can not be covered.
          • CDS securing 20% of ABS (asset backed securities); balance $60T。
      • >Top Formerly FRB governs commercial banks, and SEC governs investment banks; now FRB governs both.
        • 1988 SIV (Structured Investment Vehicle); special purpose off-balance fund to profit from credit spreads between short-term debt and long-term structured finance products (ABS).
  • >Top History of Tax Haven (offshore financial center):
    • 1967: Cayman Islands started tax haven.
      • After the Nixon Shock in 1971 the Gold Standard was collapsed.
      • Floating Exchange rate system is preferable for tax haven countries, who can secretly manipulate it.
      • Since 1985, secret funds from African dictators have accumulated in Jergy Island in Channel Islands near Normandy. (Crown dependency)
    • Nicholas Shaxson: researcher at Chatham House, wrote about sub-Saharan Africa oil ('Poisoned Wells') and Tax Havens ('treasure Islands'), criticizing US-UK global strategy.
      • The maximum income tax in US is 39.6%, but actually top 400 billionaire averagely pay tax only 17%, without considering tax haven.
      • Total assets of governments and corporations related African business are much larger than their related debts; Africa is surplus countries, but actually debt countries.
      • Capital inflow to Greece at the time of G-Bond crisis is mostly from tax haven countries; Luxemburg, Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Ireland, etc.
      • Unless enormous hidden funds deposited in tax haven, most of problems of US financial deficit, African poverty, and EU financial crisis could be explicit.
      • The hidden funds (drastically increased since 1985) amounts more than half of the world financial assets, and 1/3 investment money of MNE.
      • The Cayman Islands accumulated $1.9T fund, more than 3/4 of the world hedge fund.
      • After WWII, most of British colonies were abolished, but made world small territories function as tax haven to absorb funds from US or others.
      • Regarding tax haven operation, English bank supported, and UK Ministry of Finance opposed; UK Ministry of Foreign Affairs took ambiguous attitude.
        • British series: Jarsey Island, Cayman Islands, Bermuda Islands, Ireland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong.
        • Continental series: Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Monaco
        • Others: Panama, Gabon, Ghana
    • Object of tax haven:
      • A function of the financial weapon:
        • Enormous funds can outflow to the target of emerging country to expand the bubble there and make it collapse.
        • Since 1990s, such actions caused economic crisis in Mexico, South-eastern countries, Korea, and marginal countries of EU.
        • George Solos is an exceptionally took an action against the will of UK.
        • Switzerland is an permanent neutral country which can collect money and functions as a tax haven; accepted funds from hostile countries to UK like Socialists, or Nazi Germany.; Since 1980s Switzerland which accepted Nazi fund was pressed to abandon such tax haven function, compensating to Jewish. (actually UK operates more tax haven bases than Switzerland.)
      • During American Civil War (1861-65), UK funded Confederate Army via Bahama Island.
      • Since 1930s, US mafia made money laundering from Florida to Cuba via Caribbean Islands. This Florida route was revived after the Cuban Revolution in 1959.
      • US CIA intervened the Drug War in Latin America via the Florida money laundering route.
    • The more money inflows tax haven countries, the more powerful the financial weapon grows.
      • China recognizes function of Hong Kong, procuring or depositing their fund to perform political investment.
  • >Top Tobin Tax:
    • 1972; James Tobin; intended to put a penalty on short-term financial round-trip excursions into another currency.; 0.5% of the volume of the transaction.
    • 2016/3; China drafted rules to impose a genuine currency transaction tax; initially 0% calculating potential revenue from different rate schemes.
    • George Soros; it is true that it may discourage currency speculation but it would also reduce the liquidity of the market place.
    • CTT (Currency Transaction Tax), or more general FTT (Financial Transaction Tax).
    • Economists propose 0.01 -0.1% tax rates, considering existing transaction costs (spread) of multinational banks; to be used as UN costs.
      • To perform the Tobin Tax, IMF needs to govern all International transactions; which means to deny the function of tax haven.
      • US functions as the world government, and IMF as the world Ministry of Finance.
  • >Top Scenario of collapse of the financial hegemony:
    • QE→raise of stock prices→(apparent) economic growth without decreasing unemployment rate.
    • Most of the general public (80% of US people) suspect the apparent economic growth.
    • US-UK credit rating agencies (like Moody's Corp) needs either to devaluate US-UK G-bond or to discredit own evaluation.
    • Distorted data:
      • Not only credit rating but there are other distorted data by US Gov.
      • Unemployment rate, Inflation rate, Crude oil prices (WTI index, West Texas Intermediate 6% of US crude oil production, or 1-2% of world at NYMEX, merged with CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2009), etc.
      • Credibility of US$ depends on US hegemony, or vice versa.; Collapse of US-UK hegemony may cause murder-suicide of the world economy system.

7. 金融覇権の仕組み:

  • CDS: credit defaut swap

  • メカニズム
    • FSBの分析
    • 市場原理主義
    • G20創設

  • Basel-III 2017/12:
    ( Basel-I 1988, Basel-II 2004)
    1. 自己資本比率強化:
      Tier-1: 中核自己資本
    2. 流動性比率:
    3. レバレッジ比率:












  • 金融業界の利益率:
    • 通常: 15% リスク有
    • 証券化: 50-100%リスク無

  • 格付け評価独占:
    • 量的緩和→資金調達コスト低減→リスク・プレミアム低減→AAA債券増加→金融の好循環

  • Tax Haven 租税回避地:
    • 1967ケイマン諸島から
    • 為替変動性は有利
    • アフリカ援助横流し資金
    • Chatham House研究員の良心?
    • 米国租税上限対策
    • 金融兵器庫
    • 各国のQEが資金源
    • 世界のHedge Fundの3/4


  • Tax Havenの歴史
    • ギリシア金融危機
    • 多国籍企業




  • Tax Havenの役割
  • スイスの役割
  • 米国南北戦争
  • マフィア資金
  • 麻薬資金・麻薬撲滅資金
  • George Solos
  • 中国資金







  • Tobin Tax:
    • 1972提唱 James Tobin
    • CTTかFTTか
    • Tobin Tax率
    • IMFの役割

  • 金融覇権崩壊のシナリオ
    • QE→株価上昇
    • →経済成長(失業率低下は伴わない
    • 米英格付け会社の役割


  • 歪められた統計指標
    • 失業率
    • インフレ率
    • 石油価格

  • 米ドルの信任は米国覇権に連動。
    • 米英覇権の崩壊→

>Top 8. World War for hegemony:

  • 1980s-: The main battlefield of US/Russia is finance.
    • Real battle in Iraq or Afghanistan is 'outside man,' or a supporting role to make the Military-Industrial Complex silent, or one of multipolar strategies.
    • Most of territorial disputes are the result of hegemonus Suzerain actions.
      • WWI and WWII occurred the challenge of Germany and Japan again UK hegemony.
      • UK asked US to support the wars in exchange for shifting the center of hegemony.
      • Physical occupation or colonization has not been allowed since the French Revolution; the victorious country change regime of the occupied country, usually establishing a puppet government.
        • This trend is backed by strengthened capitalists after the Industrial Revolution.
        • Modern way of control: such latent power became the main stream of hegemony.
    • >Top New Cold War:
      • Russia and China are mostly preparing such financial war.
      • Russia, suffered economic sanctions by US and EU, resurrected economic relations with China against US$.
      • BRICS have promoted without drawing attention such as:
        • Non-dollar settlement in mutual trade.
        • Decrease of US$ ratio in the foreign exchange reserve, and increase of mutual currency or gold ratio.
        • Before Ukraine crisis in 2014, China continued to buy US Ground, pegging more its RMB to US$, and Putin Russia also didn't take hostile actions.; but after the crisis the phase has changed.
        • G20 activities are discreet or inconspicuous.
      • Actual strife:
        • US Gov. prevents fall of US G-bond and credibility of US$ by continuing QE policy, on the other side, strengthens economic sanctions against Russia; rating companies relegated Russia as a junk.; Moody's Ba1, S&P BBB-, Fitch BBB-
          • Ratings: AAA/AA+/AA/AA-/A+/A/A-/BBB+/BBB/BBB-/BB+ ...
          • 2018/2: S&P raised Russian G-bond from BB+ to BBB-
        • 2014/3; Obama visited Saudi Arabia and asked to decrease the oil price, intending decrease income of Russia. But Saudi Arabia didn't agreed; groping some approach to Iran or Syria.
          • War situation is changeable according to financial situation, interest rate trend, oil price, and gold price.
          • US/UK Gov. have continued to lower the gold price by futures trading.; raise of gold price favors producing country Russia.
    • Gold bullion:
      • Gold is the opposite value of US$ or US G-bond.
        • US FRB and financial institutions unfairly devalue the gold market using futures market.
        • Raise of gold value is preferable for gold-mining countries like Russia.
      • >Top London Gold Fix: there is constant rumors of suspicion of illegal operation by major banks involved in this deal.
        • Current participants: Barkleys, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Goldman Sacks, HSBC USA, JP Morgan Stanley, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, Scotiabank, Toronto-Dominion Bank
        • FRB sold 12,000 gold plates within 60 seconds, equivalent to 10% of total daily transaction.
          • Globex; 24hour-electronic transaction of commodities operated by CME. FRB often sells about 5,000 gold plates (about 15 tons) at midnight in Globex, effectively devalue of gold futures.
          • FRB sells gold in London market; which deals more in spot trading.
          • China or other emerging countries are in high demand of gold; when they buy it, they eager to hold it by themselves.
          • JP Morgan or Morgan-Stanley has withdrawn from gold market.
          • Specialists intentionally explains that excess money made be QE tends to buy gold, i.e., less QE causes to reduce gold price.; actually less QE causes raise gold price.
            • 2011 Venezuela required to return 160 tons of gold deposited at FRB; FRB returned it spending 4 months.
            • 2012 Germany required FRB to return 1500 tons of gold; after both government agreed that US return 300 tons in 7 years. (this indicates there may be no more reserve of gold bullion in FRB's deposit.
            • Netherlands secretly required FRM to return 122 tons of gold, FRB retuned it. aw9
      • EU's counters:
        • 2010-11 Greek G-bond attached by US-UK speculators; Euro crisis could be escaped.
        • 2014/1; Deutsche Bank withdrew from the panel of London Gold Fix.
        • requires illegal operation of global gold market.
        • requires to intensify tax haven operation, and promote Tobin tax idea.
        • China is collecting many gold bullions to empty gold reserve of FRB.
    • Financial bond system: mainly leads the world economics.
      • Value of bonds: is mortgage.
        • many synonyms: security, surety, mortgage, guaranty, collateral, pledge, assurance, indemnity, indemnification, hostage, pawn, backing, bail; gage, earnest
      • Bond and mortgage are not one-to-one correspondence.
        • bundling many bonds into one, which is sliced and sold according to the rating of its portion.
        • the total value of issued bonds are larger than the total mortgage.; once the mortgage became uncertain, value of the bonds would have collapsed.
        • Gold bullion has minimum value as jewelry, but the bond could be zero in value.; the value of bond is sustained by external credit system (financial market), while the value of gold is retained internally.
        • US secretly sent 42 gold of Ukraine Central Bank to US.
        • China buys gold bullion via Hong Kong private organization; intending to collect as much as 8,500 tons.
      • 2014/11 Divide:
        • Bonds had been stronger than gold, but from this divide the situation has changed.
        • Collapse of financial bond market would be very serious for world economy; QE could not support the collapse, obviously it became worse recession than Lehmann Shock in 2008; it would open the Pandora's Box.
      • >Top Gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund); backed by physical gold and are traded on stock exchange.
        • Gold carry trade: commodity is negative carry assets, which incur storage cost.; borrowing low carry asset (US$Z) and leading a high carry one (gold during crisis).

8. 覇権をめぐる世界大戦:

  • outside man: 目くらまし
  • suzerain: 宗主国
  • cost of carry: storing cost of a physical asset
  • 米露の主戦場は金融
    • イラク/アフガニスタンの戦争は目くらまし
  • 領土紛争は宗主国による覇権争いの結果
    • 仏革命後、直接占領統治より間接支配(覇権)
  • 新冷戦:
    • 露中は特に金融戦争を準備
    • 露は経済制裁下にあり、中国との経済関係復活
    • BRICSも非ドル化で連動
  • 各国国債格付け


  • 金塊:
    • 米ドル/米国債の対局
    • 金相場の意図的引き下げ
  • 金相場: London Golf Fix
  • 2017/8/25 三菱UFJ Morgan Stanley証券が国債先物取引で見せかけで6000億円買いや2000億円売り相場操作した。証券取引等監視委員会は同社に課徴金2.28億円を課した。

  • 金地金確保競争:
    • German Gold (3400 tons): deposited at:
      • US 66%
      • UK 21%
      • France 8%
      • Germany 5%
    • Japanese Gold 765 tons: deposited at US.
    • FRB's Fort Knox Deposit:
    • 金地金連動投資信託
    • 金キャリートレード



  • 国際債券市場が世界経済を牽引
    • 国債の価値は担保
    • 債務総額>担保総額
    • 2014は分水嶺



>Top 9. China and Russia alliance:

  • Financial Proxy War:
    • Russia, under sanction from US-UK, promotes alliance with China; increasing investment and long-term export of oil gas to China for mutual benefit.
    • China feels threatened by US hegemony in Asia, being confined by US and its allies.
    • In 2104 APEC, Xí Jìnpíng always sit next to Putin, showing its firm friendship.
      • Probably, urging US to persuade Japan to keep better stance to China.
    • >Top 1993; CICA (Conference on Interrelation and Confidence-building measures in Asia) was organized by 26 countries in Eurasia, including Russia, China, India, Iran, Turkey, Vietnam, Israel, Thailand, Korea, with observing member of US, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, etc.; Asian version of OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe)
      • 2001 SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization); Eurasian political, economic, and security organization; promoted by Shanghai five (China, Russian, Kazakhstan, Kirgiz, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan; in 2017 India and Pakistan joined.), started from border trust in the regions.
      • 2104; Russia concluded with China of long-term oil gas sales agreement.
        • Russia sells to Europe at $380/1000 sq.m; probably sells to China around $350
    • Geopolitical triangle:
      • FT says that US/Russia/China is like a geopolitical triangle.; if two countries approach , the third country will be eliminated.
      • In 1972 US Nixon regained good relationship with China, Russia (then USSR) declines. Putin's approach to China is like a 'reverse-Nixon' movement; Russia-China alliance may deteriorate US hegemony.
      • 2014/8 UK required SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) to expel Russia from the organization as Russia sanction.; but on the contrary it is insisted that Israel should be expelled.; SWIFT itself does not want to be used as an International political tool, appealing neither Russia nor Israel to be expelled from the organization.
      • US (NSA) is monitoring all transactions of SWIF in the name of anti-terrorism war.
      • Russian orchestrates other BRICS countries to make new SWIFT system, circulation Chinese Union Pay system in Russia.; this movement imply more severe financial battle between Bretton Woods system and BRICS.
    • >Top (CUP) China Union Pay (Yeinlián, 银联); Chinese major bank card operated by People's Bank of China (PBOC), which is also only interbank network in China linking all ATMs, already bigger than Visa and MasterCard; having global alliance with Discover (US), RuPay (India), JCB (Japan), and BC Card (Korea).
      • 2014/5 EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) was established by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, aiming free working using ruble.; based on similar model of Euro.

9. 中国と手を組むロシア:

  • Proxy war: 代理戦争
  • 1992 CICA会議
  • 2001 SCO; 上海協力機構


  • 地政学的三角形



  • CUP (China Union Pay):


  • EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union)

>Top 10. Hegemonical strategy of BRICS:

  • Chinese economy:
    • Bubble-like economy of real estate in China; housing price was arisen averagely 9% per annum, but nominal income raises 12%.; the level of bubble seems not so serious (by FT).
    • Bond issuance in China; was less than $1B in 2018, increasing $9.2 in 2013, and $16.9B in 2014.
      • Worldwide excess money produced by US QE3 has inflowed in Chinese real estimate market.
      • Chinese economy is rather stronger eve in case of collapse of stock and real estate market.
    • >Top 2014/7 BRICS countries established NDB (New Development Bank) by China, Russia, India, Brasil, and South-Africa with $100B and with equal shares as BRICS Development Bank; headquartered in Shanghai, and its service is starting in 2016.
      • IMF's stance against defaulted countries was quite server and unpopular in emerging countries.
        • IMB agreed to assign a part of voting right to BRICS, but US congress rejects it.
      • There has been no alternative to be funded other than IMF.
      • As a function of NDB, each central bank of member countries agreed to swap each currency to perform trading settlement.; this mechanism accelerates trade settlement based on 5 countries basket currency instead of US$.; the trade amount of 5 countries counts 40% of the world trade.
        • EU in fact participated in this swap mechanism of BRICS.
    • >Top 2016/1; AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank): now was participated by 84 countries (Cf: ADB 67) with capital $100B; actual lending commitment amounts $4.2B in 2016-2017 (Cf. ADB $36.6B in two years); more than half lending projects are joint finance with World Bank (10 projects) and with ADB (4 projects); while demand for Asian infrastructure is forecast $26.6T (2016-2030), averagely $1.7T annually; these enormous amount is actually impossible to be procured.
      • Aiming to promote construction of Asian infrastructure covering not only Terrestrial Silk Road but Marine Silk Road.
      • Political CICA organization and economic AIIB are functioning as the two wheels of Chinese strategy.
      • 2014/7 Chinese leader Xí Jìnpíng first visited Korea (earlier than North Korea) and agreed to increase bilateral settlement of mutual trade.
    • >Top EU synchronize with BRICS;
      • 2013; it was disclosed that US NSA eavesdropped Merkel's mobile phone.
      • TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) negotiation was aborted.
      • US pressures EU to impose economic sanctions against Russia due to Ukraine issue.
        • In EU, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Greece are rather sympathetic, while UK, Poland, and Baltic countries are anti-Russia.; the former group is stronger.
        • US FRB claims that the financial report of Deutsche Bank is insufficient.
        • 2014/6 US penalized BNP Paribas Bank and stopped dollar settlement on suspicion of cooperating money laundering of Sudan and Cuba.
      • EU is scheming to make German-Italian-Chinese-Russian counter action against UK-UK hegemony.
      • Jewish intelligence in US/UK considers to transfer hegemonical structure without world war.
      • >Top Chinese rating company Dàgōng (大公, impartial) evaluated same CCC after the default of Argentine G-bond (2001).
        • US NY court judged not to approve reschedule of Argentine G-bond.; which US financial organization worries that this judgement may cause adversely affect in future issuance of foreign G-Bond in US.

10. BRICSの覇権戦略:

  • 中国経済の動向:
  • BRICS開発銀行 NDB:

  • アジアインフラ開発銀行 (AIIB):
    • 84カ国参加
    • 米日の不参加
    • 陸・海のシルクロード





  • EUの動き:
    • 米国との確執
    • 独伊中露vs.米英


    • 交渉中
  • ユダヤ国際ネットワーク


  • 中国格付け会社 (大公)

>Top 11. Japanese docile subservience to US:

  • Abenomics' is a relief measures of US financial industry:
    • 2014/8 Japan did maximum support buying (explicit manipulation) of stocks in Japan.
    • BOJ holds ¥7T ($70B) stocks (1.5% of aggregate market price of TSE); concealing failure of Abenomix (Third arrow).
      • US Gov. also is doing PPT (Plunge Protection Team); implicit market manipulation action to prevent another 1987 Black Monday.
      • Open manipulation of Japanese stocks by BOJ is connived US Gov. as a supportive action for US QE policy.
        • Japanese QE is one of the core policies of Abenomics.
      • Abe administration also ordered GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund) to increase purchase of stock.
        • GPIF investment: Japanese bond 35%, Japanese stock 25%, Foreign stock 25%, Foreign bond 15%.
      • Both US and Japan manipulates to keep high in stock prices by enormous QE money, as well as dressing unemployment data.
        • In Japan, official unemployment rate is about 3%, but is believed actually more than 10%.
        • Economical statistics is more or less as much as politics.
    • Salary down of Japanese workers:
      • Formerly average salary of Japanese businessmen were around ¥5M per year, but now the average pay of increasing non-regularly employees is around ¥2M per year, who could neither marriage nor buy a house.
      • Decrease of consumption and lowering price index is mainly due to 1) global production (shift to emerging market), 2) decrease of production and logistics cost by computerization, 3) price destruction by free trade.
    • Japanese Gov. continues to follow US too much.
      • US stopped QE, but Japan increase QE policy to prolong the world bubble economy.
      • It looks like the mass suicide during the last WWII.
    • Cool economic analysts:
      • In Japan there is little cool economic analysts, who never blindly accept the government official policy.
      • There are not a few US analysts who value the Gold Standard, criticizing blind obedient continuation of QE policy.
      • Critical analysts warn various official statistics, including unemployment rate, CPI, exchange, interest rate.

11. 対米従属に固執する日本:

  • connive: 黙認する
  • 米国 PPTによる監視


  • 日銀によるQE継続
  • 年金機構 (GPIF)による株式投資


  • 統計データの粉飾疑惑
  • 経済格差拡大



  • 冷静な経済分析者必要

>Top 12. New phase of the financial world war:

  • Oil price:
    • 2014/10, North Sea Blent became less than $60/bbl.
    • Counter movement to US oil shale:
      • Saudi and UAE announces to neglect even the oil price becomes less than $40/bbl.
      • Russian or Iran seem rather cool to this down trend of oil price.
      • US oil shale production cost: observed that majority oil shale will be deficit under $66/bbl.
        • US oil shale industry contracts with banks compensation agreement in case of decline of crude oil price. (three-way collar)
        • US financial industry continues to support jank bonds of US shale oil industry; together with continuous selling of gold futures to prevent sharp rise.
        • Chicken race between US Shale industry vs. Russia/Saudi G-bond collapse.
        • Russia is rather stronger due to; 1) political stability, 2) non-dollar trend of trade settlement, 3) better relationship with China, 4) depending oil gas income, 5) less depending on G-bond; but worriying factors are cheap Ruble and economic confusion (collapse of Russian G-bond and national corporations' bond).
  • Trauma of 1997 Asian financial crisis:
    • US financial industry could destroy finance in emerging countries, causing dollar reflux to buy more (stable) US G-bond.
    • Particularly, causing to lower stock markets of emergin countries earlier than collapse of jank bond of US shale industry.
    • The initial stage of financial world war has started; Russia/Saudi lowering price strategy of oil price vs. US financial industry's counter operations.)
      • OPEC's laissez-faire policy of lower oil price is de facto proclamation of financial war.
      • Japan is participating in the war by continuing QE policty to support US.
      • China recongnized this situation, keeping neutral stance until now, began to support Russia. (like the case of US in WWI and WWII)
  • Effect of US financial weapons:
    • 2014/12: 20% slump of Russian ruble to R80/US$, nearly half level since beginnin of the same year; together with stock exhange and bond market.; the goverment required national major 5 companies to buy ruble selling US$ to sustain ruble currency, which could recover up to R55/US$.
      • Russian central bank expressed to support companies which could not repay in foreign currency debt.
    • Putin admitted the confusing in the financial market is due to the hostile action of attrition war.
      • There is a limit of foreign reserve of Russia, while US has no limit of dollar weapon.
    • >Top Putin's preparation for the financial war:
      • There is a oil pipeline connecting Russia and China; and gas pipeline is under construction. (>Fig.)
      • Russia can earn money (RMB) by selling oil gas to China, if the export to EU became difficult.
      • If Russia became default, EU, mostly Germany would suffer a loss.
      • UK's postion; traditionally US has been anti-Russia since the Russian Revolution, but at the same time, is considering multipolar system, and UK survices as the internatil financial center.
      • France and Italy has been pro-Russia. Joint actions of Germany and UK may accelarate to make multipolar system.

12. 金融世界大戦の新局面:

  • 石油価格動向
    • $40/bblを巡る攻防
    • 原油安を巡る米露の攻防
    • サウジの対応
      • 対米追従 or シェール革命潰し
      • ISIS対応
    • 米国シェール油田の生産コスト$66で半数赤字?
    • 金融業界の支援; 二番底方式
  • Russina-China Gas Pipeline:


  • 1997 アジア通貨危機のトラウマ
    • 米国金融業界は、新興国の金融を崩壊させ、米国へのドル還流を企てる。
    • 金融世界戦争はすでに開始した。
    • ロシア・サウジの石油価格低廉化対米国金融業界の対抗策
      • OPECの動き
      • 日本の参戦
      • 中国のロシア支援の動き
      • プーチンの対抗策。
  • 米国兵器の効果:

>Top 13. Postscript:

  • This book is compiled for the author's new summary.
  • Since 2015/1, the situation is changing more rapidly.
  • >Top Each central bank does not act independently, but does as a world network led by US FRB.; since the Bretton Wood system, the Plaza Accord, and recent QE policy.
    • The QE policy could not recover the world economy, but to survive longer of US financial hegemony.
    • US has continued QE for six years, but could not recovered.
      • Germna and Swiss banks did not follow the QE plicy.
      • China is an outsider of the central banks network; watching critically the situation.
  • The battle between gold and paper will end.
    • consequently many delivative transactions will be terminated.; and finally the Gold Standard may be revived.
    • The financial bond market will collapse; and many banks will be in defaut.; banks will be survived by 'bail-in' system (reducing major credit), not by 'bail out' system.
  • Japan followed US QE policy, inevitably is destine to follow declining route in several or two decade years. There is not enough analysis or warning about this pessimistic scenario; most of the people will fall in total confusion.

13. あとがき:

  • bail-in: creditors are required to cancel some debts to save it from collapse.
  • 各国中央銀行はネットワーク化して、米国QEに対応
  • 紙幣と金との争うの行末
  • 銀行救済はBail-in方式
  • 日本の運命: 数年〜20年
  • Very interesting.
  • Events and terms of financial world are complicated; this book describes clearly what is happening in the current world based on the author's viewpoint.
  • 非常に面白い。
  • 金融界の出来事と用語は複雑である。本書は現在世界で起きていることを著者の観点から明瞭に説明している。

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