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One Asia Momentum

Asia is the future of the world and the future of Korea

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2011
#1415b

Chan Dae-whan

up 14806

Title

One Asia Mometum

一つのアジアを目指して

Index
Tag
Korea as coordinator; Pax Mongolica; 2008 Global financial crisis; Comprehensive Integration; Asia Sub-regions; G20; Regional Comprehensive Bodies; Efforts toward One Asia; Vision 2020; Learning from EU; Steps of Economic Integration; Export shares of C-J-K; Creating intra-regional demand; ACU; Love/Hate Relationship; One Asia TEE Paradigm; ASIASTAT; RESOTO Belt Zone; Erasmus-Program;
Why?
  • The center of economic gravity is shifting to East.
  • One Asia concept would be an unsolved problem to be solved in 21C. If it one considers it is too difficult, to whom this issue fall on deaf years.
  • 世界経済の中心は東に移動しつつある。(东风压倒西风)。
  • 一つのアジア構想は21Cに解決すべき課題であるそれが至難だという人には"东风吹马耳"だが...。
Original resume
Japanese resume
>Top

0. Prologue:

  • History brings with it risks and opportunities; Asians are now witnessing the turbulent current of history.
  • The economic hegemony that has been in the hands of the West for the past 500 years is now shifting to Asia.
  • The global financial crisis of 2008 marked Asia as the essential growth engine.
  • The side of ASEASN+3 economies will surpass that of US in 2014, and EU in 2020.
  • One Asia is like mosaic. A true mosaic is not possible with identical pieces.
  • If the trilateral China-Japan-Korea FTA is realized, the GPD of the three countries will reach US$10T, following EU ($16T) and NAFTA ($14T)
  • Korea could take role of coordinator or facilitator between advanced and developing countries, between Japan and China, being the only country in Asia signed FTA with both EU and US.

0. 序文:

  • 歴史はリスクとチャンスをもたらす
  • 経済の中心は過去500年間の西欧中心からアジアへシフト中
  • 2008の経済危機が分水嶺
  • ASEAN+3 (CJK)の役割大
  • CJKのFTAが実現すれば、世界第三の巨大経済圏
  • 韓国のコーディネータ的役割(南北、日中、欧米間)
>Top]

1. The world is watching - One Asia:

  • Pax Mongolica: build by Genghis Khan in 13C
    • The essential governing secret was pragamtism; "life for those who surrender, and death for those who resist"
    • Even after the Mongol empire collapsed, the tradition of pragmatism remained for hundreds of years; free trade, open communication, knowledge sharing, secular politics, religious coexistence, international law and diplomatic immunity.
  • Different civilization coexisted:
    • they did no know of other civilizations except for immediate neighbors.
    • Mogol Empire established relay stations 30km apart, opening trade routes across Eurasia.; commercial hub and assured the safety of the trading routes.
  • The Grand Standard Creator:
    • Unified writing system; Phags-pa scrip, created by Tibetan alphabet 41 letters.
    • Kublai Khan issue an edict to adopt the script as the official script of the empire, but didn't force it.
    • Great Yassa (Code) of Genghis Khan: banned a Mongol as a slave, abducting women, purchasing women for wedding, adultery, stealing; also equality under the law, nobody including himself was above the law
    • established a unified monetary system; using paper currency instead of using heavier metal currency or bartering, allowing each nation to continue minting coins.
    • Ogotai Khan, also established standardization of unite of measures and weight.
  • Freedom of religion and ideology:
    • The Romans forced conquered people to use Latin language, drink wine, use olive oils and grow wheat.
    • The British applied the Tudor style of architecture in Mumbai; similarly Netherlands, Spain.
    • Mongols guaranteed the freedom of religion; would not kill engineers among the prisoners of war.
  • One Asia in history:
    • Japan used the idea of Asian Solidarity, Japan-centric the Great East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere.
    • Sūn Wén: Chinese revolutionary and nationalist leader; advocate of Pan-Asianism.
    • Ahn Joong-geun in 1910; Korean patriot, wrote 'A treatise on peace in East Asia'; vision of Asian United Nations.
  • Asia as the Grand Trend of today:
    • past 700 years since the fall of Genghis Khan: the rapid rise of Asia:
    • Four dragons: Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong soar shortly before China and India started to wake up.
    • Japan, once declared itself not a part of Asia, was also turning its eyes to Asia.
  • Asia, the Mainstay of the global economy:
    • Asian population; expected to grow by 749M (2007-2025), and 487M (2025-2050)
    • Purchasing power; 37% of world GDP, 27% of international exports.
    • Growth most of Asian countries 5% (China 9%), far above 2% of advanced countries.
    • World center of gravity was shifting eastwards.
    • By 2012, China becomes the world largest manufacturer for the third time in 250 years, following UK and US.
    • China is likely to exceed US by 2020 to become the world largest economy
  • 2008 Global financial crisis:
    • The 2008 crisis gave Asia a chance to confirm it was emerging; growth rate in 2009 US -2.4% and EU -4.8%, while China 7.3% and India 8.7%.
    • The Economist magazine; 'Asia's astonishing rebound'
    • Asian GDP will outpace G7 GDP by 2030.
    • Fiscal condition of emerging Asian countries (except Japan) remains solid and healthy.

1. 世界が注目する一つのアジア:

  • パックス・モンゴリカ:13C
    • 諸文明の共存
    • 元の統治方式
    • 宗教の自由
    • 貿易・金融
    • 新たな法体系
    • 統一的な書法

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • 日本中心の大東亜共栄圏構想
    • 岡倉覚三:
      東洋の理想、茶の本

 

  • 元朝後700年後

 

  • 世界経済の中心
    • アジアの人口
    • GDP (ppp) 世界の37%
    • GDP成長率
    • 2012: 中国は製造国1位
  • 2008の世界経済危機
    • アジアにチャンス到来
    • 欧米の低迷に対し、中印の好調
    • 2030 :アジアのGDPはG7を抜く
    • 財政も健全
>Top

2. The road to One Asia:

  • Comprehensive Integration including Cultural, Security and Economic Community:
    • two contrasting trends at the same time; Global Community and Regional Community.: Globalization is accelerating the regional community.
    • Asian Union pursues comprehensive integration that includes collective Security Cooperation, Cultural Exchange and Knowledge Sharing, as well as Economic Integration within the region.
    • ASEAN+3(CJK), or ASEAN+6 (CJK+IAN)
  • Overview of Asia Pacific Regional Community: <Fig>
  • Asia's current standing:
    • Asia is certainly diverse. That very diversity could become the source of a creative synergy.
    • The sense of togetherness, and believing that Asia can work together.
    • Ethnicity:
      Human evolution: Out-of-Africa hypothesis: around 100K years ago and migrated to different regions of the world.
    • Modern humans migrated our of Africa about 70K years ago to Asia; then 50K years ago, they settled along the ocean in the southern part of India; further to the East and settled in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines and reach Pacific islands.
    • People who moved towards the north to China and Korean peninsula.
    • Geography: from Turkey to Siberia and Japan.
    • Asia Sub-regions:
      1. Northern Asia; Siberia from Pacific rim to Ural mountains
      2. Central Asia; Mongolia, Xīnjiāng Uyghur (新疆维吾尔) of China, Tibet, Kazakhstan, etc.
      3. Southwest Asia; Arabic region characterized by Islam, nomadism.
      4. South Asia; India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives
      5. Southeast Asia; 10 ASEAN countries
      6. East Asia; China including Taiwan, Korea (both), Japan
    • Political structure:
      • Japan, Korea: fully developed democracy
      • China, Vietnam, Laos; socialist structure and market economy
      • Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Myanmar; unique authoritarian political system
      • Japan, Thailand, Cambodia; constitutional monarchy system; Brunei monarchy political structure; North Korea, totalitarian regime though not a monarchy.
    • Religion:
      • noted for religious diversity. Confucianism, Buddhism, Islam, Christianity, & Hindu, etc.
    • Language: as diverse as the number of ethnic groups.
      • China has 80 different languages and 30 different writing systems.
      • India has 14 different official local languages; English is used as a common language.
      • Singapore has four official languages, Chinese, Malay, Tamil, & English.
      • Hong Kong: English, Mandarin, & Cantonese.
    • Currency;
      • Japanese yen is used and accepted in major tourist destinations.
      • Chinese yuan is being circulated in the global market.
  • Common Asian values:
    • tend to value the spiritual world
      • mental power over physical power; the wonders of the human mind.
      • Zhuāngzǐ, Chinese philosopher; a butterfly in a dream; "I cannot tell if I was a man dreaming I was a butterfly, or if I am a butterfly dreaming I am a man."
      • Confucian tradition; honors loyalty to the family and nation, and patriarchal and relatively authoritarian sense of order; great importance of social discipline, industriousness, commitment to education, pursuit of achievement, diligence, thriftiness and obligation to the community rather than individualism.
      • But Asian valued suddenly came under attack since 1997: blamed for sleazy, nepotism, cliques, corruptive bureaucratic systems, and inefficiency; also unconditional loyalty to the family and organization had been an excuse to justify an authoritarian government.
      • But again, Asia demonstrated its unique resilience and showed signs of recovery from 2008 crisis faster than any other region of the world.
    • Wisdom of the West:
      • Seven pillar of Western wisdom: 1) free market, 2) science & technology, 3) meritocracy, 4) pragmatism, 5) culture of peace, 6) rule of law, and 7) education.
  • Scope of One Asia:
    • Define its relationship with US, which is refusing to give up its hegemony in Asia.
    • One Asia is pursuing a community with pliability, instead of a rigid exclusiveness.
    • Security integration of this region is impossible if US is excluded.
    • Four conditions of One Asia:
      1. Define the territorial scope of Asia.
      2. Create added value; too much emphasis on width without consideration of depth weaken centripetal force.
      3. Geographically close to each other to form a mutually complementing relationship.
      4. Institutional (systematic) framework
    • EAFTA (East Asia Free Trade Area) ; ASEAN+3 framework
    • CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia); ASEAN+6 framework, suggested by Japan.
    • Ultimate choice will be either EAFTA or CEPEA.
    • Australia and NZ are part of One Asia as well: regionally from Europe, are very different from the other Asian culture.
    • US is located on the American continent, consequently raising fundamental question as One Asia.
    • Taiwan and Hong Kong; addressed separately depending on its relationship with China.
    • 21 members of APEC; summit conference in Yokohama in 2010.; FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) vision
    • ASEANA+3 CMIM (Chiang Mai Initiative Multi-lateralization); a regional self-help financial mechanism designed to provide liquidity; amounting $240B (100%); contributed by China & Japan each $76.8B (32%), ASEAN $48B (20%), Korea $38.4B (16%),
  • G20 (2010): >Top
  • # Nation GDP ($T) Growth (%) Current A/C
    ($B)
    Current A/C /GDP %

    1

    US 14,256 3.3 -466.5 -3.2
    2 Japan 5,068 2.5 166.5 3.1
    3 Germany 3,353 0.9 200.2 6.1
    4 France 2,676 1.4 -51.3 -1.8
    5 UK 2,184 1.4 -50.3 -2.2
    6 Italy 2,118 0.9 -58.3 -2.9
    7 Canada 1,336 3.6 -44.2 -2.8
    8 China 4.909 10.5 269.9 4.7
    9 India 1,236 9.5 -44.1 -3.1
    10 Korea 833 6.1 26.0 2.6
    11 Indonesia 539 6.0 6.4 0.9
    12 Turkey 615 6.3 -38.0 -5.2
    13 Saudi Arabia 370 3.7 29.1 6.7
    14 Australia 997 3.1 -29.8 -2.4
    15 Russia 1,229 4.3 69.8 4.7
    16 Brazil 1,574 7.2 -51.8 -2.6
    17 Mexico 875 4.6 -11.6 -1.2
    18 Argentina 310 5.4 6.0 1.7
    19 South Africa 287 3.2 -15.2 -4.3
    20 EU 16,447 1.3 21.3 0.17
    • 1963: G10 finance ministers conference; G7+Sweden, Netherlands, and Belgium
    • 1973: G5 after Oil Shock conference by Giscard d'Estaing and Helmut Schmidt; ; US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, later joined by Italy and Canada. (G7)
    • 1998: invited Russia (G8); but still lack of representation of emerging countries such as China and India.
    • 1999: inaugural meeting in Germany; G20 member countries accounts for 85% of the entire GDP and 80% of the trading volume; five members from Asia; Japan, China, India, Korea, and Indonesia.; International organization such as IMF, IBRD, ECB (European Central Bank), and IMFC (International Monetary Financial Committee) participate in G20 conferences as observers.
      • First Group; oil rich countries; Russia, Saudi Arabia
      • Second Group; trade surplus countries; Germany, Japan, Korea
      • Third Group; newly emerging countries with trade surplus; China, Argentina, Indonesia
      • Fourth Group; advanced countries with trade deficit; EU, US, UK, Australia, Canada)
      • Fifth Group; newly emerging countries with trade deficit; Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, & others.

2. 一つのアジアへの道:

  • One Asiaの統合レイヤー:
    • KS+CE+SC+EI

One Asia KCSE

 

  • アジアのサブ地域
    Asia Sub-regions:

asia subregion

 

  • 主要国地域のGDPと人口:
    • 中国: $7.0T (1,348M)
    • 日本: $5.9T (128M)
    • ASEAN: $1.9T (599M)
    • India: $1.8T (1,223M)
    • 豪州: $1.6T (22M)
    • 韓国: $1.2T (50M)
    • 台湾: $0.5T (23M)
    • 香港: $0.3T (7M)
    • NZ: $0.2T (4M)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • G20登場 (2010)
    <左表>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>Top

3. One Asia leading the world:

  • Individual countries' position on One Asia:
    • Great China region (includes Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) the integration efforts are in dynamic motion. China and Tawan signed ECFA (The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) in 2010.
    • Singapre and Malaysia where the overseas Chinese are taking dominance over the economic sector.
    • The biggest oncern in their effort to solidify Sino-influenced countries is US.
    • China is so supportive of the integration of ASEAN+3 is in par to check and contain the growing influence of US and India over Asia.
    • Japan favors ASEAN+6 with an objective to curb China's power in Asia. Japan is also heavily gearing towards APEC; even after a significant loss of power since the emergence of G20, reflects the reality Japan is face with at present. ; Japan hosted APEC Sumit in 2010.
    • ASEAN: thin arrows being hard to break when held together.; GDP of ASEAN is about $1.8T, a third of Japan.; GMS (Greater Mekong Subregion); role of casting vote for the integration of Asia in the future.
  • US; trying to protect its interest in Asia.
    • Barack Obama spoke about his backgrounwa was rooted in Asia.
    • Meeting with 21 APEC leaerder, He called for to import more US goods and rely less on exporting to US; 5% US increase in exports to Asia Pacific nations would create haundreds of thousands of jobs in US.
  • Regional Cooperative Bodies in East Asia: <Fig.>
  • ASEAN Plus
  • Efforts toward One Asia:
    • 1961: ASA (Association of South-East Asia; Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia; denotion of ASA dueto Chinese Cultural Revolution and independence of Singapore.
    • 1976: ASEAN5 founded: ASA + Indonesia and Singapore
    • 1989: APEC21 founded, including US and ASEAN, led by Australia
    • 1990: EAEG (East Asia Economic Group) proposed by Mahathir of Malaysia; intentionally excluded US and eventually caused breakdown; (East Asia Economic Caucus)
    • 1992: ASEAN Free Trade Area; lowering intra-regional tariffs
    • 1994: ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) founded
    • 1994: ASEAN Bogor Declaration; free trade and investment initiative in ASEAN
    • 1996: ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting) began
    • 1997: ASEAN+3 Leaders conference began
    • 1999: ASEAN10 expanded; Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia joined; morphed into an economic cooperation organization.
    • 2000: CMI (Chiang Mai Initiative) launched
    • 2001: 5th ASEAN+3 Summit in Brunei; leading role played by Kim Dae-jung (FAFTA, Free Trade Agreements in East Asia)
    • 2005: EAS (East Asia Summit) launched; ASEAN+3 in addition to Australia, NZ, and India
    • 2007: ASEAN Charter signed, and went into effective (2008)
    • 2009: CMIM Agreement signed; setting up a joint fund
    • 2009: Lee Myung-bak proposed New Asia Initiative; Hatoyama vision, East Asian Community
    • 2009: The first meeting between US and ASEAN10
    • 2009: Asian-Pacific Community proposed by Australian Kevin Rudd
    • 2010: Vision 2020: in Jeju Island, Trilateral cooperation among C-J-K, proposing permanent secretariat. (50 consultative mechanisms, including summit meeting, 17 ministerial meetings)
  • Viosn 2020 covers:
    • policing authorities, pusuit of FTA and economic integration, cooperation of climate change and environmental protection, person-to-person exchanges, resolving nuclear issues of N-Korea, preventing drug traficking, etc.
    • 2009: Lee Myiung-bak proposed the establishment of a permanent secretariat; Science & Innovation Cooperation in natural disaster management, IT technologies, prevention of pollution, epidemic, & climate; also CAMPUS Asia pilot program, government employee exchange program, green economy seminars.
  • Asian countries are still wary on hidden intentions of C-J whenever they make moves.
  • >Top Learning from EU:
    • 1952: ECSC (European Coal & Steel Community)
    • 1953:n Eurostat established
    • 1957: Treaties of Rome signed; EURATOM (European Atomic energy Community) and EEC6 (European Economic Commnity) signed; France, W-Germany, Italy, Belgium, Luxemburg, Netherlands.
    • 1958:★ <1st stage>: abolishment of tariffs and quotas;
    • 1967: EC (European Communiteis) signed
    • 1968: CCT (Common Customs Tariff) adopted
    • 1973: Denmark, Ireland, and UK joined EC. (EC9)
    • 1973-86:★ <2nd stage>: FTA and PTA (Preferential Trading Arragement)
    • 1979: The first elections to European Parliament.
    • 1981: Greece joined (EC10)
    • 1985: ★<3rd stage>: Common Market; free movement of production factors (goods, services, capital, & labor); unifying technological standards, public procurement, subsidy, VAT, etc.
    • 1986: Spain and Portugal joined (EC12)
    • 1990: Schengen Agreement signed: abolishment of border controls and passport inspections.
    • 1992: Treaty of Maastricht on EU; integration of economy and currency; EU ratified (1993)
    • 1993: ★<4th stage>: realize economic and currency union.
    • 1994: EMI (European Monetary Institue) founded
    • 1995: Sweden, Finland, and Austria joined (EU15)
    • 1998: ECB (European Central Bank) established
    • 1999: Common currency Euro established
    • 2000: ★<5th stage> Treaty of Nice signed; expansion measures for central & eastern Europe.
    • 2002: Euro notes & coins circulating in EU12.
    • 2004: Poland, Hungary, Czech, Slovakia, Sovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cypus, and Malta joined EU25
    • 2004: Constitution for EU signed; President & Foregin Minsiter of EU created
    • 2007: Bulgaria and Romania joined (EU27)
    • 2009: Treaty of Lisbon; becoming the United States of Europe; selection or President of European Council; Belgian PM Herman van Rompuy welcted new EU president, and UK's Trade Commissioner Catherine AShton as EU foreign policy chief. (Kissinger's question was answered?)
    • xxxx: next agenda; establishment of EU common military.

3. 世界を牽引する一つのアジア:

  • One Asiaへの動向

 

  • 米国の動向

 

  • One Asiaへの努力

 

 

 

 

 

  • 東アジアの様々な地域協定
  • New Movement! AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)
  • Initial Member (as of 2015/1)
    • China
    • ASEAN10
    • India, Pakistan, Srilanka, Nepal
    • Mongol, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
    • Kuwait, Qatar, Oman
    • UK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • One Asiaへの努力

 

  • ビジョン2020: CJK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • EUの教訓

 

 

  • 中・日の隠れた意図
>Top

4. Many aspects of One Asia

  • Process of building One Asia:
    • Establishment of an economic cooperation network:
      • free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor.
    • Negative side effects of economic integration
  •   2010 2020 2030
    GDP share %: Asia/World 24 32 41
    Labor force in Asia (100M) 30.8 35.1 38.8
  • One Asia in economic terms:
    • Companies can enhance competitiveness by economy of scale; consumers can enjoy a better quality of life.
    • Steps of economic integration by Bela Balassa (Hungary economist):
      1. Free trade area
      2. Custom union
      3. Common market
      4. Economic union
      5. Complete economic integration
  • Structural problems of East Asian economy:
    • High dependence on foreign trade:
      • ASEAN+3, Hong Kong and Taiwan was about $7.13T (2007), accounts for 25% of world trade.
      • Exports alone count $3.74T, 27% of world export.
      • Intra-regional trade of ASEAN+3 increased from 28.6% (1990) to 37.4% (2008).
        Growth is mostly attributed to the trade of intermediated products, such as parts and materials.
      • However it is lower than those of EU (64%) and NAFTA (40%)
    • Changes in the export shares of China-Japan-Korea: <Fig.>
  • exportshaes_cjk
    • % of intra-regional trade is increasing in Japan and Korea.
    • it has been continuously decreasing in China since 1996; 25.4% (1996) fell as low as 12.6% (2009)
      this trend have resulted from China's incessant exploration of new market outside of Asia.
    • East Asian countries tend to be vulnerable to the economic conditions of US and EU; especially in investment and manufacturing, because of its high dependency on the final demands from outside the region.
      • US shows 9% dependency on export, while most East Asia over 30%.
    • Financial crisis 1998 gave Asia to realize how risky to depend so heavily on the West.; they need to increase demand from intra East Asian region.
    • Weakness of East Asian financial market; the size is extremely small compared to the size of their economy.
      • Their investment is mostly geared toward US government bonds: capital drainage overseas.
  • Creating intra-regional demand is the key:
    • Only one choice for us: an increase in domestic demand.
    • Change its export-driven economic growth pattern and increase intra-regional demand to become a more balanced Asia; should driven by the market, not by government decisions.
    • ABMI (Asia Bond Markets Initiative), first proposed by Korea in 2003, was put into practice in 2010.
      • reflux Asian capital in the Asian market.
      • a proactive measure to prevent a financial crisis in advance
    • CGIF (Credit Guarantee & Investment Facility); to support ABMI are in progress.
      • CGIF has received capital contributions of $700M until now, acting as the affiliated fund of ADB (Asian Development Bank); China & Japan contribute $200M, Korea $100M, and ADB $130M respectively.
    • ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement); China and Taiwan signed ECFA, equivalent FTA; "Chiwan = China+Taiwan" by abolishing trade barriers after 61 years of discord.
      • Taiwan is adopting a more accommodating approach in their relationship with China.
      • ECFA overlap with products Korea export to China; including automobiles, parts, petrochemical products, machinery and electronic appliances.
  • >Top ACU (Asian Currency Unit):
    • Specific action for ACU; 1) introduce a common currency policy to stabilize the regional exchange rates, 2) establish an Asian monetary fund, 3) the infrastructure for bond trading, 4) and a monetary stabilization committee.
    • The next process: 5) allow the value of monetary unit against dollar, 6) Asian currencies are to be fixed to the value of ACU, 7) launch a single monetary system
  • Concept o International Finance Center:
    • there have been many attempts for currency cooperation in East Asia:
      • Internationalization of Yen
      • Asian monetary fund
      • Chiang Mai Initiative
      • Common bond market of CJK
      • A3 Currency Reserve Fund, or A3 Monetary Union; (CJK ratio: 4/4/2) of $200-500B; CJK version of euro zone
    • Issues:
      • It is inevitable for each country to forsake some of their economic sovereignty (currency policy) including consumer price, opening of markets, and fiscal balance.
    • Effect of Asian Currency Union:
      • Positive effects:
        decrease of transaction costs, stabilization of consumer prices, expansion & specialization of financial institutions due to financial market integration, reduced interest rates due to stronger competitiveness
      • Negative effects:
        Some countries in the region will find it very hard to adjust their economic cycle by suing their own currency and monetary policy.
      • Role of central bank as the last resort significantly reduced.
      • Banks of a given country suffer from a liquidity crunch will have difficulty in securing badly needed liquidity assistance.
  • Process of a Common Currency:
    1. Launching of AMF (Asian Monetary Fund)
    2. Establishment of a monetary committee; fixed rate against US$
    3. Launching of ACU and fixed rate against US$
    4. Fixed rate of the currency of each country against ACU
    5. Circulation of ACU; operating the variable exchange rate system

4. 一つのアジアの特質:

  • One Asia創設のプロセス
    1. 自由貿易地域
    2. 関税同盟
    3. 共通市場
    4. 経済統合
    5. 完全な経済一体化

 

  • 東アジア経済の構造的問題

 

 

 

  • 中日韓の輸出シェア変化
    <左図>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • 域内の需要増加が鍵

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • アジア共通通貨(ACU)構想

 

  • Cf: Proposal of AIID (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) concept: an internation financial instituion propoed by China, aimign similar function like IBRD or ADB.
>Top

5. One Asia Action Plans:

  • 1997: EAC (East Asian Community) inter-governmental negotiation started, when ASEAN+3 was born
    • with the aim of PPP (Peace, Prosperity and Progress)
    • soon came to a halt due to the differences of opinion between China and Japan regarding the scope of member countries.
    • very sensitive about leadership and practical interest.
  • TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership):
    • US is advocating establishment of TPP along with Australia, NZ and Japan, as an alternative to Asian integration
    • TPP is an agrement similar to the combination os ASEAN and APEC.
    • The biggest hurdle is Chinese negative view on creation of TPP.
  • Unsolved political issues:
    • Korea-Japan: 1) territory (Dokdo, or Takeshima); 2) naming of the sea (East Sea or Japan Sea); 3) military Korean comfort women; 4) Distorted history; like Yasukuni enshrined major war criminals of WWII, etc.
    • China-Japan: 1) territory (Diàoyúdǎo, or Sengaku islands), 2) Distorted history; like Yasukuni enshrined issue and Nánjīng shìjiàn, etc.
    • China-Taiwan conflict
  • Narrowing the gap efforts:
    • ODA: World average 0.49 ODA/GNI (Gross National Income) %, while G7 countries 0.28& and EU 0.46%
    • GMS (Greater Mekong Sub-region) development project;
  • Sustainable growth:
    • Asia is following an unbalanced growth model that is not sustainable; export-oriented growth
    • Increase of domestic consumption urged; China less than 38% of GDP, Japan 55%, lowest among advanced countries.
    • Domestic consumption in Asia; 60% of GDP in 1980s, but less than 50% in 2007.
    • Expand regional consumption market; less vulnerable to external economic shocks.
  • North Korea issue:
    • Dependency on China; 39% in 2005, 53% in 2009.
    • nuclear weapons program
  • Freedom of Press:
    • Most Asian countries, except for NZ (8th) and Japan (11th), Australia (18th) were not ranked in the top 100 countries among 178 surveyed countries.
  • KOF Index for Globalization: measuring three main dimensions of globalization:
    1. Economics; actual economic flows and restrictions
    2. Social; data on information flows, data on personal contact
    3. Political; data on cultural proximity
  • Core of One Asia C-J-K:
    • Niall Ferguson, Harvard; Asian integration must be preceded by the integration of East Asia, instead of the integration of ASEAN;
    • EU, first formed by only six countries.
  • Love/Hate Relationship:
    • C-J-K share a cultural identity that is more intimate than any other region of the world.
    • Common bond using Chinese characters for writing.
    • China uses simplified Chinese characters, and Korea invented Hangul, Japan invented Hiragana and Katakana in writing.
    • C-J-K share a cultural identity that is more intimate than any other regions.
    • Unfortunate historical experience from the Cold War;
    • If C-J-K combined; accounts for 22% of world population 20% of world GDP, and 17.5% of world trading volume, and each $11T GDP following EU $16.4T, and NAFTA $14.2T.
  • Statistic on national strength of C-J-K: ($B, 2011)
    Category C-J-K World total Share %
    GDP 14,008 70,012 20.0
    Foreign Exchange Reserve 4,783 9.701 49.3
    Trade Volume (2011: 1-9) 4,732 26,910 17.5
    Population 1,525 6,978 21.9
    Defence Budget 201 1,630 12.3
  • trade volumes of C-J-K: ($B, 2011)
  •   China Japan Korea Total
    Trade Volumes 3,642 1,673 181 5,496
    Intra Trade Volumes To Japan To China To China 1,369
    343 345 221
    To Korea To Korea To Japan
    246 106 108
  • C-J-K expanding investment of Government Bond:
    • promoting inter-regional investments, thereby lessening excessive investment on US treasuries.
  • >Top Action Plans:
    • One Asia TEE Paradigm: stands for Trust Economic Freedom, and Entrepreneurship, which is a result of all the following indices.
      • <Trust> 21 indices including: 1) Transparency of government, 2) Corruption and bribes, 3) Labor relations, 4) Employee training, 5) Protection of stock holders's right, 6) Transparency of financial institutions, 7) Credibility of managers, 8) Sock values, and 9) Quality of life
      • <Economic Freedom> 39 indices including: 1) Tax/GDP percentage, 2) Legal & regulatory frames, 3) Bureaucracy, 4) Protectionism, 5) Competition regulation, 6) Product & service regulations, 7) Labor regulation, 8) Foreign investment regulation, 9) Foreign investment incentives, and 10) Transfer of industry-academic knowledge.
      • <Entrepreneurship> 26 indices including: 1) Corporate taxes, 2) Cost of capital, 3) Venture capital, 4) Openness, 5) Corporate establishment, 6) Flexibility of people, 7) Cultural openness, and 8) Others.
    • Gradual integration:
      • From the lessons of EU, we need to achieve regional integration gradually, such a realizing the economic integration first and then moving on to political and cultural integration.
      • We have to realize Asian integration through such agreements as
        • CMIM (Chaing Mai Initiative Multilateralization funds
        • increased role of ADB
        • establishment of Credit Rating Agencies in Asia
        • Asian Monetary Fund
      • We an cooperate by creating diverse organizations;
        • Asian Health Organization
        • ASIASTAT: (Cf: EUROSTAT, statistics first related to coal and steel, later provide national statistics.) This ASIASTAT needs to include North Korea.
        • Asian Business School, etc.
      • Professor Yoo Janghui's proposal: Fellowship, Education, Environment, and Liberalized Trade as the four values we should promote jointly.
      • MRA (Mutual Recognition Agreement), which is a cross-certification and cross-recognition system
      • SIJORI (Singapore, Johr in Malaysia and Riau islands in Indonesia), these three cities are divided by borders.; they realized free movement of labor, capital and natural resources.
      • BESOTO Belt Region; (Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo); proactively discussed and pursued during 1990s; become the hub of regional economy and industrial logistics. <Fig>
    • Leader ship Program and fostering of future leaders:
      • 2009 Asian version of the Erasmus-Program; (Erasmus Program if EU's student exchange program)
      • develop a common curriculum, and mutually recognize student credits.
      • Asian Business School and Law School
      • Asian Medical School
      • SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)
      • AI
      • Asian Data Center; Cloud computing
    • Establishment of C-J-K Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat:

5. 一つのアジアへの行動計画:

  • EAC

 

  • TPP

 

  • 未解決の政治問題

 

  • 溝を埋める努力

 

  • 持続的成長

 

  • 北朝鮮問題

 

  • 報道の自由

 

  • KOF Index

 

  • 愛情と憎しみの関係

 

 

  • C-J-Kの基礎指標:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • One Asia TEEパラダイム

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • 段階的な連携

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • BESETOベルト帯:

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • ASIASTAT統計データ:
  • BESOTO ベルト地帯

BESOTO

  • Erasmusプログラム:域内学生交流計画

 

 

 

Comment
  • The road to One Asia should be pursued just like 'Think globally, act locally" viewpoint.
  • And it is better to promote projects having specific themes with getting flexible participants including younger generation.
  • I recalled my personal experience participating C-J-K Open Source Software Cooperation Meeting in around 2005 held in Seoul, where English was the common language; and it was very impressive that to see a Taiwanese expert lead one of working groups representing China, as well as Koreans achieve a consensus of the debate between China & Japan with their fluent English.
  • One Asiaへの道のりは、正に"着眼大局着手小局"の視点で推進しなければと思う。
  • そしてより具体的な特定テーマの案件を若手を含む柔軟な参加者を得て進めるのが良い。
  • 個人的には、オープンソースでのC-J-K国際協力会議(ソウル) に参加した経験がある。そこでの会議は英語だった。そしてある作業部会は、中国を代表して台湾の技術者が参加していたことと、韓国人が、日中間の論争を流暢な英語でうまくまとめていたことが印象に残っている。

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