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Runaway of a nation

- Manipulation of public opinion by Abe adminstration -

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2014/9
#: 1805b

Shigeaki Koga (古賀茂明)


Runaway of a nation


  1. Introduction:
  2. Runaway toward a military nation:
  3. 13 arrows for the war:
  4. What is the real pacifism?:
  5. The limit of Abenomics:
  6. Wrong policy of employment:
  7. Recommendation of revitalization of Japan:
  8. Aiming to reform Japan, never to war:
  1. 序: 加速する暴走:
  2. 軍事立国への暴走:
  3. 戦争をするための三本の矢:
  4. 本当の積極的平和主義とは:
  5. アベノミクスの限界:
  6. 間違いだらけの雇用政策:
  7. 日本再興への提言:
  8. 改革はするが戦争はしない国へ:

; 4Q policy; 13 arrows; Article-96; Beget and Multiply; Collective self-defense; Cool Japan; Crowding out effect; Dumping competition; Equal pay for equal work; GPIF; Growth strategy; Less population; Mere facade; Nuclear armament; Positive peace; Quibble; State Secret; Sustainable energy;

  • The author was an outstanding bureaucrat of METI up to Sept. 2011; now proposing various social reform plans as an economist.

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • 2014/7/1: Abe cabinet changed interpretation of Japanese Constitution; right of collective self-defence has been approved, subject to ambiguous three exercise conditions.; this issue had not been changed by successive cabinets.
    • Various different opinions in the diet was rejected, only each one day debate was held at both houses of the diet.
    • It is urgently urged that economic reform to respond to less population society and to reconstruct sustainable society in Japan.
    • But Abe administration seems to make Japan as a powerful country backed by increased military powers rather than soft powers. Military industry and death merchant would be the key function of Japan, in the name of protecting properties and lives of Japanese nationals, exporting weapons and nuclear plants worldwide.
  • MOF and METI:
    • Raise of consumption tax and promotion of nuclear plants are top priority of their policies.
    • Also, MOFA is eager to approve the use of collective self-defense with US.
    • Sugar, Chief Cabinet Secretary is important, who analyze in detail and function as a manipulator of the public opinion.
  • Dovish ministers:
    • Cashed foreign minister, and Andorra defense minister are dovish, who perform practical issues, never raising disagreement with Abe.
  • Cabinet Secretariat's secret funds:
    • mostly spent for public opinion measures, particular for mass media measures.
    • Team Abe promoting 13 arrows for being great powers.
  • >Top Artcle-96 of Japanese Constitution revising group:
    • 350 Diet members are organized in this group aiming to revise Article-96 of the Constitution, proposal condition of revision of the Constitution from 2/3 to 1/2.
      • emphasizing superiority of the Japanese nationals (particularly over Chinese & Korean)
      • People who has equal view of every national are excluded as having wrong historical awareness or non-Japanese ideology. (Runaway spiral)
  • House of Councillors election: start of the runaway
    • Abe's policy speech in 2013/3 started, "Strong Japan - which is made by ourselves.
    • The election in 2013/7: twisted situation was eliminated by the win of LDP.
    • 2013/11: Japanese NSC Law; will be decided by only 4 ministers (Prime Minister, Chief Cabinet Secretariat, Minister of MOFA, and Minister of Defense)
    • 2013/12: State Secret Law; to restrict media's activity collecting information.
    • pork barrel policy, including Fuji-san disposal cost.
    • 2013/5: abolish of three principles on arms export.

0. 序: 加速する暴走

  • collective self-defence: 集団的自衛権
  • runaway: 暴走
  • 国民を置き去りにした国家の暴走
  • 曖昧な答弁


  • ハト派閣僚の起用


  • 官房機密費の使途


  • 憲法96条改定の動き


  • 参議院選挙 2013/7:


>Top 1. Runaway toward a military nation:

  • Historic recognition of WWII:
    • to entrust evaluation of WWII to the future historians whether it was an aggressive war or not.
    • to continue to visit for worshipping the Yasukuni Shrine, where the class of-A criminals (like Hideki Tojo) are enshrined together.
    • the present Japanese Constitution was pressed by GHQ, and should have own one instead.
    • to break away from after the war regime; and to aim one of influential nation like US, Russian, China, UK, and France based on hard power.
  • Abe administration's 13 arrows:
    1-5 items already started; 6-8 under discussion; 9-11 written in LDP's constitution; 12-13 under preparation
    1. Japanese NSC
    2. State secrets law
    3. to abolish three principles of arms exports
    4. right of collective defense
    5. beget & multiply
    6. use of force under collective defense
    7. Japanese CIA
    8. military use of ODA
    9. national defense forces
    10. court-martial
    11. restriction of fundamental human rights
    12. conscription
    13. nuclear armament

1. 軍事立国への暴走:

  • state secrets law: 特定秘密法
  • 安倍政権 13本の矢
    1. 日本版NSC
    2. 特定秘密保護法
    3. 武器輸出三原則廃止
    4. 集団的自衛権行使容認
    5. 産めよ増やせよ政策
    6. 集団的安全保障の容認
    7. 日本版CIA
    8. ODAの軍事利用
    9. 国防軍の保持
    10. 軍法会議の設置
    11. 基本的人権の制限
    12. 徴兵制の導入
    13. 核武装

>Top 2. 13 arrows for the war:

  • [1st arrow] Japanese NSC (National Security Council) Law:
    • established in 2013/11/27
    • member: Prime Minister, Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minister of MOFA, and Minister of Defense
    • originally Chairman of National Public Safety Commission, Minister of Land, Infrastructure & Transport, Minister of METI, Minister of MOF, Minister of Internal Affairs & Communications are included, but became a mere facade
    • approval of the Diet is needed in principle
    • Information Monitoring:
      • will be made, but will be designated as Special Secrets for 30 years, extendable another 30 years.
    • It is urged to establish a set of discussion of information laws:
      • Committee of the Diet can counsel recommendation (no legal binding force)
      • minutes of NSC is to be Freedom of Information Act and Public Records Management Act, and limited range of Specially Designated Secrets, and monitoring by the third party organization.
    • Former cases:
      • Documents of return negotiation of Okinawa: disclosed in US, but the disclosure was dismiss at the Supreme Court in Japan in 2014/7.
      • Document of Fukushima accident in 2011 was disclosed in US after 2 years.
  • >Top [2nd arrow] State Secrets Law:
    • making secret of the information at NSC.
    • also making secret of sensitive administrative information
    • request of information disclosure becomes mere facade.
  • [3rd arrow] Arms export:
    • Defense equipment transfer principle (2014/4/1) abolishing former 'three principles on arms export.'
    • Arms export will be approved in the case of contributing international cooperation or national security.
      • 2013/5: JBF welcomed arms export as well as joint development of arms.
      • 2014/7: approved the export of parts for missile (PAC2) for Qatar.
    • Common point of military industry, general contractors, and agriculture cooperative association; which could not be reduced.
      • Bellicose country like US, which committed wars 30 times in the last 70 years.
      • Military industry expects constant needs of arms by various disputes and wars.
  • >Top [4th arrow] Use of collective self-defense:
    • The use of force to respond to situations where an armed attack against a foreign country that is in a close relationship with Japan occurs and as a result, threatens Japan’s survival and poses a clear danger to overturn fundamentally its people’s right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness, to ensure Japan’s survival, and to protect its people.
    • There is no limit of region of self-defense, and possibility of involvement of war as a result increases. (minesweeper, etc.)
  • [5th arrow] Quibble over collective self-defense:
    • trauma of The Gulf war (1991): 'Show me the flag."; contributed $13.5B
    • caused by secret maneuvers by MOFA to realize collective self-defense.
    • Collective Security system is the mean to maintain the internal order.
    • Collective self-defense can activate without UN Security Council resolution. (coalition of the Willing)
  • [6th arrow] Beget and Multiply policy
    • Government established numerical goal that the birth rate (fertility rate) should be 2.07 to maintain 100M population after 50 years.; (>Fig.)
    • (2.13/1970→1.75/80→1.54/90→1.36/2000→1.26/05(bottom)→1.44/16)
  • [7th arrow] Japanese CIA:
    • Overseas espionage activity: 2013/11 published by Kyodo News
    • Civilian control of these activities.
  • [8th arrow] Use of ODA
    • ODA budget ¥800B; now is specified to pay attention not to be used arms development and export.
    • But government aims to include foreign military support, particularly infrastructure for military use, etc.
    • Many NGO/NPO who participate in local activities are embarrassed, opposing such movement.
  • [9th arrow] Retention of national defense:
    • LDP draft of Article 9 of Revised Japanese Constitution:
      • 9-1: In order to accomplish peace, independence, and security of Japanese nation and nationals, Japan will retain the Defense Force with the Prime Minister as the commander-in-chief.
  • [10th arrow] Court-martial:
    • installation of court-martial; which will be a kind of extraterritorial related to the Defense Force.
  • [11th arrow] Restriction of fundamental human rights:
    • LDP draft of Article 12:
      • The freedoms and rights guaranteed to the people will accompany responsibility and obligation, and such freedoms and rights are subject to public interest and public order.
    • LDP draft of Article 21-1:a
      • Notwithstanding the said provisions, such activities as to harm public interest or public order, or to make association for it shall not be allowed.
    • These drafts may lead to the former National Mobilization Law in the wartime.
  • [12th arrow] Conscription:
    • Article 18 of Japanese Constitution states: ... Involuntary servitude, except as punishment for crime, is prohibited.
      • LDP's some politician insists, conscription is not included in the involuntary servitude, once the Defense Force is authorised in the constitution.
  • >Top [13th arrow] Nuclear armament:
    • Nuclear power states are authorized to own nuclear arms by NPT system.
    • In addition, India, Pakistan, & North Korea, and presumably Israel, Iran own nuclear arms.
    • LDP often emphasize that nuclear armament is ultimately effective as deterrent power.
    • Japan owns 46.9 tons of Pu (37.1 tons in UK/France, and 9.8 in domestic)

2. 戦争をするための13本の矢:

  • mere facade: 形骸化
  • Japan Business Federation: 経団連
  • collective security system: 集団安全保障
  • coalition of the willing: 有志連合
  • beget and multiply: 産めよ増やせ
  • court-martial: 軍法会議
  • >Top Less population society
  2015 2065
Population 127M 88M
Birth rate 1.45 1.44
Older age ≧65 33.9M 33.8M
Product age 15-64 77.3M 45.3M
Ratio 100 59
Young age ≦14 16.0M 9.0M
Life expectancy ♂ 81 85
Life expectancy ♀ 87 91



  • 日本版NSC



  • 集団的自衛権

  • 人口政策


  • 日本版CIA創設


  • ODA使途拡張


  • 憲法9条改定


  • 軍法会議


  • 徴兵制


  • 核武装


>Top 3. What is the real pacifism?:

  • 'The man who lied the world into war'; Curve ball falsely testimonies that the factory he worked in Iraq is a factor to produce chemical weapons.
    • In 2003, Bush administration pled this testimony as an excuse of attacking Iraq.
  • In 2004, when three Japanese NPO was kidnapped in Iraq, Japanese government almost believed the false information to rescue the victims.
  • US-Japan Security Agreement is not unilateral; Japan provides US military bases mainly in Okinawa with substantial support fund.
  • >Top World opinion is one of the major deterrent in the world disputes.
    • Japanese peace brand more than 70 years; which gives favorable position for the activities of NPO & NGO in various conflict areas.
    • John Galtung (1930-); Norwegian sociologist & mathematist; emphasized 'positive peace' to fight against structural violence (poverty, violence, discrimination of gender & community, oppression, disparity, including environmental issues) in contrast with simply no war situation (passive peace)
    • Abe administration's positive or proactive peace strategy mainly stresses expansion of military capability.

3. 本当の積極的平和主義とは:

  • 真の積極的平和主義

>Top 4. The limit of Abenomics:

  • Evaluation of Abenomics:
    • First arrow: it can be evaluated that cheaper yen and higher stock prices caused by massive monetary easing.
    • But it could not improve the trade balance; deficit of ¥10.8T in FY2013. Particularly, it is a problem that there is no expansion of export; hollowing of Japanese manufacturing industry causing cheaper yen will not contribute increase of export.
    • Second arrow: swift public spending; disseminating public works nationwide; ¥10T in FY2012, about 21% increase of construction; causing soaring of construction costs.
      • active public works regardless of cost ups, while private sector hesitate investment due to cost per performance. (crowding out effect)
    • >Top Third arrow: 2014/6 published new growth strategy, or Japan Revitalization Strategy. Japanese realize that Japanese economy is not growing any more!
      • It is seriously anticipated that when most the Japanese recognize that Japan is no more growing economically, while J-G continues to issue enormous G-bond, disseminate public works and military spending, and BOJ continues is to buy G-b0nd with monetary easing.
      • Corporate tax cut: but about 70% of Japanese corporations are deficit and not paying corporate tax.
      • Special taxation measures; almost every two years.
      • GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund); increases buying stocks.
      • Regional revitalization: shrinking local economy
      • insufficient reform of Agricultural Cooperative Association; maintaining convoy system.
      • insufficient policies for creating dynamic engagement of women; including child care environment (increase of nursery school, revise spousal reduction, etc.)

4. アベノミクスの限界:

  • アベノミクスの評価
    • 第1の矢: 金融緩和
    • 第2の矢: 公共投資拡大
    • 第3の矢: 成長戦略
  • クラウディング・アウト


  • 日本のGDP、輸出競争力、産業界の国際競争力


  • 日本の70%の企業は赤字
  • 生産性向上

>Top 5. Wrong policy of employment:

  • Sustainability should be the key:
  • >Top Recommendation of laziness:
    • Japanese labor consciousness: 'Diligent work is gold.'
    • But labor should be a cost; company needs to earn profit using the labor efficiently. Unpaid overtime is out of the question.
    • Over work situation for the sake of companies causes to increase burden for women, which eventually causes to less free time, less marriage ratio and less children. (Dumping competition of labor)
      • Increase of free time could spare more time for social activities (consumers, environment, political, labor, community, welfare, and cultural activities).
      • Compared to US & EU communities, Japan is quite inactive such social activities.; eventually depending too much on the public office.
      • In Japan, public service, and private corporations are big, but individual participation is quite poor and is buried in the former two sectors.
      • Increase of non-regular employment; eventually allowing low-wage & not trained labor.
        • Part-time workers less than 30 hours per week are not entitled to join the welfare pension and health insurance.
  • >Top Policies urgently needed:
    1. Equal pay for equal work: which can substainability eliminate discrimination of regular and non-regular employment.
    2. Linkage of my number with Pension Fund: any part time is to be counted as a right for pension fund.
    3. Imprisonment against no-pay overtime:
    4. Increase of premium rate of over time work:
      • Present premium rate is 125-150%, but usually 150% after 22:00 or holidays.
      • This rate should be raised to 150% in normal over time work and 200% after 22:00 or holidays.; company tends to employ additional worker.
    5. Compulsory paid vacation: this make company recognize cost of labor.
    6. Disclosure of employment agreement, particularly, pay level, over time pay, and paid vacation, etc.
    7. Placement services and job training: to promote employment mobility to more competitive industries.
    8. Thorough social fareness: strengthening Political Funds Control, false claim of medical treatment, tax evasion, etc.
    9. Revise of disparity between public and private employees: public officers' pay is now determined compared with regularly employed workers.
    10. Drastic measures for SMB is needed.
    11. Emancipation of farming land again: reform is needed of privileged wealthy farmers, medical doctors and SMB owners.

5. 間違いだらけの雇用政策:

  • 怠惰のすすめ: →労働はコスト


  • 雇用環境の改善と経済成長率



  • 同一労働同一賃金
  • サービス残業厳禁


  • 抜本的な中小企業政策

>Top 6. Recommendations of revitalization of Japan:

  1. Natural sustainable energy 100%:
    • Wind power, solar power, biomass energy, abandoning nuclear power.
    • Energy saving technology, cogeneration, wood & charcoal industry, and smart grid
  2. Export of Japan brand rice and other agricultural product:
  3. Competitive medical and care services:
  4. Top Tourism Nation like Switzerland: landscape regulation.
    • attract more tourist to Japanese culture (Cool Japan);
      including Japanese food, nature, fashion, architecutre, culture and sustainable community like village capitalism.
  5. More investment to Japan
    • making of value added product
    • attract more overseas investment to Japan

6. 日本再興への提言:

  • 再生可能エネルギーへの転換
  • 日本ブランド
  • 医療・介護サービス
  • 観光立国: クール・ジャパン
  • 日本への投資拡大

>Top 7. Aiming to reform Japan, never to war:

  • Policies free from existing pressure groups:
    • promotion of policies free from such pressure groups as Agricultural Cooperative Association, Medical Association, Electric Power Industry, Japan Business Federation, Associations for SMB, etc.
  • After the second Abe Administration (2012/12/26):
    • Diplomatic and security policies became major issues.
    • DSJ varies in opinions on this matter from the right to the left.
    • Function of Komei (Clean Government) Party; aligned with LDP in State Secret Law, but hesitated to accept Collective Self-Defense policy as it is.
      • Reduced Consumption Tax in case of increasing to 10%.
    • JCP and JSP are clearly braking parties of war promotion policies.
      • but support dole-out policies for lower class.
  • >Top Distribution of Japanese political parties: (>Fig)
    • Parties promoting policies belong to the 4th quadrant are urged:
    • 4Q policies: dovish policy in diplomacy & security, but promoting policy to reform Japanese economic structure.
    • policies to get support from independent or distrusting people (who are majorities of the electorate) of existing parties.

7. 改革はするは戦争はしない国へ

  • Distribution of Japanese political parties:
  • 第4象限志向政党へ


  • From the start of 2018, Japanese political situation is changing: falsification of official document by MOF, hiding of daily activity report by MOD, false answer allegations at the Diet by Cabinet Office; in addition incredible sex harassment to woman journalist by vice-minister of MOF.
  • Until 2017 it has been one strong and many weak situation in Japanese politics, but from 2018 the situation has drastically changes; governability of Abe administration looks like in critical situation.

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