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Essence of Economic White Papers 2013

from METI & MPT White Papers

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2013
#1319a
Selected by Kanzo Kobayashi
up 13y18

Title

Essence of Economic White Papers 2013

経済関連白書2013のエッセンス

Index
Tag
 
Why

Reference:

  • METI: Trade White Paper, 2013
  • METI: Energy Whilte Paper, 2014
  • MPT: ICT White Paper, 2013

参考

  • 経済産業省:通商白書, 2013
  • 経済産業省:エネルギー白書2014
  • 総務省:情報通信白書, 2013
Essence
Comment
>Top

0. Preface:

  • It worth reading the official Trade and ICT White papers; which usually illustrate rosy future visions, but also indicate serious issue of Japan.
  • Statistics are neutral; which can make us to imagine various scenarios about our future.

0. 序文:

  • 通商白書や情報通信白書は読む価値がある。それは通常はバラ色の未来を聞く津しているが、同時に日本の深刻な問題も示唆している。
  • 統計は中立的である。それは我々の将来について様々なシナリオをかき立てる。
>Top

1. METI White Paper, 2013: GDP Growth:

Japan 1974 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
GDP Growth (%) -0.4 4.4 3.9 4.6 2.0 0.9 1.4 -0.4

Labor hours contribution

-1.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
Labor quality contribution 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
Capital contribution 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.5
TFP contribution -2.2 1.6 0.5 1.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.6
US   1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
GDP Growth (%)   4.4 2.0 3.6 1.9 3.5 2.5 0.5

Labor hours contribution

  2.6 0.7 1.4 0.5 1.3 -0.1 -0.2
Labor quality contribution   0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Capital contribution   2.1 1.6 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.9
TFP contribution   -0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.4
Germany 1971-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09

GDP Growth (%)

3.2 2.7 1.1 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.4 0.8
Labor hours contribution -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1
Labor quality contribution 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1
Capital contribution 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8
TFP contribution 2.6 2.0 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.2
UK     1981-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
GDP Growth (%)     1.4 3.7 1.5 3.5 3.2 0.5

Labor hours contribution

    -1.1 1.5 -1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.1
Labor quality contribution     -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3
Capital contribution     1.1 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.8
TFP contribution     1.4 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.0 -0.5
France     1981-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
GDP Growth (%)     1.6 2.8 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.7

Labor hours contribution

    -1.4 0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Labor quality contribution     0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4
Capital contribution     0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7
TFP contribution     1.9 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 -0.4

Japan 1971-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
Real GDP Growth per capita 3.5 3.4 2.9 4.7 1.9 0.5 1.2 -0.2

Labor productivity contribution

5.5 3.6 2.7 4.3 2.8 1.7 2.1 0.7
Labor hours pc contribution -1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -1.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.8
Employment ratio contribution -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.7
Productive age population ratio -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8
US 1971-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
Real GDP Growth per capita 2.5 2.7 1.5 2.8 1.1 2.8 1.7 -0.1

Labor productivity contribution

1.9 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.1
Labor hours pc contribution -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4
Employment ratio contribution 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.9
Productive age population ratio 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1
  • Source: METI Trade White Paper, 2013
  • GDP Growth in Japan
    • 1970s-80s: Stable growth period of about 4%
    • after 1990s: Low growth period of about 1%, mostly due to decline of Labor hours and TFP.

1. : 経済産業省通商白書2013:GDP成長率

  • 実質GDP成長率比較:
    • 日米独英仏
    • 日本は
      1970-80年代は4%
    • 1990年以降は1%以下
  • 実質GDP成長率
    (一人当たり)比較:
    • 日米

>Top

2. MPT ICT White Paper 2013: ICT Industry

  • ICT industry contains:
    • telecom services
    • telecom equipment
    • application & contents
  • ICT serves as a driving force for easing (GPT, General Purpose Tool):
    • ageing society with declining labor population
      • over 65: 39.9% in 2060
    • budget deficits
    • decline of local economy
  • Global expanding growth:
    • World population: over 7B in 2011
    • mid-income countries: 84.5% of world population and 32.8% of world GDP
  • World Mobile phone user-population:
    • 720M/2000, 2.19B/2005, 5.36B/2010
    • Mobile banking; Mobile money service provider
  • World Internet user-population
    • 390M/2000, 1.01B/2005, 2.03B/2010
  • World ICT investment growth:
    • World $3.43T/2011; $4.44T/2026
    • World 5.4%; Asia-Pacific 7.2%; Japan 2.5%
  • Globalization of ICT vendors (2010):
    • US vendors: $6.95T, global share 25.7%, overseas sales ratio 47.7%
    • EU vendors: global share 6.1%, overseas sales ratio 57.3%
    • Japanese vendors: global share 8.1%, overseas sales ratio 20.1%
  • Contribution to GDP Growth (= Productivity):
    1. Hour of labor
    2. Quality of labor
    3. Information capital
    4. General capital
    5. TFP (Total Factor Productivity)
  • Cf: Drivers of Productivity Growth (Source: The office of National Statistics - UK)
    1. Investment is in physical capital; machinery, equipment & building.
    2. Innovation is the successful exploitation of new ideas; works faster and more efficiently, or better organization increases motivation at work.
    3. Skills are defined as quantity & quality of labor; sills complement physical capital.
    4. Enterprise is defines as seizing of new business opportunities by both start-ups and existing firms.
    5. Competition improves productivity by creating incentives to innovate and ensures that resources are allocated to the most efficient firms

総務省ICT白書:情報通信産業

  • ICT産業:
    • 通信サービス
    • 通信機器
    • アプリケーション・コンテンツ
  • ICTは汎用ツール
    • 少子高齢化社会
    • 財政赤字
    • 地方経済衰退
  • 世界のGDP成長:
    • 世界人口 :70億/2011
    • 中所得国:世界人口の84.5%、GDPの32.8%
  • 世界携帯電話ユーザ
    • 7.2億/2000→54億/2010
  • 世界インターネットユーザ
    • 3.9億/2000→20億/2010
  • 世界ICT投資伸び:
    • 世界5.4%、アジア太平洋7.2%、日本2.5%
  • グローバルITベンダの海外売上比率 (下図)
  • GDP成長の要素 (生産性)
    • 労働時間
    • 労働の質
    • 情報化投資
    • 一般投資
    • 全要素生産性
    Investment scenario 2011-2015 2016-2020 2011-2020
Real GDP Growth % a) Base line 1.7 1.5 1.6
b) All investment accelerated 2.2 2.1 2.2
c) ICT investment more accelerated 2.3 2.5 2.4
Potential GDP Growth % a) Base line 0.7 0.7 0.7
b) All investment accelerated 0.9 1.3 1.1
c) ICT investment more accelerated 1.0 2.0 1.5
Nominal GDP Growth % a) Base line 1.8 1.8 1.8
b) All investment accelerated 2.4 2.7 2.5
c) ICT investment more accelerated 2.5 3.0 2.7
# of Employee M a) Base line 62.42 62.00 62.21
b) All investment accelerated 62.57 62.29 62.43
c) ICT investment more accelerated 62.56 62.15 62.35
Unemployment ratio % a) Base line 5.1 4.3 4.8
b) All investment accelerated 4.8 3.9 4.5
c) ICT investment more accelerated 4.9 4.1 4.6
  • Premises:
    1. a) Scenario:
      • World GDP growth will be less than 4%.
      • Ex. change rate against US$ will be similar level.
      • Export growth will be 4%, which was less than half of 10% (av. 2002-2007)
      • The present policy of curbing public investment is unchanged.
      • Consumption tax will be raised more 3% in Apr. 2012 and further 2% in Apr. 2016.
      • Labor force will decrease up to minus 0.4% per annum.
      • ICT investment will be same with the present level.
    2. b) & c) scenario: Corporation tax (30%) will be decreased to 20% in 2011.
    3. c) Scenario: ICT investment will increase further plus 2% than the average of 2010's.
  • Source: MPT Research Report (How ICT investment affects to GDP growth in Japan), Jun. 2009

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3. MPT White Paper: Globalized ICT Vendors:

  Domestic
sales
Overseas
sales
Overseas
sales ratio
Total
sales
US IBM 12.0 25.8 68% 37.8
US HP 8.4 12.1 59% 20.5
US Accenture 6.2 10.9 64% 17.1
Jp Fujitsu 10.6 5.4 34% 16.0
US CSC 8.0 4.9 38% 12.9
Jp NTT Data 8.9 1.4 14% 10.3
Fr Atos 4.0 5.8 59% 9.8
Fr Capgemeni 2.0 7.2 78% 9.2
US Lockheed Martin 8.3 0.8 9% 9.1
US SAIC 8.2 0.1 1% 8.3
Jp NEC 7.0 0.9 11% 7.9
US Xerox 6.0 1.7 22% 7.7
Jp Hitachi 6.6 1.1 14% 7.7
US ADP 5.9 1.5 20% 7.4
US Northrop Grumman 3.1 3.5 53% 6.6
De T-Systems 4.0 2.0 33% 6.0
De BT 2.9 3.1 52% 6.0
US Detroit 2.8 3.1 53% 5.9
  • Globalization of ICT Vendors.

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4. MPT White Paper: IICT Industries Sales:

  • ICT Industries Sales (2010FY)
  Sales (¥B) %
Telecom service 16278 39.3
Software service 10363 25.0
Info. processing service 5659 13.7
Broadcasting 2279 5.5
Internet-related service 1701 4.1
Newspaper 1613 3.9
Publication 1467 3.5
Film 814 2.0
Cable broadcasting 463 1.1
Advertising 233 0.6
Audio program 97 0.2
Service provider AVT 69 0.2
Miscellaneous 372 0.9
*Total: 2010 41386 100
  • Subscribers of Fixed Communications vs. Mobile Communications:
  Fixed Comm. (10K) Mobile Comm. (10K)
2000 6196 6678
2001 6133 7482
2002 6077 8112
2003 6022 8665
2004 5961 9147
2005 5808 9648
2006 5515 10170
2007 5123 10734
2008 4732 11205
2009 4334 11630
2010 3957 12329
2011 3595 13276
2012    
  • Content Market in Japan (2010)
    Sales (¥B) %
*Video content 5550 49.1
  Terrestrial TV program 2840 25.1
  Satelligte/Cable TV program 833 7.4
  Game software 741 6.6
  Movie content 693 6.1
  Video content 314 2.8
  Original video content 128 1.1
*Text content 4925 43.6
  Newspaper articles 1712 15.2
  Magazine content 1313 11.6
  Book content 700 6.2
  Comics 509 4.5
  Original text content 399 3.5
  Database articles 293 2.6
*Audio content 816 7.2
  Music 625 5.5
  Radio program 193 1.7
  Original audio content 1 0.0
**Total: 11293 100
 
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5. METI White Paper: Innovation & Productivity:

Item 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2008

TRP

1.59 -0.92 0.33 0.85
Labor quality 0.32 0.40 0.53 0.51
Intangible asset 0.47 0.47 0.16 0.05
Tangible asset 1.79 1.23 0.70 0.35
Productivity growth % 4.2 1.2 1.7 1.8

Intangible assent 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2008

a) Organizational structure

0.03 0.04 0.00 -0.01
a) Internal proprietary human capital 0.06 0.00 -0.02 -0.04
a) Brand asset 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.01
b) Product development, design, nonscientific R&D 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.01
b) Natural resources development license 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Intellectual property 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.03
b) Scientific R&D 0.12 0.26 0.00 0.03
c) Proprietary software development for internal use 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00
c) Customized software development for client 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.08

Intangible assent ratio (Japan/US/UK) Japan US UK

a) Organizational structure

25.9 11.0 46.0 0.0 49.9 16.1
a) Internal proprietary human capital 4.0 33.5 24.5
a) Brand asset 10.9 12.5 9.3
b) Product development, design, nonscientific R&D 54.0 18.3 39.7 13.5 32.7 19.7
b) Intellectual property 9.8 7.0 2.0
b) Natural resources development license 0.0 2.0 0.3
b) Scientific R&D 25.9 17.2 110.7
c) Database 20.1 2.0 14.3 0.0 17.4 0.0
c) Proprietary software development for internal use 4.2 0.0 11.0
c) Package software development 1.9 14.3 0.0
c) Customized software development for client 12.0 0.0 6.4

Intangible asset investment in
Brand/Human resources/Organization
Jp/Canada/Portugal/Sweden/Finland 2005
Other countries 2006
Source: "Science, Technology & Industry Scoreboard 2011"

  Ratio (%) /GDP
US 5.88 %
Netherlands 5.73
UK 5.36
Sweden 4.43
Finland 4.05
Canada 3.75
Portugal 3.45
France 3.29
Denmark 3.00
Australia 2.89
Germany 2.83
Japan 2.81
Austria 2.43
Italy 2.19
Spain 1.90
  • OECD Report ("OECD Innovation Strategy") says, most of TFP contribution depends on innovation and efficiency in production. R&D is a typical innovation activity; which affects positive impact to the productivity, or increase of TFT.
  • Intangible assent can be segmented (according to Corrado, Hulten & Sichel, 2009):
    • a) Economic competencies
      • organizational structure
      • internal proprietary human capital
      • brand asset
    • b) Innovative property
      • product development, design, and nonscientific R&D
      • natural resources development license
      • intellectual property
      • scientific R&D
    • c) Computerized information
      • proprietary software development for internal use
      • customized software development for client
    • Since 1995 expenses for human capital
  • Source: "Intangible investment in Japan and contribution to economic growth", Fukao et al, 2009
  • Innovation can be segmented:
    1. Product innovation: development of new product & service
    2. Process innovation: improvement of production process
    3. Marketing innovation: improvement of design, sales, & price changes
    4. Organizational innovation: new methodology of corporate management
  • The hearing to enterprise indicates:
    • Product/Process innovations have been more realized than marketing/organizational innovations.

5. 経済産業省通商白書:イノベーションと生産性:

  • 生産性の向上に重要な役割を果たすのがイノベーション
  • TFPの伸びの多くは、イノ絵と効率改善による
  • イノベーションの代表例はR&D
  • RYDはTFP上昇率に有意に正の影響
  • R&Dに限らない広義の無形資産が成長要因として注目
  • これは"OECDイノベーション戦略"でも言及
  • <左表>は、成長会計による労働生産性に及ぼす寄与を資産
  • これによると、1985-90は、労働生産性上昇率4.2%の内、無形資産が0.5%の寄与。
  • しかし1990年後半以降は、寄与が0.2%以下に低下。
  • (注:2000-2008は、白書には無形資産の内訳は0.05%とあるが、これは0.15%の誤りではないかと思う?)
  • 2000年代になると、受注ソフトは拡大しているものの、R&D、デザイン、ブランド等の寄与は縮小。特に人的資本、組織の寄与はマイナスに転化
  • これは1990年以降のバブル崩壊後、人材育成を中心に無形投資が低調であったことを示す。
  • これを米英と比較するとR&Dのシェアが大きい一方で、人的資本、組織への投資シェアが小さい。
  • 日本企業のイノベーションへの取組状況考察:
    • 製品やプロセスにかんして比較的取組企業が多いが
    • マーケティングや組織イノベーションに対しては取組が弱い
    • イノベーションと海外市場への進出の相関関係では、イノベーションを実現した企業はしない企業より海外主出割合が高い。
    • 特にマーケティングイノベーションを実現した企業の海外進出はしない企業の2倍以上

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6. Japanese Offshore Business:

  # of Japanese participated Overseas Corp. # of Japanese Corp in Overseas
China 5695 2667
Hong Kong 1170 974
Taiwan 948 819
*Great Chinal S-total 7813 4460
Korea 762 622
Thailand 1777 1292
Singapore 1069 809
Malaysia 806 616
Indonesia 755 614
Vietnam 528 471
Phlippines 450 343
*ASEAN S-total 5385 4145
India 489 392
**Asia Total 14449 9619
**World Total 23858 4266
  • Source: JISA Overseas Committee WG, 2013
  • Major issued between Overseas IT-related Software Development Co.. and Japanese one.
      1. Necessity of documentation: Japan required exact documentation for future improvement.
      2. Necessity of unit testing:
      3. Easy to read documentation or instruction.
      4. Copyright should be owned by local company to enable easy amendment.
      5. Constant visit more than 183 days could be regarded as PE (Permanent Establishment) Tax.
      6. Target price: local cost should be around 1/5, but sells 10 times more.

 

 

6. :

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7. Primary Energy Supply per GDP.

  • Source: METI Energy White Paper:
    Primary Energy Supply (Oil equivalent ton/GDP real in US$ 2006)
    Comparison: Japan= 1.0
  • Russia 7.7
    China (incl. HK) 6.2
    Thailand 5.7
    India 5.7
    Indonesia 5.2
    Middle East 5.1
    Korea 2.5
    Canada 2.0
    US 1.7
    Australia 1.4
    EU-27 1.1
    France 1.1
    Germany 1.0
    Japan 1.0

    UK

    0.9
    World 2.5

7. GDP当たりのエネルギー供給量

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Comme3nt
  • a
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