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The Clock of the Long Now

Time and Responsibility


Cat: ICT
Pub: 1999
#: 1405b

Steward Brand

UP 14507
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The Clock of the Long Now - Time and Responsibility

最も遅い時計 - 時と責任

 
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Why
  • The author name is referred at the speech of Steve Jobs at Stanford University in 2005 as the author of 'The Whole Earth Catalog' with the words of 'Stay hungry, stay foolish.'
  • On what type of time and space we are living?
  • この著者の名は、2005年のスタンフォード大学でのスティーブ・ジョブスのスピーチに中で、"The Whole Earth Catalog"の著者として、"Stay hungry, stay foolish"の言葉と共に紹介されている。
  • 我々はどのような時間と空間に生きているのか?
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1
: Notional Clock

  • How do we make long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare?
  • Large mechanical clock (like Stonehenge)
    • ticks once a year, bongs once a century, and the cuckoo comes out every millennium.
    • It would be charismatic to visit, interesting to think about, and famous enough to become iconic in the public discourse.
    • It would do for thinking about time what the photographs of Earth from space have done for thinking about the environment. Such icons reframe the way people think.
    • Deep future:
  • www.longnow.org: established in 01996
    • 10,000 year clock; thinking in 10,000 years terms is new to us.
    • Clock/Library in a city, and in a desert.
    • If we are willing to engage the processes of ceturies, because that is where the real power is.

1 概念的な時計:

  • 長期時計:1 秒針/年、鐘/百年、カッコウの鳴き声/千年
  • www.longnow.org; 01996設立。年表記を5桁にする。
  • 10,000年時計の設計
  • 10,000年の単位でモノを考えることは新鮮である。

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2: Kairos and Chronos:

  • Kairos: a propitious moment for decision or action; offers hope <G. literally 'opportunity'
  • Chronos: eternal or ongoing time; extends a warining; <G. 'time'
    • Our dead and our unborn reside in the realm of chronos
    • Kairotic seizures of the day murmurring warnings to us.
  • We owe the past humans our existence, our skills, and our not-bad world.
    • What do we owe the future humans? Existence, skills, and a not-bad world.
  • World population: now 6B; next 100 years 12.6B.
    • Living have greater impact on the unborn than ever; depletion of natural systems, atmospheric disruption, toxic residua, burgeoning technology, global markets, genetic engineering.
    • 'the greatest good for the greatest number' means the longest good, because the majority people affected is always yet to come.
    • We can do little good for our dead, but immeasurable good - or harm - to our unborn.
    • The worst of destructive selfishness in not Me! but Me! Right now!; the general opposite could be 'All of us for all of time'.
  • Responsibility:
    • Atmosphere and climate; delay between cause and effect can be 30 years; We are the first generation that influences global climate, and the last generation to escape the consequences.

2 カイロ (機会)とクロノス (時):

  • Kairos: 機会としての時
  • Chronos: 永遠の時を刻む時計
  • 世界人口:
    • 現在60億、今後100年には126億
    • 最大多数のための最大幸福は、長期的に良いこと
    • 最大の利己主義;今の自分

 

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3. Moore's Wall:

  • 1965: Gordon E. Moore; predicted that the number of component that could be fit on chip had double every year for six years.
    • the formula was later adjusted to preedit doubling every 18 months.
  • 1990x: Bob Metcalf:
    • the power of a network grows as the square of the the number of users on the net.
  • 1997: Monsant Corp;
    • The ability to identify and use genetic information is doubling every 12 to 24 months.
  • Klaus Schwab, head of WEF:
    • to a world in which the fast eat the slow.
  • Alan Kay:
    • Technology is anything invented since they were born.
  • Exponential change:
    • Old people and young people live in completely different time zones.
    • Exponential sequence: the changes no longer feel quantitative or qualitative but cataclysmic.: continuous discontinuous change.

3: ムーアの壁:

  • Mooreの法則: (摩尔mó'ěr 定率)
  • Metcalfの法則
  • Alan Kay:技術は彼らが誕生以後発明された何か
  • 冪乗的な変化:
    • 老若は別個の時間帯に生きている
    • 冪乗的な変化:変化は量的でも質的でもなく、大変動的(cataclysmic)、つまり連続的な不連続変化である

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4. Singularity:

  • Black hole; event horizon, singularity
    • Stephen Hawking; Singularity; the laws of science and our ability to predict the future would break down.
  • 1991, Vernor Vienne, "Across Realtime";
    • Singularity: a place where extrapolation breaks down and new models must be applied. And those new models are beyond our intelligence.
  • Singularity's leading mechanism:
    • Molecular engineering
    • Convergence of computer, biotechnology and nanotechnology; each accelerating the other.
    • All -embracing Internet
  • What may happen decades now:
    • not only unknown but unkowable

4:: 特異点 (奇点)

  • S. Hawkingのブラックホール:
  • Vernor VingeのSF
  • 冪乗的な波:
    • Exponential waves
  • 有限時間内に無限に達する冪乗:
    • Hyperexponential set reaches infinity in finite time
  • 特異点以後は予測不能:
    • Post-singularity situation difficutl to predict

 

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5. Rush:

  • Skydiving:
    • actually 'flying' during freefall?
    • the brain, emotionally high on adrenaline, runs much faster during freefall than when viewing the video afterward
    • The person just plummeted.
  • Imagine a world in which time seems to vanish and space becomes completely malleable:
    • where the gap between need or desire and fulfillment collapses to zero.
  • State with lotteries went from one in 1964 to 37 in 1997:
    • The number of addicted gamblers increased accordingly, along with the real crime, broken families, and suicide.
    • Gambling industry: buying government acquiescence and media silence
    • just a shriek of joy into the gale of freefall; opportunistic kairos and durational chronos

5: ラッシュ:

  • スカイダイビング:
    • 自由落下 (特技跳伞 tèjì tiàosǎn)
    • 頭脳は、後で見るビデオよりずっと早く落下
  • 時間が消滅し、空間が融けていくような世界を創造してみよう。
    • そこは必要と希望と充実との差がゼロになる世界。
  • ギャンプル公認州:
    • 1州/1964; 37州/1997
  • 機会を求めるkairosと連続的なchronos

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6. The Long Now:

  • How long is now, usually?
    • On the stock exchange it's today, on the Net it's a month, in fashion it's a season, in demographics a decade, inn most companies it's the next quarter.
    • The shortest new is performed in a Polish poem;
      • When I pronounce the word Future, the first syllable already belongs to the past.
  • Expand our idea of the present to 200 years
    • a 100 years forward, a 100 years back. A personally experienceable, generations-based period of time, it reaches from grandparents to grandchildren - people to whom we feel responsible.
    • 200 years is good; there is emotional comfort and behavioral discipline in it.
  • Civilization:
    • 10,000 years is the size of civilization thus far. In that time a number of civilizations and dozens of empires have risen and fallen or receded.
  • Agriculture:
    • By 8000 BCE (Before Common Era), the ice hade receded from most of the northern hemisphere.
    • By 7000 BCE in the Mideast, formerly nomadic tribes settle down around their new crops. Villages formed; some grew into cities, where civilization happens.
    • Around 1000 BCE, history emerged as another form of storytelling. Archaeology was able to revive stories and histories thought dead, such as ancient Egypt and the Mains.
  • Holocene: 10,000 years = 400 generations
    • Holocene (11700 BP, Before Present) interglacial i the current ice age.
    • The pharaohs started 200 generations ago (3000 BCE)
  • Astronomical terms:
    • Alley's comet: is only constant since 1759 CE.
    • 'Hale-Bopp': 1997 CE, previously seen in 2214 BCE. When it returns in 4377 CE, will anyone mention the name 'Hale-Bopp'?
    • Returning comments will let us know whether civilization is developing more continuity of knowledge or less.
  • the Great Year: 25,784 year cycle of the earth's axis pirouettes around near the Pole Star rotation of our galaxy: 240 my.
    • Human time frame is narrower than that of life of the planet or galaxies.
  • Long Now: treat the last 10,000 years as if it were last week, and the next 10,000 as if it were next week. Such tricks confer advantage.

6. 長期的な今:

  • 現在の長さ
  • 現在を200年=8世代に拡大
  • 文明: 10,000年= 400世代
  • 農業の始まり:8000 BCEから
  • 地質学:Holocene
    完新世 (沖積世)
  • 天文学:
    • 大年 (歳差年): 25,784年
    • Halley彗星76年周期
    • Hale-Bopp彗星1997年接近、2530年周期、次回の接近4400年
  • 10,000年の長期的視点

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7. The Order of Civilization:

  • Shocks:
    • All civilizations suffer shocks, yet only those that absorb the shocks survive
    • Components in a system that have different change rates and different scales of size. Some parts respond quickly to the shock, allowing slower parts to ignore the shock and maintain their steady duties of system continuity.
    • The combination of fast and slow components makes the system resilient.
    • Fast learns, slow remembers. Fast is discontinuous, slow is continuous.
    • Fast and small instructs slow and big by accrued innovation and occasional revolution.
  • Freeman Dyson's Six Time Scale:
    1. On a time scale of years, the unit is the individual
    2. On a time scale of decades, the unit is the family.
    3. On a time scale of centuries, the unit is the tribe or nation
    4. On a time scale of millennia, the unit is the culture
    5. On a time scale of tens of millennia, the unit is the species.
    6. On a time scale of eons, the unit is the whole web of life on our planet.
    • In order to survive, we have needed to be loyal to ourselves, to our families, to our tribes, to our cultures, to our species, to our planet.
    • Wise equilibrium between firm substructure and soaring liberty

7. 文明の順序:

orderofcivilization

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8. Old-Time Religion:

  • Mechanical clocks were first invented for monasteries in 13C. It was the monks who taught us to keep time.
  • From the perspective of the sacred, history is just one damned thing after another. At best it consists almost entirely of bad news. At worst it is sin. In any case it is illusion. The only good news, the only redemption, the only reality abides in transcendent timelessness, in the eternal. eternity is the opposite of a long time.
  • Judaism says; "the Messiah is going to come, and that's the end of history."
  • Christianity says; "The Messiah is going to come back, and that's the end of history."
  • Islam says: "The Messiah came; history is irrelevant."
  • Kevin Kelly, a devout Christian, of Long Now Foundation board spoke; "I go to church, but why am I here and not in church? It's because I feel that he Christian church denies the future. From year one, they have been waiting for the second coming. I think we need a story that includes the future.

8. 昔流の宗教:

  • 時計は、13Cに修道院で製作。
  • 宗教における歴史観
  • 最後の救済と歴史の終わり
  • Long Now FoundationのKevin Kelly曰く;キリスト教会のように未来を否定するのではなく、未来を含む物語が必要

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9 Clock/Library:

  • Ancient library of Alexandria:
    • there is a constant forward migration of the data to increasingly better and denser methods of storage.
    • What they began helped to teach people the value of knowledge over long periods of time. Whiteout it humanity might have obsolesced itself out of existence without being able to look over the ancient records of the sea and air and find trends that are only apparent over centuries or millennia.
  • Geologic time;
    • High desert of Southwest US: Looking up, you see a flight of shallow steps, each step carved from a layer of rock representing approximately 10,000 years of geologic time. after climbing one hundred of these steps, or one million years into the future, you are somewhat awed and belittled by the greatness of geologic time.
  • Clock and Library:
    • The Clock dramatizes the scope of historic time past and to come but offers no content.
    • The library is all content, especially past content with future significance.
  • Clock:
    • Clock is a way of bridging between stories, embodying respect for the full span of the old story and confidence in the gradual emergence of a new story. It is a transition-managing device.
  • Dark Ages:
    • After the fall of Rome formal learning disappeared for half a millennium.
    • in mid 12C, the lead was taken over by the new universities in reviving cities such as Paris, Bologna, and Oxford.
  • The Long Now Foundation guidelines:
    • Serve the long view (and the long viewer)
    • Foster responsibility; Reward patience; Mind mythic depth; Ally with competition; Take no sides; Leverage longevity

9. 時計と図書館:

  • アレキサンドリア図書館:
    図書館があければ、経験の記録がすたれる。
  • 地質学的時間:
    米国南西部の砂漠:1歩が1万年。100歩登ると100万年の未来へ
  • 時計と図書館:
    • 時計は歴史的な過去と未来の形を伝える
    • 図書館は、その中身を伝える
  • 時計:複数の物語をつなぐ物。変遷管理デバイス
  • 暗黒時代:ローマ帝国崩壊後、500年に亘って教育機関喪失
  • 12C初頭:パリ、ボローニャ、オックスフォードなどで新たな大学創設

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10. Ben is Big:

  • Big Ben; the world' largest accurate clock by Victorian technology; installed in 1959.
    • Other sublime technology; Eifel Tower, Hoover Dam, Golden Gate bridge, and Saturn rocket.
    • Big Ben is a sort of throbbing heart for British culture - calm, assured, implacable, accurate, enduring, and big.
    • The pendulum hang from a piece of 1/64 inch thick spring steel, which has to flex millions of times. It has only bee replace once since Big Ben was install.
    • TICK. TOCK. With every tick the tip of each 14-foot minute hand on the four clock faces advances a visible inch.
    • Each one-ounce penny
  • Reliable service: John Darwin remarks in The Triumphs of Big Ben: the repairs were intended to give the clock two centuries of reliable service before the next major overhaul. How different a future-oriented mechanism is from a mere monument. How much more alive.

10. ビックベンは偉大:

  • ビックベン:英国の文化の鼓動;静寂、確実、執拗、正確、忍耐、巨大

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11. The World's Slowest Computer:

  • Design a clock to keep good time for 10,000 years:
    1. Longevity: display correct time for 10 millennia;
      • go slow
      • expect bad weather, earthquake
      • human interaction; don't tempt thieves or vandals
      • power source: water/wind are too damaging.
      • tidal power, plate tectonic, geothermal, chemical, stored potential energy all scale badly
      • atomic and solar electric power are difficult to maintain
      • only temperature change and human winding survived the analysis.
      • human winding; it fosters responsibility and invites people's involvement.
    2. Maintainability: with Bronze-Age technology, if need be;
      • familiar materials; easy to build spare parts
      • allow inspection
      • rehearse motions (so seldom-moving parts don't freeze up)
    1. Transparency: obvious operational principles; expect restarts; include the manual; build it so that everything i intuitively obvious.
    2. Evolvability: improvable over time
    3. Scalability: same design from tabletop to monument size
      • make all parts of similar size, provide simple interface
      • separate functions - power, timing , calculation, and display

11. 世界最遅コンピュータ:

  • 1万年時計の設計
    1. 長時間稼働
    2. 保守性
    3. 運用透明性
    4. 進化性
    5. 拡張性
  • この条件は、現代の原発にも通じる。

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12. Burning Libraries:

  • The burning of libraries is so universally regarded as a crime against humanity.
  • the Library of Alexandria;
    • preserved Hellenistic Greek Renaissance, and the classics inspired 15C European Renaissance.
    • remained the intellectual capital of the Mediterranean of Roman Empire.
    • have held 600,000 scrolls (=120,000 modern books)
    • was a productive community of writers, translators, editors, historians, mathematicians, astronomers, geographers, and physicians, including Appollonius of Rohdes, Callimachus, Eratosthenes, Aristarchus of Samos and Hipparchus; Homer, Plato, Athenian play writers, Hebrew Bibles.
  • Who burned the Library of Alexandria?
    • 88 BCE: Ptolemy VIII torched the city in a civil war.
    • 47 BCE; Julius Caesar set fire to the Alexandrian fleet, which set fire to parts of the city.
    • 273 CE; Roman Emperor Aurelian reconquered Egypt, burning the part of Alexandria.
    • 645 CE: Muslim conqueror Calipha Omar: if they contain matter not in accordance with the book of Allah, there can be no need to preserve them.
  • Religious bigotry did twice, on purpose. We are right to grieve.
    • Only one in ten of the major Greek classics survived. Nothing like Alexandria's library was seen again for 1000 years.
  • Cultural arsons:
    • 213 BCE: Shih Huang-ti (Qín Shǐhuáng): burn all books except agriculture, medicine and fortune telling.
    • 1933: Hitler's book burining ceremonies; Hitler's 1000-year Rein lasted just over 12 years.
    • Theoretical purity; total break with the past;
      • 16C: Spanish Conquest missionaries burned the condices of the Mayans.
      • 1789: French Revolution
      • 1917: Russian Revolution
      • 1966: Chinese Cultural Revolution
      • The Americans severed the political bonds with the Old World but not the cultural bonds.
  • Burning libraries is a profound form of murder, or suicide.
    • Burning the Amazon rain forest burns the world's richest library of species.
    • Accumulated past is life's best resource for innovation.
    • Reinventing beats inventing nearly every time.

12. 図書館炎上.:

  • アレキサンドリア図書館炎上
  • 宗教的言明
  • 文化への放火:
    • 革命という不連続性
    • 過去の文化的連続性と政治的非連続性
  • 図書館への放火は、広義の殺人あるいは自殺行為

 

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13. Dead Hand:

  • Respect for the past can be overdone.
    • Christians preferred to be buried in the sanctified ground of the graveyard.
    • Nathaniel Hawthorne wrote; after visit to British Museum, "I do not see how future ages are to stagger onward under all this dead weight."
    • Walter Hines Page; "" Fling off the dead hand of the past!"
    • Goethe wrote; ""America, you have it better than our old continent; you have no ruined castles and no primordial stones. Your soul, your inner life remain untroubled by useless memory an wasted strife."
  • Compartmentalize the past;
    • Goethe, "Writing history is a way of getting rid of the past."
  • A new version of the problem is coming
    • the amount of accumulated past is accelerating. Each new US president leaves behind more papers to be preserved than all the previous presidents combines.
  • Digital media:
    • can store absolutely everything.; traditional role of the l librarian and curator become obsolete; to select what is to be reserved and ruthlessly wed out everything else.
    • Tim Berners-Lee comments; the Web is like being overloaded by he mass of a beautiful countryside, you don't have to visit it, but it's nice to know it's there. Especially the variety and freedom.
  • People were either pastless or trapped in the past.
    • Their lives were as beautiful and tragic and stupid as waves breaking on the beach.

13. 死者の手:

  • 過去への尊敬は過大になり過ぎる
    • クリスチャンは聖地に埋葬されたい
    • 大英博物館の印象:「未来はこれらすべての死の重みにたじろうがないのか]
    • 過去の死の手を振り払え
  • 過去を区切ること
    • 歴史を記述することは過去と断絶する一つの方法
  • 新たな問題の発生
    • 新たな米国大統領は、過去すべての大統領を合わせたようりも多くの記録を残す
  • デジタルメディア:
    • デジタルは記録の全てを保存し得る。
    • しかし保存しているだけで安心して誰も振り返らない。
  • 人々は過去の否定か過去の拘泥かのいずれか

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14. Ending The Digital Dark Age:

  • Digital information is forever:
    • Jeff Rothenberg, RAND researcher; "Digital information last forever - or five years, whichever comes first."
  • Digitized media's attributes:
    • great clarity: a bit can be zero or one
    • great reliability: can be error-checked
    • great economy: digital storage is essentially free
  • Now obsolete application:
    • embarrassed by the reemergence of perfectly preserved email, etc.; but the same people cannot revisit their own word processor files.
    • now obsolete application
    • now obsolete OS and long-vanished make of computer, now antique storage medium
  • The technology is just as constantly self-obsolescing
    • the great creator is the great eraser.
    • everything written on them was written on the wind, leaving not a trace
    • everything we want to keep can be preserved perfectly forever, the reality is precisely the opposite.
  • Storage and preservation:
    • Digital storage is easy; digital preservation is hard.
    • Preservation means keeping the stored information catalogued, accessible, and usable on current media, which requires constant effort and expense.
  • Write once, run anywhere:
    • Bill Joy, Java's creator; a Rosetta Stone;
    • Aliens,or a sufficiently smart human, could eventually figure it out because it's an implementation of itself.
    • Write once, run anytime
  • Exercise is the best preserver;
  • Digital industries;
    • must shift from being the main source of society's ever-shortening attention span to becoming a reliable guarantor of long-term perspective.
    • to anticipate the Year 10,000 problem.

14. デジタル暗黒時代の終わり.:

  • デジタル情報は永久か
  • デジタルメディアの特徴
    • 明快性
    • 信頼性
    • 経済性
  • すぐ陳腐化するアプリ
    • メールが読めない
    • アプリが陳腐化
    • OSもコンピュータも陳腐化
  • 技術とは本来自己陳腐化するもの
    • 偉大な発明は偉大な消去
    • 風に書かれた文字
  • 貯蔵と保存
    • デジタルの貯蔵は容易だが、その保存は容易ではない。
  • 一度書けばどこでも読める。
    • それを一度書けばいつでも読めるようにすべき
  • 練習は最善の保存
  • デジタル産業
    • 社会の短期化から長期保存への信頼性へ

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15. 10,000-Year Library:

  • Taking 10,000 years of future seriously is an interests undertaking.
  • 10,000 years is an extremely long view, a period in which there are likely to be profound cataclysms requiring many-leveled renewal.
    • could be an intellectual adventure as challenging as space travel.
  • What might be the best time-spanning, future-engaging categories to collect?
    • History and historiography
    • Archeology and paleontology
    • Environmental books
    • Science fiction
    • Science and technology books
    • Demographic and epidemiological texts
    • Long Now special interest on libraries, clocks, and durable institutions.
  • What has been done, thought, written, or spoken is not culture; culture is only that fraction that is remembered.
  • Location:
    • vast underground complex hewn out of rock
    • Escape from the present is also escape from relevance.
    • The structure of power used to be the structure of successful lying. But no one can make it stick, because anyone can challenge the lie directly and make their case with multiple links to corroborating sources.
  • Metcalfe's Lawa of exponential growth of the Net is proving to be even more significant thatn Moore's Law of exponential growth of microchip capability.
    • The chip is an individula's tool; the Net is society's tool.
  • Time Capsule;
    • in Antarctic icee -60ºC: seeds, spores, human and other reproductive cells, human mother's milk, DNA, rainwater, seawater, air, and soil
    • on the Moon -230ºC; a stable, durabel site, easily accessible from space, with a good view of grandmother Earth.
  • Languages:
    • of 15,000 to 20,000 distinct languages once spoken two-thirds are extinct, and the pace of loss is incresing.
  • Problem:
    • the problem everyone has is that you never know what will be treasured later.
    • Stone tables; we would value the stones more if the monks had simply recorded the weather and what they were eating.

15. 一万年図書館:

  • 1万年後の未来を考えることの意義
  • 1万年は超長期。
    • 宇宙旅行の計画のよう
  • 何を伝えるべきか
    • 歴史と歴史文献学
    • 考古学と古生物学
    • 環境関連本
    • SF
    • 科学、技術書
    • 人口、疫学
    • Long Nowの図書館、時計など
  • 語られ記録されたものは文化ではない。文化は記憶された部分のことである。
  • どこに保存すべきか
  • ムーアの法則よりメトカーフの法則の影響力
    • チップは個人の力、ネットは社会の力
  • タイムカプセル
    • 南極の氷の中 -60ºC
    • 月面 -230ºC
  • 言語問題
    • 1.5〜2万言語の内2/3は消滅
  • 問題は将来何が貴重が情報になるのかはわからない

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16. Tragic Optimism:

  • What do you think? Are things getting better or are they getting worse?
    • People behave better when they think they have free will.
    • Most people these days think things are getting worse.
    • Global Business Network; strategists in large organizations all over the world, and their view of the future is routinely bleak. People everywhere are worried about the future.
  • Do people behave better when they think things are getting better or when they think things are getting worse?
    • Getting worse; Reap now, sow nothing?
    • Getting better; Sow now, reap later.
  • How do you thing about time? Is time long or is it wide?
    • Wide time: Time can be thought of in terms of everything happening now and last week and next week.
    • Long time; events as most influenced by history; much was decided before you were born.
    • Wide time is on the increase these days. Technology seems to be accelerating. High-turnover networks and markets rule, instead of staid old hierarchies.
  • Short term worse, long term better?
    • in the short term the pessimists are right, and in the long term the optimists are right.
  • Is the glass half empty, or half full?
    • It depends if you're pouring or if you're drinking.

16. 悲劇的な楽観主義:

  • 物事は良くなるか悪くなるか
    • 良くなると思う人の行動パターン
    • 多くの人は悪化するとの見方
    • 経済誌の世論
  • 良くなると思う人とそうでない人
    • 先行き悪化:現在刈り取り
    • 先行き改善:現在投資
  • 時間観
    • 直近の出来事重視
    • 歴史重視
  • 短期的には悪化、長期的には良好
    • 短期的には悲観論
    • 長期的には楽観論
  • グラスは、半分空か半分満たされたいるか
    • 今注いでいるのか、飲んでいるのかに依る

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17 Futurismo:

  • Peter Drucker: all of his books about the futuro still in print;
    • The Future of Industrial Man, 1941
    • The New Society, 1950
    • The Landmarks of Tomorrow, 1959
    • The Age of Discontinuity, 1969
    • The New Realities, 1989
  • It is time to draw a harsh distinction, between science and "scientism" (the style of science without its substance)
    • There is a domain of future studies, rigorous and objective, and another that is essentially "futurism", - a belief structure, often highly subjective.
    • The distinguishing trait of futurismists is that they have an agenda; something they want to have happen or something they want to prevent from happening in the future, often based on a particular ideology, political bent, theory of history, or special interest.
  • Science fiction:
    • Asaac Asimov once said that science fiction was born when it became evident that our world was changing within our lifetimes, and therefore thinking about the future became a matter of individual survival.
    • Freeman Dyson; "Economic forecasting misses the real future because it has too short a range; fiction misses the future because it has too little imagination.
  • Soothsayers;
    • had the irrational mechanism right, but their overrational and subjective mode of interpretation is wrong; they predict only in terms of what is feared or desired.
    • The core fallacy of futurismo is; Desire always misreads fate.

17. 未来主義:

  • P.ドラッカーの著作
  • 科学と科学主義者
    • 客観的な科学と、主観的な科学主義者
  • SFとは
    • A.アシモフ曰く:SFは、一生涯で世界が変化するからこそSFが生まれた。従って未来について干上げることは個人的な視点に過ぎない。
    • F.ダイソン曰く:経済予想は短期予測なので未来を描けない。SFも想像力が不足
  • 預言者とは
    • 未来主義者の誤り:願望は常に運命を読み違える

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18. Uses of The Future:

  • Future is essentially unknowable:
  • Multiple scenarios;
    • allows partites to continue to disagree about the past and present and at the same time allow them to agree about possible futures they face together.
  • Animal bodies:
    • are confired toward the future; our faces leading the way in the direction of travel.
    • Our mental framework has bias toward the future. Future pain gets more of our attention than past pain.
    • We go from anticipation to anticipation, not from satisfaction to satisfaction.
  • time is asymmmetrical for us:
    • Forward-leaning: We can see the past but not influence it. We can influence the future but not see it. Both the invisibility and potential malleability of the future draw us to lean into it, alert to threat or opportunity, empowered by the blackness of is page.
  • Does the passage of tuture time dilute value or increase value?
    • Discout Rate: Discounting the future led to modest short-term individual gain and horrendous long-term public loss.
  • Future tree:
    • It had a fat trunk (the present), several branches indication various major directions in which the guture might go, and 36 twigs a the top, showin that many distinct ftures in a few years.
  • Paradox between karma and discounting.
    • In the fashion and commercial domains a discounted approach to the fture is necessary to maintain the customary swift turnover.
    • An increasingly karmic and ccareful approach is appropriate to managing the slower layers of infrastructure, governance, culture, and nature.
    • Karma and sicounting both are voided by the 10,000-Year Clock
  • Prisoner's Dilenmma by Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation ,1984:
    • iterated Prisoner's Dilemma; tit for tat emerges spontaneously, allowing both players to coopearte and thus get higher scores; the shadow of the future is allowed to lengthen.
    • even in a game that rewards distruct, time teaches the players the value of cooopeartion, however guarded they may be.
    • Marriage is common to every society, because trusting partners have an advantage over lone wolves.
  • The great use of a continuous futre is its inclusiveness:
    • Given uncertainty, wer are also right to use many scenarios, but wre are also right to assume we share one world (karmic responsibility).
    • Anything may happen in the futre; relaible pattern only emerges in how people handle events over time.
    • We don't know what's coming. We do know we're in it together.

18. 未来の活用:

  • 未来は本質的に知り得ない
  • 多くの未来シナリオ
  • 動物の体:未来指向
  • 時間の非対称性
  • 時間の経過は価値の減少か増加か
  • 未来の木:
    • 太い幹と細い枝
  • カルマか現在価値か
  • 囚人のジレンマ
  Bの協調 Bの裏切
Aの協調 -2, -2 -10, 0
Aの裏切 0, -10 -5, -5
  • 連続する未来
    • 未来が不確定なら多くの未来シナリオが可能
    • 未来に何かが起これば、確定的なパターンが生じる
    • 何が起こるかは不明だが、その未来に包含されていることは確か

 

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19. Uses of The Past:

  • Like a tree, civilization stand on its past.
    • Only 5% of a mature tree's mass is alive - the leaves, cambium, sapwood, and root tips. All the rest is dead.
  • Some of the deepest connections we can make are with our own distant past.
    • Egyptian collection at the British Museum: human forearm and hand. the nails were beautifully manicured and hennaed, and in perfect condition The hand was gently curved as if holding a small animal or bird.
    • At Laetoli, Tanzania; ancient trail of hominid foot prints left in solidified volcanic ash by a male, female, and child. She stops, pauses, turns to the left to glance at some possible threat or irregularity, and then continues to the north. 3,600,000 year ago, a remote ancestor experienced a moment of doubt.
  • Inflation:
    • A two-century study would have shown that US had no inflation at all from 1780s clear to the 1930s. In the light of the full story, normal is not 12%, but zero. High inflation was not the problem; any inflation was the problem.
  • the past is both a comfort and a warning.
    • If it is just a comfort, we become tranquilized and turn away from the future. If the past is just a warning, we may overlearn its lesson and seek a discontinuous break with the past, which then is bound to fail.
    • Embracing the warning of the past along with its comfort is the essence of tragic optimism.

19. 過去の活用:

  • 木のように文明も過去の上に立っている:木は5%が生きている
  • 我々の遠い過去とのつながり
    • 大英博物館にある古代エジプト人の手
    • タンザニアの360万年まえの人類の足跡:男と女と子供:立ち止まり左を向いてから北上。何かに注目していた跡。
  • インフレーション:米国は1780年代から1930年代までインフレはなかった。
    • 12%どころか、どのインフレも問題
  • 過去は慰撫でありかつ警告
    • この両面を抱くことが悲劇的楽観主義の所以

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20. Reframing The Problems:

  • What are the most serious environmental problems confronting humankind at the beginning of the 21C?
    • World population problem, Climate change problem. Loss of biodiversity, Ocean fisheries, Freshwater aquifers, North-south economic disparity, Rain forest, Agricultural and industrial pollution, (and NUCLEAR WASTE DISPOSAL!!)
  • First Earth Day in 1970:
    • Photo of the earth from space:
  • Now:
    • is the period in which people feel they live and act and have responsibility.
    • Traditional tribes; now is seven generations back and forward 175 years each.
  • Terraforming Earth:
    • Infrastructure thinking; we don't have to build the atmosphere that sustains us, the soils, the aquifers, the wild fisheries, the forests, the rich biological complexity that keeps the whole thing resilient.
    • All we have to do is defend these systems from ourselves;
    • Terraforming Mars: making it comfortable for life
  • Environmental degradation is proportional to:
    • population x affluence x technology
    • Doing more with less: IT is reversing that formula; better technology and more affluence leads to less environmental arm.
  • Tragedy of the commons:
    • Successful ones are maintainable neither by the state nor the market but by a local set of community feedbacks.
    • War, especially civil war, destroys the environment and displaces caring for the environment for generations
    • Widespread poverty destroys the environment and under mines all ability to think and act for the long term.

20. 問題の再構築:

  • 21Cの環境にとって最悪の問題とは?
    • 世界人口、気候変動、生物多様性損失、水産資源、水資源、工業廃棄物、核廃棄物!
  • 最初の地球年1970
  • 今とは
    • 生きている間に責任取れる範囲
    • 前後7世代 (前後175年)
  • テラフォーミング:
    • 地球自体のテラフォーミング
    • 火星のテラフォーミング計画
  • 環境劣化要員
    • 人口×豊かさ×技術
    • あるいは環境負荷減少技術
  • 共有地の悲劇
    • 国でも市場でもなく、地域か
    • 戦争、特に内戦による環境破壊
    • 貧困拡大による環境破壊

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21. Slow Science:

  • It is hard to understand why very long-term scientific studies are so rare:
    • Global warming the Mauna Loa CO2 records show the beginning effects of global warming as well as one of its major causes: from 315 ppm in 1958 to 262 ppm in 1998 (40 years)
  • Enormous, inexorable power is in the long trends, but we cannot measure them or even notice them without doing extremely patient science.
    • These days science is more often driven at commercial or even fashion velocity than at the deliberate pace of governance or the eve slower pace of nature.
    • As history accelerates, people become fast learners, and that's good, but it is also a problem.
    • Fast learner tend to track noisy signals too closely and to confuse themselves by making changes before the effects of previous actions are clear.
  • Quiz shows and classroom teachers reward the quick answerer. this is not helpful in domains where the quick answer is the wrong answer.
    • 90-year study in Africa concluded that burning new woody growth in open grassland could not prevent the woods from taking over.
    • while 40-yar study of the same subject proved the opposite, that annual burning was an ideal way to keep the grasslands open.
  • the longer the data se grew the more valuable it became.
    • rigorously collected old data keeps finding new uses.
    • Universities are dying to do long-term research, but they can7t count on reliable sources of funding over time.
  • Long Now Library:
    • broker ambitious longitudinal science studies with deep-pocketed or steady-pocketed funding sources.
    • when they are abandoned by their original researchers, it could try to find new keepers of the work, or at least preserve the accumulated material for later view or revival.
    • could foster cross-pollination among the long-term projects.

21. 緩慢科学:

  • 長期的な科学研究が稀な理由
    • CO2増加の測定 (1958-98)
  • 長期間及ぼす影響を調査するには長年の研究が必須
    • 昨今は科学研究の迅速化、商用主義
    • 早期の学習は直近のノイズを拾ってしまうことが問題
  • クイズ的な即答の問題点
    • アフリカでの90年に及ぶ観察研究
    • 40年では判明しなかったこと
  • 長期間のデータの価値
    • 大学でも長期的な科学研究が行われない傾向
  • Long Now Libraryの役割
    • 長期的な研究への支援
    • 原研究者の後継探し、データ保存
    • 長期研究間の交流促進

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22. The Long View:

  • Viewing Earth and Earth's history from an altitude 300K km.
    • Fred Hoyle forecast in 1947, "Once a photograph of the Earth taken from outside, is available ... anew idea as powerful as any in history will be let loose.
    • Once we acknowledge our new responsibility for the health of the planet, the large view and the long view become one; as the Long Here.
  • Our senses and our thinking habits:
    • are tuned to what is sudden, and oblivious to anything gradual.
    • between the near-impossible win of a lottery and the certain win of earning compound interest, we choose the lottery because it is sudden.
    • The difference between fast news and slow non news is what makes gambling addictive.
    • Winning is an event that we notice and base our behavior on, while the relentless losing, losing, losing is a nonevent, inspiring no particular behavior, and so we miss the real event, which is that to gamble is to lose.
  • Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon:
    • the more gradual and hidden the change, the more important it turned out to be... the real changes were the insidious transformations.
  • The long view:
    • Even some corporations, commerce-hasty as they are, do it;
    • responsible lumber companies farming their woods on 70-year cycles.
    • insurance companies with their century-scale actuarial tables.
    • government and universities are the main institution we charge with caring for the long view;
    • people care about heir place in history when their own past is valued.
    • people take the long view when they feel a commitment to those who come after them. The long view look right through death.

22. 長期的視点:

  • 地球の出の写真のインパクト

earthrise

  • 我々の感覚のくせ
    • 突然の変化に着目し、徐々の変化に気付かない
    • 複利の預金より短期の宝くじに反応
    • なぜ博打に負けるか。勝った時はニュースとして記憶されるが、負けた時はニュースにならず記憶されない。しかし負け続けるという重要な出来事が博打の本質である。
  • ローマ帝国滅亡の原因
    • 徐々の変化
  • 長期的視点:
    • 林業や保険業は長期的
    • 最も長期視点であるべきは政府と大学である。
    • 後から来る世代に対するコミントメントが長期視点の原点

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23. Generations:

  • The great problem with the future
    • is that we die there. The longer future, because that world is suffused with our absence.
    • Shakespeare said; "Thought's the slave of life, and life time's fool; And time, that takes survey of al the world, Must have a stop. O! I could prophesy, But that the earthly and cold hand of death lies on my tongue."
    • Time will not have a stop; it won't even slow down. That may explain why people have been speeding up, as if by cramming more and more life into each passing hour they can personally enact Zeno's Paradox.
  • Life expectancy;
    • a newborn's life expectancy reached 34 in 1900, 46 in 1954, 64 in 1998, will be 74 by 2020.
    • Never in history have so many generations been alive at the same time.
  • As I get older, my 'age group' widens on both sides.
    • when I was a teenager, my range extended a year or two in either direction.
    • now, in my mid-forties, my generation includes people who grew up or even fought in the Second World War.
  • Bonds between generations to grow stronger;
    • Danny Hills recalls, "What my grandfather did was create options. He worked hard to allow my father to have a better education than he did, and in turn my father did the same."
    • The debt we cannot repay our ancestors we pay our descendants.

23. 世代:

  • 未来の問題:
    • 自身のいない未来社会
  • 平均寿命の延び
    • 34歳/1900
    • 46歳/1954
    • 64歳/1998
    • 74歳/2020
  • 高齢化による世代幅の拡大
  • 次世代への贈り物
    • 教育の機会

 

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24. Sustained Endeavor:

  • Bad things happen fast. Good thing happen slow.
    • Construction usually requires sequential elements of assembly, whereas destruction can be done all at once.
    • Chinese proverb, "A hasty man drinks tea with a fork."
    • 17C English proverb, "Haste make waste, and waste makes want, and want makes strife between the goodman and his wife."
  • To make systems fault-tolerant;
    • One is to make them small, so that correction is local and quick; the other is to make them slow, so that correction has time to permeate the system.
    • Gradual emergent processes get steadily better over time, while quickly imposed processes often get worse over time.
  • The kind of goals that can be reached quickly are rather limited:
    • The growing disparity between haves and have nots, widespread hunger, dwindling freshwater resources, ethnic conflict, global organized crime, loss of biodiversity, and so on.
    • Such problems were slow to arrive, and they can only be solved at their own pace.
    • We have not yet seriously asked ourselves what we might do with 50 years or 500 years of sustained endeavor.
    • This is some of what keeps people working gladly in long-lived institutions such as universities and religions; it would be the main attraction of very-long-term science studies.
  • The Wildlands Project;
    • aims to restore enough wild land, surrounded by partially wild "buffer zones" and connected by wildlife migration corridors, for native animal and plant populations to survive indefinitely amid human dominance of the continent.

24. 持続可能な試み:

  • 悪事千里、善事は一歩
    • 建設は連続的な要素の積み重ねから。破壊は一瞬
    • 急がば回れ
  • 耐障害性システム
    • 小さく作る。訂正が局所化、迅速化できる。
    • ゆっくり作る。時間をかけて確実に作る。
  • 早急に達成すべき目標は限られている。
    • 南北問題、資源、民族分孫、多様性喪失など
    • 50年どころか500年プロジェクト
  • 野生保護ゾーン
    • 米国内に野生保護のバッファー帯を作る。

 

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25. The Infinite Game

  • A finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the game.
    • Football, elections, and much of business are finite games; win/lose.
    • Family, gardening, and spiritual practice are infinite games; losing is meaningless.
    • Finite players seek to control the future; infinite players arrange things so the future keeps providing surprises.
    • Death-defying finite players seek immortality through their famous victories; infinite players offer their death as a way of continuing the play. They do not play for their own life, they live for their own play.
  • Finite game
    • The purpose is to win. Improves through fittest surviving. Winners exclude losers. Winner takes all. Aims are identical. Relative simplicity. Rules fixed in advance. Rules resemble debating contests. Compete for mature markets. Short-term decisive contests.
  • Infinite game
    • The purpose is to improve the game. Improves through game evolving. Winners teach losers better plays. Winning widely shared. Aims are diverse. Relative complexity. Rules changed by agreement. Rules resemble grammar of original utterances. Grow new markets. Long term.
  • Preserving and increasing options is a major component of a self-saving world.
    • Time -inclusive thinking began when the first farmers planted their seeds instead of eating them.
    • Surprise plus memory equals learning. Endless surprise, diligent memory, endless learning.
    • The present moment that lives on to become long ago.
    • The present moment used to be the unimaginable future.

25. 無限のゲーム:

  • 有限のゲーム
    • 目的は勝利。最適生存によて改善。勝者は弱者を排除。勝者は全て獲得。目標は同一。ルールは既定。成熟市場での競争。短期的な競合。
  • 無限のゲーム
    • 目的はゲームの改善。ゲームの進化を通じての改善。勝者は敗者に良いゲームを教授。勝利は共有。目標は多様。相対的に複雑。ルールは合意により決定。新規市場開拓。長期的。
  • 自己保存世界
    • 農業の始まり
    • 驚嘆+記憶=学習。
    • 現在は過去から続いている。そして想像もできない未来へ続いていく。
Comment
  • It is interesting to think of the future, which is full of unimaginable things.
  • Geology which I have studied is a genre of science considering long-term viewpoint.

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