- Japanese population shrinking:
- Among various uncertain observation about Japan, there is one sure thing; the population of Japan is decreasing.
- According to the governmental forecast, the present 127 M decreases to 87M in 2060, and to 43M in 2110.
- Labor force 66M in 2013 decreases to 38M in 2060. (43% down)
- Decrease of population means decrease of domestic consumption.
- Japanese Population Growth:
1.00M born, 1.26M dead
- Chinese consumption:
- Population 11 times, car sales 4 times, beer consumption 8 times 0f Japan.
- C-J relation:
- It seems the worst time in the relationship of both countries after WWII.
- The author has experienced economic adviser of Beijing City, JiāngSū Shěng, Jílíng Shěng; also visited 27 out of 33 administrative regions.
- 北京市，江苏省， 吉林省；
1. A Big Issue of 1.4B Population:
- 3rd Plenary Session:
- 3rd Plenary Session of 18th Central Committee of CPC (2013/11):
Established 習近平 Xí Jìnpíng (elected President in 2013/3) & 李克強 Lǐ Kèqiáng leadership.
- 3rd PS of 11th CC 1978: Reform & Opening-up policy adopted by Dèng Xiǎopíng
- China Seven: NPC (National People's Congress) Standing Committee
- Xí Jìnpíng 2nd term administration: 2017-
- more aggressive policies are expected; against corruption, further market economic reforms, open approach to governance,
- Relationship with Japan:
- Power balance in East Asia.
- Domestic conflict with the vested rights.
- Carrier: 5th generation leader.
- born in 1953;
- 1969-75: (during the Cultural Revolution) Shǎnxī Province
- 1979: graduated Qīnghuá Dàxué (Chemistry)
- 1971: joined CYL (Communist Youth League)
- 1974: joined CPC (Communist Party of China)
- 1982–1985: Héběi Province
- 1983 to Secretary of the CPC Zhengding County Committee.
- 1999-2002: Governor of Fújiàn Province;
- 2002: Party Secretary of Zhèjiāng Shěng
- 2007: Party Secretary of Shànhǎi City.
- 2007: PSC (Politburo Standing Committee); Secretariat of CPC CC and President of Central Party School
- 2008: Vice President of PRC.;
- 2009: Central Secretariat; successor of Hú Jiǐntāo (leader 2002-2012);
- 2010/10: Vice Chairman of CMC
- 2012/11 18th CPC CC; General Secretary of CPC;
- 2013/3: President of PRC; Chairman of CMC (Central Military Commission) by 18th CC of CPC.
- his first speech as General Secretary was plainly worded and didn't mention of his predecessors.
- >Top Ad hoc policy coordination body:
- Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms; since Dèng Xiǎopín's 1992 'Southern Tour'.; utilizing more market forces, restructuring state-owned enterprises; relaxing one-child policy, abolishing the laogai system (re-education through labor.'
- Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of CPC[
- National Security Commission
- coined the phrase 'Chinese Dream'; cherish the glorious youth, strive with pioneer spirit, and contribute their wisdom and energy to the realization of the Chinese Dream.
- Next leaders (18th CP of CPC)
- 汪洋 (Wāng Yáng, born 1955); CP of CPC; one of four Vice Premiers of China
- 孙政才 (Sūn Zhèngcái, born 1963); CP of CPC; Secretary of Chóngqìng City
- 胡春华 (Hú Chūnhuám born 1963); CP of CPC; Secretary of Guǎngdōng Shěng; Secretary of CYL (2006-08)
- Other leaders;
- 王岐山 (Wáng Qíshān, 1948); 18th PSC of CPC; Financial economist
- 李源潮(Lǐ Yuáncháo, 1950); 18th CP of CPC; VP of PRC (2013)
- Above leaders are mostly experts on Japan; being able to maintain good C-J relationship unless political frictions between two countries.
- 統一口径 (Tǒngyī kǒujìng); comments almost same opinion.
- 民工 (Míngōng); farmer labor; 民工潮 (Míngōngcháo) massive influx of rural laborers into town.
- CF: Pay difference of City labor vs. Farmer labor:
- City labor in Shànghǎi: average monthly pay; RMB 1,450/mo (RMB1≒¥16)
- Income support: R570/mo (R6,840/y)
- Rural area in Henan Province; average RMP3,000/y
- Income support; R300/mo in case of income RMB1,500/y; ie. R3,600/y
- Shànghǎi City must pay such farmer labor in Shanghai R6,840/y)
- Present urban ratio is 52%, which will be 60% by 2020; meaning 14M farmer labors will flow in city. (民工潮)
- If such trend of increasing farmer labors flow continues in the next decade, which required additional RMB40T investment in cities.
- Major issues in China:
- To maintain stable economic growth:
- To promote gradual decentralization of power: say, dividing six regions, having 230M each.
- As the member of National People's Congress is 3,000; each region will have about 500.
- Chairman of CYL (1993-98)
2. A Big Issue of Economics:
- From world factory to world market:
- China is striving to aim domestic demand oriented economy.
- Hitherto economics has been pulled by active investment in social infrastructure such as road, railway, and buildings on state-owned lands.
- Japanese investment in China (JETRO)
- 'Fixed assets formation ratio' in nominal GDP:
- Japan (1973): 36.4%
- Korea (1991): 38%
- China (2012); 46.1%
- Chinese over capacity of production:
- Crude steel production:
- Over production in China; Supply-Demand gap was 190M tons in 2012 (double of 2005, which is almost double of Japanese production of 110M tons)
- Present data shows that China produced 717MT by 976 MT tons capacity; meaning about 259 MT stockpiles or export capacity.
- Automobile industry:
- Over capacities in other industries are mentioned; such as cement, glass, PV panel, automobiles.
- Declining impact of Japan in Chinese market:
- Japanese car sales share: 25.8%/2008 declined to 16.4%/2012
- EU, Korea, ASEAN countries are active in investment.
- Chinese economics:
- GDP growth (real)
- Trade volume (2013):
- $4.16T; world No.1 volume in trade of goods.
- Time lag of each economic development:
- >Top Japanese High Growth Period: (typically 1965-1975)
- Japan →20 years later Korea →then 20 years later China
- Japan (1955-73) growth; 9% (real), or 15.7% (nominal); GDP grew Yen 10T to Yen 110T (more than 10 times)
- Japan (1973-1990) growth; 4.6% (real), but GDP grew Y110T to Y440T (4 times)
- Wage growth; 15-20% annually, then shifted to domestic demand centric economy.
- Wage differentials: Group employment from rural areas to cites; then annual income levels had been Yen 40-50K in rural areas, but 130-140K in urban areas per annum. (3 times difference)
- Agricultural population rapidly shifted to industrial population.
- There were lots of moral hazards in Japan such as pollution, corruption, cozy relationship issues.
- Labor dispute; 5,200 in 1974; even large company carried out strike.
- Chinese High Growth Period:
- China (1978-2010) growth; 9.6%; GDP grew RMB 0.38T to R40T (more than 100 times)
- Wage growth; 10-20% annually (2011 is double of 2006 level)
- Labor dispute; 12 times; mostly wildcat strikes
- Chinese infrastructure:
- High Speed (Bullet) Railway: 8,951 km (as of 2012), aiming to extend up to 16,000 by 2015; Cf: Japan 2,388 km
- International Freight Train (China Land Bridge) ; China - Silk road - Central Asia - Europe；Chóngqìng - Düsseldorf (or Duisburg) 11,179 km in 16 days;
- Daimler and BWM established companies in Chóngqìng mostly due to easy logistics between China and Germany.
- Gauge： 1435mm (4 ft 8.5 inch); USSR 1520mm; while, Japan uses 1067mm (since 1872)
- Chinese government spends double in constructing infrastructure than defense budget.
- Lesson of The Plaza Accord:
- The Plaza Accord: US, UK, France, Germany, Japan agreed to depreciate US dollar against Japanese Yen and German Deutsche Mark by currency coordinated intervention on 1985.9.22 at the Plaza Hotel in NYC.
- As the effect, US Dollar was devaluated nearly half; thus Japanese yen was upvaluated to around ¥150 from ¥235 in a year.
- Upvaluation of currency pressured by US would been a good lesson for the present China; Chinese Yuan is also pressured by US to upvaluate drastically.
- But economics is a kind of creature; it is necessary to pay attention of side effects inn taking medicine.
- Abrupt change of currency value may cause bubble economy; and whose sudden collapse and continuing deflation. (probably due to 'Money Illusion')
- >Top FTZ (Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone) :
- established in Shanghai area in 2013/9; 29 sq.km aiming second Hong Kong
- free zone of deregulated finance, investment, trade, legal system.
- adopted 'negative list'; other than the negative list, the activities in the zone is free. In particular:
- Deregulation of finance;
liberalization of RMB, interest, cross-border financial transaction, establishing foreign banks and J/V banks.
- Deregulated services;
banking, medical, leasing, transportation, international freight, telecommunication, game software, legal service, credit research, travel, manpower recruiting, investment management, process design, construction, entertainment, HRD, etc.
- Deregulated procedure of international trade;
custom clearance, quarantine, logistics, office headquarter function, etc.
- New Laws applicable to foreign companies.
- Government administration; basically from prior licensing system to ex post facto monitoring system, using IT networks.
- Shanghai FTZ is a frontrunner model; if this were successful, similar FTZ plans might have been extended; continuing seven FTZ are proposed.
- Shadow banking issue:
- Possibility of collapse of Chinese Shadow Banking:
- Interest in China:
- Major banks' lending rate is 6%, while deposit rate is 3%
- Major banks need not to lend to risky projects.
- The lower limit of lending rate is restricted at 0.7 times of the standard rate, ie., 4.2%.
- The upper limit of deposit rate is 1.1 times of the standard, ie., 3.3%.
- Xī-Lǐ Administration deregulated such lower limit of lending rate.
- Municipal bond is not allowed in China; also major banks can lend up to 70% of the total deposit amount.
- There are various kinds of 'Shadow Banking' in China, such as mutual financing (or credit) associations.
- The author estimates the lending amount of such shadow banks are about RMB 10T (Yen 160T), which is 16% of the total GDP in 2014 (Yen 1000T)
- Even if all such loans of shadow banks became bad loan, the loss would be 16% or 20% of GDP at most.
- Chinese public debt is RBM 7.8T of the central government, and R 22.2T of local governments, totalling R 30T (=Yen 480T) as of end of 2012, which is accidentally equal to Japanese GDP of 2012.
- The public debt of local governments was R 10.7T in 2010, which became double to R 22.2 in two years.
- Comparison of national debt of China is around 20%, while Korea is 40%, and Japan is 170%.
- There is some risk of Chinese public debt, but is still governable range.
- Is China becoming aging society?
- In China in 2012, 16.35M are newly born, and 9.66M are dead.
- In Japan inn 2012, 1.03M are newly born, and 1.25M are dead. (more serious)
- Expenses for education:
- In 2013 Chinese budget, expenses for education is R 2.30t (17% of the total); 3 times of military expenses.
- In Japanese budget, 3.6% (average OECD 5.4%)
- Trade Amount:
- In 2012 trade amount: China is $3.9T; US is $3.9T; Japan is $1.7T
- 粗鋼生産量(M ton, 2013)
China land Bridge
- World Trade Amount Ranking (2012, $B): Source WTO
3. A Big Issue of Regions:
- Divisions of Chinese areas:
- 22 Provinces (省 shěng), plus Taiwan Province (台湾)
- 5 Autonomous regions (自治区 zìzhìqū);
- 4 Municipalities (直辖市 zhíxiáshì);
- 2 Special administrative regions (特别行政区 tèbié xíngzhèngqū); 香港，澳门
- Mr Niwa as an ambassador visited and met the top of 27 major provinces out of 33, who was almost the most traveled ambassador.
- About 380 sister cities between C-J; mutual youth visit exchanges are particular important.
- Governors are appointed by the Central government, and Secretary of the region was by the Central Committee of CPC.
- Leader's career path:
- Secretary of Regional Committee of CPC, or Governor of Province
(Secretary is No.1 and Governor is No.2 of the region, both are the gateway to success of the future key persons)
- Politicians of Regional Committee have daily contacts with local residents, and with minority ethnic groups.
- Regions retain various state-owned enterprises.
- To promote innovation in regional state-owned enterprises is to govern the secretary of province.
- 陸昊 (Lù Hào) who is now governor of Hēilóngjiāng Province is the typical elite; who used to be the former First Secretary of CYL. He will be appointed as the Secretary of the Regional Committee, then is expected to function nearly 30 years at the central stage.
- Long-viewpoint to observe function of the next generation leaders, who may work now in various regional offices.
- Niwa style of management:
- bottom up centric; hands-on approach hands-on decision making
- Person-in-charge of all 33 regions of China in the Japanese Embassy.
- 2012/12: Sudden visit to the communal grave for the late Japanese during WWII at 方正县 Fàngzhèng Xiàn County, Hēilóngjiāng province, just before leaving China as the ambassador
4. A Big Issue of Minority Ethnic Minority Groups;
- Ethnic minority groups: 8% of total population (135M), equals to 110M; nearly same population of Japan.
- Total 56 Ethnic Groups:
- 18 Major Minority Ethnic Groups (>1M)
- Preferential measures are taken for minority groups; such as
- School education by the local language
- Public infrastructure of the region
- Preferential treatment of University entrance
- Exception of one-child policy (even marriage with Hàn zú)
- Ex: 傅莹 (Fùyíng); female press secretary; vice foreign of PRC; Mongolian.
- 2009/7/5 Ürümqi riots; Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR)
- 3,000 protest demonstration changed into serious accident, dying 197 people died, or more.
- World Uyghur Congress; exiled independence group
- The violence was planned or spontaneous.
- 45% Uyghur and 40% Han
- 2013/10/28: Tiananmen Square suicide attack by car: five people died by this indiscriminate terrorism.
- 2014/3/1: Kunming Statio attack, Yunnan Province; 29 civilians died.
- 烏魯木斉 (Ürümqi, Wūlǔmùqí), capital of Xinjiang, meaning 'beautiful pasture' of Mongol:
- Major hub on the northern route of Silk Road since Tang Dynasty, and developed as a commercial center during Qing Dynasty.
- Population: 3.1M ; most remote city from sea (2,500km) in the world.
- the center of the China Western Development Project.
- China-Eurasia Expo, annually held.
- Local industries in Urumqi:
- Xinjiang Guanghui Group (新疆广汇集团) is the largest real estate enterprise and most powerful privately owned company in Xinjiang.
- China CITIC Bank Mansion (中信银行大厦), headquarters of Guanghui, located in one of the CBDs (Central Business District) in North Xinhua Road.
- Youhao Group (友好集团); Maison Mode Urumqi (乌鲁木齐美美百货), opened notable department stores since 2008.
- The Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone (UETD) located in the northern Toutunhe District.
- Goldwind: Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. is a wind turbine manufacturer headquartered in Urumqi;
- 2nd largest wind turbine maker in China and 3rd largest in the world.
- Other makers: Vestas (Denmark), Siemens, Enercon (De), Gamesa (Sp), & Guodian, Sinovel, Ming Yang (China)
- installed capacity of 19 GW wind power plant.
- Permanent Magnet Direct Drive (PMDD); 1.5MW and new 2.5MW
- Partner German 'Vensys'.
- Xinjiang University in Urumqi.
- Kashgar (喀什市 Kāshí):
- oasis city with 500K residents; westernmost Chinese city near Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; one of the best preserved traditional Islamic city.
- Sunday bazaars; vegetable & fruits; silk and carpet made in Hotan (和田, or )
- less industrial and fewer Han residents.
5. A Big Issue of China-Japan Relationship:
Anecdote of behavioral differences between C-J-K countries:
- Senkaku Islands, or Diaoyu Islands (钓鱼岛) issue:
- uninhabited and controlled by Japan in the East China sea.
- 1971: Transfer of administrative control from US to Japan.
- Sovereignty over the the territory is claimed by PRC and Taiwan; China discovered and owned it since at least 1534, while Japan owned since 1895 until the surrender of WWII.
- 2012/9/11: Japanese government nationalized the islands by purchase from private family.
- Ambassador Niwa offered his serious opinion to MOF, to be more prudent on this delicate matter.
- Open dialogue is needed:
- Stand chatting talk (without sitting down) on the delicate matter should be avoided, particularly top to top meeting. (2012/9/9 Hu Jintao and Premier Noda during ASEAN conference at Vladivostok; Who arranged such top meeting?)
- 600 scheduled events commemorating 40th anniversary of C-J normal relationship since 1972 were canceled due to this accident.
- It is widely mentioned that the negotiation in 1972 between Premier Tanaka and Premier Zhōu Enlái; "I have agreed to shelve on this matter." (Shelving policy)
- Contact windows are actually closed, and even the staff of Japanese Embassy could not meet easily with key Chinese persons, as well as obvious decrease of mutual visit of both pubic and private sector;
- Generally territorial dispute is most difficult to solve by other means than war.
- There are 120-130K Japanese expatriates, who are worrying about the present situation.
- Mutual benefit and strategic relationship:
- Mutual benefit: means mutual agreement is benefit, while mutual quarrel is damage.
- Strategic relationship: consider the matter from long-term viewpoint, because both countries cannot change their location or vicinity; 'Freezing the situation' or 'Time out' would be one of the best solution for the moment.
- Concurrently, it should start to negotiate immediately:
- Crisis management; to avoid military action,
- to find a way of sea rescue, and
- fishery agreement.
- Then, to recover normal bilateral economic relationship starting from the following themes:
- to reconfirm normal economic relationship, separating from political disputes.
- to restart peoples frequent comings and goings, particularly youth exchanges
- to activate city-to-city communications using 380 or more sister agreements.
Soft power matters:
- How to check a bridge to cross a river:
- Japanese proverb says, "Look before you leap" (literally saying, knocking a strong stone bridge before crossing.); excessively caution in decision.
- Korean challenge to cross the bridge, which is even broken.; challenging it, neglecting some risks.
- Chinese date to cross the river, even there is no bridge.; bold enough to challenge it without considering any risk.
98% of Chinese don't know Japan:
- science and technology; particularly education
- design and manufacturing goods which are sufficiently effective, safe and credible based on ubiquitous education even in working level field.
- various culture including corporate culture, management know-how and HRD, etc.
- To accelerate technical transfer of such Japanese soft power to China, followings arrangement would be urgent for both countries (probably more important than TPP negotiation): US and Korea have already started negotiation with China.
- investment agreement
- intelligent property protection agreement
- It is really abnormal that the top political leaders could not have direct meeting; but it would be rather easier to have a meeting in a third country or at multinational conference (G20 or ASEAN, etc.).
- Stagnation of political relations may affect that of economic ones; in particular Japanese trade with state-owned enterprises.
- It is obvious no single politician of both countries has an opinion that C-J should make a war, as far as Mr. Niwa met with. All of them share opinion that both countries should promote principle of mutual coexistence and co-prosperity. But actually almost all have done nothing to endeavor to recover it.
- At least, "No-war pledge on Senkaku Islands" is urged. We should recall what happened at Sarajevo before WWI; only one gunshot triggered WWI.
- Tourist to Japan counts 3.4 - 3.5M annually, which numbers 35M in a decade.
- 2% of Chinese population is about 28M. Thus, almost 98% of Chinese know neither Japan nor visiting Japan; no knowledge about Senkaku Island in dispute between two countries.
- Japanese youth activities in China dispatched from JICA are quite useful and effective for bilateral relations; ODA for such activities should be maintained.
6. A Big Issue of Security
- Important diplomatic chronology:
- 1956: USSR Nikita Khrushchev: Peaceful coexistence policy with the West
- 1961: USSR Yuri Gagarin: the first astronaut
- 1962: China-Japan agreed LT Trade.
- 1962: China-India Border dispute
- 1964: China; the first A-bomb test
- 1969: USSR-China Border dispute
- 1971: China became a permanent member of Security Council of UN
- 1972: US Nixon sudden visit to China
- 1972/9/29: Kakuei Tanaka - Zhou Enlai joint communicate regarding establishment bilateral diplomatic relations. (C-J relationship and following Asian economic development has started from this agreement.)
- 1976/1/8: Zhou Enlai (1898-) died
- 1976/9/9: Mao Zhedong (1893-) died
- 2013/2: Obama and Abe meeting 2 hours over lunch
- 2013/6: Obama and Xī a meeting 8 hours in 2 days at Sunny land village in US
- 2013/11: China set up ADIZ including the area of Senkaku Islands.
- 2013/12: Abe worshipped Yasukuni Shrine; US conveyed disfavor message on this.
- 2014/1: An Junggeun memorial opened at 哈尔滨 (Ha'erbin) station, who assassinated Urobumi Ito in 1909.
- 2014/5: Vietnam vessel collided against Chinese one.
- Change of economic power balance since 1972:
- US/Russia/Japan are declining
- China/Korea/ASEAN are emerging
- China/Korea/Taiwan are approaching
- Japan-China, Japan-Korea relations are deteriorating
- US-China, EU-China relations getting stronger than Japan.
- Possible war between hegemony power vs. emerging power: (11/15 became war)
- Close relationship US and China
- 2012 4500 students from 135 countries; 582 from China, and only 5 from Japan.
7. A Big Issue of Japan:
- Statistics of Education:
- University going rate: Australia 96%, US 74%, Korea 71%, Japan 51%, China 35%; Japan is 24th out ot 34 countries.
- Number of university students: (1990 - 2009 comparison)
Japan 730K ->680K; China 290K -> 2,620K
- Budget for education: (GDP ratio)
Japan 3.6%; OECD av. 5.4%; US 5.3%; Korea 4.9%
- Number of engineers:
China 1.59M; US 1.41M; Japan 0.65K
- Scientific Doctrate holders:
US 33K; China 27; Japan 8K
- Population is decreasing: 260K annually (1.00M born, 1.26M dead)
- Increase of irregular employment: 35% of all laobors are temporary employee and/or part-time staff; counting 18.13M
- Drastic decrease of HRD:
Yen 2,800B (before 2008); 350B (2014) 12% of before Lehman shock
- Change of mindset:
- Lost of higer career aspirations:
Japanese youth tends to prefer; Only One than Number One.
- Ambition to rise;
Questionnaire to high school students wheather having higher career aspirations:
- Clearly YES: Chnia 37%; US 30%; Korea 19%; Japan 9%
- Fairly YES: China 52$; US 45%; Korea 54%; Japan 37%
- Clear or Fairly NO: China 9%; US 17%; Korea 27%; Japan 54%
- Secretly informing society:
- 2013/12/13 Secret Information Protection Law issued:
- Classification of secret information is ambigous and arbitrally decided by ministers.
- Annoymous betrayal society will be opposed to democracy.
Cf: 投資動向：出典JETRO 2014/1
- Invenstment from: (←)
- Spent for: (↓)
- For Eastern Provinces: 66%
- For Middle Provinces: 20%
- For Western Provinces: 14%
Reference: General Secretary of CPC (Cpmmunicst party of China): 88M members
||胡耀邦(中央委員会総書記);葉剣英(第12期5中全会で辞任); 鄧小平; 趙紫陽; 李先念; 陳雲
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||趙紫陽(総書記); 李鵬; 喬石; 胡啓立; 姚依林
||江沢民(総書記); 李鵬; 喬石; 姚依林; 宋平; 李瑞環
||江沢民(総書記); 李鵬; 喬石; 李瑞環; 朱鎔基; 劉華清; 胡錦濤
||江沢民(総書記); 李鵬; 朱鎔基; 李瑞環; 胡錦濤; 尉健行; 李嵐清
||胡錦濤(総書記); 呉邦国; 温家宝; 賈慶林; 曽慶紅; 黄菊(2007/6病死); 呉官正; 李長春; 羅幹
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||習近平(総書記, 59歳); 李克強(57歳); 張徳江(66歳); 兪正声(67歳); 劉雲山(65歳); 王岐山(64歳); 張高麗(66歳);
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