A Cold-War Analysis of Emerging Power Containment	Cat: ECO Pub: 2011 #: 1103b
	Mitsuhiro Maeda (前田充浩)	11709u/18211r

Title	A Cold-War analysis of emerging power containment; a superimposed model between Prestige Games and Knowledge Games.	智のゲームとしての冷戦史観 国民国家と情報智業の重畳モデルの試み
Index	Preface: Superimposed two models: Cold War model: East-West Cold War: US- Japan Cold War: Struggle for ASEAN: Struggle for Central Asia: Struggle for Africa: Consequence of US-Japan Cold War: US-China Cold War:	序: 重層モデル: 冷戦モデル: 東西冷戦: 日米冷戦: ASEAN争奪銭: 中央アジア争奪銭: アフリカ争奪銭: 日米冷戦の帰結: 中米冷戦:
Tag	; Aid fatigue; ASEAN; Hierarchical targets; Kumon sigmoid; Knowledge game; Neoliberalism; NIS; Prestige game; Strong developmentalism; Washington Consensus; Weak developmentalism; White/black ideology; ;
Why?	The author published this report at the symposium of Soicioinfornomics Society on June 18, 2011, who has the carrier background at METI and is an expert of this theme. He describes clear explanation of the present economic situation surrounding Japan with the analogy of the Cold War analysis between US-Japan, and US-China as Knowledge games.	著者は本レポートを2011/6/18の情報社会学会で発表した。著者はMETI官僚の経験を踏まえてた本テーマでのエキスパートである。 日本を取り巻く現在の経済状況を日米、米中間の冷戦になぞらえて、智のゲームとして明確に説明している。

Key phrase and tag	注・コメント
>Top 0. 序: Kumon Sigmoid: Superimposed three sigmoid games in modernization process. Militalization: Prestige game by nation states Industrialization: Wealth game in the global market by national industries Informatization: Knowledge game by global netizens Neet (Not formally but socially employed, educated and trained. Simple, Social, Share	0. Preface: 公文俊平：近代化におけるS字カーブ重畳モデル 軍事化 (政治化): 国民国家による威のゲーム 産業化 (経済化): 産業企業による世界市場での富のゲーム 情報化 (ソーシャル化): 情報智業による地球智場における智のゲーム 共働/通識/共貨
>Top 1. Superimposed two models: Rule and practice of the international community Advanced countries: make the rule and practice confine the emerging countries by the rule. Emerging countries: requires to change the rule and practice dissent the regime >Top Prestige game: expansion by military and diplomatic powers Knowledge game: expansion by persuasive power	1. 重畳モデル: 国際社会のルールと慣行: 先発国 ルールと慣行を作る ルールによって新興国を封じ込める 新興国 そのルールに抵抗 威のゲーム: 軍事力・外交力による拡大 智のゲーム: 説得力による拡大
>Top 2. Cold-War model: "White" ideology: The ideology of advance countries which try to confine emerging countries by the established rule and practice. "Black" ideology: The ideology of emerging countries which try to change the rule and practice established by the advance countries. >Top Hierarchical targets: Target level-1: domestic people of the subject country enable to increase the number of sympathizers Target level-2: people of advanced countries (more than $10,000 GDP per capita) Target level-3: people of developing countries. Competitive phase and oppositional phase Competitive phase to the target level-1: Persuade domestic people to believe superiority of white ideology. Competitive phase to the target level-2: Persuade people of advanced countries to believe superiority of white ideology. Competitive phase to the target level-3: Persuade people of developing countries to believe superiority of white ideology. Oppositional phase to the target level-1: Persuade people of the rival country to reclaim from black (or white) ideology. Oppositional phase to the target level-2: Persuade people of advanced country to reclaim from black (or white) ideology. Oppositional phase to the target level-3: Persuade people of developing country to reclaim from black (or white) ideology. Competitive strategy: First to persuade people of developing countries, then people of advanced countries, finally people of the rival country.	2. 冷戦モデル: 白思想: 新興国を封じ込めようとする先発国の思想 黒思想: 台頭して国際社会のルールを変更しようとする新興国の思想 白思想と黒思想は、智のゲームでも争っている。 説得対象の階層化: 第１階層: 冷戦主体国の内部の人々 第２階層: 先進国の人々 第３階層: 途上国の人々 競合側面と対抗側面 競争側面の第１階層 競争側面の第２階層 競争側面の第３階層 対抗側面の第１階層 対抗側面の第２階層 対抗側面の第３階層 競争戦略: まずは途上国の国民、次に先進国の国民、最後に対抗国の国民の順で説得する。
>Top 3. East-West Cold War : Scramble in developing countries: East 's ideology looked easy to understand. One-party domination looked attractive to most of governing leaders in developing countries. White ideology: Economic growth theory Development aid through ODA Neo classical economics Walt Whiteman Rostow: "The Stages of Economic Growth; A non-communist manifesto" (1960), Take off theory 1960: DAG (Development Assistance Group), then DAC (Development Assistance Conference) 1961: OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) 1964: UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development) Black ideology: Deficit of market mechanism Monopoly Expansion of disparity in wealth (Unemployment) Business fluctuation (depression, or crash) End of the cold war: as a result of the Knowledge game. shock therapy	3. 東西冷戦: 途上国における争奪戦 白思想: 経済成長 ODAを通じた開発援助 新古典派経済学 W.W. Rostow 経済成長理論, Take off theory 黒思想: 市場メカニズムの欠点を指摘 独占 格差拡大 景気変動 冷戦終結 ソ連東欧におけるショック療法
>Top 4. US-Japan Cold War Washington Consensus: White ideology: 1980-2008 coined in 1989 by John Williamson; standard reform package based on IMF, World Bank, and US Treasury Dept. neoliberal policies: emphasize market mechanism, reduce government deficits, various deregulation, export-lead growth >Top Japan: Black ideology as emerging country this policy has been overlooked by US due to the Cold War. development-focused policy Strong NIS: 'National Innovation System": comprehensive national development plan, such as x-Year Plan. Weak NIS: even US promoted NIS named "Innovate America" Priority industry Promotion of technical advancement ward off excessive competition protectionism What is "strong NIS policy? "Law of decreasing relative cost	4. 日米冷戦: ワシントン・コンセンサス 米国：白思想 1989 John Williamsonが提唱 新自由主義政策：市場メカニズム、公的債務削減、規制緩和、輸出指向成長 日本：黒思想 冷戦時代は米国から大目に見られてきた。 開発主義政策 NIS: 日："e-Japan"構想など 米："Innovate America" NIS政策とは 費用逓減の法則
>Top 5. Struggle for ASEAN: 1990s struggle for ASEAN between US and Japan: 1981: "Look East policy" by Mahathir of Malaysia 1990: EAEC (East Asia Economic Caucus); regional free trade zone proposed by Mahathir. 1994: Expansion of ASEAN 1995: Vietnam 1997: Myanmar and Laos 1999: Cambodia Japanese develomentalism: 1987 New AID Plan by MITI AEM (ASEAN Economic Ministers)＋MITI International Division of Labor 1995: ASEAN+3 (=APT) 1997 Asian Currency Crisis: Crony capitalism Knowledge game of anti-black ideology functionable market mechanism 2001/4-06/9: Koizumi cabinet Derelict of strong developmentalism >Top Neoliberalism (emphasis of market mechanism)	5. ASEAN争奪戦: 1990年代の日米間ASEAN争奪戦 1981: Mahathir 1984: ASEAN拡大 195-99: VMLC 日本の開発主義 国際分業体制 1995: ASEAN+3 1997: アジア通貨危機 クローニー資本主義 機能する市場メカニズム 2001-06: 小泉内閣 強い開発主義の放棄 新自由主義
>Top 6. Struggle for Central Asia: Yen credit Conditionality attached with yen credit 1993: Kyrgyzstan 1994: Kazakhstan 1995: Uzbekistan 1997: Turkmenistan Administrative guidance as informal measures difficult to be applied	6. 中央アジア争奪戦: 円借款 円借款に伴う融資条件 1993: キルギス 1994: カザフスタン 1995: ウズベキスタン 1997: トルクメニスタン インフォーマルな行政指導 適用困難
>Top 7. Struggle for Africa: 1990s: Aid fatigue 1993: TICAD (Tokyo International Conference on African Development) 1998: TICAD-II Whereas, 2000: Millennium Challenge Account of US 1997: Peak of Japanese ODA amount; gradual diminution of ODA; decline of strong developmentalism 2003: TICAD-III 2004: One village, one product movement 2008: TICAD-IV	7. アフリカ争奪銭: 1990年代：援助疲れ 1993: アフリカ開発会議 1998: アフリカ開発会議(第2回) 1997: 日本のODAピーク、 以後漸減 強い開発主義の放棄？ 2003: アフリカ開発会議(第3回) 2004: 一村一品運動 2008: アフリカ開発会議(第4回)
>Top 8. Consequence of US-Japan Cold War: Japan maintains "Weak Developmentalism" Last half of 1990s: Decline of Strong Developmentalism of Japan Long-term demand estimate Adjustment of investment plan Support policies; finance, technical development, deregulation	8. 日米冷戦の帰結: 日本は弱い開発主義を維持 2005: 新産業創造戦略 2010: 新成長戦略 1990年代後半: 日本：強い開発主義の放棄 主要産業における5/10/20年後の需要予測 国内生産計画拡大；設備投資の調整 支援政策：金融、技術開発、規制緩和
>Top 9. China-US Cold War: Beijing Consensus: a new black ideology Large scale development aid without enforcing pro-human rights and democracy. Sustainability of debt by IMF: Green signal country: Repayment capable with stress test Yellow signal country: Repayment capable without stress test Red signal country: Repayment doubtful without stress test IMF recommends that new loan should be only green signal counties. But China loans even yellow and red signal countries. Tied condition OECD bans tied loan to economic sector with commercial viability. due to 'Trade Distortion' and 'Level Playing Field' But China, OECD nonmember, promotes actively this tied conditioned loans to African and SE Asian countries. due to China itself is a developing country which needs not consider other developed countries' situation. Claims outstanding and new loan: Further new loan may cause default, or Further new loan may be necessary to increase repayment capacity	9. 中米冷戦: 北京コンセンサス: 新たな黒思想 人権、民主主義を強要しない大規模開発援助 債務持続性 (IMF): 緑色シグナル国: ストレステスト付きで返済可能 黄色シグナル国: ストレステストなしで返済可能 赤色シグナル国: ストレステストなしでも返済疑問 IMFは、新規融資は緑色シグナル国のみ 中国は、黄色、赤色シグナル国にも融資実施 タイド条件: OECD加盟国は、政財セクターに対するタイド条件の融資を禁止 '貿易歪曲性'、'公正な競争機会'の理由による OECD非加盟国の中国は、アフリカ、東南アジア諸国にタイド条件での融資を積極的に実施 中国自身が発展途上国であり、他の先進国の事情を考慮する必要性なし 債務残高と新規融資: 新規融資は債務不履行の可能性あり、または 返済能力増加のためには、追加の新規融資が必要

Comment

People mostly believes the Cold War was finished, but actually it continues in a different filed, ie, as a Knowledge Game. But, why Japanese government appeals to its own national that Japan is now battling the Cold War for its survival? Otherwise, is the government not confident to get majority support from its nations? Is it the policy that people should be only followers without understanding it.

多くの人々は冷戦は終了したと思っている。だがそれは別のフィールドで、智のゲームとして継続している。 しかし、なぜ日本政府は、現在日本が生存のための冷戦を闘っていることを自国民にアピールしないのか？ あるいは、政府は日本の多数の支持を得る自信がないのか？　民は之を由らしむべし、之を知らしむべからずの政策か？