Essence of Oil Economics Beyond geopolitical viewpoint	Cat: ECO Pub: 2005 #: 1207b
	Kazuhiko Fuji (藤　和彦)	up 12421

Title	Essence of Oil Economics	石油を読む：地政学的発想を超えて
Index	Fall of Japan: Real culprit of oil price: Resources paranoia - China: Mythology of oil: New energy strategy: Natural gas:	序: 原油価格の真犯人: 資源パラノイア・中国: 石油神話: 新エネルギー戦略: 天然ガス:
Tag	; Arbitrage; BTC pipeline; CNPC; ESPO; HHI; Kazakhstan-China pipeline; MTBE ; Oil reserve; ; OPEC-OAPEC; North Sea Brent; Natural gas; Sea lane; Supermajors; Tech innovation; WTI; VLCC;
Why?	Energy problem, including oil and oil gas, and sustainable energy is getting a noticeable issue of global economics, particularly after sharp rise of oil price in 2004, and the fatal accident at Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011. Oil is still major source of energy and its economics directly affects global economis. Here covers wide range of topics of the present oil economics.	エネルギー問題は、石油や天然ガス、再生可能エネルギーを含め、特に2004年の石油高騰、および2011年の福島原発の大事故の後、再度、注目テーマになりつつある。 石油はまだ主要なエネルギー源であり、その経済は世界経済に直結する。 ここでは石油経済の現状を広くカバーしている。

Original resume	Japanese resume
>Top 0. Introduction: Unit: bbl = 159 litter bbl/d x 53 = ton/y (sp.gr = 0.9) pipeline capacity (diameter: 1220 mm) : 80 - 90 K ton oil 1 ton ≒ gas 1000 sq.m	0. 序: 単位: １バーレル＝159リットル バーレル/日 x 53 = ton/年 パイプライン容量：直径1220 mm 石油1トン≒ガス1000 m3

>Top 1. Real culprit of oil price: WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil Price 1978 - 2012: (Above chart) 2004.10.12: WTI Oil Price surged to $54.45 /bbl due to Hurricane attack to the US refinery. Re: Unit: bbl /d = 50 ton/y Recent sharp rise is due to future purchase, not reflected real supply and demand. >Top The shortage is not crude oil, but light crude oil. Demand of WTI and North Sea Brent oil, rather than ME Oil. Gasoline price surged more than $2/gallon in US since 2004. Ban of gasoline additive MTBE (Methyl Tert-Butyl Either) to raise octane number in CA. Reverse Oil Shock since 1985: stagnant oil price less than $20/bbl. M&A of oil industry: Former Seven Sisters, now Supermajors: ExxonMobil: Standard Oil of NJ, and Standard Oil of NY: Sales $391B (2014) Royal Dutch Shell (Dutch 60/UK 40):　 $421B BP: Anglo-Persian Oil: $359B Chevron: Standard Oil of CA, Gulf Oil, and Texaco: $200B TOTAL: CFP: Euro 236B ConocoPhilips: $56B World share of Supermajors: Oil share : 10% of production, 3% of oil reserve Reasons for shrinking activities by Supermajors: less investment and less inventory policies by Supermajors. SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) by DOE, 2005: 727 Mbbl (=21Mbbl x 34 days of US oil consumption) in artificial caverns in salt domes in Gulf of Mexico. Oil: from geopolitical items to sensitive commodity: expansion of global oil market volatility of oil price like casino game weakling of political impact of OPEC countries: oil emergency stockpile in advanced countries. Chinese position in oil market: Oil consumption (Top-7) Mbbl/d US 18.9; China 8.2; Japan 4.4 India 3.0; Russia 2.7l; Brazil 2.5l, Germany 2.4 China became oil importing country since 1993; import dependency 50% (2009), 65% (2015), then70% (2020) Major sources of import: ME, Russia, Kazakhstan >Top Companies: CNPC: China National Petroleum Corp (Petro China) Sinopec: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. CNOOC: China National Offshore Oil Corp. >Top Eastern Siberia - Pacific Oil Pipeline (ESPO): Key to oil diplomacy for Russia, China and Japan: Common route: Taishet - Skovorodino: 2,700km Chinese route: Skovorodino - Daqing: 1,000km, construction cost $2.9B, capacity 0.6Mbbl/d; Export to China only. Pacific ocean route: Skovorodino - Pervoznaya, Nakhodka: 2,100km; construction cost $6.5B; capacity 1Mbbl/d; Export to Japan, Korea, US, etc.

1. 原油価格の真犯人: 世界の石油価格推移: 1978 - 2012: (上記表) 不足しているのは、軽質油であって、原油ではない。 需要は、WTI， 北海ブレントであって中東の石油ではない ガソリン価格は、米国CA州で$2/gallon 以上 オクタン価向上のための添加剤MTBEの禁止措置 (CA州) 1985年以来の逆オイルショック：$20/bbl以下のレベル 石油会社のM&A: スーパーメジャー: エクソンモービル ロイヤル・ダッチ・シェル BP シェブロン トタール コノコ・フィリップス スーパーメジャーの世界シェア 石油生産の10%、埋蔵量にお3% スーパーメジャーの活動縮み志向 投資抑制、低在庫政策 米国のSPR (戦略的石油備蓄): 727 Mbbl 石油：戦略物資から市況商品へ: 世界石油市場の拡大 カジノゲームのような価格変動 OPEC諸国の政治的インパクト低下 先進国での石油緊急備蓄 石油市場における中国の状況: 石油消費国 Mbbl/d 米国18.9；中国8.2；日本4.4 中国は1993年以来石油輸入国へ 輸入先：中東、ロシア、カザフスタン 中国の石油関連会社: CNPC (中国石油天然気集団公司) Sinopec (中国石油加工股份有限公司) CNOOC (中国海洋石油総公司) 東シベリア〜太平洋パイプライン (ESPO): 共通ルート 2,700km：タイシェット〜スコボロディーノ； 中国ルート: スコボロディーノ〜大慶 1,000km；建設費$2.9B； 太平洋ルート：スコボロディーノ〜ペルボズナヤ (ナホトカ) 2,100km；建設費$6.5B；日本、韓国、米国向けなど

>Top OPEC (Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries) Members: 12 countries Chart: Oil Production (Mbbl/d) Oil production of OPEC has been slumbered during these two decades. The increase of production has been done by non-OPEC like Russian and North Sea. Saudi Arabia has taken cautious attitude in increase of their production. Also Supermajors are also deliberate on active development, fearing sudden price decline. (Their break even price would be $20-25 /bbl) >Top Russian situation: 2006: Yukos was wiped out, due to tax evasion of Mikhail Khodorkovskii, CEO. Production: 9.9 Mbbl/d, nearly equal to Saudi Arabia Oil related companies: Gazprom: Natural gas monopoly Lukoil: largest oil producer Rosneft: oil and gas exploration company TNK-BP: J/V with BP Bashneft: largest oil refining company Transneft: pipeline monopoly New wellbore technology induced: oil layers management technology horizontal well technology fracturing technology >Top Export infrastructure is bottle neck: The Bosporus straits: Oil export pass the strait: 2.7 -3 Mbbl/d Turkey government restrict the passage of tanker (>200m length) in the daytime only, with minimum interval of 90 min. BTC Pipeline: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline; completed 2005, 30% owned by BP; 1,770km Russo-China honeymoon relation since 2005 from Russo-US.

OPEC (石油輸出機構): 加盟国：現在12ヶ国 生産量：左図。 過去20年間停滞。 むしろ増産は、非OPECであるロシア、北海原油 サウジアラビアは増産に慎重 スーパーメジャーも、価格下落を恐れて慎重 ロシアの状況: 2006：ユコス解体 M. Khodorkovski逮捕 生産量：9.9 Mbbl/d 石油関連会社: Gazprom: 天然ガス Lukoil: 最大石油生産 Rosneft: 石油ガス開発 TNK-BP: BPとの合弁 Bashneft: 石油精製 Transneft: パイプライン 新掘削技術導入: 油層マネジメント技術 水平坑井技術 フラクチャリング技術 輸出インフラがボトルネック ボスポラス海峡 石油輸出量: 2.7-3 Mbbl/d トルコ政府による海峡通過制限 BTCパイプライン: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhanパイプライン、2005年完成、1,770km 中ロ石油蜜月時代：2005〜（それまでは米ロ蜜月時代)

>Top 2. Resources Paranoia - China: China became oil importing country since 1993: 2004: Wen Jiabao emphasized resources of oil and natural gas will be essential factor of Chinese economic development. Ban of oil export from Daqing in Heirongchiang oil field. Rapid transition from bicycles to private cars: in 2030: surpass the number of US cars. Chinese car demand: 13M/2009 -> 18M/2010 -> 20M?/2020 Gasoline is cheaper in China: about 1/3 of Japan. China is increasingly dependent on ME oil: 58% -> around 70% in 2015 Chinese oil majors: CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec: no more business restrictions obtained mining rights in such as Indonesia, Sudan, Angola. Package deal: bargaining power as a big oil & gas consumer. imports 50% from ME, 25% from Africa. Premier Wen Jiabao was specialist of oil and mineral resources development. >Top Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline: Silk road pipeline CNPC and KazMunayGas Signed in 1997, finally completed in 2009. Length 2,228 km from Atyrau in Kazakhstan to Alashnkou in China's Xinjiang. Capacity: 120 Kbbl/d, then will be upgraded 400 Kbbl/d Cost: $700M Resource Paranoia: over response to oil resources potentiality: Spratly Islands: located in South China Sea. comprises more than 30,000 islands and reefs. claimant nations: Brunei, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam have no indigenous inhabitants undermined oil and natural gas potential Senkaku Islands (Pinnacle Islands): effectively controlled by Japan dispute over island ownership oil and natural gas potential, but its exploitation cost could be expensive. >Top Sea lane defense: Straits of Hormuz Straits of Malacca only 200 nautical mile (360 km) wide between Malay peninsula and Sumatra island. 23 m deep, which is scarcely enough for VLCC (300K tons tanker) 164 ships per day (6.8 ship per hour) Straits of Sunda: too shallow for VLCC Strait of Lombok longer route New oil route plan: Myanmar - Kunming, Yunnan pipeline plan 1,500 km Trans Malay peninsula pipeline Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): 90 days storage of prior year's net oil imports

2. 資源パラノイア・中国: 中国は1993年以降石油輸入国に転じた。 2004：温家宝首相発言；石油と天然ガスは中国経済の発展にとって死活問題。 大慶油田の輸出凍結 自動車社会：2030年には米国を抜く 中国の自動車需要： 13M/2009 -> 18M/2010 -> 20M?/2020 ガソリンは安価 (日本の1/3) 中東依存度上昇：58%→70%/2015 中国の石油大手 CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec 中東から50%、アフリカから25%輸入 カザフスタン･中国パイプライン(シルクロード・パイプライン) 1997年調印、2009完成 総延長2,228km 輸送容量：120 Kbbl/d、今後400 Kbbl/dに増加予定 費用：$７億 石油利権への過剰反応 南沙諸島: 尖閣列島: シーレーン防衛: ホルムズ海峡 マラッカ海峡 幅200海里 深度23m 164隻/日通過 スンダ海峡 浅すぎる ロンボック海峡 遠回り 新石油ルート計画: ミャンマー〜昆明間パイプライン 1,500km マレー半島横断パイプライン 戦略的石油備蓄 (SPR) 90日分

>Top 3. Mythology of oil: Global oil market: is not only the market for the end product, but whole process of oil industry, inducing exploration, extraction, trade, transportation, refining, sales, and consumption, etc. Upper stream: in order to maintain stable exploitation of oil, the mining company must continue drilling to find proper access to oil layers, always renewing production facilities. smaller size of mining companies (other than majors operating in Middle East countries) are obliged to continue such shoestring operation. upper stream mining operation is a high-risk industry, spending expensive excavation (about $10M per drill) as much as several tens of drilling to confirm probable oil reserve; costing from $100M to $1B. Thus only major oil mining companies are available in such huge risky investment. Downstream: There are such downstream market as delivery services by huge tankers, and refining operations. Delivery cost is less than 5% of oil price. While, delivery cost of natural gas much expensive. Oil market: NYMEX (NY Mercantile Exchange): the world biggest derivative market, including oil, natural gas, kerosene, gasoline, gold, silver, copper IPE (International Petroleum Exchange) in London: now internet-based marketplaces operated by ICE (Intercontinental exchange) Investors: comprises funds, financial institutions, brokers as well as oil producers and refining companies. >Top Three major oil price index: WTI: West Texas Intermediate: WTI is only 1Mbbl/d (=less than 2% of world oil trade volume 80 Mbbl/d) WTI's actual production is 0.5 Mbbl/d、but the derivative trade is more than 100 Mbbl/d The North Sea; Brent Crude Dubai (or Oman) oil Realtime oil statistics is unavailable. asymmetric nature of oil information. price elasticity is very small. Thus, oil market tends to unstable; showing cyclical trend. >Top Arbitrage transaction: 40% of global oil trade is spot basis. Only Japan is exceptional: 90% of oil transaction is long-term contract with ME countries. specific gravity is nearly equal to water (0.8 - 0.98) >Top half around-the-globe delivery cost is less than 5% ($1 of 1 bbl=159litter) transported by VLCC (300K tons, 21m draft) exporter and importer of oil are changeable. the end product after refinery cannot be distinguishable, which means oil selective embargo could be not be very effective. Oil crisis: price cartel after the oil crisis in 1970s, gulf war period in 1990-91, and uncertain supplying period in 2004. Price leaders: until 1970s: major oil companies called Seven Sisters controls 70% of world oil production (now only around 10%) >Top until middle of 1980s: price cartel by OPEC First oil crisis (1973-74): OPEC (mostly OAPEC) raised oil price from $3/bbl to $12/bbl (4 times) Nationalization of majors' interest by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait (except for UAE): Second oil crisis (1979 -80): raised to #34/bbl. (3 times), or 11 times more compared before 1973. But too much raise of oil price caused sharp decline in 1986, and OPEC cartel fell down. Now Saudi Arabia, leader of OPEC, aims sustainable oil price learning from inefficient raise in 1970s. after 1980s: there are no significant price leaders. Present OPEC (=Organization of petroleum Exporting Countries) (now their production share about 40%) functions as cooperative organization of major oil exporting countries, or pseudo-cartel to prevent sharp decline of oil price. Who controls oil price? It is the market; say crude oil futures market at NYMEX and IPE (International Petroleum Exchange in London) ; about 40% is spot transaction. Japanese import from ME is exceptionally long-term fixed transaction. Market mechanism: determined by WTI and the North Sea Brent oil transaction: Production capacity is about 1M bbl/d, which shares less than 2% of world trade of 80M bbl/d. But trade volume of futures market is more than 100M bbl/d incompleteness of oil information: inventory information is quite incomplete(except US). IEA publishes the inventory data two month later. short-term price elasticity (= change in demand divided by change in price) is too small. (essential commodity) oil price fluctuate depend on less preestablished harmony, or shows longer cyclical change beyond 5-10 years. >Top Herfindahl Index (or Herfindahl-Hirshman Index, or HHI): is defined as the sum of squares of the market shares of 50 largest firms; which indicates decrease in competition or increase of market power. monopoly: 1^2=1 two 50% share each: 2 x 0.5^2 = 0.5 one 50%, one 30%, one 20%: 0.5^2 + 0.3^2 + 0.2^2 = 0.38 one 50% and five 10% share: 0.5^2 + 5 x 0.1^2 = 0.3 one 30%, one 20%, five 10% shares: 0.3^2 + 0.2^2 + 5 x 0.1^2 = 0.09 + 0.04 + 0.05 = 0.18 US Dept. of Justice considers; HHI 0.01 - 0.18 is moderately concentrated, and above 0.25 to be concentrated. Natural gas market is totally different from oil market. >Top Oil reserve: Minable ore reserve: production-ratio is estimated about 40 years. this had been 30 year about 25 years ago. this minable years must be maintained by continued exploration activities using latest drilling technologies. the balance between newly discovered oil reserve and consumption directional and horizontal drilling technology have opened new resources and improved productivity: Also hydraulic fracturing technology increases the yield of a well after the reservoir is fractured by injecting fluids under high pressures. oil recovery ratio raised to 50-70% from the former around 30%. Production cost: ME: $2/bbl small oil fields in Texas: $17/bbl Exploration ratio: Number of drillings per possible oil field: US is the biggest Extended Reach Drilling (ERD) technology: 2011: the world longest borehole at Odoptu fields Sakhlin-I, with 12km deep and horizontal desplacement of 11km Zonal Isolation technology: filled hollows and gaps by ethanol bentonite. Japan should invest for: promotion for new exploration activities of natural resources technological innovation for resources development

3. 石油神話: 世界の石油市場: 最終製品のみならず、石油産業の全プロセス、即ち。探鉱、採掘、取引、輸送、精錬、販売、消費などを含む市場 上流工程: 石油の安定創業を図るために、油層への最適アクセスを維持するために、生産設備の更新を迫られる。 中規模鉱山会社は、このような自転車操業状態 石油の上流工程はハイリスク産業、鉱量確保のため高価な掘削作業を続けなければならない。$10M/本の掘削を数十本で、１〜10億ドルの費用がかかる。 下流工程: 大型タンカーによる輸送 精錬操業 輸送コストは、原油価格の5%以下 天然ガスの輸送コストは非常に高い。 石油の価格リーダーはいない。 オイル市場: NYMEX: NYマーカンタイル市場、世界最大の先物市場 (石油、天然ガス、灯油、ガソリン、金銀銅) IPE： London、現在はICE 投資家：石油採掘業者、精錬業者の他、ファンド、金融機関、ブローカー 三大石油指標: WTI 北海ブレント ドバイ (オマーン) オイル リアルタイムの石油統計がない 情報の非対称性 価格弾力性が極めて低い 石油市場は不安定、循環トレンド 裁定取引: 国際石油取引の40%はスポット取引 日本だけは90%の取引が中東との長期契約 密度は水とほとんど同じ (0.8 - 0.9) 輸送コストは、製品の5%以下 輸出者と輸入者は変動する。 精錬以降は区別できない；差別的な禁輸措置はあまり効果的でない。 価格リーダー: 1970年代の石油危機以降の価格カルテル 1990-91の湾岸戦争 2004年の不安定供給 価格リーダー: 1970年代までは、セブンシスターズが世界石油生産の70%支配 (現在は約10%) 1980年代、OPECカルテル 第一次石油ショック (1973-74) $3から$12/bblへ サウジ、イラン、イラク、クウェートによるメジャー権益の国有化 (UAEを除く) 第二次石油ショック (1979-80) $34/bblに上昇 (1973年の11倍) あまりにも急激な上昇で、1986年には需給減。OPECカルテル崩壊 現在は、OPECリーダーのサウジが、1970年代の反省から、持続可能な石油価格を目指す。 1980年代の後は価格リーダー不在 現在のOPEC (生産量は約40%)は、主要石油輸出国の協力機構 誰が石油価格を支配しているか それは石油市場 NYMEXやIPE 日本の中東からの輸入は長期固定価格。 市場メカニズム: WTI、北海ブレントの石油取引 生産量は、1M bbl/d (世界の2%) 但し、先物取引は 100M bbl/d 情報の非対称性：在国、需給統計 短期の価格弾力性：極めて小さい 石油価格変動：5-10年の長期変動 ハーフィンダール指標 上位50社の市場シェアの二乗の合計。 0から１までの数値で、市場の独占度 (支配力)を示す。 米国の司法省によれば、0.25 以上は独占状態 天然ガス市場は、石油市場とは全く異なる。 石油埋蔵量 可採鉱量: 可採年数は約40年 新規埋蔵量と消費量のバランス 水平抗井技術：石油回収率50-70%に上昇 (それまでは約30%) 大偏距掘削技術 地層分離技術：エタノールベントナイトにて孔隙を閉塞 今後の日本の投資: 新規資源開発の推進 資源開発のための技術革新

>Top 4. New energy strategy: Structural change of oil demand: Demand for light crude oil surges: WTI (West Texas Intermediate) soars. gasoline for cars and planes, and kerosine for heaters natural gas for power generation and industries. Demand for heavy crude oil is unpopular: Dubai oil is heavy and contains more sulphur. C-type heavy oil demand for paper & pulp industry. Japanese refineries are equipped for desulfurization plants >Top Technological innovation: IT utilization for exploitation Knowledge-base management demand increase for natural gas hybrid car and EV Evolutional system moves intermittedly between the following two phases Red Queen's hypothesis: "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place." In reference to an evolutionary system, continuing adaptation is needed in order for a species to maintain its relative fitness amongst the systems being coevolved with. Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, ESS: Not only biological evolution, but also technological innovation or business style may follow this pattern. What had happened at the oil crisis in 1970s: Oil price soared 4 times in the first oil crisis in 1973, and furthermore 3 times in 1979; almost 10 times higher during the twice crisis. Reallocation function of the oil market: spot trade, reallocation trade. Assurance of stable supply: risk diversification is most important: one source, one route is risky. Oil is not a strategic goods, but an important goods.

4. 新エネルギー戦略: 石油需要の構造変化: 軽質油に対する需要増 WTI上昇 自動車・航空機用ガソリン、暖房用経由 発電・産業用へは天然ガス 重質油に対する需要停滞 ドバイ油は重質かつ高硫黄 紙パルプ業界向け重油の需要 日本の精錬所は脱硫装置装備 進化システムは以下2相を間欠的に動く 赤の女王仮説："種・固体・遺伝子が生き残るためには進化しなければならない。"ことの比喩 進化的に安定な戦略 (ESS)： 生物進化のみならず、技術革新やビジネススタイルもこのパターンを踏襲 安定供給: リスク分散が重要：1資源1ルートへの依存がリスキー 石油は、重要物資ではあるが、戦略物資ではない。

>Top 5. Natural Gas: Natural gas is the ultimate fossil energy: History has been pursue of higher calorie and higher hydrogen energy: from charcoal to coal, oil, then natural gas the highest hydrogen-contained fuel: methane, CH4 CO2 emission per calorific value is about 55% of that of coal. Calorific value: Natural gas 13,300 kcal/kg Coal 5000-7000; Oil 9250 kcal/kb Non-toxicity: methane and LNG Re: Natural gas reserve: Source: The Economist, Briefing the future of natural gas, Aug. 2011 more reserves (60 years) than oil (40 years) natural gas reserved layer is deeper than oil in general. Composition of natural gas: (Source: Wiki) Alaska: Methane 99.81%; Ethane 0.07% Brunei: Methane 89.83%; Ethane 5.89% Abu Dhabi: Methane 82.07%; Ethane 15.86% Transportation： Pipeline: North America, Russia-East Europe, North Africa-EU (about 96%) LNG tanker: ME and SE Asia to Japan (about 4%) Use application: Thermal electric power plant (about 2/3) City gas Automobile Physical properties: Methane Ethane Propane Butane M-formula CH4 C2H6 C3H8 C4H10 M-weight 16 30 44 58 Boiling point ºC -161.5 -88.7 -42.2 -0.5/-11.7 Critical temp ºC -82.6 32.2 96.7 152/135 Critical press 45.4 48.8 42 37.7/36 Sp. gr, b.p 0.425 0.546 0.580 0.605/0.590 Sp.gr, 0ºC 0.554 1.047 1.522 2.006 Strategic viewpoint of Japan: Diversification of energy supply source Diversification of energy (from oil to natural gas) Installation of pipeline, particularly north Asian oil/gas pipeline network Promotion of import from Sakhalin natural gas Bridging solution from denuclear plant, and sufficient development of sustainable energy.

5. 天然ガス: 天然ガスは究極の化石エネルギー: 高カロリー、高水素化の歴史 メタンは、最高水素化エネルギー 発熱量：天然ガス13,300、石炭5000-7000、石油9250 kcal/kg 無毒性：メタンもLNGも 天然ガスの埋蔵量：左図 石油より多い(60年) 石油地層より深い 天然ガスの組成: アラスカ：メタン99.81% ブルネイ；メタン89.83% アブダビ：メタン82.07% 輸送: パイプライン (96%) LNGタンカー (4%) 用途: 火力発電 都市ガス 自動車 物理特性：左表 -160で液化 比重0.42 日本のエネルギー戦略の課題 エネルギー供給源の多様化 エネルギーの多様化 (石油から天然ガスへ) パイプラインの敷設；特に北アジアのパイプラインネットワーク サハリン天然ガスの輸入促進 脱原発、再生可能エネルギーの本格開発までのつなぎソリューションとして

Comment

Natural resources can be secured not only money, but also national strategy and long-term investment for technology and human expertise. In Japanese 'yudan' literally means oilless situation, actually means 'unvigilant, unwarily, or unguarded. Japanese proverb 'Yudan taiteki' literally means 'Oilless situation becomes a big enemy', which corresponds to 'Idleness is the devil's worship.' Also, Japanese 'Aburawo uru' literally means 'sell oil', actually means 'idle one's time away' , 'shoot the breeze', or 'small talk.' Then what will be the translation of 'Abura uri abura uri uri abura uri' (Oil seller sells oil together with shooting the breeze.); what about this translation, "Big oil trade can be done after many small talks." To secure oil, seemingly glorious vainness is needed.

天然資源を確保するには、マネーだけなく、国家戦略と技術や専門家への長期投資が必要である。 日本語の「油断」は、警戒を怠ること。 「油断大敵」はIdleness is the devil's worship. (怠慢は悪魔の称賛) また、日本語の「油を売る」は、米語では、"shoot the breeze"と言い、これは無駄話、だぼらを吹くの意味。 では、"油売り油売り売り油売り"は、どう訳すべきか。"Big oil trade can be done after many small talks."というのはどうだろうか？ 石油を確保するには、一見壮大な無駄が必要である。