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お金の
流れが
変わった

Global money flow has changed

New rules of global economy moved by emerging nations
Cat: ECO
Pub: 2011
#: 1408b

Kenichi Ohmae

14603u/18208r
Titile

global money flow has changed

お金の流れが変わった
 
  1. Collapse of the only superpower:
  2. When Chinese bubble economy will collapse?:
  3. Global economy tossed by huge homeless moeny:
  4. EU Empire - From expansion to defense:
  5. Emerging nations - hero in 21C global economy:
  6. Macro ecomic policy cannot function yet:
  7. The day when the market say a requiem for Japan:
  1. 唯一の超大国の崩壊:
  2. 中国のバブル崩壊はいつか:
  3. ホームレス・マネーに翻弄される世界:
  4. EU帝国 - 拡大から防衛へ:
  5. 新興国 - 21世紀の世界経済の寵児:
  6. マクロ経済政策はもう効かない:
  7. 市場が日本を見限る日:
Why
  • This book was written in Jan. 5, 2011, two months before Tohoku disaster and Fukushima accident.
  • The author summarized drastic change of money flows since 2000 correctly but the expectation about Nuclear Power.
  • 本書 は、2011.1.5に、東北大震災と福島事故の2ヶ月前に記述された。
  • 著者は、2000年以降のグローバルな資金の流れを正しく記述している。原子力に関する期待の部分を除いて。
Résumé
Remarks

>Top 1 Collapse of the only Superpower:

  • 2009: the term of G2 was prevailing. But the only superpower US is getting into evening twilight time, mostly due to the policy of Bush administration.
    • 2010/11 : Midterm election won by 'Tea Party' professing small & strong government.
    • Anti-Islam policy was basically wrong; Europe has learned the battle against Islam more than a millennium, and recognized it was unproductive.
    • 5% of population of UK, France and Spain was Islamic people.
  • 2008/9:
    • Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
    • NY DOW: dropped from $11,000 to $6500 in 2009/3
  • Socialistic policy of Obama administration:
    • injected public funds ($700B) not only to AIG, Citibank, BOA but also GE and Chrysler.
    • instructed UAW to do debt - equity swap of pension and labor debt.
  • Obama's feint policy:
    • 2009/5: stress test against major 19 banks in US, and disclosed 10 banks were capital shortage totalling $74.6B, including 33.9B to BOA, 13.7B to Wells Fago.
    • But this was a feint; excluding government compensation and other non-performing assets.
    • This was the feint policy which aims to call back global wandering $40T to US.
    • Alan Greenspan, Chairman of FRB, Robert Rubin, Secretary of Treasury; Laurence Summers, Secretary of Treasury; sold lots of high yield US bond.
  • CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation): a type of structured Asset-Backed Security (ABS); evaluated by the rating firm.
    • 'Global Equity Opportunities' attached with detailed prospectus.
    • Collapse of US housing bubble made such CDO as a junk bond.
  • US fundamentals: bubble economy; <Chart-1> by JETRO
    US Japan
    2010 2011 2012 2013e 2012
GDP Growth (%) 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.4
GDP Amount ($B) 14,958 15,534 16,225 16,720 5,960
GDP per capita ($) 46,811 48,328 49,922 52,800 46,736
Gross National Saving   11.4 12.5 13.5 2.3→0.8
CPI (%) 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 -0.1
Unemployment (%) 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.3 4.3
Current Account ($B) -449 -458 -440 -361 61
Foreign Currency Reserve ($B) 121 137 139   1,227
Export ($B) 1,289 1,496 1,561   801
Import ($B) 1,939 2,240 2,303   889
Foreign Debt ($B) 22,805 25,367 25,502   3,122
Receipt of Direct Investment ($B) 198 224 161   2
  • The end of US economic growth, which may cause shrinking global market.

1. 唯一の超大国の崩壊:

  • 2009: G2の構想
  • 2010：米国共和党中間選挙
    • 小さい政府要求
  • 反イスラム政策の誤り
    • 英仏西では5%がイスラム系
  • 2008/9 リーマンショック
  • オバマの社会主義的政策
  • フェイント歳策
    • 米国銀行へのストレステスト
    • 公的資金注入
    • 世界のホームレス・マネーの米国への還流

 

 

 

 

  • CDO

 

 

  • <左表1> 米国基礎指標
  • 対外債務：157% of GDP
  • 家計貯蓄率：
    • 日本急激に低下：2.3#/2011→0.8%/2012

 

>Top 2. When Chinese bubble economy will collapse?:

  • Chinese GDP: 70% Kyushu in 1989. But it drastically expand since 2003; exceeded Japan in 2010.
    • Japanese GDP has bee almost same level since 1994.
    • G2 motive powers in 1980s was US and Japan; but now is US and China.
  • Casting a cloud in Export since Lehman shock in 2008.
  • Hóng Hǎi shock: Foxconn Technology Group of Taiwan: one of world biggest EMS
    • Chinese labor cost: Vietnam x3; Myanmar x10
    • China is rapidly rapidly increasing domestic market: 20% in half year; changing export dependent (35% of GDP) economy to domestic orient one.
    • All Chinese land is state-owned: a lucky mallet!
  • Chinese typical economic growth:
    • Bullet train; started 2007; 3,500 km at 350 km/h; 8 planned lines totalling 12,000; 50,000 km within a decade.
    • Expressway: 85,000 km by 2011; increasing 6,000 km annually.
    • Steel production: 600M ton; Japanese peak was 150M ton in 1980s.
  • Chinese big companies: (market capitalization；mega-cap)
    • Petro China (中国石油天然气)
    • Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (中国工商银行)
    • China Mobile (中国移动通信)
    • Bank of China (中国银行 yínháng）
    • China Petroleum & Chemical (中国石油化工)
    • CNOOC (China Offshore Oil, 中国海洋石油)
    • Chine Life Insurance (中国人寿保险)
  • Strategic M&A:
    • Chinese Fund (SWF, etc) invest mining and agriculture related companies.
  • Chinese harmful influence:
    • excessive decentralization; expropriation of land at present cost and resell it to developers.
    • Chinese hidden income other than tax and national bond
  • Kashgar (喀什 Kāshí); Westernmost Chinese City; aiming to be the second 深圳 Shēnzhėn.
    • Pakistan (Gwardar port) Kashgar Pipeline project.
    • Coexistence policy with Islam world
  • Real estate bubble in China:
    • US: loan to subprime borrowers; 10M vacancy
    • Japan: loan of 8 - 10 times of annual salary
    • China: loan of 20 -30 times, or even 100 time of annual salary; 70M vacancy
      • Loan for the first house: minimum down payment 30% or more
      • Loan for the second house: minimum down payment 50% or more and interest rate 110% of the normal
      • Loan for the third house: drastic increase of conditions

2. 中国のバブル崩壊はいつか？:

  • 中国のGDP
    • G２の意味：1980年代と現在
    • 保八(bǎobā)→保7.5政策？
    • 中国輸出に陰り
  • 鸿海ショック：富士康 (Foxconn)
  • 公共投資
    • 新幹線：８路線で12,000km 予定
    • 高速道路：85,000 km

  • 中国の時価総額大企業
    • Mega-cap
    • 資源重視のM&A

 

  • 新疆ウイグル開発
    • パキスタン〜カシュガル：パイプライン
    • イスラム世界との共存政策

 

 

  • 中国の不動産バブル
    • 地方政府による土地収用
    • 年収の20-30倍以上の購入
    • 不動産融資条件

>Top 3. Global economy tossed by huge homeless money:

  • Homeless money:
    • appeared in 21C. $60T at the peak period; about $40T after Lehman shock.
    • 2009 Duba shock
    • 2009 Greece crisis
  • Occurrence of Homeless money:
    • Excessive liquidity policy
    • Less demand due to aging society and affluent production.
  • Oritign of Homeless money:
    • Surrplus funds from OECE courntries, such as Norway, Sweden, Canada, Australia, US, Germany, UK;
      • lower interest rate caused homels money to pursue higher yield
    • Oil dollar, due to higher oil price; ME and Russia
    • China money: foreign reserve of $2.7T
      • China $3.8 in 2013; about 60% be in US$ base. (Cf: Japan; $1.3T)
        • Fund operation or money game n in overseas; collaboration with Blackstone.
  • Attractive emerging nations: investing countries with big population, higer education, and less natural resources
    • Target-1: Emerging market like Peru, Egypt, Turkey, India, Nigeria
    • Target-2: Commodity market: Au, Ag, Cu. Sn, Mo, Textile, Rubber,
    • Target-3: Energy; Oil; Biomass: Brazil maze, Rumania, Ukraine.
    • Target-4: REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust); like in Moscow, Sofia, Kief, Bucharest, Istanbul

3. ホームレス・マネーに翻弄される世界:

  • ホームレスマネー：
    • 21Cの登場

 

  • ホームレスマネーの起源
    • OECDの過剰流動性・高齢化
    • オイルダラー
    • 中国マネー

 

  • 魅力的な新興国

 

>Top 4 EU Empire - From Expansion to Defense:

  • 2008.9: The rule of global economy has changed.
    • IMF support by SDR rather than US$
    • Japan persisted in US$10T.
      • :Iceland; Estonia; Latvia; Rumania, Poland; Hungary; Ukraine
    • Reasonable basket currency: US$/Euro/Pound/¥ should be 40/40/10/10
  • 2009.12 Lisbon Treaty:
    • EU became a nation;
    • GDP $16T (bigger than US $15T)
    • Population: 500M, 1.5 time of US (317M)
  • New member candidate: Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Servia, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus.
  • 2009/11: Greece crisis:
    • EU rule of fiscal balance: Financial deficit less than3% in a single year, less than 60% cumulative years.
    • Greece:13% single year of GDP, 135% cumulative years.
    • 2009.12. Greek bond by Fitch ratings: from A- to BBB+
    • Financially Supported by German and French banks, who owns about 70% Greek bond.
  • Possible economic collapse:
    • 'PIIGS': Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain
    • 2010 UK Cameron Conservative-Liberal coalition government; promoting restructuring program to avoid 'PIIGGS'; called Mr. 10%
    • Germany could sustain Portugal, Ireland and Spain
  • European Central Bank (ECB): in Frankfult
    • Reserve: $557b
    • Has counter-inflation measure. But not have counter-hedge fund or arbitrager.
    • Hedge fund possible attack: $10B x leverage 30 = $300
      • 1992: Pound crisis; Geroge Soros vs BOE
      • 1997: Asian Currency Crisiss; Jurian Roberson vs Thai Central Bank (Thai Baht)
    • Cf: Other reserves: China $2447B; Japan $1043B; Russia $491

4. EU帝国 - 拡大から防衛へ:

  • 2008.9:
    • リーマンショック以降、グローバル経済のルールが変わった
  • EUリスボン条約
    • 国家としてのEU再編

  • EU加盟候補国
  • 2009.11
    • ギリシャ危機
    • PIIGS

 

  • EU; ECBの役割

 

>Top 5. Emerging Nations - Hero in 21C Global Economy:

  • 2001: 'BRICs' by Goldman Sax: Brazil, Russia, India, China
  • 'VISTA': Vietnam Indonesia, South-Africa, Turkey, Argentine
    • 'VISTTTAC' = VISTA + Thai, Colombia
    • 'NEXT11' by Goldman sax: Iran, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Korea, Turkey, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico
    • 'VITAMIN or 'VITTAAMIIN'= Vietnam, Indonesia, Thai & Turkey, Argentina & S-Africa, Mexico, Iran & Iraq, Nigeria
  • Fund managers don't know the details of such emerging nations
  • Long-term pension funds in Canada, Norway, Singapore, etc. as well as US and Japan; totalling about $10T
    • Global money flows from private to private sectors
  • Global Economy Irony: new global money flow emerged since the last 5 years.
    • OECD economies: aging trend of society causes excess liquidity.;
    • the impact of public investment is limited.
    • Boosting economy by lowering interest rate and excess liquidity has no more impact, which is 20C type of money policy. Matured economy need not so much money flow.
    • It is a kind of 'Viagra' effect which affects only short-term boosting.
    • Active immigration policy such as Singapore, Australia, and US may be possible.
  • Japan:
    • Household financial assets amounts around $14T from $7T (Now it is said $16T)
  • Emerging nations' favorable conditions:
    • Internet: cyber education, foreign languages
    • Risky but attractive yield for the global fund; risk decreases according to economic development, which gives virtuous cycle for long-term fund.
    • Success models of 30 - 50 years ago of OECD
    • HR: young workers & lower wages
    • Chiwan activities: Eg. Hóng Hǎi group in Taiwan
    • BOT (Build, Operation & Transfer) mechanism
  • Live in OECD, but fund operation in emerging nations
  • Global excess money amounts around $80T; in which $40T are homeless money.
  • Growth of Market Value: 200812 -2010/10 (%); <Chart-1>
Advan. Australia 96 NIES Singapore 137
UK (LDN) 93 Korea 115
Europe 42 Hong Kong 102
US (NY) 39 Taiwan 98
Germany 14 ASEAN4 Indonesia 249
Japan 11 Philippines 246
BRICs Russia 207 Thai 160
Brazil 154 Malaysia 102
India 151 L-Ame. Chile 146
China (SNH) 97 Peru 141
      Mexico 79
  • Features of emerging nations:
    • Indonesia: the largest Islamic nation composed of 500 tribes and 18,000 islands; market for UniCharm, Pokari Sweat, Kajima;
    • Thai: high tech industry, Nikon market
    • Malaysia: Islam/Chinese/Indian 60/30/10%; MSC
    • Philippines: Education-minded people; IT and Call center business, Computer security, and Accountant
    • Singapore: Intelligent leader, recruiting global top personnel (unlike Japan)
    • Turkey: language affinity with Hungary, Finland, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
    • Russia: People who like difficulty; Creativity & Designing of Bowing, Intel; BPO
    • Chile: Education-minded; mineral resources, wine.
  • Experts (hopefully 100, at least 10) who can understand emerging markets should be fostered in big companies.

5. 新興国 - 21世紀の世界経済の寵児:

  • BRICs
  • VISTA
    • VITAMIN or VITTAAMIIN
  • ファンドマネジャの行動パターン
  • 年金等長期資金の行方

 

  • グローバル経済の皮肉
  • 日本の個人金融資産：$16T

 

  • 新興国の優位性
    • 住むのは先進国、
    • 資金運用は新興

 

  • 世界の余剰資金は$80T、内ホームレスマネーは$40T

 

 

 

 

  • <表１> 株式市場での時価総額の伸び率

 

 

 

  • 新興国市場の専門家養成

 

>Top 6. Macro Economic Policy cannot function yet:

  • After Lehman shock, Aso administration supplemental budge amounting $150B.
    • This is a kind of 20C Keynesian macro economic policy such as change of interest rate and control of money supply.
    • $200 or 300B is enough as money supply in Japan, but actually 970B is circulated.
    • Such financial policies became useless in 21C borderless economy; higher interest can attract enormous homeless money from abroad.
  • Just-In-Time under cyber economy:
    • Communication is instant and transportation is within 24 hours anywhere worldwide.
    • Payment is also improved; electronic money, credit card, Pay Pal, and point card; Cash On Delivery is exceptionally prevailing in Japan.
    • No need of excess inventory.
  • JIT utilized services:
    • ZARA, Spanish apparel maker: holds 4, 780 shops worldwide and can delivery goods in 48 hours, which is combination Toyota's JIT and Fedex's transportation mechanism.
    • Everyday.com: Supermarket of home-deliver service
    • Rakuten Travel; App Store
    • Even education: SSR (School Social Responsibility); like TED
  • Multiple economy:
    • CDS (Credit Default Swap); AIG and LTCM suffered these risks.
    • CDO (Collaborated Debt Obligation); one of ABS (Asset Backed Security); a kind of poison gas (=subprime or junk bond)
    • PER evaluation; 20 times of PER may increase capital.
  • Features of Borderless economy:
    • BCM (Borderless, Cyber, Multiple)
  • House for retired life:
    • German, Swedish, or Russian rich people: buy such second house in better climate countries like in Spain, Croatia, Turkey, Dominic Republic
  • Japanese isolation policy against hostile takeover:
    • Mittal Steel to NSC
    • 2007/5: Steel Partners to Bulldog Source; 'Abusive Aquirer' or 'Green mailer'?

6. マクロ経済政策はもう効かない:

  • リーマショック後の日本の対応

 

  • サイバー経済下のJIT
  • マルチプル経済
  • ボーダーレス経済の特徴：
    • B (Borderless), C (Cyber), M (Multiple)
  • 日本の孤立政策
    • 敵対的買収に対する日本企業のアレルギー

 

 

 

>Top 7. The Day When the market say Requiem for Japan:

  • 2010 Budget by DPJ:
    • ¥92T composed by 37T by tax income, 44T by national bond, and 10T by hidden slush fund
  • Worst scenario:
    • Down rating of Japanese government bond; Eg: from AA- to BB+ or from stable to negative evaluation.
    • Default, Blocked deposit, Hyper inflation.
  • Enormous increase of National Debt (including National and Local): ¥1,199T in 2014.
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
52 57 61 67 69 69 72 75 73 70
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
70 69 74 80 86 95 102 109 122 136
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
144 154 164 170 181 186 186 183 192 210
2010 11 12 13 14          
216 230 237 243e 244e          
  • Maastricht Treaty say financial debt should be less than 3% single fiscal year or 60% cumulative years of GDP.
  • Greece 174%, Lebanon140%, Jamaica 140%, Italy 133%, Portugal 129%
  • How Government deprive financial assets from people:
    • Change of new national bond at 30% ratio against default bond. (2009 Argentine case)
    • Issue of new note at the rate of 80% of old note.
    • Block of deposit

7. 市場が日本を見限る日:

  • 民主党の2010年の予算
  • 最悪のシナリオ

 

  • 日本の公的債務の変遷：1980 -2014

 

 

  • マーストリヒト乗客では、単年度3%、累積でも60%以内。
  • 日本は世界一、その次は議事者174%、レバノン140%、ジャマイカ140%、イタリー133%など

  • 政府は個人金融資産を狙う
    • 新国債発行
    • 新札発行
    • 預金封鎖

>Top 8. Prescription for Japanse economic revival:

8. 日本経済の復活の処方箋:
Index
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