Presentation
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Message
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>Top 0. Introduction:
- There are several points of controversy related to the famous debate of "Has IT raised productivity?" :
- Impact of price down of IT related goods
- Impact of software
- Importance of intellectual labor
- Network externality
- Lead time until increase of productivity
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0.
序:
- 「ITが生産性をあげたか」という生産性論争に関連する論点には以下がある。
- IT財の価格低下のインパクト
- ソフトウェアのインパクト
- 知的労働の重要性
- ネットワークの外部性
- 生産性向上までのリードタイム
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>Top 1. A way to Information Economy:
- One viewpoint from microeconomics: >Fig.
- Market equilibrium:
- -> Infoeconomics -> Industrial organization -> Productivity by IT utilization
- >Top Another viewpoint from macroeconomics:
- National accounts:
- -> Investment/Saving equilibrium, & Liquidity preference/Money supply equilibrium (IS/LM model) -> Growth theory -> Industry structure theory
-> Informatization of industry or industrialization of information
- Productivity = IT + Organization (review of workflow)
- Integrating the above, growth accounting analysis and production function analysis -> Information Economy (new)
- Information Economy unit in OECD
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1.情報経済学への道のり:
- １つの流れ：
ミクロ経済学の市場均衡論
- →情報経済学
- →さらに産業組織論で、IT導入による生産性
- もう一つの流れ：
マクロ経済学のIS-LM分析
- →成長論
- →産業組織論
産業の情報化、情報の産業化
- これらが統合：
成長会計分析や生産関する分析や新たな情報経済学へ
- Macroexonomics & Microeconomics: (Fig.)
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>Top 2. Solow's Productivity Paradox:
- "We cans see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." - Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate economist - NY Times, July 12, 1987
- "You can now see computers in the productivity statistics" R. Solow - NY Times, Mar 12, 2000
- "Productivity isn't everything, but in the long run it is almost everything." - Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations -1990
- ICT in the productivity statistics: >Fig.
- Period of Solow's paradox:
from: 1959-1973
to: 1973-1995
- Period of New economy:
from: 1973-1995
to: 1995-2003
- >Top TFP (Total Factors Productivity):
- Labor Productivity (output per hour):
Output / labor Inputs
- Capital deepening ratio: (also called Capital equipment ratio)
capital per worker is increasing; measured by capital stock per labor hour.
- Multifactor productivity (MFP):
changes in output per unit of combined inputs.
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2. ソローのパラドックス:
- ITによる生産性の向上は統計には現れていない。(NY Times, 1987)
- ようやく統計上に現れた(NY Times, 2000)
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- 労働生産性
- IT資本の深化=資本投入率／労働時間
- 全要素生産性=
資本生産性+労働生産性など
- IT Productivity Statistics: (Fig.)
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>Top 3. Economic growth in less population:
- Working Age Population:
Population of working people in Japan (15-64): 
- GDP = Productivity x Population
- Differentiation of logarithm of both sides:
q = P + n
- where, q= economic growth, p= productivity growth, n= population growth
- Productivity growth = Multifactor growth + Capital deepening
- Growth rate = Demographic factor+ Productivity factor
= Labor input + Total factor productivity + Capital goods deepening + IT capital deepening + Economic cycle
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3.
人口減少下の経済成長:
- 生産年齢人口 (15-64)の推移: Fig.
- 経済成長率＝生産性上昇率＋人口増加率
- 生産性上昇率＝全要素生産性変化率＋資本深化変化率
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- 成長率＝
人口動態要因 (労働投入) ＋
生産性要因 (全要素生産性＋一般資本深化＋情報資本深化＋景気循環)
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>Top 4.
Factors of economic growth:
- Production function is:
- (1) Q = M・ Ko^α・Ki^β・(hrL)^γ
- where, Q = added value (=Output) , M = multifactor productivity, Ko = non-IT assets, Ki = IT assets, hr = working hours per employee, L = number of employees
- α, β, and γ represent income shares; α＋β＋γ=1
- Logarithmic deferentiation of the above (1) equation will be:
- (2) dQ - hdrL = dM + α(dKo - hdrL ) +β(dKi - hdrL)
- dQ - hdrL means rate of change (RC) of labor productivity
- dM means RC of multifactor growth
- α(dKo - hdrL) means RC of general capital deepening
- β(dKi - hdrL) means RC of information capital deepening
- As economic cycle, capacity utilization ratio is considered:
- (3) Q = M・ (pKo)^α・(pKi)β・(hrL)^γ
- where, p = capacity utilization ration (= utilization rate of assets
- Similarly from the (1) and (2):
- (4) dQ - hdrL = dM + α(dKo - hdrL ) +β(dKi - hdrL) + (α+β)dp
- (α+β)dp means economic cycle (=RC of capacity utilization ratio)
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4. 経済成長の要因:
- 付加価値の変化(dQ)
:対数微分をとる。
- (4)式は
労働生産性の変化率
＝全要素生産性の変化率要因
＋一般資本整備率の変化率要因
＋情報資本装備率の変化要因
＋稼働率変化要因
の４要因に分解できる。
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>Top 6.
Three factors for productivity (Distribution in corpoate size):
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企業規模分布 (小企業｜中小企業｜中堅企業｜大企業｜巨大企業)
- Chart is rewritten:
- □IT /Organization / Human resource intensively invested
- ■IT /Organization / Human resource not intensively invested
- ■■■means Low-Low-Low invested, while □□□means High-High-High.
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6.
Three factors for productivity (score):
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Only IT investment is not effective for enhancement of productivity.
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Combined investment for IT, Organization, & Human resources are mostly effective for productivity.
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>Top 7.
GDP history in 20C:
- Small difference of growth rate causes big difference in a century: Unit: USD 1990, %
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GDP per capita |
Growth per annum |
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1913 |
1998 |
GDP
growth |
Productivity growth |
| Japan |
1,387 |
20,410 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
| US |
5,301 |
27,331 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
| W- Europe |
3,473 |
17,921 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
| Argentine |
3,797 |
9.219 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
| S- Africa |
1,602 |
3,858 |
3.4 |
1.0 |
| World |
1,510 |
5,709 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
- Source: Maddison, 2001, & Shinozaki, 2005b
- Japan, as only non-Western country, could be modernized in 1868.
- Argentine and South Africa was richer than Japan in 1913; caused by mostly the difference of productivity.
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7. 20世紀の世界史が示唆するもの:
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>Top 8. Gap between transitional period:
- Gap problem in transitonal period:
- Cases of East - West Germany
- and North - South Korea:
- Gap (a) is small gap within the same trend of wave, but gap (b) will be bigger when missing to catch the next trande of wave.
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8. 転換期の格差:
- 東西ドイツや南北朝鮮の格差のケース
- Gap (a) は同じトレンドの波の中の格差であるのに対し、Gap (b)は次のトレンドの波に乗り遅れた場合の格差でさらに大きくなる。
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