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beyondoil

Essence of Oil Economics

Beyond geopolitical viewpoint

Cat: ECO
Pub: 2005
#: 1208b

Kazuhiko Fuji (藤 和彦)

up 12421

Title

Essence of Oil Economics

石油を読む:地政学的発想を超えて

Index
Tag

Light crude oil; Super majors; China since 1993; Hormuz - Malacca; NYMEX - WTI; Price elasticity; VLCC; OPEC - OAPEC; North Sea Brent; Herfindahl Index; Natural gas

Why?
  • Energy problem, including oil and oil gas, and sustainable energy is getting a noticeable issue of global economics, particularly after sharp rise of oil price in 2004, and the fatal accident at Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011.
  • Oil is still major source of energy and its economics directly affects global economis.
  • Here covers wide range of topics of the present oil economics.
  • エネルギー問題は、石油や天然ガス、再生可能エネルギーを含め、特に2004年の石油高騰、および2011年の福島原発の大事故の後、再度、注目テーマになりつつある。
  • 石油はまだ主要なエネルギー源であり、その経済は世界経済に直結する。
  • ここでは石油経済の現状を広くカバーしている。
Original resume
Japanese resume
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0. Introduction:

  • Unit:
    • bbl = 159 litter
    • bbl/d x 53 = ton/y (sp.gr = 0.9)
    • pipeline capacity (diameter: 1220 mm) : 80 - 90 K ton
    • oil 1 ton ≒ gas 1000 sq.m

0. 序:

  • 単位:
    • 1バーレル=159リットル
    • バーレル/日 x 53 = ton/年
    • パイプライン容量:直径1220 mm
    • 石油1トン≒ガス1000 m3
WTIoilprice
>Top

1. Real culprit of oil price:

  • WTI Crude Oil Price 1978 - 2012: (Above chart)
  • 2004.10.12: WTI Oil Price surged to $54.45 /bbl due to Hurricane attack to the US refinery.
    • Re: Unit: bbl /d = 50 ton/y
    • Recent sharp rise is due to future purchase, not reflected real supply and demand.
  • The shortage is not crude oil, but light crude oil.
    • Demand of WTI and North Sea Brent oil, rather than ME Oil.
    • Gasoline price surged more than $2/gallon in US since 2004.
    • Ban of gasoline additive MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl Either) to raise octane number in CA.
    • Reverse Oil Shock since 1985: stagnant oil price less than $20/bbl.
  • M&A of oil industry: ExxonMobil: Former Seven Sisters, now Supermajors:
    1. ExxonMobil: Standard Oil of NJ, and Standard Oil of NY: Sales $477B
    2. Royal Dutch Shell: $458B
    3. BP: Anglo-Persian Oil: $366B
    4. Chevron: Standard Oil of CA, Gulf Oil, and Texaco: $221B
    5. TOTAL: CFP: Euro180B
    6. ConocoPhilips: $!89B
    • World share of Supermajors:
      • Oil share : 10% of production, 3% of oil reserve
  • Reasons for shrinking activities by Supermajors:
    • less investment and less inventory policies by Supermajors.
    • SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) by DOE, 2005: 727 Mbbl (=21Mbbl x 34 days of US oil consumption) in artificial caverns in salt domes in Gulf of Mexico.
  • Oil: from geopolitical items to sensitive commodity:
    • expansion of global oil market
    • volatility of oil price like casino game
    • weakling of political impact of OPEC countries:
    • oil emergency stockpile in advanced countries.
  • Chinese position in oil market:
    • Oil consumption (Top-7) Mbbl/d
      • US 18.9; China 8.2; Japan 4.4 India 3.0; Russia 2.7l; Brazil 2.5l, Germany 2.4
    • China became oil importing country since 1993; import dependency 50% (2009), 65% (2015), then70% (2020)
    • Major sources of import: ME, Russia, Kazakhstan
    • Companies:
      • CNPC: China National Petroleum Corp (Petro China)
      • Sinopec: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
      • CNOOC: China National Offshore Oil Corp.
  • siberia_PipelineEastern Siberia - Pacific Oil Pipeline (ESPO): Key to oil diplomacy for Russia, China and Japan:
      • Common route: Taishet - Skovorodino: 2,700km
      • Chinese route: Skovorodino - Daqing: 1,000km, construction cost $2.9B, capacity 0.6Mbbl/d; Export to China only.
      • Pacific ocean route: Skovorodino - Pervoznaya, Nakhodka: 2,100km; construction cost $6.5B; capacity 1Mbbl/d; Export to Japan, Korea, US, etc.
  • OPEC (Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries)
    • Members: 12 countries
    • Chart: opec_productionOil Production (Mbbl/d)
    • Oil production of OPEC has been slumbered during these two decades.
    • The increase of production has been done by non-OPEC like Russian and North Sea.
    • Saudi Arabia has taken cautious attitude in increase of their production.
    • Also Supermajors are also deliberate on active development, fearing sudden price decline.
      (Their break even price would be $20-25 /bbl)
  • Russian situation:
    • 2006: Yukos was wiped out, due to tax evasion of Mikhail Khodorkovskii, CEO.
    • Production: 9.9 Mbbl/d, nearly equal to Saudi Arabia
    • Oil related companies:
      • Gazprom: Natural gas monopoly
      • Lukoil: largest oil producer
      • Rosneft: oil and gas exploration company
      • TNK-BP: J/V with BP
      • Bashneft: largest oil refining company
      • Transneft: pipeline monopoly
    • New wellbore technology induced:
      • oil layers management technology
      • horizontal well technology
      • fracturing technology
    • BTC_pipelineExport infrastructure is bottle neck:
      • The Bosporus straits:
        • Oil export pass the strait: 2.7 -3 Mbbl/d
        • Turkey government restrict the passage of tanker (>200m length) in the daytime only, with minimum interval of 90 min.
      • BTC Pipeline: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline; completed 2005, 30% owned by BP; 1,770km
      • Russo-China honeymoon relation since 2005 from Russo-US.

1. 原油価格の真犯人:

  • 世界の石油価格推移: 1978 - 2012: (上記表)
  • 不足しているのは、軽質油であって、原油ではない。
    • 需要は、WTI, 北海ブレントであって中東の石油ではない
    • ガソリン価格は、米国CA州で$2/gallon 以上
    • オクタン価向上のための添加剤MTBEの禁止措置 (CA州)
    • 1985年以来の逆オイルショック:$20/bbl以下のレベル
  • 石油会社のM&A: スーパーメジャー:
    1. エクソンモービル
    2. ロイヤル・ダッチ・シェル
    3. BP
    4. シェブロン
    5. トタール
    6. コノコ・フィリップス
    • スーパーメジャーの世界シェア
      • 石油生産の10%、埋蔵量にお3%
  • スーパーメジャーの活動縮み志向
    • 投資抑制、低在庫政策
    • 米国のSPR (戦略的石油備蓄): 727 Mbbl
  • 石油:戦略物資から市況商品へ:
    • 世界石油市場の拡大
    • カジノゲームのような価格変動
    • OPEC諸国の政治的インパクト低下
    • 先進国での石油緊急備蓄
  • 石油市場における中国の状況:
    • 石油消費国 Mbbl/d
      • 米国18.9;中国8.2;日本4.4
    • 中国は1993年以来石油輸入国へ
    • 輸入先:中東、ロシア、カザフスタン
    • 中国の石油関連会社:
      • CNPC (中国石油天然気集団公司)
      • Sinopec (中国石油加工股份有限公司)
      • CNOOC (中国海洋石油総公司)
  • 東シベリア〜太平洋パイプライン (ESPO):
    • 共通ルート 2,700km:タイシェット〜スコボロディーノ;
    • 中国ルート: スコボロディーノ〜大慶 1,000km;建設費$2.9B;
    • 太平洋ルート:スコボロディーノ〜ペルボズナヤ (ナホトカ) 2,100km;建設費$6.5B;日本、韓国、米国向けなど
  • OPEC (石油輸出機構):
    • 加盟国:現在12ヶ国
    • 生産量:左図。
      • 過去20年間停滞。
      • むしろ増産は、非OPECであるロシア、北海原油
      • サウジアラビアは増産に慎重
      • スーパーメジャーも、価格下落を恐れて慎重
  • ロシアの状況:
    • 2006:ユコス解体
      • M. Khodorkovski逮捕
    • 生産量:9.9 Mbbl/d
    • 石油関連会社:
      • Gazprom: 天然ガス
      • Lukoil: 最大石油生産
      • Rosneft: 石油ガス開発
      • TNK-BP: BPとの合弁
      • Bashneft: 石油精製
      • Transneft: パイプライン
    • 新掘削技術導入:
      • 油層マネジメント技術
      • 水平坑井技術
      • フラクチャリング技術
    • 輸出インフラがボトルネック
      • ボスポラス海峡
      • 石油輸出量: 2.7-3 Mbbl/d
      • トルコ政府による海峡通過制限
    • BTCパイプライン: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhanパイプライン、2005年完成、1,770km
    • 中ロ石油蜜月時代:2005〜(それまでは米ロ蜜月時代)

     

 

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2. Resources Paranoia - China:

  • chil_oilimportChina became oil importing country since 1993:
    • 2004: Wen Jiabao emphasized resources of oil and natural gas will be essential factor of Chinese economic development.
    • Ban of oil export from Daqing in Heirongchiang oil field.
    • Rapid transition from bicycles to private cars:
      • in 2030: surpass the number of US cars.
      • Chinese car demand:
        13M/2009 -> 18M/2010 -> 20M?/2020
    • Gasoline is chearper in China: about 1/3 of Japan.
    • China is increasingly dependent on ME oil: 58% -> around 70% in 2015
    • Chinese oil majors:
      • CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec: no more business restrictions
      • obtained mining rights in such as Indonesia, Sudan, Angola.
      • Package deal: bargaining power as a big oil & gas consumer.
      • imports 50% from ME, 25% from Africa.
      • Premier Wen Jiabao was specialist of oil and mineral resources development.
  • kazakh-china_pipelineKazakhstan-China oil pipeline: Silk road pipeline
    • CNPC and KazMunayGas
    • Signed in 1997, finally completed in 2009.
    • Length 2,228 km from Atyrau in Kazakhstan to Alashnkou in China's Xinjiang.
    • Capacity: 120 Kbbl/d, then will be upgraded 400 Kbbl/d
    • Cost: $700M
  • Resouce Paranoia: overresponse to oil resources potentialty:
    • Spratly Islands:
      • located in South China Sea.
      • comprises more than 30,000 islands and reefs.
      • claimant nations:
        • Brunei, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam
      • have no indigenous inhabitants
      • undermined oil and natural gas potential
    • Senkaku Islands (Pinnacle Islands):
      • effectively controled by Japan
      • dispute over island ownership
      • oil and natural gas potential, but its exploitation cost could be expensive.
  • Sea lane defense:
    • Straits of Hormuz
    • Straits of Malacca
      • only 200 nautical mile (360 km) wide between Malay peninsula and Sumatra island.
      • 23 m deep, which is scarcely enough for VLCC (300K tons tunker)
      • 164 ships per day (6.8 shipe per hour)
    • Straits of Sunda:
      • too shallow for VLCC
    • Strait of Lombok
      • longer route
  • New oil route plan:
    • Myanmar - Kunming, Yunnan pipeline plan
      • 1,500 km
    • Trans Malay penninsula pipeline
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR):
    • 90 days storage of prior year's net oil imports

2. 資源パラノイア・中国:

  • 中国は1993年以降石油輸入国に転じた。
    • 2004:温家宝首相発言;石油と天然ガスは中国経済の発展にとって死活問題。
    • 大慶油田の輸出凍結
    • 自動車社会:2030年には米国を抜く
    • 中国の自動車需要:
      13M/2009 -> 18M/2010 -> 20M?/2020
    • ガソリンは安価 (日本の1/3)
    • 中東依存度上昇:58%→70%/2015
    • 中国の石油大手
      • CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec
      • 中東から50%、アフリカから25%輸入
  • カザフスタン〜中国パイプライン (シルクロード・パイプライン)
    • 1997年調印、2009完成
    • 総延長2,228km
    • 輸送容量:120 Kbbl/d、今後400 Kbbl/dに増加予定
    • 費用:$7億
  • 石油利権への過剰反応
    • 南沙諸島:
    • 尖閣列島:
  • シーレーン防衛:
    • ホルムズ海峡
    • マラッカ海峡
      • 幅200海里
      • 深度23m
      • 164隻/日通過
    • スンダ海峡
      • 浅すぎる
    • ロンボック海峡
      • 遠回り
  • 新石油ルート計画:
    • ミャンマー〜昆明間パイプライン
      • 1,500km
    • マレー半島横断パイプライン
  • 戦略的石油備蓄 (SPR)
    • 90日分
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3. Mythology of oil:

  • Global oil market:
    • is not only the market for the end product, but whole process of oil industry, inducing exploration, extraction, trade, transportation, refining, sales, and consumption, etc.
    • Upperstream:
      • in order to maintain stable exploitation of oil, the mining company must continue drilling to find proper access to oil layers, always renewing production facilities.
      • smaller size of mining companies (other than majors operating in Middle East countries) are obliged to continue such shoestring operation.
      • upper stream mining operation is a high-risk industry, spending expensive excavation (about $10M per drill) as much as several tens of drilling to confirm probable oil reserve; costing from $100M to $1B.
      • Thus only major oil mining companies are available in such huge risky investment.
    • Downstream:
      • There are such downstream market as delivery services by huge tankers, and refining operations.
      • Delivery cost is less than 5% of oil price.
        • While, delivery cost of natural gas much expensive.
    • Oil market:
      • NYMEX (NY Mercantile Exchange): the world biggest derivative market, including oil, natural gas, kerosene, gasoline, gold, silver, copper
      • IPE (International Petroreum Exchange) in London: now internet-based marketplaces operated by ICE (Intercontinental exchange)
      • Investors: comprises funds, finanantial institutions, brokers as well as oil producers and refining companies.
      • Three major oil price index:
        1. WTI: West Texas Intermediate:
          • WTI is only 1Mbbl/d (=less than 2% of world oil trade volume 80 Mbbl/d)
          • WTI's actual production is 0.5 Mbbl/d、but the derivative trade is more than 100 Mbbl/d
        2. The North Sea; Brent Crude
        3. Dubai (or Oman) oil
      • Realtime oil statistics is unavalable.
        • asynmetric nature of oil information.
        • price elesticity is very small.
        • Thus, oil market tends to unstable; showing cyclical trend.
  • Arbtrage transaction:
    • 40% of global oil trade is spot basis.
      • Only Japan is exceptional: 90% of oil transaction is long-term contract with ME countries.
    • specific gravity is nearly equal to water (0.8 - 0.98)
    • half around-the-globe delivery cost is less than 5% ($1 of 1 bbl=159litter) transported by VLCC (300K tons, 21m draft)
    • exporter and importer of oil are changeable.
    • the end product after refinery cannot be distinguishable, which means oil selective embargo could be not be very effective.
  • Oil crisis:
    • price cartel after the oil crisis in 1970s,
    • gulf war period in 1990-91, and
    • uncertain supplying period in 2004.
  • Price leaders:
    • until 1970s: major oil companies called Seven Sisters controls 70% of world oil production (now only around 10%)
    • until middle of 1980s: price cartel by OPEC
      • First oil crisis (1973-74): OPEC (mostly OAPEC) raised oil price from $3/bbl to $12/bbl (4 times)
      • Nationalization of majors' interest by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait (except for UAE):
      • Second oil crisis (1979 -80): raised to #34/bbl. (3 times), or 11 times more compared before 1973.
      • But too much raise of oil price caused sharp decline in 1986, and OPEC cartel fell down.
      • Now Saudi Arabia, leader of OPEC, aims sustainable oil price learning from inefficient raise in 1970s.
    • after 1980s: there are no significant price leaders.
    • Present OPEC (=Organization of petroleum Exporting Countries) (now their production share about 40%) functions as cooperative organization of major oil exporting countries, or pseudo-cartel to prevent sharp decline of oil price.
    • Who controls oil price? It is the market;
      • say crude oil futures market at NYMEX and IPE (International Petroleum Exchange in London) ; about 40% is spot transaction.
    • Japanese import from ME is exceptionally long-term fixed transaction.
  • Market mechanism:
    • determined by WTI and the North Sea Brent oil transaction:
    • Production capacity is about 1M bbl/d, which shares less than 2% of world trade of 80M bbl/d.
    • But trade volume of futures market ia more than 100M bbl/d
    • incompleteness of oil information: inventory information is quite incomplete(except US). IEA publishes the inventory data two month later.
    • short-term price elasticity (= change in demand divided by change in price) is too small. (essential commodity)
    • oil price fluctuate depend on less preestablished harmony, or shows longer cyclical change beyond 5-10 years.
  • Herfindahl Index (or Herfindahl-Hirshman Index, or HHI):
    • is defined as the sum of squares of the market shares of 50 largest firms; which indicates decrease in competition or increase of market power.
      • monopoly: 1^2=1
      • two 50% share each: 2 x 0.5^2 = 0.5
      • one 50%, one 30%, one 20%: 0.5^2 + 0.3^2 + 0.2^2 = 0.38
      • one 50% and five 10% share: 0.5^2 + 5 x 0.1^2 = 0.3
      • one 30%, one 20%, five 10% shares: 0.3^2 + 0.2^2 + 5 x 0.1^2 = 0.09 + 0.04 + 0.05 = 0.18
    • US Dept. of Justice considers; HHI 0.01 - 0.18 is moderately concentrated, and above 0.25 to be concentrated.
  • Natural gas market is totally different from oil market.
  • OIl reserve:
    • Minable ore reserve:
      • production-ratio is estimated about 40 years.
        • this had been 30 year about 25 years ago.
        • this minable years must be maintained by continued exploration activities using latest drilling technologies.
      • the balance between newly discovered oil reserve and consumpion
      • directional and horizontal drilling technology have opened new resources and improved productivity:
      • Also hydraulic fracturing technology increases the yield of a well after the reservoir is fractured by injecting fluids under high pressures.
      • oil recovery ratio raised to 50-70% from the former around 30%.
    • Production cost:
      • ME: $2/bbl
      • small oilfields in Texas: $17/bbl
    • Exploration ratio:
      • Number of drillings per possible oil field: US is the biggest
    • Extended Reach Drilling (ERD) technology:
      • 2011: the world longest borehole at Odoptu fiels Sakhlin-I, with 12km deep and horizontal desplacement of 11km
    • Zonal Isolation technology: filled hollows and gaps by ethanol bentonite.
  • Japan should invest for:
    • promption for new exploration activities of natural resources
    • technological innovation for resources development

3. 石油神話:

  • 世界の石油市場:
    • 最終製品のみならず、石油産業の全プロセス、即ち。探鉱、採掘、取引、輸送、精錬、販売、消費などを含む市場
    • 上流工程:
      • 石油の安定創業を図るために、油層への最適アクセセウを維持するために、生産設備の更新を迫られる。
      • 中規模鉱山会社は、このような自転車操業状態
      • 石油の上流工程はハイリスク産業、鉱量確保のため高価な掘削作業を続けなければならない。$10M/本の掘削を数十本で、1〜10億ドルの費用がかかる。
    • 下流工程:
      • 大型タンカーによる油層
      • 精錬操業
      • 輸送コストは、原油価格の5%以下
      • 天然ガスの輸送コストは非常に高い。
      • 石油の価格リーダーはいない。
    • オイル市場:
      • NYMEX: NYマーカンタイル市場、世界最大の先物市場 (石油、天然ガス、灯油、ガソリン、金銀銅)
      • IPE: London、現在はICE
      • 投資家:石油採掘業者、精錬業者の他、ファンド、金融機関、ブローカー
      • 三大石油指標:
        • WTI
        • 北海ブレント
        • ドバイ (オマーン) オイル
      • リアルタイムの石油統計がない
        • 情報の非対称性
        • 価格弾力性が極めて低い
        • 石油市場は不安定、循環トレンド
  • 裁定取引:
    • 国際石油取引の40%はスポット取引
      • 日本だけは90%の取引が中東との長期契約
    • 密度は水とほとんど同じ (0.8 - 0.9)
    • 輸送コストは、製品の5%以下
    • 輸出者と輸入者は変動する。
    • 精錬以降は区別できない;差別的な禁輸措置はあまり効果的でない。
  • 価格リーダー:
    • 1970年代の石油危機以降の価格カルテル
    • 1990-91の湾岸戦争
    • 2004年の不安定供給
  • 価格リーダー:
    • 1970年代までは、セブンシスターズが世界石油生産の70%支配 (現在は約10%)
    • 1980年代、OPECカルテル
      • 第一次石油ショック (1973-74)
        $3から$12/bblへ
      • サウジ、イラン、イラク、クウェートによるメジャー権益の国有化 (UAEを除く)
      • 第二次石油ショック (1979-80)
        $34/bblに上昇 (1973年の11倍)
      • あまりにも急激な上昇で、1986年には需給減。OPECカルテル崩壊
      • 現在は、OPECリーダーのサウジが、1970年代の反省から、持続可能な石油価格を目指す。
    • 1980年代の後は価格リーダー不在
    • 現在のOPEC (生産量は約40%)は、主要石油輸出国の協力機構
    • 誰が石油価格を支配しているか
      • それは石油市場
      • NYMEXやIPE
    • 日本の中東からの輸入は長期固定価格。
  • 市場メカニズム:
    • WTI、北海ブレントの石油取引
    • 生産量は、1M bbl/d (世界の2%)
    • 但し、先物取引は 100M bbl/d
    • 情報の非対称性:在国、需給統計
    • 短期の価格弾力性:極めて小さい
    • 石油価格変動:5-10年の長期変動
  • ハーフィンダール指標
    • 上位50社の市場シェアの二乗の合計。
    • 0から1までの数値で、市場の独占度 (支配力)を示す。
    • 米国の司法省によれば、0.25 以上は独占状態
  • 天然ガス市場は、石油市場とは全く異なる。
  • 石油埋蔵量
    • 可採鉱量:
      • 可採年数は約40年
      • 新規埋蔵量と消費量のバランス
      • 水平抗井技術:石油回収率50-70%に上昇 (それまでは約30%)
    • 大偏距掘削技術
    • 地層分離技術:エタノールベントナイトにて孔隙を閉塞
  • 今後の日本の投資:
    • 新規資源開発の推進
    • 資源開発のための技術革新

 

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4. New energy strategy:

  • Structural change of oil demand:
    • Demand for light crude oil surges:
      • WTI (West Texas Intermediate) soars.
      • gasoline for cars and planes, and kelosine for heaters
      • natural gas for power generation and industries.
    • Demand for heavy crude oil is unpopular:
      • Dubai oil is heavy and contains more sulpher.
      • C-type heavy oil demand for paper & pulp industry.
      • Japanese refineries are equipped for desulfrization plants
    • Technological innovation:
      • IT utilization for exploitation
      • Knowledge-base management
      • demand increase for natural gas
      • hybrid car and EV
  • Evolutional system moves intermittedly between the following two phases
    • Red Queen's hypothesis: "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."
      • In reference to an evolutionary system, continuing adaptation is needed in order for a species to maintain its relative fitness amongst the systems being co-evolved with.
    • Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, ESS:
    • Not only biological evolution, but also technological innovation or business style may follow this pattern.
  • What had happened at the oil crisis in 1970s:
    • Oil price soared 4 times in the first oil crisis in 1973, and futhermore 3 times in 1979; almost 10 times higher during the twice crisis.
    • Reallocation function of the oil market: spot trade, reallocation trade.
  • Assurance of stable supply:
    • risk diversification is most important: one source, one route is risky.
    • Oil is not a strategic goods, but an important goods.

4. 新エネルギー戦略:

  • 石油需要の構造変化:
    • 軽質油に対する需要増
      • WTI上昇
      • 自動車・航空機用ガソリン、暖房用経由
      • 発電・産業用へは天然ガス
    • 重質油に対する需要停滞
      • ドバイ油は重質かつ高硫黄
      • 紙パルプ業界向け重油の需要
      • 日本の精錬所は脱硫装置装備
  • 進化システムは以下2相を間欠的に動く
    • 赤の女王仮説:"種・固体・遺伝子が生き残るためには進化しなければならない。"ことの比喩
    • 進化的に安定な戦略 (ESS):
    • 生物進化のみならず、技術革新やビジネススタイルもこのパターンを踏襲
  • 安定供給:
    • リスク分散が重要:1資源1ルートへの依存がリスキー
    • 石油は、重要物資ではあるが、戦略物資ではない。
naturalgas2011 >Top

5. Natural Gas:

  • Natural gas is the ultimae fossil energy:
    • History has been pursue of higher calorie and higher hydrogen energy:
      • from chacol to coal, oil, then natural gas
      • the highest hydrogen-contained fuel: methine, CH4
      • CO2 emission per calorific value is about 55% of that of coal.
    • Calorific value: Natural gas 13,300 kcal/kg
      • Coal 5000-7000; Oil 9250 kcal/kb
    • Non-toxicity: methane and LNG
  • Re: Natural gas reserve:
    • Source: The Economist, Briefing the future of natural gas, Aug. 2011
    • more reserves (60 years) than oil (40 years)
    • natural gas reserved layer is deeper than oil in general.
  • Composition of natural gas: (Souce: Wiki)
    • Alaska: Methane 99.81%; Ethane 0.07%
    • Brunei: Methane 89.83%; Ethane 5.89%
    • Abu Dhabi: Methane 82.07%; Ethane 15.86%
  • Transportation:
    • Pipeline: North America, Russia-East Europe, North Africa-EU (about 96%)
    • LNG tunker: ME and SE Asia to Japan (about 4%)
  • Use application:
    • Thermal electric power plant (about 2/3)
    • City gas
    • Automobile
  • Physical properties:
  • Methane Ethane Propane Buthane
    M-formula
    CH4
    C2H6
    C3H8
    C4H10
    M-weight
    16
    30
    44
    58
    Boiling point ºC
    -161.5
    -88.7
    -42.2
    -0.5/-11.7
    Critical temp ºC
    -82.6
    32.2
    96.7
    152/135
    Critical press
    45.4
    48.8
    42
    37.7/36
    Sp. gr, b.p
    0.425
    0.546
    0.580
    0.605/0.590
    Sp.gr, 0ºC
    0.554
    1.047
    1.522
    2.006
  • Strategic viewpoint of Japan:
    • Diversification of energy supply source
    • Diversification of energy (from oil to natural ga)
    • Installation of pipeline, particularly north asian oil/gas pipeline network
    • Promotion of import from Sakhaline natural gas
    • Bridging solution from de-nuclere plant, and sufficient development of sustainable energy.

5. 天然ガス:

  • 天然ガスは究極の化石エネルギー:
    • 高カロリー、高水素化の歴史
    • メタンは、最高水素化エネルギー
    • 発熱量:天然ガス13,300、石炭5000-7000、石油9250 kcal/kg
    • 無毒性:メタンもLNGも
  • 天然ガスの埋蔵量:左図
      • 石油より多い(60年)
      • 石油地層より深い
  • 天然ガスの組成:
    • アラスカ:メタン99.81%
    • ブルネイ;メタン89.83%
    • アブダビ:メタン82.07%
  • 輸送:
    • パイプライン (96%)
    • LNGタンカー (4%)
  • 用途:
    • 火力発電
    • 都市ガス
    • 自動車
  • 物理特性:左表
    • -160で液化
    • 比重0.42
  • 日本のエネルギー戦略の課題
    • エネルギー供給源の多様化
    • エネルギーの多様化 (石油から天然ガスへ)
    • パイプラインの敷設;特に北アジアのパイプラインネットワーク
    • サハリン天然ガスの輸入促進
    • 脱原発、再生可能エネルギーの本格開発までのつなぎソリューションとして

 

Comment
  • Natural resources can be secured not only money, but also national strategy and long-term investment for technology and human expertise.
  • In Japanese 'yudan' literally means oilless situation, actually means 'unvigilant, unwarily, or off-gurard.
  • Japanese proverb 'Yudan taiteki' literaly means 'Oiless situation becomes a big enemy', whch corresponds to 'Idleness is the devil's worship.'
  • Also, Japanese 'Aburawo uru' literally means 'sell oil', actually means 'idle one's time away' , 'shoot the breeze', or 'small talk.'
  • Then what will be the translation of 'Abura uri abura uri uri abura uri' (Oil seller sells oil togher with shooting the breeze.); what about this translation, "Big oil trade can be done after many small talks."
  • To secure oil, seemingly glorious vainness is needed.
  • 天然資源を確保するには、マネーだけなく、国家戦略と技術や専門家への長期投資が必要である。
  • 日本語の「油断」は、警戒を怠ること。
  • 「油断大敵」はIdleness is the devil's worship. (怠慢は悪魔の称賛)
  • また、日本語の「油を売る」は、米語では、"shoot the breeze"と言い、これは無駄話、だぼらを吹くの意味。
  • では、"油売り油売り売り油売り"は、どう訳すべきか。"Big oil trade can be done after many small talks."というのはどうだろうか?
  • 石油を確保するには、一見壮大な無駄が必要である。

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