- 1863: Jules Verne wrote a prophetic novel "Paris in the 20C."depicted glass skyscrapers, air conditioning, TV, elevators, high-speed trains, gasoline-powered automobiles, fax machines, and something resembling the Internet.
- 1863 Jules Verneは、「20Cのパリ」 によって未来を予測。高層ビル、エアコン、TV、エレベータ、高速鉄道、ガソリン自動車、FAXや、インターネットのようなものを予測
1. Future of the Computer:
- Mark Weiser: Xerox PARC
- Moore's law, 1965:
- computer power doubles about every 18 months.
- the line can be extend more than 100 years into the past.
- birthday card = computer power of Allied forces of 1945
- cell phone = NASA in 1969
- SONY Playstation: a military supercomputer of 1997
- to disappear into the fabric of our lives, everywhere, silently, seamlessly carrying out our wishes.
- Mark Weiserの予測:
Near Future (Present to 2030):
- VRD, virtual retinal display
- Internet contact lens; most efficient and rapid access to the brain.
- Driverless car:
- Urban Challenge: obey all traffic laws, avoid other robot cars, negotiate four-way intersections.
- GPS were declassified after the Cold War; 32 GPS satellites; using Doppler shift, the car's computer could determine position accurately.
- 4 walls screens
- complete 3D images in contact lens, glasses
- detect falsehoods in biography
- Flexible electronic paper
- OLED (organic light-emitting diodes)
- Laptop be a simple sheet of OLEDs.
- Window becomes a PC screen.
- files will move with us: seamless information anytime, anywhere
- Virtual world:
- can control an avatar
- haptic technology: with tiny pins controlled by a computer, simulating the texture of surface
- sophisticated treadmill
- Medical care:
- robotic doctor: diagnose up to 95% of all common ailments
- small MRI machine
- DNA chips: having millions of tiny sensors
- silently and effortlessly monitored several times a day: toilet, bathroom mirror, and clothes
- clothes, sensing irregularities in heartbeat, breathing, and brain waves; when you get dressed, you go online.
- Smart pill: chip into a pill with TV camera and radio; new meaning "Intel inside"
- Living in a fairy tale:
- looks like out of a fairy tale
- be able to slow down or reverse the aging process
- Augmented Reality:
Mid-Century (2030 to 2070):
- Computational power exceeds human brain
- inevitable collapse of Moore's law; a matter of international importance, with trillion of dollars at stake.
- limit of the speed of light: vibrates 10^14 cycles/sec; 10^11 bits of information on a single frequency.
- no limit to the amount of information
- miniaturizing transistors; UV light has a wavelength as small as 10 nm =30 atoms across
- Moore's law will finally collapse, when transistor hit the size of individual atoms; around 2020 or soon afterward; Silicon Valley may slowly turn into a rust belt; Post Silicon Era
- Heisenberg uncertain principle: cannot know both the position and velocity of any particle:
- thinners layer inside computer will be about 5 atom across
- causing the circuit to short-circuit
- Mixing real and virtual reality:
- able to see 360º view
- making objects invisible,
- make the invisible become visible; entire 3D image of the building
- Augmented reality:
- Universal translators:
- CAT (Computer Assisted Translation)
- lip-read technology
- bottleneck; neither hardware, nor bandwidth, but software. We cannot mass-produce the brain.
- Holograms and 3D:
- 3D image is an illusion.
- 3D holographic images far exceeds the capacity of today's internet.
- Screen shaped like a cylinder or dome where we sit inside.
- ムーアの法則の必然的な崩壊：これは国際的な大事件 →ポストシリコン時代
Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Mind over matter:
- We will control computers directly with our minds.
- the mind must be able to control objects.
- a computer has to decipher a person's wishes.
- ethics of mind reading
- BrainGate: Direct contact between human brain and a computer: in 1998, scientists put a tiny glass electrode directly into the brain who was paralyzed after a stroke.
- able to connect brain directly to mechanical arms and legs, bypassing the spinal cord.
- to pick up the neuron patterns corresponding to specific thoughts
- to reconstruct a picture of a person's visual experience from measurements of brain activity alone.
- to create "dictionary of thought"; then, may be able to decode a person's steam of consciousness.
- Telekinesis (=Psychokiness) and the power of the gods:
- the power of the gods of mythology to move objects by sheer thought. (like Star Wars)
- superconductors that can operate at room temperature, thereby allowing us to create huge magnetic fields that require little power.
- powerful magnetic fields: reduce friction revolutionizing transportation, and eliminate losses in electrical transportation.
- room-temperature superconductors may be hidden inside common items; if a current is turned on, it will become magnetic and can be moved by an external magnetic field that is controlled by your thoughts.
2. Future of AI:
End of humanity?
- Scientists worry machines may outsmart man.
- What happens if a robot becomes as intelligent as your spouse?
- "Rapture of the nerds"
- Robots that can think for itself and requires no input from humans. It is these autonomous robots that have eluded scientists for the past half century.
- ASIMO (Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility) of Honda:
- has the intelligence of an insect. Most of its motions have to be carefully programmed ahead of time.
- It will take many decades of hard work before robots become as smart as a mouse, rabbit, dog or cat, and then a monkey.
- 1997: IBM7S Deep Blue; beat the world chess champion Gary Kasparov; computing 11B operations/sec.
- brute computational power does not equal intelligence.
- Is the brain a digital computer?
- architecture of digital computer is quite different from that of the brain
- neural network is a complex jumble of neurons that constantly rewires itself.
- for a neural network; practice makes perfect.
- neural networks are based on the bottom-up approach.
- Two problems with robots:
- why computers have not been able to accomplish two key tasks that human s perform effortlessly:
patter recognition and 2) common sense.
- Top-down approach vs. bottom-up approach.
Near Future (Present to 2030)
- Expert systems:
- Japan: robots are seen as kindred spirits, playful and helpful, while in the West, children may scream in terror at robots.
- 30% of commercial robots are in Japan.
- ASIMO-like nurse
|Midcentury (2030 to 2070):
- Modular Robots:
- Our world may be full of robots: they might be hidden form view, performing unpleasant but crucial tasks.
- polymorphic robots; they can change shape, geometry, and function.
- robots used as surgeons as well as cooks and musicians.
- Emotional robots:
- to make choices:
one of the chief purposes of emotions is to give us values, so we can decide what is important, what is expensive, what is pretty, and what is precious. Without emotions, everything has the same value.
- Modeling the brain:
- the next step is actually model the entire brain.
- two ways to solve this colossal problem:
- use supercomputers to simulate the behavior of billions of neurons
- to actually locate every neuron in the brain
- IBM's Blue Gene; 500T operations/sec
- thinking process of a mouse brain; 2M neurons (not human 100B neuron)
- Taking apart the brain:
- the second approach:
- identifying the precise location of every neuron in the brain.
- dissecting the brain of a fruit fly; 1,000T byte of data. (human brain has 1M time more neurons)
|Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- When machines become conscious:
- robot creations will gradually rise up the evolutionary tree.
- it is only a matter of time before the machines exceed us in intelligence.
- within 30 years; to create superhuman intelligence; shortly after, the human ear will be ended.
- the problems has been the failure to clearly define consciousness and then a failure to quantify it.
- consciousness consists of three basic components:
- sensing and recognizing the environment
- planning for the future by setting goals and plans, stimulating the future and plotting strategy
- When robots exceed humans:
- Our role in history to give birth to our evolutionary successors; the fateful day when robots are smarter than us.
- Army of self-replicating robots will then create endless future generations of robots, each one smarter than the previous one.
- This process will explode exponentially, until they begin to devour the resources of the planet; the entire earth becomes a computer.
- Some might consume the entire universe, so that the universe becomes intelligent.
- Most likely scenario: Friendly AI:
- Three laws of robotics by Isaac Asimov:
- robots cannot harm humans
- they must obey humans
- they must protect themselves, in that order.
- we must add: robots cannot harm or enslave the human race.
- Merging with robots:
- Marvin Minsky: "Society of minds": consciousness is the sum of many separate algorithms and techniques that nature stumbled upon over million so years.
- new generation of robots that will marry biological and electronic systems to create entirely new architectures for robots.: will will be part robot and connected with the robots.
- cochlear implants: 150K people
- Star wars robotic hand:
- artificial smart hand; the motion of his mechanical fingers is then relayed to his brain so he has feedback.
- brain is extremely plastic, not fixed, and constantly rewires itself as it learns new tasks and adjusts to new situations.
- merging silicon and living cells not just to cure the ailments of the body but to enhance our capabilities.
- today's cochlear and retinal implants; we would be able to hear the sounds that only dogs can hear, or see UV, infrared, and X-rays.
- it might be possible to increase our intelligence as well.
- Surrogates and avatars:
- The entire human race willingly becomes robotic rather than face reality.
- Avatar: we might be able to live as alien beings.
- Roadblocks to the singularity:
- definition o "smart" is problematic.
- intelligence is more than just memory and speed.
- progress is more like punctured equilibrium.
3. Future of Medicine:
- Greek and Roman mythology: Eos and Tithonus
- Life extension without health and vigor can be an eternal punishment.
- Robert Lanza: a new breed of biologist: so many breakthroughs; like "tissue engineering"
- 1944: Erwin Schrödinger: "What is life?"
- 1953: Watson and Crick unlocked the structure of DNA, a double helix.
- Adenine, Thymine, Cytosine, and Guanine
- 2003: the Human Genome Project, cost $3B; heralded a new era in science.
- Biology is today an information science.
- 1944: シュレジンガー；生命とは何か
- 1953: DNA発見
- 2003: 人ゲノム解析
|Near Term (Present to 2030):
- Genome Medicine:
- What is driving this remarkable explosion in medicine is the quantum theory and the computer revolution.
- Quantum theory has given detailed models of how the atoms are arranged in each protein and DNA molecule.
- bioinformatics: using computers to rapidly scan and analyze the genome of thousands of organisms.
- Visit to the doctor:
- 50% of all common cancers involve a mutation in the gene protein 53 (p53)
- nanoparticles: deliver cancer fighting drugs directly to the cancer cells.
- tissue engineering: human body shop, can grow skin, blood, blood vessels, heart valves, cartilage, bone, nose, and ears in the lab from your own cells.
- Stem cells:
embryonic stem cells (ES cells)
- stem cell technology: mother of all cells
- to repair spinal cord injury
- also work on victims of strokes, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease
- salamanders have remarkable powers of regeneration: "pixie dust" from extracellular matrix
- 1997: clone sheep, Dolly
- then, a wide variety of clone: mice, goats, cats, pigs, dogs, horses, cattle.
- clones of clones of clones
- human cloning?: Catholic church may oppose.
- Gene therapy:
- royal disease: Queen Victoria was a carrier of hemophilia gene.
- gene therapy may be cable to cure many of 5,00 known genetic diseases, such as cystic fibrosis (Northern Europeans), Tay-Sachs disease (East European Jews), and sickle cell anemia (African Americans).
- Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID)
- metastatic melanoma
- cancer will probably remain deadly throughout this century.
- Coexisting with cancer:
- cancer: in US 25% of all death; cancer will claim the lives of 562K/yr or 1K/d
- cancer is basically a disease of our genes; normal cell "forgets how to die."
- two major types of cancer genes:
- oncogene: like an accelerator
- tumor suppressor: like a brake
- The Cancer Genome Project:
- plans to sequence the genes of most cancers; hundreds of times more ambitious that HGP
- lung cancer: astounding 23K mutations
- melanoma cancer: 33K mutations
- New treatments and therapies:
- gene therapy
- new drugs that target just the cancer cells
- new vaccinations against viruses that can cause cancer
- 1997: クローン羊
Midcentury (2030 to 2070):
- Gene therapy:
- targeted disease caused by mutations in a single gene
- then, caused by mutations in multiple genes
- such as diabetes, schizophrenia, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and heat disease
- Designer children:
- Twin's behavior: influenced 50% by genes, 50% by environment
- we are born with a "happiness set point": "
- Side effect of the biotech revolution:
- hidden Achilles's heel
- forgetting may be as important as remembering in making sense of this world and organizing our knowledge
- If you forget too much, you may be able to forget the pain of previous mistakes, but you also forget key facts and skills.
- if you remember too much, you many be able to remember important details, but you might by paralyzed by the memory of every hurt and setback.
- Only a trade-off between these two may yield optimal understanding.
- the danger may arise when one tries to genetically change one's personality. There are probably many genes that influence behavior, and they interact in complex ways.
- 精神分裂 (統合失調)
|Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Reversing aging:
- search for IMMORTALITY
- unified theory of aging
creates free radicals and oxidation, which damage the delicate molecular machinery of our cells, causing them to age.
- estrogen (female sex hormone); puts high
accelerate the growth of breast cancer.
- antioxidant superoxide dismutase (SOD);
can slow down the damage caused by free radicals.
- age genes;
life expectancy is only 35% determined by our genes
- by 2050:
we could live to be 150 or older.
- by 2100:
it might be possible to reverse the effect of aging by accelerating cell repair mechanism to live well beyond that.
- Caloric restriction:
- lowering 30% or more increases life span by 30%.
- David Sinclair of Harvard: discovered the gen SIR2. This gene is responsible for detecting the energy reserves of a cell.
- SIR2 has a counterpart called SIRT genes, which produce proteins called sirtuins. Then, chemical resveratrol was found which activate the sirtuins.
- red wine contains resveratrol.
- much of our aging is caused by sirtuins that have been diverted from their primary task, (wrap the chromosome tightly with chromatin), allowing cells to degenerate
- Biological clock:
- 1961: Hayflick limit:
telomere: at the ends of a chromosome. After every reproduction cycle, they get shorter and shorter.
- cancer cells produce an enzyme called telomerase that prevents the telomeres from getting shorter and shorter.
- Population, food, and pollution: :
- if life expectancy can be increased, then will we suffer from overpopulation?
- as people are living longer, they are pursuing careers and delaying childbearing.
- with many more decades to live, people will reset their time frames accordingly, and hence space out or delay their children.
- logic of Malthus:
UK government's chief scientist warned of a perfect storm of exploding population and falling food and energy supplies by 2030. The world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed an extra 2.3B people.
- may underestimate the true scope:
China and India entering the middle class: the world may not be able to handle the strain of providing a middle-class life-style to so many hundreds of millions of people.
- Resurrecting extinct life-forms:
- Richard Dawkins: by 2050, we will be able to construct the entire organism from its genome alone.
- Bring back the Neanderthal?:
- Bring back the mammoth?
- Jurassic Park?
- creating new life-forms:
- master genes that govern the properties of many other genes. By manipulating a handful of these master genes, you can manipulate the properties of dozens of other genes.
- Curing all diseases:
- by 2100, we will not be able to cure all diseases, since diseases mutate faster than we can cure them, and there are too many of them.
- We sometimes forget that we live in an ocean of bacteria and viruses, which existed billions of years before humans, and will exist billions of years after Homo sapiens is gone.
- Many diseases originally came from animals.
- situation for HIV; HIV mutates so rapidly that even if you can develop a vaccine for one variety, the virus will soon mutate.
- Aldous Huxley; "Brave New World"
- H. G. Wells: "Time Machine"; in 802701, human race splits into two district races.
- Germ warfare:
- with genetic engineering, it is possible to create weaponized germs, those that have been deliberately modified to increase their lethality or their ability to spread into the environment.
- Spanish flu virus of 1918: causes the body's immune system to overreact, releasing large amounts of fluid that eventually kills the patient.
- airborne AIDS: Is is also known that viruses and bacteria do exchange genes, so there is also the possibility that AIDS an common cold viruses can exchange genes naturally.
- after 9/11 unknown mail containing anthrax spores.
|遠い未来 (2070 - 2100):
- Pandora's box:
- Out of curiosity, Pandora opened the box, and unleashed all the winds of chaos, misery, and suffering in the world, leaving only hope in the box.
- throughout human history, the mastery of tools has determined our fate.
- bow and arrow; thousands of years ago; fire projectiles much farther than our hands.
- metallurgy; 7000 years ago
- nanotechnology; molecular manufacturing
- 2009 NSF:
- Nanotechnology has the potential to enhance human performance, to bring sustainable development of for materials, water, energy, and foods, to protect against unknown bacteria and viruses ...
- around 2020:
- Moore's law will begin to falter and eventually collapse.
- 2009 NSF:
- 2020: ムーアの法則の限界
- The Quantum World:
- Quantum theory; explains why atoms can bind to form solid matter, rather than disintegrate.
- we cannot have worlds within worlds.
- mind-bending principles of the quantum theory:
- cannot know the exact velocity and location of any particle (law of uncertainty)
- particles can in some sense be in two places at the same time.
- all particles exist as mixtures of different states simultaneously.
- can disappear and reappear somewhere else.
- micro coating:
- spraying thin layers of chemicals only a few molecules thick onto a commercial product, making it more resistant to rust or change its optical properties.
- MEMS (micro-electro-mechanical systems)
- GBM (glioblastoma multiforme)
|Near Term (Present to 2030):
- nanocars in our blood:
- a device that can actually be guided in its travels inside the body; but which has no engine.
- ATP (adenosine triphosphate) as energy source. This energy of ATP is stored within an atomic bond between its atoms; move tens of microns per sec.
- use the tails of living bacgteria
- DNA chips:
- using transistor etching technology, DNA fragments are embedded into the chip.
- 1997: the first commercial DNA chip could rapidly anlyze 50,000 DNA sequence.
- by 2000, 400,000 DN probes were available fro a few thounsand dollars.
- A chip will be able to rappidly analyze hudreds of thoussands of proteins, alerting us to a wide variety of diseases years before they becom serious.
- Carbon nanotubes:
- stronger than steel, can conduct electricity;
- they must be in pure form; the longest pure carbon fibier is only a few cm long.
- stenght of a material depends on imperfections in its molecular structure.
- What will replace silicon? Carbon is one of several candidates that may succeed silicon as the basis of computer technology.
- Post-silicon era:
- when will Moore's law collapse?; 2020 or 2025?
- ability of UV light to etch smaller transistors onto a wafer of silicon; as small as 10 nm.
- it is possible to use etching techniques to carve out components that are only 30 atoms across.
- heat generated will melt chips.
- cubical chip has not enough surface to cool it down.
- etching by X-rays: X-ray wavelength is 100 times smaller than UV light, also increase the energy of the beam by 100 times.
- fundamental problem posed by the quantum theory: by 2020, the layer could be 5 atoms; the electron's position is uncertain.
- parallel processing; the difficulty is that every problem has to be broken into several pieces; the coordination of this breakup can be exceedingly complicated.
- in 2004: carfbon-planar sheet, no more than one atom thick.
- From the point of view of physics, graphene is a goldmine.
- Graphene is the strongest material ever tested in science.
- transistors of graphene are so small; the ultimate limit for molecular transistors.
- any smaller, and the uncertainty principle takes over and electrons leak out of the transistor, destroying its properties.
- real problem: how to wire and assemble them into a commercially viable product. Molecular transistors are notoriiously hard to manipulate; thousands of times thinner than a human hair.
- Quantum computer:
- in the bizarre world of the quantum, an atom is spinning up and down simultaneously; being several places at the same time is commonplace.)
- qubit: 25% spinning up "0", and 75% spinning down "1".
- electromagnetic pulse is sent into the sample, which changes the alignment of the atoms. Some of the atoms flip over, so a 1 becomes a 0.
- decoherence problem:
the tiniest disturbances from the outside world can ruin this delicate balance and make the atoms "decohere," so they no longer vibrate in unison.
- the world's most complex calculation done on a quantum computer is 3 x 5 =15; this calculation was done on individual atoms.
- 2+2 =4: If you repeat the calculation of 2+2 a number of times, the final answer averages out to 4. So even arithmetic becomes fuzzy on a quantum computer.
- Optical computer:
- calculated on light beams rather than electrons.
- can be cubical, without wireless
- in theory, can pack million of lasers onto a chip.
- Quantum dot computer:
- the world's smallest quantum dot was built out of a single electron. These quantum dots have already proven their worth with light-emitting diodes and computer displays.
- DNA computer:
- represented by the letters A, T, C, G instead of 0s and 1s.
- there are so many trillion of DNA molecules acting simultaneously that a DNA computer can solve certain calculations more conveniently.
- 近未来 (現在〜2030):
- UV光によるエッチングは10 nmまで
- グラフェン(炭素原子シート, Graphene):
|Midcentrury (2030 to 2070):
- the technology of today does not allow you to change a solid object at will. but this technology may become common place by midcentury.
- nanotechnology will give us sensors that constantly protect and help us distributed in the environment, beneath the surface of our consciousness.
- smart grains: "catoms" (claytronic atoms)
These allow you to change the static electric charge on the surface, so that these grains can attract and repel each other. With one set of charges, these grains can line up to form a certain array. But you can reprogram these grains; forming a entirely different arrangement.
- cell phone is too big to fit comfortably in my pocket and too small for my fingers.
- programmable matter: "morphing"
we need not throw out many of unwanted things if we can simply reprogram them.
- quantum forces: duplicating these quantum forces with static electrical forces to ensure that these products remain stable.
- It isn't necessary to give detailed instructions to every single catom. Each catom has to know only which neighbors it must attach to. (jigsaw pazzule pieces?)
- 中期未来 (2030 -2070):
- 個々の粒子(catom) に詳細な指示をする必要はない。隣接する粒子を認知できればよい。 (ジグソーパズル的？)
- Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Holy grail: The replicator would be the crowning achievement of engineering and science.
- nanobot; hypothetical molecular robot; if they can reproduce once, then they can create an unlimited number of copies of themselves.
- Eric Drexler: "The Engines of Creation"
- Richard Smalley:: sticky fingers and fat fingers:
- "fingers" would face tiny attractive forces that would make them stick to other molecules, like the van der Waals force.
- the fingers might be too "fat" to manipulate atoms.
- both scientists agreed to disagree:
- naive idea of a nanobot aramed with molecular tweezers cutting and pasting molecules had to be modified. New quantum forces become dominant at the atomic sacle.
- Mother Nature's process is carried out by DNA molecules that guide the actions of ribosomes (which cut and splice the molecules into correct order) using the proteins and amino acids.
- Mother Nature employs a third party, an enzyme in a water solution, to facilitate a chemical reaction.
- one possibility is caled self-asembly, or the botttom-up approach; thengs assemble by themselves.
- Gray goo:
- like a virus, they cannot be recalled once they are let loose intothe environment and estroying the earth.
- once could desgin "killer bots," speciaically desgined to seek out and destryoy nanobots that have run out of control
- Moher Naturee: our body has also creaated nanobots of its own, antibodies and whilte blood cells in our immune system.
- Sociall impact of replicators:
- all philosophies and social systems are ultimately bawed on scarcity and povety: dominant theme running throught society, shaping out culture, phikosophy, and religion.
- Money or invewstment may not exist in the future.
- "to each according to his desire"
- Cf: "from each according to his ability to each according to his need." the mantra for communism.
- > Continued:
- 遠い未来 (2070 -2100):
- ナノボット: 分子ロボット
- Eric Drexler: "The Engines of Creation"
- Richard Smalley:
- Gray goo：ナノボットはウイルスのように無秩序に増殖ていまわないか？
- > つづく:
5. Future of Energy:
- Energy from the stars:
- solar/hydrogen power to replace fossil fuels; harnessing the power of fusion and even solar energy from outer space.
- age of magnetism to overcome the friction
- Energy sources:
- Now, 14TW of power; 33% oil, 25% coal, 20% gas, 15% biomass & hydro, 7% nuclear, 0.5% solar & renewables.
- by 1980, US oil production peaked at 10.2M barrel a day then fell. Oil would become increasingly difficult to extract.
- Saudi Arabia: 267B barrels of oil reserve.
- Canadian tar sands deposits: is not cost-effective to extract and refine it.
- US coal reserves to last 300 years: cost of extracting and gaseous pollutants is onerous.
- modern civilization in 20C has been fueled by two things: cheap oil and M:ore's law.
- food and pollution are not primary problems; they are energy problems.
- rise of a middle class in China and India; which has created enormous pressure on oil and commodity prices.
米国の石油生産ピーク 10.2M bbl
Near Future (Present to 2030):
- Solar/Hydrogen economy:
- Henry Ford and Thomas Edison made a bet as to which form of energy could fuel the future: oil or electricity
- For a while Edison would win the bet: whale oil was extremely hard to get.
- But rapid discovery of cheap oil deposits in ME: gasoline contains roughly 40 times more energy than a battery.
- Now the tide is slowly turning: perhaps Edison will win yet.
- what will replace oil? the most promising successor is solar/hydrogen power. within 10-15 years, cost of solar cells and that of fossils fuels curves will cross.
- Wind power:
- wind power grew from 17B watts in 2000 to 121B watts in 2008; is becoming increasingly prominent.
- wind turbine technology and productivity of wind farms are fastest-growing sectors of the energy market.
- a large wind farm consisting of 100 windmills can produce 500 MW, comparable to 1000 MW of a single coal-burning or nuclear power plant.
- US will produce 28 BW in 2009.
- China will soon surpass US in wind power; generating capacity of 127 BW.
- several problems:
- is generated only intermittently when the wind blows.
- because of losses, wind farms have to be close to cities.
- Here comes the Sun:
- Solar cells coverts sunlight directly into electricity. (this process by Einstein in 1905); but are not efficient, around 15%
- research has gone in two directions:
- to increase the efficiency of solar cells.
- to reduce cost of the solar parks.
- 2009: First Solar, the largest manufacturer of solar cells, will create the largest solar plant just north of the Great Wall of China: 27M thin-film solar panels generating 2 BW.
- China eventually supply 12 BW of power from wind, solar, biomass, and hydroelectric.
- Electric car (EV)
- hybrid car, already on the market
- GM Chevy Volt: 40 miles only by lithium-ion battery and 300 miles using small gasoline engine.
- Telsa Roadster: has no gasoline engine at all.
- Nissan Leaf: is fully electric and has a range of 100 miles, a top speed of 90 miles/h
- 2008 Honda FCX Clarity: commercially available fuel cell car, has a range of 240 miles, a top speed of 100 miles/h using only hydrogen as fuel; it needs no gasoline nor electric charge.
- Against fuel cell cars: hydrogen fuel is volatile and explosive, and hydrogen pumps would have to be built every few blocks.
- the first law of thermodynamics:
- You have to charge the battery in the first place.
- Hydrogen is not a net producer of energy.
- You can't get something for nothing. This means that we need to replace the coal-burning plants with an entirely new form of energy.
- Nuclear fission:
- nuclear power plants has technical and political problems.
- 1979: accident at Three Mile Island
- 1986 accident at Chernobyl:
- enormous quantities of nuclear waste, which is radioactive for thousands to tens of millions of years.
- a typical 1,000 MW reactor produces about 30 tons of high-level nuclear waste after one year.
- with about 100 commercial reactors in US, this amounts to thousands of tons of high-level waste being produced per year.
- Nuclear waste causes problems for two reasons.
- it remains hot even after the reactor has been turned off. If the cooling water is accidentally shut off, then the core starts to melt. If this molten metal comes into contact with water, it can cause a steam explosion.
- The Indian Point reactor, 24 miles north of NY City; an accident could cost hundreds of billion s of dollars in property damage.
- At Chernobyl, outside Kiev, the situation was much worse. When cold water suddenly hit molten metal, it created a steam explosion that blew off the entire top of the reactor, releasing a large fraction of the core into the air. Even today, the core is still unstable and continues to generate heat and radiation.
- the problem of waste disposal:
- 1957: in the Ural Mountains one plutonium waste dump exploded catastrophically, requiring a massive evacuation and causing radiological damage to 1000 sq. km.
- 1970s, US tried to bury high-level waste in Lyons, Kansas in salt mines. But later , it was discovered that the salt mines were unusable, as they already were riddled with numerous holes drilled by oil and gas explorers.. US was forced to close the Lyons site.
- on the next 25 years, US spent $9B building the giant Yucca Mountain waste-disposal center in Nevada; but geologists have testified that this site may be incapable of containing nuclear waste for 10,000 years.
- At present the future of nuclear energy is unclear.
- Re: the above description was written before the disaster on 3.11 in 2011 of he four plants of The Fukushima nuclear plants
- Nuclear proliferation:
- Yet with great power also comes great danger.
- History has shown that when a nation masters commercial technology, if it has the desire and political will, make the transition to nuclear weapons.
- key technology: enrichment of U-235 (0.7% to 90%); first 'gaseous diffusion', then ultracentrifuge
- during WWII, the only way of separating two isotopes was made into gas (UF6, hex)
- gaseous diffusion
- 50 times more efficient than gaseous diffusion.
- 100,000 revolutions/min.
- About 54% of world uranium is purified.
- 1975: A. Q. Khan was an engineer of URENCO; Iran built 8,000 ultracentrifuges by 2010.
- laser enrichment: even cheaper than ultracentrifuges; once the U-235 is ionized, it can be easily separated from U-238 by electric field.
- "Designer bomb":
- 1G warheads of 1950s were huge
- 2G warheads of 1970s were small and compact, and ten of them could fit into the nose cone of a missile.
- 3G bombs are designer bombs, or miniature atomic bomb; specifically tailored to work in various environments, as in forest, desert, or outer space.
- H. Fordのガソリンエンジン
- 2000年の風力発電: 121 BW/2008
- 2009 First Solar社(世界最大のSolar cellメーカ)
- GM Chevy Volt
- Tesla Roadster
- ホンダFCX Clarity
- Indian Point原発は NYCから39km：事故となると数百B$の資産喪失
- その後、超遠心分離 (ガス拡散法の50倍効率)
Midcentury (2030 to 2070):
- Carbon dioxide - Greenhouse gas:
- the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing
- thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by 50% in just the past 50 years; acting ad a canary in a mineshaft.
- The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century.
- the eggs of many harmful insects (mosquitoes) die every winter. But with the shortening of the winter season, it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward.
- sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide, but as sunlight heats up the earth, it creates infrared radiation, which does not pass back through carbon dioxide so easily.
- Visit to Iceland:
- CO2 content of the atmosphere going back more than 600,000 years.
- Scientists found that temperature and CO2 levels have oscillated in parallel, in synchronization over many thousands of years. When one curves rises or falls, so does the other.
- They found a sudden spike happening just within the last century; this is a direct indication of human activity.
- unfortunately, even if we were to suddenly stop producing any CO2, which has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warning for decades to come.
- Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuate, with Wall Street underwater.
- large storms can send surges of water into a city, paralyzing its infrastructure.
- Flooding Bangladesh and Vietnam:
- three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh, Mekong Delta of Vietnam and NIle Delta in Egypt; causing the greatest migrations in human history.
- Technical fixes:
we must be careful about sides effects.
- Launching pollutants (sulfur dioxide) into the atmosphere
- Creating algae blooms
- Carbon sequestration
- Genetic engineering
- A combination of market forces and advances in hydrogen technology should give us a ling-term solution to global warming.
- Fusion power:
- Lawson's criterion: three conditions involving density, temperature, and time are met, we have a fusion reaction whether is is a hydrogen bomb, a star, or a fusion in a reactor.
- 1989: "cold fusion": they have placed palladium metal in water, which then compressed hydrogen atoms until they fused into helium.
- the fact that Pons and Fleischemann were still alive meant the experiment hadn't worked.: in a typical fusion reaction, two hydrogen nuclei are slammed together and fuse, creating energy, a helium nuclei, and also a neutron.
- Hot fusion:
- fusion plants cannot suffer a catastrophic meltdown. if one were to shut down a fusion reactor's magnetic field, the fusion process would stop immediately.
- Uranium fission plants produce volatile amounts of heat even after shutdown; eventually melt the sold steel and enter the groundwater, creating a steam explosion and nightmare of the China Syndrome accident.
- NIF (National Ignition Facility) - Fusion by laser:
- NIF laser fusion machine:
if all goes well, it may be the first machine to create as much energy as it consumes.
- the target is a few milligrams of a mix of deuterium and tritium (DT gas). Pressure: about 1000 g/mL (lead has a density of 11 g/mL)
- s single 500 TW flash of light that reaches the target.
- The devil is in the details. In laser fusion, these 192 laser beams have to hit the surface of a tiny pellet with utmost precision, so that it implodes evenly. The beams must hit this tiny target to within 30 trillionths of a second of one another. If the pellet is irregular by more than 50 nm (about 150 atoms), the pellet will also fail to implode evenly.
- ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) - Fusion in a magnetic field:
- a doughnut-shaped metal chamber: weigh 23,000 tons.
- The problem is that the magnetic field has to be precisely tuned so that the gas is compressed evenly without bulging or becoming irregular.
- Nature effortlessly creates stars in the heavens, so why can't do it on earth? The answer speaks to a simple but profound difference between gravity and electro-magnetism.
- Gravity is strictly attractive.
- Bit electrical charges comes in two types; positive and negative.
- Tabletop fusion:
- One serious possibility for tabletop fusion is called sonoluminescence; sonic fusion or bubble fusion.
- SO2の打ち上げ (火山爆発のまね)
Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Magnetic car and train:
- sometimes in this century, physicists will find room temperature super conductors: the age of magnetism.
- superconductors has been known since 1911; mercury, when cooled 4º Kelvin, lose all electrical resistance.
- we have to cool them to near absolute zero with liquid hydrogen, which is very expensive.
- new ceramic superconductors is 138ºK.
- but they are not enough:
- need to use liquid nitrogen
- physicists are not quire sure how the ceramics work.
- room temperature superconductor could set off another industrial revolution.
- Meissner effect:
- when a magnetic filed is applied to a superconductor, a small electric current forms on the surface and cancels it, so the magnetic filed is expelled for the superconductor.
- Maglev trains and cars:
(=Magnetically Levitated vehicle)
- magnetic levitating trains (maglev) that hover above a set of rails containing magnets.
- maglev speed: 578 km/h; Jet airplanes can fly faster, partly because there is less resistance at high altitudes. it might travel as fast as 6,000 km/h in a vacuum chamber.
- Energy from the sky:
- SSP (Space Solar Power) ; solar power satellite; each generates 5-10 GW of power.
- geostationary satellites 36,000 km above the earth.
- SSP offers a truly sustainable, global-scale and emission-free electricity source.
- the main problem is the cost of booster rockets.
- SSP ( Space Solar Power):
- 5-10 GWを発電
- 静止軌道36K km上に設置
6. Future of Space Travel:
- humanity will be on the brink of a new era of space exploration.
- But the road to building starships will be a rocky one.
Near Future (Present to 2030):
- Extrasolar planets:
- robotic mission will be the search for earthlike planets in space that can harbor life.
- "Follow the water", just like journalists in search of a scandal say, "follow the money"
- 2009: Keler Mission telescope, more sensitive satellite.
- Terrestrial Planet Finder: having a mirror 4 times larger and 100 more sensitive than that of the Hubble Space Telescope.
- an encyclopedia of several thousand planets, very similar to the earth in size and composition.
- sending a probe to these distant planets if these earthlike twins have liquid-water oceans and any radio emissions from intelligent life-forms.
- Europa - outside the goldilocks zone.
- "Goldilocks zone"; the earth is blessed with liquid water because it orbits at the right distance form the sun.
after the Voyager spacecraft sailed past he moons of Jupiter, it became apparent that there was another place for life to flourish; the Europan ocean is estimated to be twice the volume of earth's oceans. Underneath the ice, the surface of Europa is continually hearted by tidal forces. This friction creates heat, which melts the ice and creates a stable ocean of liquid water.
- Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) is scheduled in 2020.
- 1977: the Alvin submarines found evidence of new life-forms in the Galapagos Rift; life-forms using the hear energy from volcano vents to survive. Where there is energy, there might be life; the first DNA was formed in deep undersea near a volcano vent.
- LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) - before the Big Bang: to reveal what happed before the big bang.
- Every time a new form of radiation was harnessed, it changed our worldview:
- when optical telescopes were first used by Galileo to map the planets and stars,
- when radio telescopes were perfected soon after WWII, they revealed a universe of exploding stars and black holes
- gravitational waves may open up an even more breathtaking vista, the world of colliding black holes, high dimensions, and even a multiverse.
- Pre-big bang era coming from string theory:
- Our universe is a huge bubble of some sort that is continually expanding. We live on the skin of this gigantic bubble.
- But our bubble universe coexists in an ocean of other bubble universes, making up the multiverse of universes, like a bubble bath.
- Occasionally, these bubbles might collide or they may fission into small babbles and then expand.
- Each of these pre-big bang theories predicts how the universe should release gravity radiation moments after the initial explosion.
- Manned missions to space:
- robotic missions are cheap and versatile; don't require costly life support; don't have to come back.
- rocket must carry its own fuel, which adds to its weight.
- space travel is very expensive;
- near-earth orbit: it costs $10K/pound
- to reach the moon: $100K/pound
- to reach Mars: $1M/pound
- Canceling the moon program:
- the space shuttle would be retired in 2010, and replaced in 2015 by a new rocket Constellation.
- Landing on an asteroid:
- 2029: close pass of asteroid Apophis (300m across)
- Landing on a moon of Mars:
- visiting Phobos and Deimos: 9600 km from Mars
- caves could be used for a permanent manned base.
- Back to the moon:
- use natural cave as a permanent base on the moon.
- weightlessness; the body undergoes significant changes: degradation of muscles, bones, and cardiovascular system.
- Water on the moon
- 2020: EJSM計画
- 2029: 小惑星Apophis (直径300m)接近
|Midcentury (2030 to 2070):
- Mission to Mars:
- much more difficult: it takes 3 days to reach the moon, but it takes 6 months to the Mars.
- Economic benefit:
- Wild cards: laser propulsion system:
- this fires a high-power laser beam at the bottom of a rocket, causing a mini-explosion whose shock wave pushed the rocket upward. A steady stream of rapid-fire laser blasts vaporizes water, which propels the rocket into space. The laser rocket contains no fuel whatsoever.
- chemical rockets waste much of their energy lifting the weight of their fuel into space.
|Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Space Elevator:
- 1895: Russian physicist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky:
By whipping the ball around, centrifugal force is enough to keep the ball from falling. Likewise, if a cable is sufficiently long, then centrifugal force will prevent if from falling back to earth. The spin of the earth would be sufficient to keep the cable in the sky. Once this cable is stretched into the heavens, any elevator cab that rides along this cable could take a ride into space.
- 1979: Arthur C. Clarke's novel, "The Fountains of Paradise"
- 1982: Robert Heinlein's novel, "Frida"
- nanotechnology might make possible the fables space elevator.
- Carbon nanotubes: are stronger than steel (180 times).
- The problem is crating a pure carbon nanotube cable that is 80K km.
- Moon's orbit: 380K km
- Counterweight: 100K km
- Geostationary satellites: 36K km. Another problem is turbulent weather, such as hurricanes, lightning storms, and high winds.
- Panic button: the elevator cab must be able to glide or parachute back to the earth's surface.
- For a conventional chemical rocket, it would take about 70K years to reach the nearest star.
- Solar sail:
- Although light has no mass, it has momentum, and hence can exert pressure.
- The sail would be several miles across and built in outer space.
- After several years orbiting the sun, the sail would spiral out of the solar system and on to the stars; could send a probe to 0.1% the speed of light and perhaps reach the nearest star in 400 years.
- a huge battery of lasers on the moon; would hit the sail and give it added momentum.
- Nuclear rocket:
- fission reactor
- atomic and hydrogen bombs
- powered by 1000 hydrogen bombs
- Ramjet fusion
- fusion engine: 77% of the speed of light; theoretical could reach the Andromeda galaxy (2M light-years from earth) in just 23 years.
- Several problems:
- since mainly protons exist in interstellar space, the fusion engine must burn pure hydrogen fuel, which does not produce that much energy.
- the scoop would have to be huge; on the order of 160 km.
- Antimatter rockets:
- unlike a hydrogen bomb which is only 1% efficient, an antimatter bomb would be 100% efficient, converting matter into energy (E=mc^2)
- 4 mg of antimatter will take us to Mars; 100 grams will take us to the nearby stars.
- antimatter is so prohibitively expensive because the atom smashers necessary to produce it are notoriously expensive.
- anther possibility is to find an antimatter meteorite in outer space.; using large electromagnetic nets to collect it.
- the essential functions of a starship may be miniaturized by nanotechnology so that perhaps millions of tiny nanoships might be launched to the nearby stars.
- Insect produce large quantities of offspring, only a tiny fraction of which survive.
- swarm as a "superorganism"; having intelligence of its own, independent of the abilities of any single individual. (swarm-bots)
- to spray smart dust to instantly monitor thousands of locations during hurricanes, thunderstorms, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, forest fire, and other natural phenomena.
- to send a probe to another moon or planet, a single probe might have the ability to self-replicate, and thus create an entire factory; then blast off to explore other worlds.
- thousands of cheap, disposable swarm-bots; once promising planets are found, a second generation of swarm-bots might be sent to create factories on these planets that then create more copies of these swarm-bots, which ten fly to the next star. Then the process continues indefinitely.
- Exodus Earth?:
- Will we have space colonies to relieve the world populations by finding a new home in outer space? Will the human race begin to leave the earth by 2100?
- Given the fact the earth will be the home of humanity for centuries to come,; How will civilization itself evolve? Science is the engine of prosperity, so how will it reshape civilization and wealth in the future?
- 1895: K. ツォルコフスキーによる構想
- 1979: A. クラークのSF
- 1982: R. ハインラインのSF
- 100K kmの長さ。途中、静止軌道36K km
- ナノロボット (群ロボット)
7. Future of Wealth:
- 1500: an alien visiting earth and viewed all the great civilization;
- China invented paper, printing press, gunpowder, compass, etc.
- Ottoman Empire; invented algebra, produced advances in optics and physics, and named the stars.
- Mastery of the four forces:
- the first force is gravity; in 1687 Isaac Newton published "Principia", the most important book of science ever written. Newton introduced a new way of thinking, a mechanics by which one could compute the motion of moving bodies via forces, No longer were we subject to the whims of spirits, demons, and ghosts; Newton's description of gravity helped to pave the way for the Industrial Revolution in Europe.
- then in 18000s, Michael Faraday, James Clerk Maxwell, etc. harness the second great force, electromagnetism. Gazing at the earth from space, any alien would immediately realize that earthlings had mastered electromagnetism.
- last, the nuclear forces are changing everything around us. Using this knowledge fore medicine through MRI, CAT, and PET scans, radiation therapy, and nuclear medicine. The nuclear forces can ultimately determine the fate of humanity.
- 1687: 重力：Isaac Newton
- 1800: 電磁気力：Michael Faraday、James. C. Maxwell
- 核力：MRI, CAT, PETなど医療に応用
|Near Future (Present to 2030):
- Four stages of technology:
in the case of paper:
- Stage-I: products of technology are so precious that they are closely guarded. papyrus, chinese paper
- Stage-II: 1450, Gutenberg invented printing from movable type. Before Gutenberg, there were only 30K books in all Europe. By 1500, there were 9M books.
- Stage-III; around 1930, the cost fell to a penny a sheet. one person could possess hundreds of books.
- Stage-IV. the largest source of urban waste is paper.
- State-I: Thomas Edison: a factory shared a single lightbulb and electric motor
- Stage-II; after WWI, we could possess personal lightbulb and personal motor
- Today, electricity has disappeared; its is everywhere and nowhere.
- Why bubbles and crashes?
- There is irony here: the heyday of the railroad would be 1880s and 1890s. So the Crash of 1850 was due to speculative fever and the wealth created by science, but the real job of railing the world would take many more decades to mature.
- From 1900 to 1925, the number of automobile start-up companies hit 3,000, which the market simply could not support. Once again , this bubble was unsustainable. The bubble popped in 1929, creating the Great Depression.
- More recently, we had the third great wave of science, the coming of high tech. In this case, it went into real estate, creating a huge bubble. Once again, people ignored the lesson of the crashes of 1850 and 1929, which happened 160 and 80 years in the past, We had the crash of 2008 and the great recession.
- What is the forth wave? It might be a combination of AI, nanotechnology, telecommunications, and biotechnology. Around the year 2090, hopefully people will not ignore the lesson of the previous 80 years.
|Midcentury (2030 to 2070):
- Winners and losers: jobs
- What jobs will flourish by midcentury? Or, what are the limitations of robots? There are al least two basic stumbling blocks to AI; pattern recognition and common sense.
- the losers will be workers who perform purely repetitive task.
- surprisingly, there is a large class of blue-collar work that will survive; garbage collectors, police officers, construction workers, gardener, and plumbers, etc.
- among white-collar workers, the losers will be; taking inventory, brokers, tellers, accountants, etc; care called "the friction of capitalism"
- how will middlemen survive in the future? They will have to add value to their work and provide the one commodity that robots cannot deliver: common sense.
- People in the arts will have jobs. Art that inspires, intrigues, evokes emotions, and thrills us is beyond the capability of a computer. Novelists, scriptwriters, and playwright will have jobs. Computers are not good at determining what makes us cry or laugh, since they cannot understand what is funny or sad.]
- Leadership will also be a prized commodity in the future. Larders deal with inspiring and providing guidance to human workers, who have their own personal strengths and weaknesses.
- Future of entertainment
- entire industries, such as entertainment, are undergoing a profound upheaval.
- the top musicians will be chosen more democratically, via a free-for-all involving market forces and technology, rather than by music business executives.
- Newspapers are shrinking in size and circulation; The revenue stream came not so much from the purchase of the paper itself, but from the ad revenue those pages generate.
- The matrix:
- Will actors and actresses become obsolete anytime soon? Humans evolved an uncanny ability to differentiate one another's faces, since our survival depended on it. Within seconds, we had to rapidly determine a person's age, sex, strength, and emotion.
- Hence, the human brain devotes a considerable amount of its processing power to reading people's faces; a large part of our brain power was devoted to looking a subtle facial cues.
- the movie Avatar:
- With enough computer time, he could create an entire fantasy city. But modeling a realistic human face was beyond his ability. This is because when a light beam hits the human face, it scatters in all directions, depending on its texture.
- We can recognize the human face is similar to the way physicists analyze subatomic particles!
|Far Future (2070 to 2100):
- Impact on capitalism
- Perfect capitalism: is when the producer and the consumer have infinite knowledge of the market, so that prices are perfectly determined.
- Mass production to mass customization:
when everyone is hooked to the Internet, custom-made objects can be manufactured a the same price as mass-produced items.
- Mass technology as a utility:
in the future, we could gradually phase out the computer altogether and access all our information directly on the Internet, which then charges us for the time spent. Ironically the computer revolution will eventually make the computer disappear into the clouds.
- Targeting you customer:
in the future, companies will know almost immediately how many people have downloaded or viewed their products.
- Today, Big Brother of George Orwell's novel 1948, is not possible. The real problem is "little brother," that is, nosy busybodies, pretty criminals, tabloid newspapers, and even corporations that use data mining.
- From commodity capitalism to intellectual capitalism
- human brain cannot be mass-produced; to create intellectual capital you have to nurture, cultivate, and educate a human being, which takes decades of individual effort.
- Lester Thurow: "With everything else dropping out of the competitive equation, knowledge has become the only source of long-run sustainable competitive advantage."
- in 1991, UK became the first country to earn more from invisible exports (services) than from visible ones.
- Digital divide?
- digital-rich vs. digital poor
- The problem is not access. The real problem is jobs.
- China are using the profits to create a service sector built on intellectual capitalism.
- In US, of foreign-born Ph.D. students, most are from China and India.
- Entry-level jobs
- In US and Europe, the heyday of industrialization has passed, forever.
- efforts have to be made to reorient and reinvest in those sectors that maximize intellectual capitalism.
- Intellectual capitalism does not mean jobs only for software programmers and scientists but in a broad spectrum of activities that involve creativity, artistic ability, innovation, leadership, and analysis - ie, common sense.
- Winners and losers: nations
- Old motors of growth - land, natural resources, capital - no longer matter.
- Aid to developing nations; "Give me a fish, and I will eat for a day. Teach me how to fish, and I will eat forever."
- Taking advantage of science
- Developing nations may be able to take advantage of the information revolution:
- The Internet is anther way for developing nations to take a short-cut to the future, bypassing all the mistakes made in the West, especially in the sciences.
- The future is up for grabs
- the future is wide open.
- Brain drain: US has secret weapon, the H1B visa, so-called genius visa. H1B immigrants do not take always jobs, they create entire new industries.
- Lesson of Singapore:
- In the West, "The squeaky wheel gets the grease."
- but in the East, "The nail that sticks out gets hammered down." These two expressions are diametrically opposed to each other. but they capture some of the essential features of Western and Eastern thought.
- to reach the higher levels of science and technology, you need creativity, imagination, and innovation.
- Lee Kuan Yew, prime minister of Singapore (1959-1990) His party began a systematic process of revolutionizing the entire nation, stressing science and education and concentrating on the high-tech industries.
- creative students would be singles out and allowed to pursue their dreams at their own pace.
- Challenge for the future:
- Freeman Dyson; found that the brightest minds of England were turning their backs on the hard sciences, in favor of lucrative careers in finance and banking. He lamented that it was a sign of the decline of the British Empire.
- 西洋: キーキーいう車には油を
- 東洋: 出る杭は打たれる
- Lee Kuan Yew
8. Future of Humanity:
- All the technological revolutions described here are leading to a single point; the creation of a planetary civilization.
- Perhaps 5,000 generations of humans have walked the surface of the earth since we first emerged in Africa about 100,000 years ago, and of them, the one living in this century will ultimately determine our fate.
- Ranking civilizations:
- for countless millennia, our energy was limited to 1/5 horsepower.
- Life was short and brutish; average life expectancy of 18-20 years.
- After you died, you left no trace that you had ever lived at all.
- 10,000 years ago; a marvelous event happed: the Ice Age ended; this paved the way for the rise of agriculture. Horses and oxen were soon domesticated: our energy to 1 horsepower.
- Mathematics and writing were created to count this wealth.
- 300 years ago; coming of the Industrial Revolution; the wealth accumulated by the product of machines.
- The third wave: wealth is generated from information. Science, commerce, and entertainment travel at the speed of light, giving us limitless information anytime, anywhere.
|Type-I, II, and II civilizations:
- 1964: Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev:
- Type-I civilization: 10^17 watts
Sliver of sunlight that falls on their planet,
- Type-II civilization: 10^27 watts
stellar, consuming all the energy that their sun emits
- Type-III civilization: 10^37 watts.
consumes 10 billion times more energy than Type-II civilization. (because 10B more stars in a galaxy)
- Type-IV civilization:
derives its energy from extragalctic sources.; dark energy (73% of the matter and energy of the known universe.
Type -I, -II, -III文明発展の段階
- Type-II文明: 10^27ワット、太陽エネルギー全利用
- Type-III文明: 10^37ワット、銀河エネルギー前利用
From Type-0 to Type-I:
- Carl Sagan: calculated that we are actually Type 0.7 civilization.
- The Internet is the beginning of a Type-I planetary telephone system.
- WWW: lingua franca
by English (29%), followed by Chinese (22%), and by Spanish (8%), Japanese (6%), and French (5%) are rapidly emerging as the future Type-I language.
- EU and NAFTA: In the future, more economic blocs forming, as nations realize that they cannot remain competitive unless they join lucrative trading blocs.
- it is clear that a superpower can maintain its status only through economic might, and that in turn stems from science and technology.
- Terrorism and dictatorships:
- Historically, the greatness and scientific and technological prowess of the Islamic civilization were matched only by its tolerance of new ides.
- Islamic terrorists do not understand the true source of the greatness of the Islamic past.
- The pen is mightier that the sword. In the future, it will be the chip that is mightier than the sword.
- インターネットはType-I 文明の電話
- Since it will have long mastered the weather, ices ages, meteors and comets. even if their sun goes supernova, the people will be able to flee to another star system.
- it will have explored most of the galaxy.
- SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence)
- all might suddenly change if we find evidence of intelligent life in outer space.
- New classifications:
- with the spectacular rise of computer power, attention turned to the information revolution.
- Carl Sagan introduced another scale, based on information processing; from A to Z.
- Type-A civilization: processes only a million pieces of information, which corresponds to a civilization that has only a spoken language but not a written one.
- Type-C civilization: copied all the information from ancient Greece; about a billion bits of information.
Type-H civilization; the amount of information that our civilization processes.; therefore, the energy and information processing of our civilization yields a Type 0.7 H civilization.
- Freeman Dyson:Type-II civilizations in outer space emit primarily infrared radiation, rather than X-0rays or visible light.; they would inevitably produce enough waste heat so that it would glow with infrared radiation.
- we need a new scale, one that takes efficiency, waste heat, and pollution into account.
- Carl SaganはA〜Zの文明に分類
- Freeman DysonはType-II文明は、廃棄物処理の赤外線を放射しているはず
- Ranking civilizations by entropy:
- 2nd law of thermo-dynamics says that the total amount of entropy (disorder or chaos) always increases; this means that all things must pass; objects must rot decay, rust, age, or fall apart.
- If civilizations of the future blindly produce energy as they rise to Type-II or III, they will create so much waste heat; their home planet will become uninhabitable.
- Entropy conserving civilization; one that use every means at its disposal to control excess waste and heat
- Entropy wasteful civilization; the civilization might try to flee its excesses by expanding to other planets.
- From masters of nature to conservators of nature:
- if we become masters of nature, we will also have to become conservators of nature. If we let entropy increase without limit, we will inevitably perish by the laws of thermodynamics.
- Nanotechnology gives us the opportunity to reduce waste heat even further as machines are miniaturized to the atomic scale.
- Most dangerous transition:
- Human nature has not changed much in the past 100K years, except now we have nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons to settle old scores.
- The search for wisdom:
- Science by itself is morally neutral. Science is like a double-edged sword. One side of the sword can cut against poverty disease, and ignorance. But the other side can cut against people. How this mighty sword i wielded depends on the wisdom of its handlers.
- A. Einstein, "Science can only determine what is, but not what shall be; and beyond its realm, value judgments remain indispensable."
- Key to the future: wisdom
- Immanuel Kant, "Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life":
- Wisdom is the ability to identify the crucial issues of our time, analyze them from many different points of view and perspectives, and then choose the one that carries out some nobel goal and principle.
- Isaac Asimov, "The saddest aspect of society right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom."
- Where does wisdom come from? In part, wisdom comes from reasoned and informed democratic debate from opposing sides.
- Today, the Internet, with all its faults and excesses, is emerging as a guardian of democratic freedoms. Issues that were once debated behind closed doors are now being dissected and analyzed on a thousand Web sites.
- Future as a freight train:
- In summary the future is ours to create. Nothing is written in stone.
- the future is lie a huge freight train barreling down the tracks, headed our way. you can hear the whistle of the train. It says: biotechnology, AI, nanotechnology, and telecommunications.
- However, the reaction of some is to say, "I am too old. I can't learn this stuff. I will just lie down and get run over by the rain."
- However, the reaction of the young; "Get me on that train!
- This train represents my future, It is my destiny. Get me in the drivers's seat."
9. A Day in the Life in 2100:
- Jan. 1, 2100, 6:15 am: : Key words of the future:
- terraforming Mars.
- starships; Millions of nanobots
- a rare saber-toothed tiger, brought back via DNA
- The space elvator
- fusion plants
- magnetic car
- 3D images of the participants; they are here holographically.
- quantum computer, even approaching human intelligence.
- Robot doctor
- Robot dog
- Robot clerk.
- genetically reprogrammed to live longer
- virtual rality parlor
- creating a child to order
- planetary civilization
- 2100年1月1日 6:15 am