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IT Investment and Productivity

・Cat: ICT
・Pub: 2007
・#: 0724a

- Macro, Micro, & Cross-country comparison -

Akihiko Shinozaki (篠崎彰彦)

07z25u/18115r
Title

IT Investment and Productivity

IT投資と生産性

Subtitle
Macro, Micro, & Cross-country comparison マクロ・ミクロ・国際比較
Index
Why?
  • This a summary of lecture held at "Study for future ICT" at Glocom, Int'l Univ. of Japan on Dec.20, 2007 by Prof. Akihiko Shinozaki, Kyushu University.
  • He comments himself a so-called data mania.
  • 2007年12月20日に国際大学/Glocomでの情報通信の未来研究会での篠崎彰彦九州大学大学教授顧客経済学)による講演メモ
  • 自身はデータマニアとのこと
Tag
; Capital deepening ratio; IS/LM model; Solow's paradox; Working age population;
Presentation
Message

>Top 0. Introduction:

  • There are several points of controversy related to the famous debate of "Has IT raised productivity?" :
    • Impact of price down of IT related goods
    • Impact of software
    • Importance of intellectual labor
    • Network externality
    • Lead time until increase of productivity

0. 序:

  • 「ITが生産性をあげたか」という生産性論争に関連する論点には以下がある。
    • IT財の価格低下のインパクト
    • ソフトウェアのインパクト
    • 知的労働の重要性
    • ネットワークの外部性
    • 生産性向上までのリードタイム

>Top 1. A way to Information Economy:

  • One viewpoint from microeconomics: >Fig.
    • Market equilibrium:
    • -> Infoeconomics -> Industrial organization -> Productivity by IT utilization
  • >Top Another viewpoint from macroeconomics:
    • National accounts:
    • -> Investment/Saving equilibrium, & Liquidity preference/Money supply equilibrium (IS/LM model) -> Growth theory -> Industry structure theory
      -> Informatization of industry or industrialization of information
    • Productivity = IT + Organization (review of workflow)
  • Integrating the above, growth accounting analysis and production function analysis -> Information Economy (new)
    • Information Economy unit in OECD

1.情報経済学への道のり:

  • 1つの流れ:
    ミクロ経済学の市場均衡論
    • →情報経済学
    • →さらに産業組織論で、IT導入による生産性
  • もう一つの流れ:
    マクロ経済学のIS-LM分析
    • →成長論
    • →産業組織論
      産業の情報化、情報の産業化
  • これらが統合:
    成長会計分析や生産関する分析や新たな情報経済学へ
  • Macroexonomics & Microeconomics: (Fig.)
info_ecoomy

>Top 2. Solow's Productivity Paradox:

  • "We cans see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." - Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate economist - NY Times, July 12, 1987
    • "You can now see computers in the productivity statistics" R. Solow - NY Times, Mar 12, 2000
    • "Productivity isn't everything, but in the long run it is almost everything." - Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations -1990
  • ICT in the productivity statistics: >Fig.
    • Period of Solow's paradox:
      from: 1959-1973
      to: 1973-1995
    • Period of New economy:
      from: 1973-1995
      to: 1995-2003
  • >Top TFP (Total Factors Productivity):
  • Labor Productivity (output per hour):
    Output / labor Inputs
  • Capital deepening ratio: (also called Capital equipment ratio)
    capital per worker is increasing; measured by capital stock per labor hour.
  • Multifactor productivity (MFP):
    changes in output per unit of combined inputs.

2. ソローのパラドックス:

  • ITによる生産性の向上は統計には現れていない。(NY Times, 1987)
  • ようやく統計上に現れた(NY Times, 2000)
    -----
  • 労働生産性
  • IT資本の深化=資本投入率/労働時間
    • 資本深化率は資本装備率ともいう
  • 全要素生産性=
    資本生産性+労働生産性など
  • IT Productivity Statistics: (Fig.)
itproductivity

>Top 3. Economic growth in less population:

  • Working Age Population:
    Population of working people in Japan (15-64): jp_laborpower
  • GDP = Productivity x Population
  • Differentiation of logarithm of both sides:
    q = P + n
    • where, q= economic growth, p= productivity growth, n= population growth
    • Productivity growth = Multifactor growth + Capital deepening
  • Growth rate = Demographic factor+ Productivity factor
    = Labor input + Total factor productivity + Capital goods deepening + IT capital deepening + Economic cycle

3. 人口減少下の経済成長:

  • 生産年齢人口 (15-64)の推移: Fig.
  • 経済成長率=生産性上昇率+人口増加率
  • 生産性上昇率=全要素生産性変化率+資本深化変化率
    ------------
  • 成長率=
    人口動態要因 (労働投入) +
    生産性要因 (全要素生産性+一般資本深化+情報資本深化+景気循環)

>Top 4. Factors of economic growth:

  • Production function is:
  • (1) Q = M・ Ko^α・Ki^β・(hrL)^γ
    • where, Q = added value (=Output) , M = multifactor productivity, Ko = non-IT assets, Ki = IT assets, hr = working hours per employee, L = number of employees
    • α, β, and γ represent income shares; α+β+γ=1
  • Logarithmic deferentiation of the above (1) equation will be:
  • (2) dQ - hdrL = dM + α(dKo - hdrL ) +β(dKi - hdrL)
    • dQ - hdrL means rate of change (RC) of labor productivity
    • dM means RC of multifactor growth
    • α(dKo - hdrL) means RC of general capital deepening
    • β(dKi - hdrL) means RC of information capital deepening
  • As economic cycle, capacity utilization ratio is considered:
  • (3) Q = M・ (pKo)^α・(pKi)β・(hrL)^γ
    • where, p = capacity utilization ration (= utilization rate of assets
  • Similarly from the (1) and (2):
  • (4) dQ - hdrL = dM + α(dKo - hdrL ) +β(dKi - hdrL) + (α+β)dp
    • (α+β)dp means economic cycle (=RC of capacity utilization ratio)

4. 経済成長の要因:

  • 付加価値の変化(dQ) :対数微分をとる。
  • (4)式は
    労働生産性の変化率
    =全要素生産性の変化率要因
    +一般資本整備率の変化率要因
    +情報資本装備率の変化要因
    +稼働率変化要因
    の4要因に分解できる。

>Top 5. Japanese basic powers: (日本の基礎力)

jp_basicpower

  • late 70s: 1976-80
  • early 80s: 1981-85
  • late 80s: 1986-90
  • early 90s: 1991-95
  • late 90s: 1996-2000
  • early 00s: 2001-05
  • Economic growth rate
    =Labor input
    +Economic cycle
    +IT capital deepening
    +Non IT capital deepening
    +Total factor productivity
  • 経済成長率
    =労働投入
    +景気要因
    +一般資本深化
    +情報資本深化
    +TFP要因

>Top 6. Three factors for productivity (Distribution in corpoate size):

  • 企業規模分布 (小企業|中小企業|中堅企業|大企業|巨大企業)
    • Chart is rewritten:
    • □IT /Organization / Human resource intensively invested
    • ■IT /Organization / Human resource not intensively invested
    • ■■■means Low-Low-Low invested, while □□□means High-High-High.

ITORHRdist6

6. Three factors for productivity (score):

  • 生産性のための三元配置

ITORHRscore

  • Only IT investment is not effective for enhancement of productivity.
  • Combined investment for IT, Organization, & Human resources are mostly effective for productivity.

>Top 7. GDP history in 20C:

  • Small difference of growth rate causes big difference in a century: Unit: USD 1990, %
 
GDP per capita
Growth per annum
 
1913
1998
GDP
growth
Productivity growth
Japan
1,387
20,410
4.3
3.2
US
5,301
27,331
3.2
1.9
W- Europe
3,473
17,921
2.4
1.9
Argentine
3,797
9.219
2.9
1.0
S- Africa
1,602
3,858
3.4
1.0
World
1,510
5,709
3.0
1.6
  • Source: Maddison, 2001, & Shinozaki, 2005b
  • Japan, as only non-Western country, could be modernized in 1868.
  • Argentine and South Africa was richer than Japan in 1913; caused by mostly the difference of productivity.

 

7. 20世紀の世界史が示唆するもの:

  • 成長率のわずかな差が1世紀の間に大きな差となる。

>Top 8. Gap between transitional period: gapintransition

  • Gap problem in transitonal period:
  • Cases of East - West Germany
  • and North - South Korea:
  • Gap (a) is small gap within the same trend of wave, but gap (b) will be bigger when missing to catch the next trande of wave.

8. 転換期の格差:

  • 東西ドイツや南北朝鮮の格差のケース
  • Gap (a) は同じトレンドの波の中の格差であるのに対し、Gap (b)は次のトレンドの波に乗り遅れた場合の格差でさらに大きくなる。
Comment
  • Statistical data really carries conviction.
  • 統計データは実に説得力がある。

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